Börsipäev 13. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Riskisentimenti paranemine jätkus eile, mida peegeldas ca 1-2% tõus USA ja Euroopa aktsiaturgudel ning AUDi ja NZDi tugevnemine. Makro poole pealt aitas oodatust parem eurotsooni augusti tööstustoodangu muutus ja meediasse imbunud kommentaarid, mille kohaselt ei vaja Prantsusmaa oma pankade rekapitaliseerimiseks EFSFi raha. Lisaks on kasvanud ootused, et Slovakkial õnnestub teises hääletuses EFSFi täiendavad volitused ratifitseeritud.
Pärast üsna närust augusti- ja septembrikuud on oktoober vähemalt siiani kujunenud aktsiainvestoritele suhteliselt soodsaks. Dow Jones on käesoleva kuuga tõusnud 5,6% ning aasta alguse tasemest ollakse allpool kõigest 0,5%. Mitmel pool Euroopas aga näitavad indeksid veelgi paremaid oktoobrikuu tootluseid (CAC ja DAX ca +8%).
Tehniliselt on aga S&P 500 kaubelnud juba augustikuu algusest kindlas vahemikus ning vaadates kasvõi eilset päeva, siis erinevalt varasemast kujunes päeva lõpp suhteliselt nõrgaks, tehes tipu ära 1220 punktise vastupanutaseme juures ning kaotades seejärel kiiresti poole oma 2%lisest tõusust. Vastupanutasemest läbimurdmine väga ei imestaks, kuna sellise ralli järel on turul tõenäoliselt järjest rohkem neid, kes sooviksid kaasa sõita ja seetõttu kasutavad nõrkushetki ostmiseks. Ise arvan, et lähiajal võidakse pigem veidi õhku välja lasta.
S&P 500
Kuna viimastel päevadel on jäänud makrouudiste voog suhteliselt tagasihoidlikuks, siis ka see on mingil määral soodustanud üles liikumist. Tänane ja homne kalender võiksid juba jõulisemalt sentimenti juhtida. Täna on eelkõige fookuses USA möödunud nädala esmaste töötuabiraha taotluste number, mis tuleb avaldamisele kell 15.30.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,2% punases ning Euroopa on samuti avanemas 0,3% madalamal. -
Täna avaldatud Hiina kaubandustatistika oli oodatust pisut nõrgem, peegeldades muu maailma nõrgenevat makropilti ja monetaarpoliitika karmistamist kodus. Kaubandusbilanss oli septebris jätkuvalt korralikult plussis (14,5 miljardi dollariga), kuid ekspordi kasv oli madalaim alates veebruarist ja impordi kasv madalaim alates juunist. Marketwatch kirjutab veidi pikemalt.
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ECRI COO-ga Lakshman Achuthaniga oli nädalavahetuse NYTimesis lugu, kus ta sarnaselt viimastele nädalatele CNBC ja Bloombergi eetris kinnitab, et USA satub majanduslangusesse järgmise aasta alguses või isegi varem. Allolevalt jooniselt on hästi näha, et ECRI indikaator muutus negatiivseks ka eelmise aasta suvel, kuid toona tõlgendati seda kui ajutist nõrkust. Nüüd aga enam mitte.
The institute made its recession call only after an array of economic indicators showed a “pronounced, pervasive and persistent” downturn consistent with a recession, he says. By contrast, in the summer of 2010, when some market bears interpreted the decline in one of the institute’s indexes as a signal that a recession was in the offing, the institute said the pattern pointed not to recession, but only to weakness.
Now, he says, the pattern is clear.
This time, Mr. Achuthan says, a host of leading and coincident indexes — those that suggest activity down the road, and those that measure current movements —are all pointing strongly toward recession. -
Lähemad 5 kauplemispäeva võivad olla murdelised. Lisaks Erko ülal toodud S&P-le, mis on 3x tulutult üritanud murda 1220 taset, on ka DAX ja nt OMX oluliste kohtade juures. Viimane on 2x tagasi põrganud 960 juurest.
