Börsipäev 26. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Nii Euroopa kui ka USA aktsiaturud lõpetasid eile päris tugevas miinuses, mis oli osaliselt tingitud asjaosaliste kommentaaridest, millega seati kahtluse alla, kas tänasel Euroopa tippkohtumisel jõutakse reaalsete kokkulepete ja tegevusplaanideni. Peamise uudisena teatati, et tippkohtumise eel toimuma pidanud rahandusministrite kohtumine on ära jäetud.
Makrokalender on täna suhteliselt hõre ja kogu tähelepanu keskendub tänasele tippkohtumisele, mille kohta pole ühtegi lootustandvat uudist praeguseks hetkeks veel ilmunud. Pigem vastupidi: FT kirjutab, et tõenäoliselt jäävad tänased otsused pigem üldsõnaliseks ja midagi väga konkreetset oodata ei ole.European leaders could still complete details in the 24 hours ahead of the summit, which has already delayed a decision twice because of continued disagreements. The draft communiqué, for instance, contains gaps that are frequently filled in the hours before such summits.
But officials described mounting concerns that the summit will fall well short of market expectations. The extent of nervousness over a potential failure of eurozone leaders to reach a deal was made clear on Tuesday after European markets briefly fell sharply after European Union officials announced they had cancelled Wednesday’s scheduled meeting of all 27 EU finance ministers, which was to have laid the groundwork for the evening summit.
Aasia sessioonil avaldati Austraalia III kvartali inflatsiooninäit, mis langes aastasel baasil 10 baaspunkti võrra 3,5% peale. Eelmise kvartaliga võrreldes langes inflatsioonimäär 0,9% pealt 0,6% peale. Langenud inflatsioonisurve annab alust spekuleerida, et sealne keskpank võib eesolevatel kuudel alandada intressimäärasid. Austraalia dollar on hetkeseisuga suurim langeja, kaubeldes USA dollari vastu pool protsenti madalamal.
Euroopa sessioonil avaldatakse kell 11 Euroopa Keskpanga pankade laenutegevuse uuring. USA sessioonil ilmub kell 15.30 septembrikuu kestvuskaupade tellimuste andmed ja kell 17 uute kodude müüginäidud. Kell 19 algab oodatud Euroopa tippkohtumine Brüsselis. -
Kas keegi AMLN on jälginud? Tema diapeedi ravim peaks hiljemalt jaanuaris USA-s heakskiidu saama. Kuigi oodatud on seda ka pikkalt. Kunagi ta oli LHV radaril, kas ei peaks uuesti jälgima hakkama.
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DIAPEET - mingi uus haigus? Selle saab siis, kui vaadatakse samaaegselt diabozitiive ja süüakse beeti?
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Sorry. Suhkruhaigus siis.
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Kas see vä? Exenatide Once Weekly
http://www.amylin.com/research/pipeline/exenatide.htm
Korra on saanud FDA-lt saba, läksid uuele katsele, kui saavad heakskiidu, siis lennuk. Kord nädalas ennast süstida on diabeetikule taevamanna. -
Diapeet on insuliiniga lahjendatud diabeet.
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Riskikartlikkus on tugevdanud CHF-i ja JPY, viimane vist tegi isegi uue rekordi dollari suhtes. Positiivselt poolelt on vähenenud marginaal Brenti ja Crude vahel, seda vist tänu Liibüa jõuvahekordade selginemisele. Kui varem oli Brent kallim $20-27, siis nüüd on vahe $17 kandis.
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AMZN-i eile teatatud kvartalitulemused kallasid investoritele ämbritäie külma vett krae vahele, sest nii nõrka prognoosi karta ei osatud ja aktsia reageeris sellele ligi 20%-lise langusega.
Võrreldes eilsega on aktsia täna hommikuks juba olulisel määral kosunud, kaubeldes juba $ 199 taseme kandis, 12% miinuspoolel.
Ka analüütikud on täna AMZN-i kaitsmas:
Morgan Stanley analüütikud ütlevad, et AMZN-i jätkuvad investeeringud tasuvad lähiaastatel ennast uhkelt ära ja seetõttu kinnitavad oma Osta soovitust koos $ 260 hinnasihiga ning ühtlasi on AMZN nende Best Idea.
