Börsipäev 9. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Turgudele anti eile taas põhjust näha Euroopa tulevikku veidi rõõmsates toonides, kui teatavaks sai Berlusconi tagasiastumine peaministri kohalt. See ei sünni aga kohe, vaid alles pärast esimeste struktuursete reformide heakskiitu parlamendi poolt, mis võiks aset leida novembri lõpus või detsembri alguses. Kui Berlusconi taandudes puudub parlamendis enamus (mida eilne hääletus ka kinnitas), järgnevad tõenäoliselt erakorralised valimised, mida Berlusconi ise nõuab. See paraku loob täiendavat teadmatust, kuidas valimised võiksid laheneda ja sestap üritatakse seda tõenäoliselt igal võimalusel vältida. Kuidas Berlusconi tagasiastumise uudist tegelikult vastu võetakse, võiks paremini peegeldada liikumised krediiditurul, kus eile Itaalia ja Saksamaa võlakirjade tulususte spread tegi uue rekordi.
Kuigi ühtegi poliitilist kohtumist ega hääletust täna Euroopas ei toimu, siis see ei takista tõenäoliselt jätkuvat kommentaari voogu Itaalia või Kreeka teemal. Viimase puhul jätkub arutelu uue peaministri määramiseks, kuid suureks soosikuks loetakse Lucas Papademost ning täna õhtuks peaks debatt ametliku kinnitusega ka lõpule jõudma. Makrost täna midagi olulist välja pole tuua, kui kell 17.00 raporteeritakse vaid USA septembrikuu hulgimüügi varude muutus.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,5% jagu punases, Euroopa on avanemas protsendi jagu kõrgemall. -
LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - LCH.Clearnet SA raised the initial margin call applied to Italian debt by between 3.5 and 5 percentage points across all maturities of BTP and inflation-linked BTP bonds, the clearing house said in a notice on its website on Wednesday.
The changes, which include raising the initial margin call on 7- to 10-year debt by 5 percentage points to 11.65 percent, will come into effect on Nov. 9 at the market close and will impact on margin calls from Nov. 10, Paris-based LCH.Clearnet SA said -
Inflatsioon Hiinas on oktoobris pistu järgi andmas, näidates aastasel baasil 5,5%list kasvu vs 6,1% septembris. Keskpanga jaoks meeltmööda uudis, kuid tarbijate ostukorvist üsna olulise osa moodustava toidu hinnatõus jätkuvalt problemaatiline, kallinedes oktoobris 11,6% vs 13,4% septembris.
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Muu makro on Hiinas aga jätkuvalt püsimas suhteliselt tugevana
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Pärast esialgset väikest taandumist on Itaalia 10 aastase võlakirja yield roninud 6,8% peale ning sellega lükanud erinevuse Saksamaa 10 võlakirja tulususega võrreldes uutesse tippudesse. Osa süüst võib kanda ka Henno viidatud uudisele.
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Värskemad uudised Reutersist näitavad, et Kreeka peaministri leidmine ei ole sugugi veel lahenduse leidnud.
Asked who would become prime minister, the party source who declined to be named, said: "Vassilios Skouris... the head of EU Court of Justice." The source said: "They have concluded last night", adding that Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos would keep his post. -
Vaatamata sellele, et EKP on käinud väidetavalt taas Itaalia võlga kokku ostmas, siis müügisurve on jätkumas ning 10 aastase yield jõudnud üle 7% - tase, mis on pikaajaliselt jätkusuutmatu ning lükkab ilmselt edaspidi üha jõulisemalt liikvele spekulatsiooni vajalikust finantsabist, kui yieldid ei hakka alanema. EUR/ USD on samuti müüki saamas ning jõudnud $1,3700 taseme lähedale
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Müstilise kiirusega testitakse uusi tippe.....10 yield nüüd 7,36%
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Euroopa Keskpanga üleöö laenamine ulatus eile 7.735 miljardi euroni, saavutades kaheksa kuu tipu ning tekitades muresid eurotsooni pangandussüsteemi olukorra kohta. Siin ka graafik.
