Börsipäev 18. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Viimastel päevadel aktsiaturgudel orienteerumine pole kindlast olnud lihtne ülesanne. Kuigi EKP jätkab endiselt järelturul Hispaania ja Itaalia yieldide allasurumist, siis üsna kesised oksjonite tulemused peegeldavad kasvavat ebausku riikide finantsidesse. Nagu eile sai välja toodud, siis Hispaania suutis plaanitud 4 miljardi euro asemel müüa 3,5 miljardi euro eest võlakirju ning registreeris kõrgeimaks küsitud intressiks 7,088%.
Teisalt aga osutus USA makro valdavalt oodatust paremaks, kui töötuabiraha taotluste number langes madalaimale tasemele alates selle aasta aprillist ning kinnisvaraturu statistika oli samuti arvatust positiivsem. Päeva alguses ostma tormanud investorid said aga teist päeva järjest nõelata, kui üheks võimalikuks põhjuseks võis olla ühe euroala ametniku kommentaar, et Itaaliale pole plaanitud EFSFist finantsabi eraldada.
S&P 500 lõpetas päeva ca -1,7% jagu madalamal, vajudes läbi 1220 punkti taseme ning jõudes taas vahemikku, kus indeks kauples augustist kuni oktoobri keskpaigani. Tehnilisest küljest sai vastuse ka küsimus, millises suunas tehakse suurem liikumine pärast kolmenädalast kitsenevas koridoris kulgemist. Tehnikute jaoks annaks muster signaali edasiseks languseks, kuigi ise usun, paljude lootus aastalõpu ralliks ning Euroopa uudised jätavad tehnilise pildi pigem tagaplaanile.
Makrokalender jääb täna väga õhukeseks, mis jätab suurema tähelepanu alla arengud Euroopa võlakirjaturgudel. Ühtlasi peetakse täna rida erinevaid kõnesid, millest vast olulisimad Mario Draghi esimene suurem esinemine EKP juhina (kell 10.00), Bundesbanki presidendi Jen Weidmanni esinemine kell 10.30. Saksa rahandusminister kõneleb kell 13.00.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,1% punases ja Euroopa on avanemas veidi üle 1%lise langusega. -
Hispaania 10a võlakirja yield avanes eilsetest tippudest kõrgemal ning 7% testimine kõlab hetkel ahvatlevalt
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Kinnituse sellele, kas uus suund on leitud, peaks andma esmaspäev-teisipäev. Mõnikord kontrollitakse põhja (või tippu) sellest läbi murdes enne õiges suunas liikumist. Teiseks on täna optsioonireede, mis peaks lisaks aktsiatele mõjutama toormehindade liikumist.
Üha raskem on leida uusi negatiivseid uudiseid, mis põhjendaksid alla liikumist, kõik peaks olema hindadesse sisse arvestatud. -
Aga summa summaarum pole peale väikese lootuse, et ehk nüüd lõpuks ometi on põhi käes, ka midagi rõõmustavat. Pilt on värvitud väga räigelt tumeda koloriidiga. Ikka väga pikalt aina tilgub üks negatiivne infokild teise otsa. On lausa ime, et nt USA-s veel ka tarbijad midagi ostavad. Üle lombi makrod ongi vast ainus argument, mis ülespoole kangutaks, aga jääb jõuetuks, paraku.
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FT kirjutab et Briti pangad on kolme kuuga vähendanud laenusid teistele Euroopa finantsasutustele 25%, neist kõige rohkem aga HSBC, kes on keeranud kraane 40% jagu kinni.
With bond markets all but closed for longer-term bank financing, the contraction in interbank lending will add to fears of a credit crunch as banks struggle to maintain existing loan commitments, let alone fund new ones. Europe’s banks have $700bn worth of debt scheduled to mature over the next nine months.
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Kas mul on viimasel ajal halvad uudised silme alt välja jäänud, aga peale reitinguagentuuride - kes, nagu alati, reageerivad tagantjärele, mitte ette, nagu vaja oleks - pole midagi silma jäänud. Murelaste - Kreeka, Itaalia - seis on paremaks läinud, lombitagused tarbivad nagu muretud ullikesed. Ainult Hiina kinnisvara maandumise kiirus on ebaselge.