Investment thesis: Amazon.com continues to be our preferred way to play the global, secular transition from
offline retail to online eCommerce. The company continues to innovate with a focus on future profit pools, not yesterday’s. We believe continued investment in fulfillment centers and Amazon Prime penetration will
payoff in sustainable, profitable growth for years to come.
We firmly remain Overweight with a $260 price target. Amazon.com is a Morgan Stanley Best Idea.
Ka Deutsche Banki analüütikud kinnitavad aktsiale oma Osta soovitust koos $ 246 hinnasihiga. Analüütikud ütlevad, et firma kliendibaas on jõudsalt kasvamas ja peab firma otsust investeeringutega jätkata väga õigeks, kuna nõudlus on endiselt tugev.
Prior years' strategic investments delivering unit/rev growth today - Buy We remain buyers of shares of Amazon.com on the share price weakness following 3Q 2011 results. Amazon continues to invest in initiatives such as Kindle/Fire and 3P/FBA and fulfillment centers as unit and customer growth
continue to come in at record levels. This near-term profit re-investment make sense to us as demand remains healthy, and new products such as the Fire and FBA should continue to stoke growth. -
AMZN on eelnevatel kordadel saanud target raise, täna tuuakse alla. Keegi oma pead sel korral agressiivse ostu peale pakule ei pane. Väike aktsendimuutus võrreldes eelmiste kordadega.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: QCOR +14.9%, PNRA +10.6%, FFIV +8.6%, MTW +6.4%, GLW +6.4%, LIFE +6.2% (signs agreement with GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals S.A.; Launches 3500 Dx Series Genetic Analyzers for In Vitro Diagnostic Use in China), SXL +5.3% (light volume), ARW +4.7% (light volume), OC +4.6%, NBR +4.1%, MCK +4%, BA +4%, ESRX +3.3%, S +2.6% (also announced that it has amended the terms and increased by $150 mln the total committed amount of its revolving credit facility, dated May 21, 2010), COP +2.4%, EAT +2.1% (light volume), MYL +1.8% (ticking higher, also announces that Robert Coury will transition to role of Executive Chairman; Heather Bresch promoted to CEO), ACGL +1.4% (light volume), FSLR +1.2%.
M&A related: VLO +7.8% (Royal Dutch Shell rumored to enter bidding war for Valero Energy, according to reports), PFCB +2% (ticking higher following report suggesting potential M&A), BHLB and CTBC (Berkshire Hills Bancorp to acquire The Connecticut Bank and Trust Co).
Select financial related names showing strength: SLM +3.6%, FITB +3.5%, DB +2.6%, CS +2.1%, UBS +1.7%, MS +1.4% (Morgan Stanley may be best candidate for spinoff, according to report), BAC +1.4%, JPM +1.2%, BCS +1%, HBC +0.8%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: AG +2.1%, FCX +1.8%, BBL +1.3%, SLW +0.9%, BHP +0.4%, GLD +0.2%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SDRL +1.9%, TOT +1.1%, CHK +1.1%, E +1%, RDS.A +0.8%.
Other news: ANX +16.8% (ADVENTRX Pharma and FDA Reach agreement on pivotal study for ANX-514), ONXX +11% (ticking higher, reports Phase 3 Trial of investigational compound Regorafenib in metastatic colorectal cancer meets primary endpoint of improving overall survival), DVAX +7.5% (reports Data From Two Phase 3 Studies Demonstrate HEPLISAV's Superiority in Immunizing Persons With Diabetes From Hepatitis B), RCL +3.8% (still checking for anything specific), BIIB +3% (announces positive top-line results from second Phase 3 trial investigating Oral BG-12 in multiple sclerosis), MAR +1.2% (board approves spin-off of Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation).