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Paar päeva tagasi kirjutasin siin foorumis ka, et aktsiaturud koos Euroopa riskiriikide võlakirjade tulususte tõusuga koos tõusta ei saa. Täna on siis mingis mõttes Itaalia võlakirjainvestorite kannatus katkenud ja 10-aastase võlakirja yield tugevalt üle "unlucky 7%" põrutanud - tase, kust teised riigid välisabi poole pöördusid. Kiirenevas tempos liiguvad ülespoole ka Hispaania yieldid. Lahenduseks oleks minu arvates jätkuvalt see, kui Euroopa Keskpank lubaks neid võlakirju agressiivselt mingi tasemeni kokku osta - seni pole ses osas Saksamaa vastuseisuga edasiminekut olnud. Küll on nüüd aga viimase paari päeva võlakirjaturu liikumistega Euroopa suurriikide poliitikute seljad vastu seina surutud ja otsustamist edasise osas ei saa enam kaua edasi lükata.
Itaalia 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus:
Hispaania 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus: -
Reuters: On Nov. 9, 2011, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that it is maintaining its Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) on Estonia at group '6'. It is also revising the economic risk score to '5' from '6'. At the same time, it has assigned an industry risk score of '7'.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: KITD +19.5% (thinly traded), SODA +9.6%, EZPW +7.3%, PANL +7.1%, ORCC +5.1% (thinly traded), SGI +5.1%, ASTM +4.2%, SLXP +3.9% (light volume), YONG +3.2% (ticking higher), DF +2.2%.
Other news: SVA +7.2% (reports positive preliminary Phase II clinical trial results for EV71 vaccine against hand, foot and mouth disease), YHOO +1.4% (Alibaba, Softbank to seek partners for YHOO acquisition - BloombergTV), CRIS +1.1% (receives FDA acceptance and priority review of NDA for Vismodegib as treatment for advanced basal cell carcinoma).
Analyst comments: RAD +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ROVI -23.7% (also downgraded to Neutral at Collins Stewart, downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray, downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Credit Agricole), MFB -21.2%, NILE -21.1%, STEC -20.5%, RBCN -14% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), ALSK -12.6% (also downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), ADBE -9.9%, WTW -9%, VLNC -8.5% (light volume), MKTG -8.5% (light volume), IL -8.4% (also downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), HBC -7.5%, SINA -6.8%, GM -6.2%, STP -6.1%, SYNM -5.9%, RL -5.7%, ACTS -5.5% (thinly traded), DIOD -5.3%, M -3.6%, SLW -2.9%, AG -2.6%, CLNE -2.5% (light volume), ATVI -2.1%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -11.7%, RBS -8.9%, DB -8%, AEG -7.5%, CS -7%, MS -6.5%, LYG -6.3%, BCS -6.2%, UBS -5.9%, C -4.5%, BAC -3.5%, GS -3.5%, FITB -3.1%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -7.5%, BHP -4.7%, RIO -4.3%, BBL -3.9%, VALE -2.5%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: E -4.3%, TOT -4.3%, STO -4%, SDRL -3.5%, COP -3.5%, BP -3.4%, RDS.A -2.8%, SU -2.5%.
Other news: POWL -18.9% (announced it will restate its second and third quarter earnings due to certain accounting errors originating from its Canadian operations, downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus ), ENER -18% (Energy Conversion devices continues execution of restructuring plan), CNK -4.2% (announces the sale of shares by Madison Dearborn Capital Partners IV), PAA -2.9% (commenced, subject to market conditions, an underwritten public offering of 7,500,000 of its common units), ALLT -2.3% (prices 5.5 mln ordinary shares at $14.25 per share ), AFFY -1.1% (ticking lower, Affymax and Janssen Biotech settle patent dispute).
Analyst comments: CEDC -5.3% (light volume, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), ABC -3% (removed from Conviction Buy list at Goldman), WAG -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), PRU -2.7% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), ANF -2.6% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust), NVDA -2.2% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities), ADSK -2.1% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), DLB -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray). -
EUR/USD on jätkmas langust, kui tänane ligi 2%line kukkumine on vahetuskursi toonud madalaimale tasemele alates 10. oktoobrist. Hetkel $1,3563
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Staying Positive
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Nov 09, 2011 | 9:15 AM
"A pessimist is one who feels bad when he feels good for fear he'll feel worse when he feels better." --Unknown
Since the market low in March 2009, the easiest mistake for investors to make is to be too bearish due to concerns about the macroeconomic situation. We have dealt with a struggling economy and the growing European sovereign debt issue for almost three years, but despite the obvious negatives, the market has performed remarkable well.
The belief that another shoe is about to drop and the market will fall apart again has kept many market players underinvested or downright bearish. These folks, who have good reason not to be very trusting, are chronically underinvested and end up driving the market even higher as it embarks on one of its many V-shaped rallies.
