LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 15. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Riskiisu kipub muutuma iga päevaga ega suuda Euroopast tulevate uudiste tõttu hoida sama tooni veidigi pikema perioodi vältel kui kõigest mõni päev. Eilne sessioon tõi Euroopas ja USA-s indeksite ca 1%lise languse, kui spread Saksamaa ja perifeeriariikide võlakirjade tulususte vahel liikus taas kõrgemale.

    Ehkki tegemist on novembrikuuga, siis käibemahud on USA börsidel kohati isegi kesisemad kui augustis, mil suurem osa turuosalisi oma puhkust veedab ja seetõttu on väga keeruline turu edasise suuna kohta praeguste liikumiste põhjal midagi tõsiseltvõetavat ennustada.
    NYSE volume


    Euroopas on täna kolmanda kvartali SKT raporteerimise aeg ning mitmed riigid on oma näitajad juba varajastel hommikutundidel avalikustanud. Prantsusmaa majandus kasvas aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes 1.6%, mis oli ootuspärane ja Saksamaa 2,6% ehk 0,1 pp jagu enam (lisaks korrigeeriti teise kvartali YoY kasvu 2,7% pealt 2,9% peale). Eurotsooni SKT avalikustatakse kell 12.00, kuid kuna värskem soft data viitab majandusaktiivsuse jahtumisele neljandas kvartalis, on turuosalised tõenäoliselt rohkem huvitatud sellest, mis hakkab järgnevate kuude jooksul sündima.

    Kell 12.00 raporteeritakse lisaks Saksamaa ZEW novembrikuu indikaatorid, kell 15.30 USA oktoobrikuu jaemüük ja novembri Empire State töötleva tööstuse küsitlus ning kell 17.00 ettevõtete kaubavarude septembri muutus.

    USA indeksite futuurid on hommikusest miinusest välja rabelenud ning jõudnud kergesse plussi.
  • Hispaania 10 a võlakirja yield on jõudnud nüüd tagasi samal tasemele augustis, vahetult enne seda kui EKP otsustas perifeeririikide võõlakirju hakata suuremas koguses kokku ostma.
  • Bernanke üks suurimaid kriitikuid FOMC liikmete seas, Richard Fisher, oli oma eilses esinemises veendunud, et USA majandus jätkab tuleval aastal kasvamist, mis välistab täiendava rahatrüki.

    “I’m more comfortable now in terms of not -- this is me personally speaking -- not anticipating greater accommodation,” he said yesterday in an interview at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York. “The direction we’re moving in is positive.

    See kommentaar oli aga vastupidine samal päeval avaldatud San Francisco Fed uurimusele, mille kohaselt oodatakse USAle 50%lise tõenäosusega majanduslangust. via Pragmatic Capitalism
  • Prantsusmaa 10 a võlakirja tulususe erinevus võrreldes Saksamaa omaga tegemas uusi tippe ning jõudnud taseme juurde, mis tegelikult pole kooskõlas AAA reitinguga.


    Alloleval joonisel on kujutatud Hispaania 10 yieldi ja Saksa bundi yieldi erinevust, kust on näha, et ajal mil Hispaani jäi oma AAA-st ilma (2009-2010), oli spread alla 100 baspunkti. (S&P sooritas kärpe 2009.a jaanuaris, Fitch 2010.a mais)
  • EURO = KAPUTT või sii
    spekulandid tormavad nagu peata kanakari sinna-tänna?
  • Hispaania võlakirjaoksjon ei läinud ka kõige paremini, kui kokku loodeti erinevate tähtaegadega võlakirjade pealt saada maksimaalselt 3,5 miljardit eurot, ent tegelikult saadi 3,16 miljardit eurot.

    Spain sells EUR2.6 bln in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 5.02% vs 3.608% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.13x vs 2.30x prior; Max Yield: 5.20% vs 3.68% prior
  • TNT
    EURO = KAPUTT või sii
    spekulandid tormavad nagu peata kanakari sinna-tänna?


    lisaks spekulantidele üritavad avatust Euroopale jätkuvalt vähendada ka finantsasutused, kelle müük yielde üles surub
  • TNT
    EURO = KAPUTT või sii
    spekulandid tormavad nagu peata kanakari sinna-tänna?


    defineerige palun EURO = KAPUTT lihtsa inimese jaoks ... mis päevast alates enam poes euro eest leiba ei saa osta?
  • Aastasel baasil kasvas eurotsooni majandus kolmandas kvartalis 1,4%, mis ühtis Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikute konsensusega (teises kvartalis +1,6%).

