Börsipäev 19. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kuulujuttude veski jahvatab edasi, kui eilse USA turgude ralli põhjustajaks jäi Guardiani artikkel Saksamaa ja Prantsusmaa saavutatud kokkuleppest võimendada EFSF-i 2 triljoni euroni. Hiljem saabusid aga ümberlükkavad kommentaarid, mis lisaks Hispaania reitingu kärpimisele Moody’se poolt pole sarnast Wall Streeti optimismi Aasia turgudele kandnud. Ka USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel poole protsendi jagu madalamal.
Kuna turgusid juhivad rohkem arvamused ja kommentaarid Euroopa võlakriisi osas, jääb makro tegeliku plaani avaldamiseni ilmselt tagaplaanile. Mõned olulisemad sündmused tänasest päevast on Suurbritannia oktoobri kohtumise protokoll (kell 11.30), USA tarbijahinnaindeksi septembri muutus, läinud kuul alustatud elamuehituste ning väljastatud ehituslubade arv (kell 15.30). Kell 21.00 avalikustatakse Fedi oktoobri Beige Book.
Majandustulemused teatavad enne turgu BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Piper Jaffray. Pärast sulgemist aga panevad oma numbrid lauale eBay, Western Digital, Wynn Resorts. -
MS tulemustega väljas. Kui headline on muljetavaldav, siis sarnaselt teistele pankadele on tuge saadud erakorralistest teguritest.
Morgan Stanley prelim $1.14, may not compare to the vs $0.32 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $9.9 bln, including items may not compare to $7.25 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Morgan Stanley results included revenues of $3.4 Billion, or $1.12 per Diluted Share, from the Widening of Morgan Stanley's Debt-Related Credit Spreads -
Reuters kirjutab, et Saksamaal on mõningasi raskusi oma võlakirjade müümisel, kuna nõudlus pole olnud piisav. Ent see ei ole ilmselt niivõrd Euroopa võlakriisi, kuivõrd ebaatraktiivselt madala tulususe ja viimastel nädalatel paranenud riskisentimendi tõttu.
Germany sold 4.075 billion euros in its final reopening of the September 2021 bond, bringing the outstanding amount to 16 billion euros. A new January 2022 benchmark will be launched in November.
The bid/cover ratio at the sale was 1.1, below the 1.5 at the previous sale in September and the 2011 average at 10-year Bund sales of 1.61, according to Reuters data.
But with a target amount of 5 billion euros -- the Bundesbank retained 0.925 billion euros -- the 4.55 billion euros of bids drawn did not match the amount on offer.
The last 10-year auction deemed a technical failure was in July
Saksamaa 10 aastase võlakirja yield -
Erko Rebane
Morgan Stanley results included revenues of $3.4 Billion, or $1.12 per Diluted Share, from the Widening of Morgan Stanley's Debt-Related Credit Spreads [/i]
paistab olevat hea äriidee - mida kehvemini Sul läheb, seda rohkem teenid :)
meenutab veidi seda parun Münchauseni nõksu enda vuntse pidi soost välja tõstmisel, aga võib-olla ma olen lihtsalt veidi taipamatu -
Henno Viires
Erko Rebane
Morgan Stanley results included revenues of $3.4 Billion, or $1.12 per Diluted Share, from the Widening of Morgan Stanley's Debt-Related Credit Spreads [/i]
paistab olevat hea äriidee - mida kehvemini Sul läheb, seda rohkem teenid :)
meenutab veidi seda parun Münchauseni nõksu enda vuntse pidi soost välja tõstmisel, aga võib-olla ma olen lihtsalt veidi taipamatu
JPM ja BAC headline number oli tugev täpselt selle sama raamatupidamisliku võtte kasutamise tõttu. Aga niiii tore on ju, kui uudistest käib läbi korralik kasuminumber :) -
Juba eile kergitas Molycorp (MCP) aktsiahinda uudis, et Hiina kavatseb oma haruldaste muldmetallide tootmist kärpida.
Baotou Steel Rare Earth (moodustas 2010. aasta seisuga 60% Hiina kogutootmisest) teatas, et peatab haruldaste muldmetallide tootmise üheks kuuks.
Täna kirjutavad Morgan Stanley analüütikud, et tootmiskärped peaks ka hindu stabiliseerima.
Molycorp Investor Day scheduled for October 20; evidence of project de-risking should provide boost to shares. We expect updates on phase one production (targeting mid-2012 start-up), finalization of sales
contracts (targeting 75% of phase 1 volume contracted by year-end 2011), recent heavy rare earth discoveries
(higher terbium, europium, and dysprosium than the main ore body at Mountain Pass), and magnet JV.