The big danger for the bulls in this sort of environment is that we never know when the market will decide that the obvious negatives will matter. Yesterday, the market shrugged off the drama in Italy and the fact that Berlusconi was trying to buy time to save his own skin, but this morning the fact that the yield on Italian bonds is ballooning above 7% is causing worries of a debt contagion. With Italy under pressure, how much longer before it spreads to Spain, France, the U.K. and even the U.S.?
Ironically, it is this consistent lack of trust in the macroeconomic environment that is the biggest market positive. Market players have consistently struggled with being underinvested. The big V-shaped move we saw in October has once again created a large supply of frustrated bulls who missed the move and are now anxious to buy pullbacks to catch up. They have not had many chances to buy weakness and, as we saw over the last six days, they can bounce this market fast once they jump back in.
Of course buying dips and pullbacks is always much easier in theory than in practice. When we have an open like we are setting up for this morning, the natural inclination it to seek safety rather than to rush in and buy the weakness. Once a bounce starts, the worries about being left behind again can kick in fast, but dip buyers usually want to see someone else step up before they rush in.
Another positive the market has going for it, in addition to the lack of trust in the big picture, is that there are plenty of stocks with solid fundamentals that are unaffected by the global economic malaise. There is no shortage of folks who would like to buy Apple (AAPL) or Priceline (PCLN) on a pullback. There are plenty of good stocks, and if we ever have an environment that supports stock picking, there should be some good pockets of action.
While Europe is obviously going to provide a nasty headwind today, I'm maintaining a generally bullish bias. In fact, a good pullback here may turn into a technical positive. We have become overextended the last few days and many stocks can use some consolidation. The key is that we hold above the trading range that was in place from early August to mid-October. The S&P 500 broke out over 1225 on Oct. 21 and it is important that it holds that level. If that support is taken out, it is going to be a major technical negative but we have quite a ways to go before it comes into play.
We'll see if the dip buyers have the nerve to jump in quickly to take advantage of this opening weakness. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like we are going to see great clarity about Italy right away. On the other hand, this setup has produced so many Europe-is-saved rallies over the last six months.
I'm inclined to be a buyer, but I'll give the bears a little room to show us what they have. I see a potentially good opportunity for the bulls, rather than the beginning of the end of the recent rally. I'll change my mind quickly if the buyers don't show some resolve, but I expect that underinvested bulls will be active.
At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned. -
Headlines crossing wires that Greek PM Papandreou will make a statement shortly
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CNBC, citing Greek media, reports that Philippos Petsalnikos is likely to be named new PM
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Tänane makro, hulgimüüjate laovarud, kujunes oodatust kesisemaks....
September Wholesale Inventories -0.1% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus
....tegemist oli esimese negatiivse MoM muutusega alates 2009.a detsembrist. Ühest küljest negatiivne märk, kuna hulgimüüjad ootavad väiksemat tarbimist. Teisalt aga kui tarbimine ei kuku ära, siis genereeritakse kaubatootjatele täiendavat nõudlust läbi varude täiendamise. JPM on üks esimeste seas, kes on selle peale langetanud oma Q3 majanduskasvu revideeritud prognoosi 2,3% pealt 1,6% peale. -
Green Mtn Coffee prelim $0.47 vs $0.46 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $711.9 mln vs $760.48 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Green Mtn Coffee reaffims FY12 EPS/rev
Green Mtn Coffee sees Q1 $0.35-0.40 vs $0.33 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs +85-90% vs. +83% consensus
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Mis juhtub võlakirjadega, kui ületatakse 6% määr? Vastus...
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Zerohedge'is ilmus üks huvitav lugu USA maagaasist. U.S. Army ja U.S. Geological Survey on jõudnud järeldusele, et kildagaasi puurimise ning maavärinate vahel on seos. 2010. aastal registreeriti Oklahoma osariigis 1047 maavärinat - ajalooline keskmine on olnud ca 50 maavärinat aastas. Enamik maavärinatest on aset leidnud Lincolni maakonnas, kus asub 181 kildagaasi puurauku. Siinkohal tuletaks meelde, et suur enamus USA tõestatud maagaasi varudest moodustab kildagaas, mida eriti idarannikul toodetakse. Sektori vähesest regulatsioonist on ka enne räägitud, kuid presidendivalimiste tõttu võib teema taaskord tähelepanu pälvida.