Erko, Sa võiksid siia lisada ka DAX-i graafiku, mis on USA-st erinevalt liikunud! Nimelt on DAX olnud tõusus 11. septembrist saati ning vastupanu on 6000 juures (= praegusel tasemel).
Ise arvan, et turg võiks allapoole korrigeeruda. Kui ei, siis saab Euroopa tõus järsk ja pikk olema. -
DAX
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DAX pressis 6,000 läbi, eks näis, kus lõpetatakse.
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Mõned väljavõtted Euroopa Keskpanga äsja avaldatud igakuisest raportist:
Risks to economic outlook remain on the "downside."
Euro-zone growth will be "very moderate" in second half.
Economic outlook facing "intensified downside risks."
Non-standard measures are temporary by nature.
Inflation likely to stay clearly above 2%.
Governments must fully implement July decisions.
Liquidity provision will help Euro-zone banks. -
FT kirjutab, et mitmed Euroopa pangad pole sugugi rõõmsad selle üle, et neid sunnitakse praegusel turul kapitali tõstma, eelistades vajaliku kapitali adekvaatsuse taseme saavutamiseks pigem müüa varasid ning ähvardades protestiks keerata laenukraanid kinni. Erinevalt USA-st, kus ettevõtted tuginevad finantseerimisel 30% ulatuses pangalaenudele, siis Euroopas on see osakaal 80% ja seetõttu oleks krediidi vähendamine koheselt tuntav ka reaalmajanduses.
This radical approach, led by French banks BNP Paribas and Société Générale, would be copied by lenders across Italy, Spain and Germany, bankers said. “Why should we raise capital at these [depressed share price] levels?” said one eurozone bank boss. The average European bank’s equity is trading at only about 60 per cent of its book value. -
Varasemalt on meediast läbi jooksnud, et core tier one capital ratio peaks EBA soovil olema 9% ning et mingi hetk viiakse selle kontrollimiseks läbi järjekordne stressitest. Kuid samast artiklist jäi silma veel üks huvitav lõik...
It is unclear exactly how the 9 per cent ratio will be calculated, but several people involved in the process said it would be after taking sovereign writedowns but without the macro-economic stresses applied in the EBA’s July stress test.
Kui see tõesti nii oleks, siis uus test oleks sama küsitav nagu eelnevgi -
Itaalia 2016. aasta võlakirjade nõudluse-pakkumise suhe tänasel oksjonil 1,34 vs 1,28 eelmisel oksjonil; tulusus 5,32% vs 5,6% eelmisel korral.
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Jaapan on üks neist riikidest, mille elanikkond kiirelt vananeb ja selle probleemi leevendamiseks kaalub valitsus tõsta taas pensioniiga.
Business Insider kirjutab, et Jaapani tervishoiuminister on teinud ettepaneku tõsta pensionile mineku vanusepiiriks 70 aastat ja samal ajal on juba alustatud ka järkjärgulise pensioniea tõstmisega 60 aastalt 65 aastale.Prognooside järgi on 2040. aastaks jaapanlaste keskmine vanus 55 aastat. -
Woflgang Münchau toob oma tänases artiklis välja õige tähelepaneku, et EFSFi garantiisid jagavad hetkel ka perifeeriariigid, kellel on ise tegelikult raskusi võla tagasimaksmisega (Itaalia garantii moodustab 18%) ja seega ühel hetkel, kui muututakse abiandjast abivajajaks, suurenevad teiste kohustused ning üks dominokivi hakkab teise järel langema.
If you double or treble the size of the EFSF without changing its underlying structure,all you do is double or treble the lack of credibility. If you really want to increase the size of the EFSF without destroying it, then you are left with two options: you have to back it through an unlimited guarantee by the ECB, the only organ in the eurozone that is in a position to give such a commitment. Or you have to change the EFSF’s legal status through the adoption of joint and several liability. This means that member states jointly agree everybody’s debt. The two options ultimately mean the same. The liabilities of the system will be shared jointly by all of its participants. If you want to annoy certain people, you could also call the latter a eurobond.
