Börsipäev 4. november

Eilse seisuga on Kreeka peaminister loobunud kavatsusest saata eelmisel nädalal saavutatud Euroopa liidrite kokkuleppe tingimused rahvahääletusele. Põhjuseks nii peaministri, tema juhitava partei kui opositsiooni kindel soov jätkata eurotsooni koosseisus.

Kuulujutud ja võimalikud sisepoliitilised arengud pole aga kuhugi veel kadunud. Viimaste "uudiste" kohaselt võib Papandreou peaministri ametist loobuda, kui ta peaks võitma tänase parlamendi usaldushääletuse. Reutersi eilse artikli kohaselt:

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has struck a deal with ministers to step down and hand power to a negotiated coalition government if they help him win a confidence vote on Friday, government sources with knowledge of a cabinet meeting said.

They said the ministers involved in the deal were led by Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos.

"He was told that he must leave calmy in order to save his party," one source told Reuters on condition of anonymity. "He agreed to step down. It was very civilized, with no acrimony.

Tähelepanu pälvib ka täna lõppev G20 kohtumine Cannes'is, kus on arutluse all IMFi osaluse võimalik suurendamine Euroopa päästefondis. Ühe võimalusena võib IMF lihtsalt süstida EFSFi raha, kuid juriidiliselt pole see kiirelt teostatav. Danske Bank jagab oma nägemust:

Overall, we see two possible solutions. First, it is possible that the IMF could increase the firing power of the EFSF by providing funds directly to the EFSF or its possible SPV offshoots. However, it is questionable to what degree this is consistent with the IMF's current mandate, which allows lending only to individual countries. The purchase of bonds in the secondary market would be completely new territory for the IMF and would also probably require a change in the IMF charter.

Second, the IMF could use some of its existing facilities. In particular, the IMF's relatively new Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) could be relevant for countries such as Italy and Spain. The purpose of the PCL is primarily to improve a country's liquidity position to protect the country from contagion in connection with systemic shocks in global financial markets. This is a drawing right that countries prequalify for but when a country has prequalified this drawing right can be used unconditionally (duration is one ot two years). The size of the drawing right depends on a country's quota in the IMF (500-1000% of quota). Under existing rules, Italy could get EUR45-90bn and Spain EUR23-46bn, according to our calculations. However, an important question of course remains whether Italy and Spain will actually be able to prequalify for access to the PCL.

However, should Italy and Spain (and possibly other countries) draw on this, it would probably be necessary to increase the IMF's resources. The IMF's free resources are currently estimated to be about USD391bn. China, Japan and Russia have expressed a willingness to contribute to boosting the IMF's resources. Remarkably, the US has been more reluctant to support increasing the IMF's resources, partly because it fears it will be intertwined with current discussions about voting power within the IMF.

Lisaks Euroopa võlakriisi sündmustele on täna avaldamisel ka mitmed olulised makronäitajad. Kell 11 avaldatakse eurotsooni PMI teenustesektori indeks, kell 12 eurotsooni septembrikuu tootjahinnaindeksid. Kell 13 ilmub Kanada töötururaport ja Saksamaa septembrikuu tehasetellimuste andmed. Kõige tähtsama näitajana avaldatkse kell 14.30 USA töötururaport. Euroopa aktsiaindeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas 0,28-0,77% kõrgemal, USA futuurid kauplevad hetkel nullis.

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