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Päris huvitav, kui keegi küsib, miks EUR rallib:
ECB is said to have secretly imposed a weekly limit of approx €20B on its EU sovereign bond buying program (SMP) - German Press- The report did not cite sources and notes that the limit has existed since the program was started in 2010.
Super-Mario tänase kõne kokkuvõte:
(EU) ECB Draghi:
Expects economic activity to weaken in most advanced economies - address to European Banking Congress
- Weak activity seen through survey and hard data.
- Defends ECB November rate cut citing downside risks to EMU outlook had increased.
- ECB was aware of current difficulties for banking sector from the current debt crisis as interbank markets remained subdued.
- Use of ECB deposit facility reflects the tension
- The most important non-standard measures are full allotment, longer refi.
- Anchoring CPI expectations is the ECB's major contribution
- There three primary keys for monetary policy are continuity, consistency, credibility; stresses continuity in maintaining price stability.
- National economic policies are the key to financial stability
- Recommends not waiting any longer for effective EFSF
- Despite challenges to global economy, must resist temptation to resort to unilateral policies -
Justnimelt needsamad reitinguagentuurid sedasi süstemaatiliselt neid pigiplönne me meepotti tilgutavadki. Ja paraku reageeritakse neile suurtele tõdele väga valuliselt. Ma pole endiselt saanud lahti paranoiast, et see on suhteliselt manipuleeriva loomuga tegevus. Volatiilsus on ju meeletu ja seda osatakse mõnel pool ka ära kasutada. Kasumi suund mdgi ikka väikestelt suurtele. Seda mdgi, et kes käseb osaleda ja end vaesemaks teha.
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Mul on tunne, et Saksamaal on tekkinud plaan vallutada pool Euroopat, kuid seekord ainsagi püssipauguta. Ja see juhtub päris kiiresti, kui ECB-i aktiivsemalt asja kallale ei lubata.
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Aeg oleks nüüd rallida, pole see asi nii jama midagi.
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Eilse Ameerika võla kasvamise ilmestamiseks üks värske uudiskild.
Space agency chiefs from Europe, Russia and the U.S. are setting up talks aimed at finding a way to work toward a Mars sample return mission in the face of budget uncertainty in the U.S. that threatens to upend the joint effort worked out by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). Although NASA will launch the $5 billion Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission as early as Nov. 18 to help find the best place to look for samples, and Congress came close to meeting NASA’s full funding request for planetary science in its fiscal 2012 congressional compromise —which still has to be passed and enacted —the U.S. space agency has refused to commit to providing Atlas 5 rockets to launch joint NASA/ESA missions in 2016 and 2018.
As a result, ESA has turned to the Russian space agency Roscosmos for possible launch of its planned Mars orbiter in the 2016 window. Roscosmos chief Vladimir Popovkin says, in principle, Russia will be glad to accommodate ESA, but details remained to be hammered out. -
Tänane poliitiline fiskaalnali.
Friday’s quote du jour comes from German paper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and its interview with Irish prime minister Enda Kenny. First question –“Mr Irish prime minister, do you speak German?” Answer: “I can only say good day, but my children are learning.” Oh, the unintended irony.
Need, kes kooli jätsid hiinakeele tunnid vahele ja pühendusid saksa keelele, koorivad manti praegu. -
Itaalia tööstustoodangu tellimused langesid sesoonselt korrigeeritud andmetel võrreldes augustiga 8,3% ning sesoonselt korrigeerimata andmetel võrdluses eelmise aastaga 3,6%. Kodumaised tellimused vähenesid augustiga võrreldes 10% ja välismaised tellimused kahanesid 5,5%. (link)
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Paistab, et suur laev saadakse lõpuks kursile.
(EU) Proposals for having the ECB lend bailout funds to the IMF are said to be gaining traction - financial press
- Both Germany and the ECB remain opposed to the idea although they may be willing to consider.
- There is a possibility that a deal could happen at the Dec 9th EU summit, if a consensus emerges on the plan
Positiivsust küll, et ralli korraldada. -
Täna tõstab Sterne Agee Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 34 hinnasihiga.