But without even a faint prospect of a fiscal union, any increase in the size of national liabilities is politically and financially unsustainable. Just look at what happen in Slovakia this week, where the parliament vote against the ratification of the latest and comparatively modest EFSF treaty, forcing the resignation of the prime minister. This will not be the last political upset. So far, nobody has even transferred a single euro cent across their borders. Just imagine the politics and the financial contagion, once your doubled or treble guarantees fall due. -
Veel Itaalia võlakirja tänasest oksjonist:
Italy's bond auction was supported by the European Central Bank, which stepped in after the sale was complete to mop up unwanted bonds. The Italian treasury wanted to sell €6.5bn of bonds but found it could shift only €6.2bn and at a premium 5.87% yield for 10-year bonds. The yield, which determines the effective interest rate, was the highest the ECB has paid for Italian debt since it became a buyer in August, according to Reuters.
Last month a major sale of Italian debt found very few buyers. It was the worst auction for more than 10 years in terms of the number of bidders. -
JPM tulemused oodatust paremad
JPMorgan Chase prelim $1.02 vs $0.94 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $24.37 bln vs $23.27 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
JPM ootab aasta lõpuks S&P-le taset 1475... Eile Bloombergis kinnitas, et sellega ei ole probleemi ja nad jäävad enda juurde.
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JPM tulemused oodatust paremad?
Mis, teil on mingi pisiblufi käsiraamat, kuidas JPM tulemusi minutiga hinnata? -
ymeramees
JPM tulemused oodatust paremad?
Mis, teil on mingi pisiblufi käsiraamat, kuidas JPM tulemusi minutiga hinnata?
olles korrektsem, siis headline numbrid on paremad -
ymeramees
JPM tulemused oodatust paremad?
Mis, teil on mingi pisiblufi käsiraamat, kuidas JPM tulemusi minutiga hinnata?
•JPMorgan Chase reported a profit of $4.26 billion, or $1.02 per share.
•Revenues was flat at $24.36 billion.
•Analysts expected an EPS of 91 cents per share on revenues of $23.39 billion
Sul on miski käsitlus, et 1.02 ei ole parem kui 0.91? :) -
Neile, kes DNDN käekäigul endiselt silma peal hoiavad, võiks huvi pakkuda tänane Goldman Sachsi analüüs.
Nimelt on analüütikud küsitlenud 50 uroloogi, jõudmaks selgusele, kas Provenge aeglane kasutuselevõtu tempo on tingitud nõudluse puudusest või lihtsalt takerdunud teistel põhjustel.
Provenge has real demand: Key thought leaders view it as standard of care. 88% of surveyed physicians plan to use Provenge, expecting to use it in 22% of patients in the next 12 months. But significant challenges to
broad adoption remain: Providers cite reimbursement, logistical challenges, and the need to embrace changes in treatment paradigm.
Küsitluse tulemusel selgus, et Provengel on olemas reaalne nõudlus ja 88% küsitlutest kavatsevad järgmise aasta jooksul ravimi ka kasutusele võtta. Kuid üle tuleb saada mitmetest erinevatest takistustest ja kitsaskohtadest.
For demand to be monetized, execution needs to improve. A year after Provenge’s launch, marketing and logistical support for it is widely viewed as average by providers; we think it needs to be superior to drive adoption for this complex drug. Separately, large urology practices have not been the key focus (which we see as the biggest potential users for Provenge).
Aasta peale ravimi turule tulekut võib nii turunduse kui logistika vallas etteheiteid kuulda ja seetõttu ütlevad analüütikud, et selles osas peab kindlasti olukord paranema.
With appropriate execution, Provenge could be a $1bn-plus drug. Even with several challenges, Provenge’s annualized run rate is above $260 mn, on par with major oncology drug launches. We believe that with better
reimbursement and execution, the demand could triple or quadruple, putting the drug at $1 bn or more. While the margins on the drug are clearly low, we believe its offset is the long terminal value. We see DNDN
as a potential M&A candidate given these dynamics.
