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Börsipäev 12. oktoober

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Pärast võimsat rallit esmaspäeval kujunes eilne päev oluliselt rahulikumaks. Erilisi uudiseid polnud ning S&P 500 lõpetas sisuliselt nullis. Slovakkia hääletas EFSFi vastu, kuid USA indeksite futuurid ja liikumised Aasia turgudel näitavad, et see oli mingil määral oodatud ja et tõenäoliselt ei tähenda see ka EFSFi plaani hääbumist, kui hääletamise teine ring peaks Slovakkias toimuma nädala lõpus. Isegi kui öeldakse uuesti „ei“, on ikkagi raske uskuda, et Slovakkia tõmbab oma otsusega vee peale viimastel kuudel toimunud poliitilistele jõupingutustele ülejäänud euroala riikide poolt. Küll loob see ohu negatiivseks reaktsiooniks turgudel ja võib-olla vajaduse võlakirjaturgude toetamise suurendamiseks EKP poolt, ent tihtilugu turgude tekitatav surve sunnib ametnikke ka kiiresti meelt muutma.

    ELi, EKP ja IMFi ametnike sõnul peaks Kreeka siiski saama järgmise laenueraldise novembri alguses, mis aitab vältida riigi kohest pankrotti. Kuid sellega on rahavajadus kaetud kõigest aasta lõpuni ning küsitavus riigi pikaajalise maksevõimelisuse osas hoiab antud teemat kuumana ka edaspidi.

    Tänasest makrost võiks välja tuua Suurbritannia tööturustatistika kell 11.30, eurotsooni augustikuu tööstustoodangu muutuse kell 12.00 ja FOMC eelmise kohtumise protokolli kell 21.00.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel nullis ning Euroopa on avanemas poole protsendi jagu madalamal. Enne turgu raporteerib oma majandustulemused muuhulgas Pepsi.
  • Üks sektor, millel läheb vaatamata kartustele jätkuvalt hästi, on lukskaupade tootjad. UK päritolu Burberry raporteeris täna majandusaasta esimese poole tulemused, lüües 29% 830 miljoni naelani kasvanud käibega 815 miljoni naela suurust ootust.
  • UK-s töötuabiraha taotlused septembris oodatust madalamad aga töötusemäär on tõusnud juulis lõppenud kolme kuu 7,9% pealt augustis lõppenud kolme kuu 8,1% peale (15 aasta kõrgeim tase). Nael on siiski tuge saamas, sooritades uudiste järgselt 0,5%lise hüppe 1,5681 dollarile.

    UK ILO UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 8.1%, ABOVE PREDICTED 8.0%
    UK JOBLESS CLAIMS 17.5 K IN SEPTEMBER, BELOW EXPECTED 24.0K. CLAIMANT COUNT RATE UP 5%, AS PREDICTION..
  • Eurotsooni augusti tööstustoodangu kasv kiirenes augustis vastupidiselt ootustele. Tegelik YoY kasv oli 5,3% vs prognoositud 2,1%. Lisaks revideeriti juuli näitaja 4,2% pealt 4,4% peale.
  • Ehk kui me kõrvutame tegeliku tööstustoodangu selle infoga, mida peegeldavad küsitlused, siis näeme, et käärid on juulis ja augustis kasvanud.
  • EUR/USD on viimaste päevadega teinud võimsa tagasituleku dollari suhtes, tugevnedes tasemelt $1,3150 nädal tagasi praeguseks 1,3800 dollarile ehk ca 5%
  • ING kommentaar tänasele eurotsooni datale:

    This is a pleasant surprise and may reduce fears that Eurozone economic activity might have contracted in the third quarter. Indeed, even if industrial production were to drop by -2.0% MoM in September, it would still expand by around 0.8% QoQ in Q3 as a whole, consistent with a 0.15 percentage point contribution to GDP growth.

    That said, the sharp monthly swings visible in the national data (e.g. Portugal: +8.2% and Italy: +4.3%) suggest that difficulties in seasonal adjustment might be blurring the picture – we would not exclude downward revisions.

    Either way, the recent surge in the inventory to new orders ratio points to cuts in production over the next few months. Although an economic contraction in Q3 might be averted, the risk of a recession (later down the road) remains high.
  • Majanduse pöördepunktide juures on päris naljakas neid analüütikuid lugeda. Buumi aegadel kommenteeritakse oodatust halvemat data-t, et numbrid on küll halvad, kuid pikemas perspektiivis ei tohiks need siiski nii halvaks jääda ja ees on ikka helge tulevik. Kehvadel aegadel aga räägitakse, et numbrid on küll oodatus palju paremad, kuid kõik võib veel ikka väga halvasti minna jne. Intertsil ja oma varasemate ennustuste tõestamise jõud on ikka suur :-)
  • PepsiCo prelim $1.31 vs $1.29 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $17.58 bln vs $17.15 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    PEP reaffirms its target for high-single-digit EPS growth on a core, 52-week basis, including an estimated foreign exchange translation benefit of ~1 percentage point (down from 2% pts), from its fiscal 2010 core EPS of $4.13
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ASML +3.9%, NSR +3.6% (also to acquire TARGUSinfo; network addressing, routing and policy management company for ~$650 million in cash), INFY +3.5% (ticking higher), PEP +1.2%.

    Select financial related names showing strength: BNS +9.2%, NBG +8.8%, BCS +5%, DB +4%, CS +2.9%, UBS +2%, BAC +2%, HBC +1.9%, .