We are upgrading our rating on HPQ to Buy from Neutral ahead of its October from Neutral ahead of its October quarter results this upcoming Monday, November 21, 2011, after the close. While we are making a call in front of the print, we are also making a longer- term call in which we believe there is a notable positive fundamental change in the company.
Analüütikud on HPQ kolmanda kvartali tulemuste eel (firma raporteerib 21. novembril, peale turu sulgumist) firma suhtes positiivselt meelestatud ja usuvad, et ka pikemas perspektiivis on firma fundamentaalsed näitajad paranemas.
Guidedown Widely Expected. Our sense talking to investors over the last few weeks is that expectations are that new CEO Meg Whitman will lower the bar to reset expectations. This makes sense coming in as the new CEO but also as global macroeconomic conditions remain very challenging. We have heard as low as $3.00-$4.00 in EPS. While we agree that numbers need to come down, we believe they will be better than feared, likely in the $4.30-$4.40 EPS range (vs. published consensus at $4.63 in EPS that nobody really believes anyway).
On teada, et konsensus on valmis firmapoolseks prognooside kärpeks, aga analüütikute arvates tuleb kärbe kardetust leebem.
Uncertainty Cloud Has Been Lifted. What has changed is that in our channel and end user checks, the uncertainty clouding the company’s PC business has been lifted. This is not only positive for its PC business (31% of revenue) but also for its other businesses including printers (20% of revenue), enterprise hardware – servers, storage, and networking (17%), and services (29%), which are intertwined with its PC business with bundling and cross-selling. The feedback we are getting is that the decision to keep its PC business has given channel partners and end users relief and giving them comfort in doing business with HPQ again.
Analüütikute andmetel on HPQ otsus PC üksus alles jätta taastanud koostööpartnerite ja klientide usaldust firma vastu ning sellest tulenevalt on ka ebakindlus HPQ suhtes kadunud.
HPQ jaoks on viimased pool aastat olnud väga heitllik ja segane aeg. Sellesse aega mahub kallis ja investorite pahameele osaks saanud ülevõtt, otsus loobuda PC üksusest, CEO tagasiastumine, uus CEO ja otsus PC üksus alles jätta. On ütlematagi selge, et investoritele selline uudistesadu pole meelt mööda olnud ja seetõttu on palju investorid otsustanud HPQ aktsiasse investeerimisest loobuda. Võiks öelda, et Sterne Agee on üks esimesi, kes julgeb arvata, et HPQ puhul pole siiski kõik veel kadunud ning tekitatud kahju on võimalik siiski heaks teha.
Kui kauplemise seisukohast vaadata, siis kardan, et Sterne Agee hammas ei hakka HPQ sugusele aktsiale peale ning võimu jääb natuke väheks. Samas on kahtlemata huvitav jälgida, kas analüütikute nägemus vähemalt tulemuste osas õigeks osutub. -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CRM -4.7%, DLB -0.7%, HNZ -0.7% (light volume).
Other news: XCO -12.5% (Exco Resources announces capital budget of $710 mln for 2012), OZM -3.3% (priced a ~33.33 mln Class A shares offering at $7.50/share).
Analyst comments: LEN -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Citigroup), ICE -0.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Credit Agricole). -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BCSI +21.5% (also upgraded to Neutral at Sterne Agee, upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Miller Tabak), FMCN +15.7%, ARUN +9.5% (also entered into an agreement to acquire Avenda Systems, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery Scott), HIBB +6.8%, MRVL +5.4% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig Hallum), MENT +3.4% (light volume), ATW +3.2% (light volume), CYBX +2.1% (light volume), GPS +1.3% (also announces new $500 mln share repurchase program).
M&A related: NYX +5.3% (NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse (DBOEY.PK) propose concessions to win antitrust approval for deal, according to reports), YHOO +1.7% (continued M&A speculation following WSJ article suggesting potential Silver Lake takeover).