Goldmani analüütikud usuvad, et kui vead saavad parandatud, siis võiks Provenge siiski olla üle miljardi dollari ravim ja nõudlus võiks kolme- või isegi neljakordistuda. Ühtlasi nähakse DNDN endiselt ka hea ülevõtukandidaadina.
Goldmanil on aktsiale Osta reiting koos $ 14 hinnasihiga. -
Henno Viires
ymeramees
JPM tulemused oodatust paremad?
Mis, teil on mingi pisiblufi käsiraamat, kuidas JPM tulemusi minutiga hinnata?
•JPMorgan Chase reported a profit of $4.26 billion, or $1.02 per share.
•Revenues was flat at $24.36 billion.
•Analysts expected an EPS of 91 cents per share on revenues of $23.39 billion
Sul on miski käsitlus, et 1.02 ei ole parem kui 0.91? :)
Sul on mingi käsitlus, et see üks rida LOEB? -
Gapping up
M&A speculation related: AOL +4.3% (AOL CEO talks to shareholders about a sale to Yahoo, according to reports out last night), AKAM +2.7% (lifted after the close on GOOG for AKAM rumor, off highs on reports this morning indicating that GOOG denied speculation).
Other news: EK +8.1% (modestly rebounding, still checking for anything new), VRTX +4.4% (strength attributed to analyst comments suggesting IMS underestimated sales of co's hep C drug, which would ease concerns about drug's sales), ALU +3.5% (trading higher on reports that the co plans to sell its call unit), SBH +3.2% (increases size of size of public offering by 3 mln shares and prices 18 mln shares of common stock at $16.75 by CDR Investors), AONE +2.9% (continued strength), AVP +1% (positive mention at MadMoney).
Analyst comments: CYTK +9.8% (thinly traded, initiated with a Mkt Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw), RAX +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), BRCM +0.9% (light volume, upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird). -
ZH poolt ülevaade JPMorgani tulemuste saamisest:
A quick look at the JPM earnings this morning would indicate all is well and that the company beat on the top and the bottom line: after all the company generated $23.76 billion in revenue on expectations of $23.26 and EPS of $1.02 relative to an expectation of $0.92. So far so good.
The only problem is that unlike in previous quarter, when the primary driver of the bottom line was releasing reserves, this quarter, when everything blew out and blew up, that would have been seen as massively disingenuous, even by such permaclown as Dick Bove (which nonetheless did not stop the bank regardless, and JPM did take a $170 million reserve release, granted less than the $1.2 billion in Q2). So what does JPM do? Why it pulls the "Fair Value Option" card, discussed recently in the context of Morgan Stanley when we speculated whether the bank's biggest asset was their debt.
Turns out we had the concept right, but the bank wrong, because $0.29 of EPS Net Income, or $1.9 billion pretax, was a "benefit from debit valuation adjustment (“DVA”) gains in the Investment Bank, resulting from widening of the Firm’s credit spreads." That's right: the fact that JPM spreads blew out in the quarter, and its default risk soared, for one reason or another actually served to "generate" not only net income but also revenue! And now you see why American banks can never lose - in a good quarter, they release reserves; in a bad quarter they take FVO benefits in the form of Debit Valuation Adjustments, or in this case both! Winner, winner, always a chicken dinner for Jamie Dimon. Expect every other bank to do the same accounting BS this quarter to pad their numbers. -
Initial Claims 404K vs 406K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 405K from 401K
Contnuing Claims falls to 3.67 mln from 3.725 mln
August Trade Balance -$45.6 bln vs -$46.1 bln Briefing.com consensus -
Fitch Ratings lowers UK support rating floors; downgrades Lloyds, RBS to 'A'
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SMSI -15.9% (ticking lower), FCS -7.7%, UFPI -4.1% (light volume), JPM -1.2%, OZRK -0.7%.