Homme peaks toimuma MCP "Investor Day", kus analüütikud ootavad värsket infot nii lepingute kui ka uue leiukoha kohta.
Morgan Stanleyl on aktsiale Osta soovitus koos $ 90 hinnasihiga. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ABT +9.6% (also plans to separate into two companies in diversified medical products and research-based pharmaceuticals), HA +8.7%, URI +8.2%, ISRG +8%, FSII +4.7% (light volume), INTC +3.4% (also increases buyback by $10 bln), YHOO +2.6%.
Select financial related names showing strength: ING +3.7%, LYG +3%, DB +1.2%, HBC +0.8%, .
Other news: USAT +8.7% (comments on resignation of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer George Jensen), GLNG +3.3% (still checking), WMB +1.9% (Williams Cos prepares for full tax-free spinoff of E&P business by year-end 2011), ELN +1.9% (light volume, Biogen Idec and Elan presents data about early use and long-term benefit of TYSABRI), KO +0.6% (ticking higher following positive mention in Barron's, upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC).
Analyst comments: FOSL +0.6% (initiated with a Buy at Citigroup). -
September Building Permits 594K vs 610K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 625K from 620K
September Housing Starts 658K vs 595K Briefing.com consensus
September Core CPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
September CPI M/M +0.3% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PWAV -41.1% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at WJB Capital), CKP -23.6%, JAG -8.6%, CREE -7.3% (also discloses COO resigned), AAPL -5.4%, LLTC -5.3%, MAIN -2.5%, BHP -2.2% (reports Q3 exploration results), MS -1.1%, JNPR -1% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo).
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: RIO -1.8%, SLV -1.4%, GLD -1%, GLD -0.9%, MT -0.9%.
Other news: CWTR -18.9% (announces proposed public offering of common stock), AEM -7.2% (Agnico-Eagle Mines's Goldex mine to suspend production during investigation and remediation of water inflow and ground stability issue; book value of Goldex to be written off; will total $1.00/share after tax), ALU -6.5% (Permira Funds make binding offer to acquire Genesys from co, downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies), ONNN -5.7% (updates impact of Thailand flood; co believes that its SANYO Semiconductor division's Thailand operations have been severely damaged by the flood), ERIC -4.6% and ARMH -2.5% (still checking for anything specific), BIP -3.8% (to raise $500 mln in unit offering at $24.75 per L.P unit ), JBLU -2.6% (CFO resigns).
Analyst comments: RRC -3% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Canaccord), CLI -1.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at ISI Group ), GS -0.7% (downgraded to Outperform from Buy at Credit Agricole) -
Held Captive by the Headlines
ByJames "Rev Shark" DePorre
Oct 19, 2011 | 8:45 AM
Creativity is the ability to introduce order into the randomness of nature.
-- Eric Hoffer
It takes a pretty high level of creativity to make sense of this market action lately. We have a tremendous amount of volatility as we dance around to major earnings reports and rumors about the European debt situation.
It looked like earnings season was off to a rough start following the IBM (IBM) report on Monday night, but banks and homebuilders found support and, of course, we had some "Europe is saved!" news to make sure that the maximum number of folks were caught leaning the wrong way just when it looked like the market was weakening.
Overnight we had a surprisingly poor report from Apple (AAPL). A number of analysts are dismissing the earnings miss as just a timing matter due to a falloff in sales as buyers anticipated the introduction of the new iPhone, but it still is a bit surprising that analysts didn't see it coming. While the miss by Apple may not be an indication of any major fundamental problem at the company, it is a change in the normal routine of big beats and it's going to raise a few concerns.
A strong report from Intel (INTC) is helping to take the sting out of the Apple miss, but the overall reaction to earnings is quite muddled so far this morning. Unfortunately we are still intently focused on the European debt situation, and that is all that really matters. This morning we are fairly stable despite a downgrade of Spanish debt because of hope that the rumors that hit late yesterday about some sort of deal for a European rescue deal are valid. The European situation is still very uncertain, but the market seems exceedingly eager to embrace the idea of a solution even though it is going to be a very long and difficult process. I suspect the pattern of hope and doubt for a deal will continue for quite a while.
Technically the S&P 500 is sitting at the very top of the recent trading range and is dealing with significant overhead resistance. We are overbought in the short term and have a weak foundation for further upside since the volume on the recent rally has been so poor.
However we really are at the ideal place to squeeze the bears here, much like we caught the bulls at the bottom of the trading range to start October. A technical breakout that triggers buy stops and then a reverse would be in keeping with the character of this market's recent action. If too many bears are leaning against overhead resistance here -- as I think is the case -- look for some upside first before any sort of significant reversal to the downside.