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher:
    MT +4.5%, BHP +2.9%, BBL +2.5%, SLV +2.2%, RIO +2%, GLD +1.3%, .

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: STO +3.4%, BP +2.4% (reports out yesterday indicate that Halliburton not allowed to add claims against BP over Gulf oil spill), TOT +2%.

    A few China internet related names trading modestly higher: YOKU +3.7%, SINA +2.1%, BIDU +1.2%, SOHU +1.1%.

    Other news: LIZ +17.6% (light volume, Liz Claiborne to sell Liz Claiborne and Monet brands to J.C. Penney and Kensie brand to Bluestar Alliance; completed the sale of its Dana Buchman brand, for total cash proceeds of approx $328 mln), FRO +10.6% (still checking), TEL +6.8% (will replace Cephalon in the S&P 500 index), ONXX +6.5% (disclosed that it has agreed to settle and dismiss all claims related to the complaint filed by Onyx against Bayer), TTM +3.3% (still checking), NVS +1.3% (outpacing other Euro drug names, still checking).

    Analyst comments: NOK +2.9% (upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at Nomura), IACI +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), SNDK +1.4% (named Top Pick at RBC Capital), WFC +0.9% (initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SURG -12.3% (thinly traded), PWER -9.9%, EXFO -4.7% (light volume), AA -3.7%, HST -3.2%, JCI -0.5%.

    Other news: CHKM -5% (announced a 10 mln common unit offering by selling shareholder Global Infrastructure Partners).

    Analyst comments
    : BRCD -4.5% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), VPRT -2.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), FSLR -2.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Ticonderoga ), PCX -1.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman), WDR -1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), CFR -0.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Sterne Agee).
  • Struggling to Find Entries
    By
    James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Oct 12, 2011 | 8:50 AM

    It is the direction and not the magnitude which is to be taken into consideration.
    --Thomas Paine

    It is a bit difficult to believe be we have yet another "Europe is saved" rally kicking in this morning. What is rather humorous is the headline from the Associated Press: "Markets Buoyed by Slovakia Revote Hopes." We never saw any big selloff on the failure of the first Slovakia vote in the first place and it was already quite clear that they would keep on voting until the measure is passed, so maybe the word "buoyed" is a bit of an overstatement.

    There are other things going on in Europe that probably account for the optimism, but the end result is that we have a continuation of the recent upside momentum as optimism about a European solution builds.

    Unfortunately the technical conditions are making it quite challenging even if you are bullish. The indices consolidated slightly yesterday but it wasn't enough to relieve the overbought and extended conditions. Once again we are seeing our old buddy, the "V"-shaped bounce.

    I've written about "V"-shaped bounces dozens of times since the bottom in March 2009. It has been the one characteristic of the market that has changed the most since the crash of 2008. For a variety of reasons the market has had a much greater tendency to bounce straight up without any pullbacks or consolidation. It is not the sort of behavior that classic technical analysis tends to anticipate, but I believe that market conditions have been changed by things like high-frequency trading, ETFs, quantitative easing and the carry trade.

    Regardless of the reasons for the frequency of this lopsided action, our job is to find a way to deal with it. It has been the most challenging aspect of the market for me for some time, because my bread and butter has always been "good" setups. The setups that I like the most simply don't develop when we never have any dips.

    So what do you do when you are bullish but underinvested while the market is running away to the upside? Either you stay patient and be selective, or you do some chasing. I'm generally not a big fan of chasing, but there's something to be said for simply putting money to work even when the entries are not ideal.

    Obviously when you chase strength you run the risk of being caught in a quick reversal, but if the market really is in a sustained uptrend you will eventually be bailed out. In fact, chasing with the intention of averaging in on pullbacks is probably a good way to put some money to work if you are feeling confident that the market has put in a solid low.

    I wrote the other day that I was optimistic about the chances of a year-end rally as some good earnings reports roll out and we enter the seasonally most positive time of the year. Unfortunately the market has done nothing but go straight up since then, which has left many nascent bulls like myself woefully underinvested.

    In her column this morning Helene Meisler discussed the potential for a head-and-shoulders bottom formation in the market. That really would be an ideal setup -- it would give us some sort of pullback as that right shoulder is formed -- but the big problem of this market for so long is that it never makes those entries easy.

    I'm longer-term bullish but am struggling with the lack of entries after some very lopsided action. I'm not alone, which means the dip-buyers will be out there and may keep pullbacks shallow.

    We'll see if the bears have any luck fading early strength today. They have been trying to catch a top for days now without much success, and the end result is they just keep the upside momentum going. We are still extended and in need of a rest, but that has been a signal to just keep on going. If we do dip there should be plenty of bulls looking to put some cash to work.
  • Vaatamata sellele, et eile polnud minu teada ühtegi püha, mis oleks käivet kuidagi piiranud, siis NYSE volume jäi sama madalaks nagu Columbus Day'l. Täna on turg alustamas protsendise tõusuga ja eks näis, kas käibe osas olukord paraneb.
  • SINA tgt cut to $92.90 from $165 at Citigroup
  • Kreeka rahandusministeeriumi töötajad plaanivad 9-päevast streiki, mis peaks algama 17. oktoobril vahendab Bloomberg.
    Väga vastutustundlik seltskond paistab olevat. Reaalsustajuga ikka tõsiseid probleeme.
  • Dow on siis praeguse seisuga aasta algusest jälle rohelises.
  • Twitter: Alexander Stubb
    Barroso presents 5 points on how to solve the sovereign debt crisis. The Commission strengthening its role and presence. Excellent!

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