Select financial related names lower: LYG -5.3%, BCS -3.6%, BBVA -2.9%, C -2.7% (looking to sell EMI as separate businesses, according to reports), UBS -2.4%, DB -1.9%, HBC -1.7%, MS -1.5%, GS -1.5%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: BBL -2%, MT -2%, FCX -1.8%, EGO -1.7%, RIO -1.6% (reports Q3 operational results; produces global iron ore production of 64 mln tonnes, +5% YoY), SLV -1.6%, GOLD -1.5%, BHP -1.3%, GDX -1.3%, GLD -0.5%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -1.7%, HAL -1.6%, OXY -1.5%, SD -1.4%, BP -1.3% (BP joint venture TNK-BP shareholder raises damage claims, according to reports), SLB -1.1%, RIG -0.7% (announces that an investigation confirms there is no oil leaking from sunken rig or riser), TOT -0.4%.
A few European drug names are under pressure: AZN -1.4%, NVS -0.8%.
Other news: USAT -15.6% (USA Tech ticking lower after disclosing it suspended Chairman and CEO pending the ongoing investigation), SNH -3.3% (announces proposed public offering of 6,000,000 common shares), MET -0.8% (MetLife to explore sale of MetLife Bank's Forward Mortgage Business).
Analyst comments: KR -2.2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), ADS -1.5% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust). -
Doug Kass oli eile Yahoo! Finance eetris jagamas kommentaare oma turunägemuse kohta. Link
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One-Way Train Keeps A-Rollin'
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Oct 13, 2011 | 8:38 AM
"Seize the day, and put the least possible trust in tomorrow." --Horace
The market has had an impressive run the past week, jumping more than 10% from the recent lows. There is just one big problem: it can't be trusted.
The entire move has the feel of a low-volume, oversold bounce that has kept going because of poorly positioned, overly negative market players who are being squeezed by aggressive high-frequency and computerized trading. Volume has been light the whole way, and there's very little in the way of any strong leadership.
It is never easy to be very trusting of light-volume V-shaped bounces, but this one has been even more challenging than usual, as we become very quickly overbought and start hitting substantial overhead resistance. We finally paused at 1120 of the S&P 500 Wednesday, but it's been a one-way ride for a week.
In addition to the lopsided action, the primary fundamental explanation for the rally is that Europe is making progress finding a solution for its banking and sovereign debt problems. Maybe so, but there are still a substantial number of obstacles to any real solution; however, the headlines have been spun in a way that makes it sound like the problems may be over soon, and that is helping to provide strong underlying support for now.
What has made this action particularly hard to trust is how lopsided and manipulated it has felt. We have not had any of the normal ebb and flow that you usually see as market players debate the pros and cons of the market. It has been a one-way train, and everyone wants to know how much further they can ride before reality sets in.
I think of this sort of action like a Ponzi scheme. There is no particular reason to trust it, but as long as there is a supply of willing buyers who are greedy and afraid of missing out, it will continue. At some point, the most recent buyers will fail to see immediate gains and panic. Then the momentum will shift, but the fear of being left behind can be a major driving force that makes these moves last far longer than seems reasonably.
I don't want to sound overly negative here because if we do pull back and consolidate, we will have a good technical setup. I am optimistic about the market action into the end of the year. We have gone up too far, too fast in the short term and that has left us with a market that doesn't have good entry points or technical setups.
One of the characteristics of the recent move that I have found most notable is how much complaining there has been about the inability to build up long inventory. It has been a joyless move for many as they struggled to find ways to put money to work. It has been even worse for the bears, who have been quick to anticipate a short-term top. This has likely created a big supply of dip buyers who will provide support, so I believe there is a good chance we won't be revisiting the recent lows any time soon.
Skepticism and lack of enthusiasm are a big reason this market has been running so hot, and high-frequency and computerized trading has done a good job of exploiting it. The selling at the close Wednesday was a very slight change in character and we have a little downside follow through this morning, so traders are going to be very watchful for momentum to fizzle out.