  • Saksa finantsekspertide arvamusi kajastavad ZEW indeksid jätkavad halvenemist, ehkki jooksva olukorra hinnanag kujunes arvatust paremaks.


  • Itaalia 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus on taas üle 7% piiri kerkinud. EURUSD päeva põhjades $1,3530 tasemel ehk 0,7% miinuspoolel.
  • Panen siia Bloombergist võetud eurotsooni riikide 10-aastaste võlakirjade tulususused täna ja kuu aega tagasi. Üheksal riigil on indikatiivne yield tõusnud, kuuel riigil langenud. Üle 5%lise yieldiga on täna seitse riiki - nende seitsme riigi võlg kokku on ca €3 triljonit.

  • Juulis ja augustis näitas eurotsooni tööstustoodangu kasv kiirenemist võrreldes aastataguse perioodiga ja see oli hoopis vastupidine olukorrale, millele viitas töötleva tööstuse PMI indeks. Eile avaldatud septembri tööstustoodangu muutus aga on rohkem kooskõlas PMI-ga.

  • Ka Belgia maadles tänasel oksjonil oluliselt kõrgemate yieldidega võrreldes eelmiste kordadega kõigest nädal kuni paar tagasi. 1a yield oli viimase kolme aasta kõrgeim

    Belgian 3-month T-Bill auction for EUR 1.830bln, bid/cover 1.45 vs. Prev. 2.41 (yield 1.575% vs. Prev. 0.957%)
    Belgian 12-month T-Bill auction for EUR 0.895bln, bid/cover 1.64 vs. Prev. 2.30 (yield 3.396% vs. Prev. 1.673%)

  • Erko Rebane
    Aastasel baasil kasvas eurotsooni majandus kolmandas kvartalis 1,4%, mis ühtis Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikute konsensusega (teises kvartalis +1,6%).



    Kas pool 'W'-d on juba valmis joonistatud?
  • Kui vähegi võimalik, siis Zerohedge ei jäta kasutamata võimalust Goldmani FX meeskonda nende callides maha teha ja ilmselt põhjust on kuna juba mitu aastat toimib Goldmani FX call contrarian indikaatorina. Läinud reedel soovitati minna EUR/USD-is pikaks targetiga 1,40 USD ja stop lossiga 1,35 dollarit. Täna on vahetuskurss stopile väga lähedale jõudmas.
  • Saksamaa 2-aastase võlakirja tulusus on aga teinud kõikide aegade madalaima taseme 0,295% juures (esmakordselt alla 0,3%).



  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VNET +13.1%, CIM +7.1%, AOB +6.7% (thinly traded), AGO +6% (ticking higher), DKS +4.2%, HD +1.3%.

    Other news: MGI (trading post reverse stock split), NLST +44.7% (disclosed it entered into two memory technology Collaboration Agreements), CAST +17.8% (announced that it has formed a special committee of independent directors to consider all strategic alternatives), APC +2.2% (Anadarko Petro provides horizontal Niobrara Update - net resource potential of 500 million to 1.5 billion BOE), WFM +0.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: RVBD +0.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital).
  • October Retail Sales +0.5% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus; Prior +1.1%
    October Retail Sales ex-auto +0.6% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.5% from +0.6%
    October Core PPI +0.0% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus
    October PPI -0.3% vs -0.2% Briefing.com consensus
    November Empire Manufacturing +0.60 vs -0.8 Briefing.com consensus; October -8.48

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MITK -17.2%, GURE -14.6%, IOC -9.4%, LDK -7.4% (also downgraded to Sell at Kaufman), MOTR -6.2%, SPLS -5.7% (light volume), SURG -5.5% (light volume), URBN -5%, ZAGG -2.4%, WMT -1.9%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -6.8%, NBG -5.5%, BAC -4.1%, CS -4%, BBVA -2.7%, UBS -2.5%, BCS -2.4%, DB -2.1%, HBC -1.3%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: TOT -2.3%, STO -1.6%, RDS.A -1.3%, BP -0.6%, E -0.5%.