Select financial related names showing strength: RF +4.1%, UBS +3.5%, IRE +3.2%, DB +2.6%, STD +2.5%, CS +1.7%, BAC +1.7%, MS +1.6%, HBC +1.2%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SSRI +2.3%, SLW +2.3%, SLV +2%, GDX +1.3%, GLD +1.1%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: E +2.8%, SDRL +1.9%, TOT +1.5%, RDS.A +1.2%, BP +0.4%.
Other news: NLST +11.6% (still checking), PEIX +9.3% (continued momentum), MHGC +5.9% (to acquire The Light Group; to be immediately accretive to earnings), HPQ +2.8% (CNBC reported Relational Investors takes 1% stake in HPQ, Ralph Whitworth gets seat on Board; also upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee), BA +2.1% (receives historic commitment for up to 380 737s; when finalized, order will be the largest ever for co), GM +1.9% (still checking), QCOR +0.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MCD +0.8% (early strength attributed to positive mention in Barron's), .
Analyst comments: CREE +4.9% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman), PANL +4.6% (light volume, initiated with a Buy at Goldman), RCL +2.9% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies), AMR +2.3% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Dahlman Rose), CCL +1.9% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies), SFD +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), KO +0.4% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies). -
Navigating the Road Ahead
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Nov 18, 2011 | 8:55 AM
"A stumble may prevent a fall." --English Proverb
Once again, after a very ugly day on European worries, we are gapping up strongly on news that some new European solution has occurred. This morning the news is that the European Central Bank is buying sovereign debt of "peripheral countries," which is driving up bonds and supporting the Euro.
The actual news driving this action is irrelevant. Psychology and emotion are what's important from a trading perspective. The fact that we consistently come back so quickly after being hit hard by worries is evidence that market players are underinvested and worried about missing out. Buyers tend to rush back in at the first sign of anything positive since so many are lacking long exposure. This causes the bounces to be big and quick and leaves many underinvested bulls on the sidelines.
While the pattern of selloffs on some new worries and then quick recoveries on new headlines is quite obvious, that doesn't make it easy to trade. If you are disciplined and use stops, it was very hard to avoid making sales on a day like yesterday, when we broke down so hard. Even if we have been leaning bullish lately, as I have, disciplined trading requires that you take some defensive steps when we start to fall like we have the last two days.
Rather than dwell on that, set aside the frustration of being jerked around by Europe every day and contemplate the overall market trend from here.
Much has been made of the triangular pattern that has formed in the indices over the last few weeks. Many are now saying that after two weak days that pattern is being resolved to the downside and that we should anticipate the downtrend to gain momentum.
I look at the situation a bit differently. First, the move to the downside hasn't gone far enough yet to do major technical damage. We did fall out of the area of congestion, which will serve as overhead resistance now, but we are still above the 50-day simple moving average of the S&P 500, and at the upper-end of the trading range that was in place for so long. I don't like seeing us below 1220, but at the open this morning, we won't be any longer. The next big step is to regain the 1250 level, which is going to require some effort.
A second thing to keep in mind is that the consolidation pattern in the indices was so well recognized that it is an ideal setup for a fake-out. When you have a big crowd trying to anticipate which way we will break, we will often see the initial move reverse because too many people embrace it too fast and are suddenly out of position when it doesn't gain further traction.
The breakdown yesterday likely attracted some aggressive bears who are looking for downside momentum to build. The bounce this morning is going to cause them to reassess, especially if it the bounce doesn't fail right away. If the bulls hold and start pushing back up, all those newly minted bears will have to reverse their positions and add to the upside pressure. Before you know it, we have a fake breakdown and the hunt for long exposure begins anew.
My thinking lately has been that downside should be contained because there is a big supply of underinvested market players who are anxious to rack up some relative performance into the end of the year. Those folks are going to feel some anxiety again on the quick reversal this morning. It took real guts to buy into the teeth of the decline yesterday, and those who didn't are now going to be worried about missing out on a quick recovery.
It definitely is a challenging market to navigate. Not only do we constantly have to deal with news out Europe, but we have some very strong emotions in play that quickly jerk us around as we navigate the news flow.