With the onset of earnings season today, the market is due for a change of character anyway. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported ahead of the bell and is trading down, but Google's (GOOG) report tonight will likely receive more attention. We are set up well for a sell-the-news reaction to some reports, but the shorts seem to be endlessly squeezed lately and could find themselves in trouble if they are too aggressive.
It is a very tough market to trust, but a good shakeup as earnings season rolls out should provide opportunities. -
Bloomberg TV running headlines from Credit Suisse note saying at least 66 of EU's top banks would fail the new stress test
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Market talk of a potential UK sovereign downgrade.
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Warner Bros. TV, CBS $CBS announce deal with Netflix $NFLX for CW programming
NFLX kauplemas 3% plusspoolel, $ 117 kandis. -
Slovak Parliament approves expansion of EFSF rescue fund, concludes ratification in all Euro Zone countries
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BI kirjutab et, et Soome firma Rovio Entertainment, kellele kuulub väga kuulsaks saanud mäng Angry Birds, plaanib oma firmaga järgmisel aastal börsile tulla.
Firma CMO Peter Vesterbacka ütles Bloombergile, et ettevõte on valmis IPO tegema juba homme, aga reaalselt juhtub see ilmselt aasta pärast.
Rovio Entertainmentil on 150 miljonit aktiivset kasutajat ja küsimusele, kas on ikka tark tegu minna ainult ühe tootega või antud juhul ühe mänguga firmal börsile, vastas Vesterbacka, et Disney alustas must-valge multifilmiga hiirest. -
Roivo toodete lakmustest. Solarise Apollo pood, Angry Birds nukud letil, erinevates suurustes ja konfiguratsioonis. Jään laua äärde seisma - tuttavad tegelased on. Imetlen plüüspõrsakeste-linnukeste kvaliteeti. KÕIK, kes olid paremalpool teismeiga läksid letist mööda tähelepanu pööramata. KÕIK, kes olid vasakulpool teismeiga jäid seisma, hüüatasid "vaata" / "ohoo", näppisid ja torkisid ning hakkasid nuruma "osta, osta!"
Rovio klientuur kasvab koos Rovioga. Seal on nende raha.
Sead tegid mängus tuttavat sigade-röhkimise heli. Igal linnul oli oma mängust tuttav õige heli. -
Angry Birds linnukestega ja notsukestega sussid teeksid küll maailma revolutsiooni.
Üks lauamängu tootja peaks varsti tulema Angry Birds lauamänguga turule. Põhimõte on sama. Ma parem ei räägi reaalsetest Angry Birds isetehtud tortidest. Enne söömist tuleb päriselt vastaseid rakulkast tulistada. -
Täna peale turu sulgumist teatab oma kolmanda kvartali tulemused internetihiid Google (GOOG). Kes mäletab, siis teine kvartal pakkus investoritele meeldiva üllatuse ja aktsia rallis peale tulemusi ligi 100 punkti ehk $ 625 tasemeni.
Konsensus ootab kasumiks aktsia kohta $ 8,77 ja saab näha, millist laadi üllatus aktsial täna varuks on, sest GOOG kaupleb hetkel ainult natuke kõrgemal kui kvartal tagasi. -
GOOG tulemustega väljas ja võib öelda, et investorid ei pidanud seekordki pettuma ja aktsia taaskord kauplemas $ 600 taseme all, 7,5 % plusspoolel.
Google reports Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $9.72 vs. the $8.77 Capital IQ consensus; net rev (including TAC) $7.51 bln vs. $7.21 bln consensus (558.99 +10.49)
Gross rev (excluding traffic acquisition costs) $9.72 bln vs. the $9.45 bln Capital IQ Consensus. -
MCHP
Microchip Technology Inc Guides Q2 $0.45-0.47 v $0.52e, Rev $340.6M v $362Me ($0.50-0.54, Rev $352-371M prior guidance)
http://www.streetinsider.com/Guidance/Microchip+%28MCHP%29+See+Q2+Revs+of+$340.6M+vs.+$362M+Consensus%3B+EPS+Below+Views/6855538.html
Päris karmid numbrid
