Börsipäev 4. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Et üks kvartal lõppes ja uus algas ei andnud turgudele erilist põhjust oma suhtumist muuta, kui Stoxx 600 loovutas -1,1% taas eesotsas finantsidega, mis odavnesid -2,7% ning S&P 500 jõudis -2,85%lise kukkumisega karuturgu märkivale -20% piirile, mida paljud Euroopa ja arenevate turgude indeksid on juba ületanud. Iseloomulikult ka varasematele jõulisema müügisurvega päevadele, kujunes ka eile NYSE käive keskmisest suuremaks, kui omanikku vahetas 5,91 miljardit aktsiat – selle aasta üheksandaks kõrgeima käibega päev.
Hirmu ja mureallikad on seotud jätkuvalt Kreekaga, kes eile teatas, et ei suuda ettenähtud defitsiidieesmärke planeeritud kärpemeetmetega täita, kuna majandus on arvatust sügavamas languses. Perifeeriariikidest tulevad negatiivsed uudised on viimasel ajal suurendanud hirmu ka tugevamate Euroopa riike pärast, kelle potentsiaalne abistamise kulu on tõstnud näiteks Saksmaa viieaastase CDSi uue rekordtasemeni.
Seda, kuidas lahendada eurotsooni kriisi, arutatakse täna edasi Ecofini kohtumisel, kuigi midagi radikaalselt uut sealt ei oodata. Makro poole pealt on fookuses USA tehaste tellimuste augusti muutus (kell 17.00) ja Bernanke kõne majandusväljavaate teemal.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel poole protsendi jagu kõrgemal, Euroopa on aga avanemas ca 1,5%lise kaotusega. -
Eile oli üheks oluliseks sündmuseks USA esindajatekojas toimunud hääletus, millega otsustati alustada terve nädal kestev debatt, kus arutatakse võimalikke seadusandlikke meetmeid, et survestada oma valuutat odavana hoidvaid riike (eesotsas Hiinaga). Reutersilt:
U.S. senators voted on Monday to open a week of debate on the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011, which would allow the U.S. government to slap countervailing duties on products from countries found to be subsidizing their exports by undervaluing their currencies.
U.S. lawmakers, eyeing 2012 elections, said the undervaluing of China's currency had cost American jobs and that a fairer exchange rate would help cut an annual trade gap of $250 billion.
Monday's vote bolsters prospects for the bill to clear the Senate later this week, but prospects for action in the House of Representatives are murky.
If the bill did clear both chambers, it would present President Barack Obama with a tough decision on whether to sign the popular legislation into law and risk a trade war with Beijing, or veto it to pursue a more diplomatic approach.
Hiina hoiatas omalt poolt, et USA tegevus võib viia ulatusliku kaubandussõjani ja plaanitavad meetmed ei aita USA-l oma probleemidest üle saada:The bill to be debated in the United States this week violates World Trade Organization rules and forcing the yuan to appreciate would weaken joint efforts to revive the global economy, the foreign ministry said.
"By using the excuse of a so-called 'currency imbalance', this will escalate the exchange rate issue, adopting a protectionist measure that gravely violates WTO rules and seriously upsets Sino-U.S. trade and economic relations," foreign ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said in a statement posted on China's official government website (www.gov.cn) on Tuesday.
China's central bank said in a statement that the bill failed to address the underlying issues in the U.S. economy.
"The yuan bill passed by the U.S. senate will not solve its problems, such as insufficient savings, high trade deficit and high unemployment rate, but it may seriously affect the whole progress of China's reform of its yuan exchange rate regime and may also lead to a trade war which we would not like to see."
Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang said the United States was trying to pass on the blame for its own failings.
"Trying to turn domestic disputes onto another country is both unfair and in violation of standard international rules, and China expresses its concern," he said in a statement issued on the ministry's website. -
Hispaania töötute armee kasvas septembris 95800 inimese võrra, mis oli oodatust üle kahe korra enam ning märkis 2,3%list kasvu võrreldes augustiga ja 5,2%list kasvu võrreldes aastataguse perioodiga.