Analyst comments: ANH +3.9% (light volume; initiated with Buy at boutique firm), VAL +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup). -
September Durable Orders -0.8% vs -1.0% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -0.1% from -0.1%
September Durable Orders ex-trans +1.7% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to -0.4% from 0.0% -
ex transportation +1,7% :)
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Eilne päev tõi taas vastakaid hinnanguid USA tarbija olukorra kohta. Nimelt langes tarbijausaldusindeks madalaimale tasemele alates 2009. aasta märtsist, mil majandus langes 6,7%. Teisalt tuli heade tulemustega välja USA suurim kaubanduskeskuste omanik Simon Property Group (SPG). Ettevõtte teatas, et täituvuse määr kaubanduskeskustes tõusis 93,8% pealt 93,9%-ni ning keskmine rent tõusis 3,4%. Samuti toodi välja, et müük ruutjala kohta tõusis seitsmendat kvartalit järjest ning ettevõtte üürnikud ootavad SPG sõnul pühadehooaja müügi kasvuks 2-3%. UBS analüütiku Rich Moore’i sõnul küll Simon Property tulemustest USA majanduse jahtumist välja lugeda ei saa.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HGSI -13.6% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Brean Murray), AMZN -11.9%, RSH -9.8% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; removed from Conviction Buy List), DV -8.9%, (also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), CHRW -6.5%, (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird, downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill, downgraded to Underweight from Hold at BB&T), MASI -6% (light volume), FBC -4.5% (thinly traded), CENX -3.9%, FTI -3.9%, BRCM -3.8%, TJX -3.7%, HES -3% (light volume), DWA -2%.
Other news: HEV -21.7% (discloses Staff Determination Letter from The NASDAQ Stock Market ), MET -4.2% (comments on capital distribution - Co recently submitted to the Federal Reserve for approval a capital distribution plan), NARA -2% (priced a ~7.58 mln share common stock offering at $7.25/share).
Analyst comments: MG -2.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc), YOKU -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna ), OMI -1.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird). -
German parliament approves leverage to Euro rescue fund, as expected
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Wow - the IMF wants Greek bondhlders to take losses of as much as 75pc on some of their loans to the country, Dow Jones is reporting.
No more detail yet, other than that they are getting the information from an EU official. -
August Pending Home Sales +5.7% vs -0.9% Briefing.com consensus
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Odavad kinnisvarahinnad on lõpuks inimesed tegudele ajanud?
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Under scenarios put forward by Greece's 'troika' of lenders - the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund - that would mean a 50pc writedown for private sector bondholders.
Which is better than the 70-75pc the IMF is looking for, according to earlier reoprts.
German officials are pessimistic that talks with banks will deliver the 50pc headline haircut figure needed for a convincing deal. -
Congressional Sources saying Supercommittee Democrats have put forth a plan that has $2.5-3.0 trl in savings over next 10 years; half coming from tax revs, half spending cuts; $300 bln in stimulus spending
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Tilson käis äsja CNBC-s rääkimas oma uuest aktsiapositsioonist NFLX-st, milles ta seekord on otsustanud pikaks pinna. Turuosalistele ta jutt tõenäoliselt meeldis, sest aktsia on selle peale üle 3% plussi liikunud. Samas ütles Tilson, et võime näha veel NFLX-ga sarnaseid kukkumisi ja mainis ära CRM, mis tema sõnul võib kaotada 75% oma väärtusest.
CRM sees pressure after Whitney Tilson said he is short the stock on CNBC. Says stock could drop 75%
Aktsia hetkel kauplemas $ 123,20 kandis, 4,8% miinuspoolel. -
Korraliku põrget turul seostatakse juba varasema artikliga:
http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20111026-307154.html -
EU sources saying EFSF leverage expected to be in the order of 4x (but base amount not fixed)
EU Sources saying base expected to be in the range of EUR 250-275 bln (at 4x leverage would be approx EUR 1.0-1.1 trl ) -
Siin on ELi ametlik tekst tänasest kohtumisest ja plaanidest.
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CRM on pikalt olnud hambus ka Seeking Alpha tegijatel.
Parim minu arust siin
http://seekingalpha.com/article/300567-salesforce-com-this-decade-s-most-profitable-short-opportunity -
BASF-i tulemused ja guidance ka väga head. Üldse paistab, et enamus globaalseid tööstuskompaniisid näitavad väga häid tulemusi ja ka guidance-id - see peaks justkui näitama, et kõik ei ole veel kandunud...