What I find most troublesome about this market is the lack of leadership and little interest in individual stock-picking. Stocks continue to gyrate according to the news headlines, and you might as well just play directional moves with ETFs if you want to trade. There is very little opportunity to produce returns by buying individual stocks that are moving on their own individual merits.
I'm still hopeful that as more earnings reports roll out in the next few weeks we will see a greater focus on individual stock-picking, but the dominance of the European headlines makes it very difficult to have much confidence in charts or fundamentals right now.
Until we are less focused on Europe, trading will continue to be challenging. If you want to play, it's mostly about timing the news flow right now. I'll keep looking for individual stocks of interest but I don't expect it to be very easy until the market focus shifts away from macroeconomic concerns. -
Needham tõstab täna Citrix Systems (CTXS)-i reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 85 hinnasihiga.
We are upgrading shares of Citrix and introducing an $85 target price. We missed the early recovery in shares from the mid-50s range, but believe there remains material upside from the current $65 level. Our upgrade is based on conversations we’ve had with key CTXS partners who tell us spending on data center projects remains strong, despite the continued overhang of macro IT spending concerns. It is our view that CTXS and VMW are more resilient than other vendors in the current macro environment due to the strategic nature of their technologies, which
support cloud, virtualization, SaaS and networking.
Analüütikud põhjendavad oma reitingumuutust eelkõige sellega, et peale CTXS-i peamiste klientidega rääkimist said nad kinnitust, et nõudlus firma toodetele on endiselt tugev. Vaatamata probleemidele maailmamajanduses ning ohule, et firmad kärbivad oma kulutusi IT lahendustele, usuvad analüütikud, et CTXS ja VMW on võrreldes konkurentidega paremal positsioonil.
Industry checks signal continued spending strength. Our recent industry checks indicate spending on key areas of data center refresh remain strong: virtualization and cloud, VDI, networking (NetScaler) all remain high priorities
in IT budgets. We are further encouraged by recent VMW and EMC results, suggesting continued strength in data center project spending.
Analüütikute sõnul on teatud segmendis nõudlus endiselt tugev ja firmad selles osas kulutamisele piiranguid olulisel määral ei sea. Sellele andsid ka kinnitust VMW ja EMC head kvartalitulemused.
Nagu analüütikud isegi ütlevad on nad oma reitingumuutusega natuke hiljaks jäänud, kuna aktsia on koos turuga põhjadest rallinud juba 20%, aga teisalt pakuvad nad kinnitust, et CTXS- võtmekliendid pole oma plaane muutnud. Arvestada tuleks siiski sellega, et aktsial on juba oluline tõus seljataga ehk antud upgrade võib natuke nõrgaks jääda, aga sektori tugevus ja turu toetus võib väikese jätku tõusule anda.
Aktsia kaupleb eelturul $ 65,40 kandis, 1,4% plusspoolel. -
Tulemuste tabel ka uuendatud.
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Nelli, kas CTXS seller@65.5 on tark või loll?
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Remains to be seen :)
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Citigroup to pay $285 mln to settle SEC charges involving housing market CDOs, according to CNBC
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CTXS oli nii ja naa täna. Aktsia avanes $ 65,31 ja tegi peale avanemist kiire põrke ülespoole, käies ära ka üle $ 66 taseme. Seejärel vajus koos ülejäänud turuga $ 65 juurde tagasi ja on sealt alates tasapisi ülespoole tiksunud. Hetkel kaupleb CTXS $ 65,85 juures, 2,1% plusspoolel.
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Nelli Janson
Homme peaks toimuma MCP "Investor Day", kus analüütikud ootavad värsket infot nii lepingute kui ka uue leiukoha kohta.
Morgan Stanleyl on aktsiale Osta soovitus koos $ 90 hinnasihiga.
Teatavasti on kauplejale oluline omada tähtsat infi enne teisi.
Heidame pilgu viimasele MCP presentatsioonile ja voila! - Silmet on laienemas Poola!
Strong Buy!
:) -
CNBC, quoting the WSJ, reports that the EFSF talks are focusing on buying collateral for guarantees; EU lawyers have rejected direct EFSF guarantees
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Fitch Ratings expects U.S. residential construction activity to remain at distressed levels moving into 2012 despite recent signs of stabilization in housing starts and new home sales data
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Market drops to lows; pullback attributed to headlines that Sarkozy says Eurozone talks are stuck
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WYNN tulemused:
Wynn Resorts prelim $1.05 vs $1.16 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.3 bln vs $1.29 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Aktsia järelturul kauplemas $ 124 kandis, 10% miinuspoolel.