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Aastasel baasil ja hooajaliselt korrigeeritud USA automüük oli septembris 13,1 miljonit, mis on kõrgeim alates aprillist. Müüki toetasid eelkõige kastiga sõidukite menu tänu hooajalistele teguritele ja suurematele soodustustele (+10% vs terves sektoris -3,5% YoY). Kokkuvõttes igati korralikud numbrid eriti arvestades seda, et jaapani autotootjate müüginumbreid rusub jätkuvalt varude madal tase, mida pole suudetud vaatamata enam-vähem taastunud tootmisele vajalikule tasemele tõsta. Seega potentsiaalselt võinuks eelmise kuu müüginumbrid veelgi paremad olla, haakudes laias laastus autotootjate ja varustajate kommentaaridega, et hetkel näe nad põhjust selle ja järgmise aasta ootusi kärpida.
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Standard & Poor’s alandas Euroopa majanduskasvu prognoose teist korda viimase viie nädala jooksul, viidates halvenevale ärikliimale ja USA majanduskasvu aeglustumisele. Reitinguagentuur ootab eurotsooni majanduskasvuks järgmisel aastal 1.1% vs varasem prognoos 1.5%. Suurbritannia majanduskasvu ootust korrigeeriti 1.8% pealt 1.7% peale.
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esimene pääsuke
BRUSSELS, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Belgium and France will take action if necessary on Franco-Belgian bank Dexia , Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders said on Tuesday.
"We have seen some possible action from the two governments, France and Belgium, but first we need to read all the proposals coming from the bank and if it is needed we will act," Reynders said on the sidelines of a meeting of European finance ministers in Luxembourg.
turg veidi üles -
Öeldakse, et esimene pääsuke kevadet ei too. Või midagi sellist
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Pangad hakkavad mängima nüüd head ja halba võmmi:)
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TISI +4.3%, UBS +2.6% (expects to report a modest net profit for the Group and positive net new money in its wealth management businesses for the 3Q11).
M&A news: YHOO +3.5% (continued M&A speculation, reports indicating potential joint bid), KCI +0.6% (discloses plan to consummate the merger at the previously announced acquisition price of $68.50 per share).
A few airline related names rebounding: AMR +10.6% (Allied Pilots Association issues statement regarding pilot retirements and financial condition of American Airlines; CNBC reported that AMR said speculation about a court supervised restructuring is certainly not their goal or their preference; upgraded to Mkt Outperform from Mkt Perform at Rodman & Renshaw), UAL +1.9%, LCC +1.5%.
Other news: SOMX +47.5% (announces FDA feedback on Silenor OTC regulatory pathway and changes to commercial team), MCP +6.9% (higher on reports indicating co will announce rare earth discovery), STP +4.7% (modestly rebounding), S +2.9% (speculation surrounding iPhone ahead of Apple conference).
Analyst comments: SODA +3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), ERIC +1.4% (Ericsson upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), DFS +0.6% (coverage assumed with a Buy at Jefferies). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DB -4.2%, (sees Q3 results for CB&S business to come in significantly lower than expected; sees EUR900 mln of exposure to Greek debt; to make EUR250 mln impairment to Greek debt in Q3).
Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -5.3%, LYG -4.6%, PUK -4.5%, GNW -4.2%, HBC -1.7%, CS -1.6%, BCS -2%, STD -1.4%, C -1.2%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -3.6%, WFT -3.3%, CHK -3.2%, RDS.A -2.1%, BP -1%.
A few China internet related names are under pressure: DANG -7.5%, YOKU -4.6%, SINA -3%, BIDU -2.7%, SOHU -1.3%.
Other news: EK -9.7% (continued weakness on bankruptcy concerns), FIG -5.2% (files $1 bln mixed securities shelf offering), GMR -5% (announces amendments to credit facilities, downgraded to Sell from Hold at Cantor Fitzgerald), CAST -1.9% (clarifies issues regarding shareholder letter on its investor website), CAG -1.2% (files mixed securities shelf offering).
Analyst comments: RVBD -1.9% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays), CLI -3% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), AXP -2.3% (assumed with a Hold at Jefferies), COF -2% (assumed with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $40 from $52) -
Dahlman Rose on alustanud täna uuesti MCP katmist. Reits Buy & 120 PT.
Dahlman Rose notes it has been reported that Molycorp has "rediscovered" a heavy rare earth deposit in Southern California. The rediscovery is a positive step in the efforts to loosen the Chinese stranglehold on heavy rare earth elements. Permitting and regulatory concerns should not be an issue at the Southern Californian deposit. -
Wynn Resorts upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura
Target $175, samuti väljas öösel avalddatud Macau numbrid +39% y/y
Bloombergis artikkel Yahoo kohta.