We'll see how well the bulls do at regaining upside traction this morning. The key will be the level of buying on the first pullback following the open. If the dip buyers are still hungry, they should provide quick support. -
Safe-haven valuutade otsimisel oli varasemalt SEK üks hea kandidaat tänu riigi heale fiskaalpositsioonile ja jooksevkonto ülejäägile, kuid edaspidi ei pruugi valuuta Morgan Stanley arvates enam väga atraktiivne variant olla, kuna Rootsi ekspordist läheb 40% Euroopasse ning põhimõtteliselt käib kasv samas rütmis Saksamaa majandusega. Lisaks on suurenenud võimalus, et Rootsi keskpank võib muuta oma praegust nägemust, mille kohaselt prognoositakse 2012.a lõpuks intresside jätkuvat tõstmist.
Though SEK has remained resilient due to its fiscal prudence and lack of need for foreign funding, we expect the currency to broadly underperform as focus eventually shifts back to growth expectations. In that vein, our European economics team has a below-consensus view on European growth and sees the Eurozone expanding by a meager 1.7% this year, and 0.5% in 2012. Even more importantly, we see Germany slowing from a 2.7% growth rate in 2011 to only 0.7% in 2012. Should our forecasts come to fruition, we think this would have significant adverse ramifications on Sweden. Indeed, Sweden is a small, open economy (exports are 50% of GDP and the openness of the economy, as measured by total trade, is nearly 100% of GDP) and is vulnerable to swings in global economic growth and trade. Further, it is especially levered to Europe, where 40% of its exports go.
Selle asemel eelistatakse Norra krooni
Another trade we favour is buying NOKSEK on dips towards 1.16. Indeed, Norway boasts stronger safe-haven characteristics than Sweden, driven largely by its massive oil fund that has the ability to support the Norwegian economy with fiscal stimulus in times of economic duress. Additionally, the Norwegian economy remains on a relatively firm footing, in contrast to the slowdown seen in Sweden – especially as Norwegian terms of trade remain robust. Lastly, with the Norges Bank only hiking 100bps since the trough, in contrast to Sweden, that has hiked 175bps in the recent cycle, should global conditions deteriorate the Riksbank has much more scope to rapidly slash rates, on a relative basis to the Norges. With rate differential risks skewed in Norway’s favour, and as NOK appears to be a more robust quasi-safe haven than SEK, we continue to like long NOKSEK trades as a tail-risk hedge for a potential sharp European slowdown. -
Zerohedge vahendab Reutersi artiklit, mille kohaselt kavatseb S&P kolme nädala jooksul värskendada maailma 30 suurima panga krediidireitinguid. Link
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Tänane ainuke makro USA poole pealt
October Leading Indicators +0.9% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus -
Amazon.com: With shares hitting lows, we note that there's a TechCrunch article circulating dissussing initial feedback from this week's Amazon Fire launch in which users are experiencing WiFi issues
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CNBC reporting, according to source, that the IMF is not actively pursuing ECB loans
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Headlines crossing that Official saying EU Commission will propose three options for joint euro bond issuance in the future but officials notes it will be accompanied by tight controls on budgets and debt levels
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WSJ on artikkel bensiinihindade paradoksaalsest olukorrast: bensiininõudlus USA-s on viimase 12 aasta madalaim (võrreldes möödunud aasta sama ajaga on bensiininõudlus langenud pool miljonit barrelit), aga teisalt maksavad tarbijad antud momendil bensiini eest kõrgeimat hinda.
Hinnaralli ei piirdu ainult naftaga, sest majapidamised, mis kasutavad kütteõli, on sunnitud silmitsi seisma rekordkõrgete arvetega.
Kuigi USA tarbija üritab bensiini pealt kokku hoida, siis näiteks Mehhikos ja teistes Ladina-Ameerika riikides jällegi nõudlus aina kasvab.
Kiirelt kallinev naftahind on analüütikute sõnul positiivne kõigile ettevõtetele, kes tegelevad naftaga või sellega seotud toodetega, aga paraku mitte nii väga hea tarbijatele, sest arvestada tuleb ka sellega, et kui USA-s peaks nõudlus paranema tähendaks see juba niigi kõrge naftahinna kallinemist. -
Clearwire drops to lows of the day; move attributed to WSJ headline suggesting co is evaluating whether to make its Dec. 1 debt payment