    Other news: HAFC -13.3% (commenced an underwritten public offering of ~$70 mln of its common stock), GERN -9.1% (announced earlier it will focus on its first-in-class oncology programs; cutting 66 jobs), CADX -6.8% (continued weakness), ATVI -5.5% and TTWO -3.3% (still checking), PVR -5% (announces it has commenced a public offering of 7 mln common units), KOG -4.9% (agrees to acquire an additional 50K net leasehold acres and 3,500 BOE/d of current net production in heart of Bakken Trend, announces 2012 preliminary capital Budget; provides 2012 production guidance; updates estimated reserves quantities, announces $550 mln offering of senior notes and proposed public offering of common stock of 37.5 mln common shares), LNKD -3.9% (filed amended S-1), HSTM -2.7% (announces commencement of common stock public offering), LOGI -2.7% (still checking), CONM -2.1% (announced it has received notice from Ayelet Investments Ayelet Merger Subsidiary the counterparties to Conmed's previously announced Merger Agreement, that Ayelet does not in good faith believe that it will be able to obtain financing), FIG -1.4% (hearing related to pricing of block trade).

    Analyst comments: ALIM -5.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), OVTI -3.3% (downgraded to Hold from Strong Buy at Needham), POR -3.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), BRC -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), MRO -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), TSO -2.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital), STX -2.3% (light volume, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), QRE -1.7% (thinly traded, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), AAP -1.3% (ticking lower, Advance Auto downgraded to Hold at Argus), K -1.1% (light volume, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein).
  • The Big Picture Improves
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Nov 15, 2011 | 8:40 AM

    "To climb steep hills requires slow pace at first." --William Shakespeare

    The market ran up nicely at the end of last week as it anticipated political progress in Italy. Now that leaders in Greece and Italy have resigned and the countries are working to implement austerity measures, profit taking is setting in as investors reflect on the remaining obstacles ahead. There is plenty to do if Europe is really going to be saved, as we have celebrated so many times recently.

    Market volume slowed sharply Monday as some mild selling set in, which is exactly what we want to see on a pullback. We are seeing a continuation of the pressure this morning as Italian bond yields tick back up, and there's mediocre economic news out of Europe. Overall, things are quiet so far, and there aren't any positive catalyst motivating the dip buyers to step up.

    The recent run-up in the market has caused much consternation for the bears, who are puzzled by how it is possible to ignore such obvious big-picture negatives. There is no question that Europe still has tremendous problems that won't be solved easily, and in the U.S. there are few signs of economic improvement, and now there's the potential for a stalemate in the congressional super-committee's debate over a budget compromise.

    What has helped the market is that the negatives are so big and so obvious. It's almost too easy to make a bearish case for this market and, as a result, many market players have been underinvested and have underperformed. As the market continues to work higher in the face of bad news, folks buy out of fear of being left behind and that's what holds us up.

    As I've been writing lately, the psychology at present is a classic wall of worry. Everyone knows the negatives, yet we hold up well -- which causes buyers to step up out of fear of being left behind. Many potential dip buyers missed out as we went straight up in October. They are anxious for entry points, so they can rack up some performance before the end of the year.

    While the news flow is gloomy, the overall technical pattern of the indices is not bad. We are pulling back on lighter volume after hitting some resistance, but we need to consolidate at this point. As long the S&P 500 holds support at 1220 to 1225, we are in good shape for a potential run into the end of the year.

    What I continue to find most challenging about this market is the difficulty of individual stock picking. We had a little relative strength in some big-cap momentum names yesterday, but there is no leadership and no major themes at work. The speculative money just isn't doing much other than trading overall market direction using exchange-traded funds.

    The very low volume yesterday is an added complication that I find worrisome. We have too much disinterest out there and that makes it tough to generate sustained momentum when the action improves. Too many market players are weary of this market and it makes for choppy and more volatile trading.

    We may have more downside in the near term, but I'm maintaining a generally bullish bias. I'll be looking for setups and entry points but if volume doesn't pick up it is going to be a challenge.
  • September Business Inventories 0.0% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
  • Cree trades to HoD; Hearing move attributed to renewed takeover chatter
  • Henno Viires
    TNT
    EURO = KAPUTT või sii
    spekulandid tormavad nagu peata kanakari sinna-tänna?
    defineerige palun EURO = KAPUTT lihtsa inimese jaoks ... mis päevast alates enam poes euro eest leiba ei saa osta?

    Praegu saab Selverites sooduspakkumiste raames 1 euro eest 1,69 pätsi Pärnu vormileiba (viilutatud). http://www.pereleib.ee/378est.html
    Kui juba 2012-2013 aastal jõuab kätte olukord, kus euro eest enam leiba ei saa, siis ongi KAPUTT.

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