Yahoo! to see a potential joint bid, according to reports -
Forest Oil (FST) tegi eile läbi ~40% kukkumise ning lõpetas päeva $8.89. Võib pakkuda huvitavaid liikumisi.
As mentioned earlier Canaccord Genuity upgraded FST to Buy from Hold and lowered their tgt to $22 from $30 saying with FST shares underperforming peers by ~40% this year, they believe value expectations have been sufficiently reset as they feel the stock now offers ~40% greater equity value upside potential than the group. -
Sa ikka põhjust vaatasid?
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August Factory Orders -0.2% vs -0.1% Briefing.com consensus
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Bernanke samuti kriitiline Hiina suunas:
BERNANKE: REITERATES THAT CHINA'S YUAN SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED. CHINA CURRENCY POLICY IMPEDING GLOBAL RECOVERY
BERNANKE: CHINA CURRENCY POLICY 'CERTAINLY A NEGATIVE'. -
ymeramees
Sa ikka põhjust vaatasid?
Noh ,mis siis viga on ,idee ju töötas?
6% plussi on päris hea.
Pane ise kah midagi üles. -
krookus
ymeramees
Sa ikka põhjust vaatasid?
Noh ,mis siis viga on ,idee ju töötas?
6% plussi on päris hea.
Pane ise kah midagi üles.
Sind paljundada saab? Loomaaias annaks sellega kiskjate toiduprobleemid lahendada. -
ymeramees
krookus
ymeramees
Sa ikka põhjust vaatasid?
Noh ,mis siis viga on ,idee ju töötas?
6% plussi on päris hea.
Pane ise kah midagi üles.
Sind paljundada saab? Loomaaias annaks sellega kiskjate toiduprobleemid lahendada.
Mis sind alailma kotib?
Hambad valutavad? -
Mis põhjustas lõviosa eilsest miinusest. On see taastuv?
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Pole taastuv ilmselt ,aga see polegi ju tähtis.
Idee oli upg. pealt tehtav -
IMAX Signs Revenue Share Deal in China With CJ CGV Holdings, Ltd
Hiinas lisandumas 15 IMAXI kino -
Sellest kellaajast (15:57) käis läbi $9.00 - $9.50 5000 aktsiat. Mitu sa neist ostsid?
Peale seda avanes $9.87, mille järgi lootusetult $9-sse kukkus.
Ah jaa, turg muutis suunda, osa kukkumist on juba tagasi teinud.
Järsku aitaksid ikka loomaaeda? -
Reuters, quoting Nikkei, reports that the Japanese govt is considering purchasing additional bonds issued by Europe's bailout fund
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GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERKEL: REMAINS OPPOSED TO JOINT EURO-AREA BONDS. EURO-AREA DEBT REDUCTION WILL TAKE 'MANY YEARS'.
MERKEL: EUROPE MUST SOLVE DEBT CRISIS JOINTLY. EURO-AREA 'SOLIDARITY' CHEAPER THAN GOING IT ALONE.
MERKEL SUGGESTS EU RIGHT TO BLOCK NATIONAL BUDGETS. EU NEEDS 'MORE EUROPE' NOT LESS. -
First Solar: Germany's Merkel says relation between subsidies (solar energy) and contribution to energy provision is 'far from rational thinking'
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Euro Currency Trust: CNBC, quoting WSJ, is saying Dexia mgmt to set up bad bank with approx EUR 180 bln in assets
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Markets continue to rally following FT story that EU officials are looking at a bank recapitalization plan; comments from EU's Rehn, Germany's Schauble and U.K.'s Osborne were all supportive of a plan to be put in quickly to ease market concerns
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Moody's langetas Itaalia reitingut kolme pügala võrra A2 peale.
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Siis on ju taas tänaseks olemas suurpärane põhjus, miks Euroopa börsid alla kihutamist jätkavad. Itaalia probleemide nihutamist ettepoole oli ju küll oodata, aga kõik need pisikesed liigutused reitingute ja negatiivsete kommentaaridega reastuvad aegteljel imekenasti aktsiate hindade allapoole surumiseks. Mitte et rahvusvaheline vandenõu siin taga just oleks, aga no on küll kummaline see pilt, kui vaadata nt. kevadest alates. Näide- saab USA oma kauaoodatud võlapiiri nihutatud 05.08 õhtuks, kui samal päeval, kohe peale seda, tema reitingut alandatakse.
