Börsipäev 24. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Müüjate surve jätkub üsna halastamatu hooga, kui isegi päeva lõpus ei lasta pullidel veidi hinge tõmmata. S&P 500 lõpetas kuuendat sessiooni järjest miinuses, millega on nüüdseks ära pühitud pool oktoobrikuu ajaloolisest rallist ning aasta põhjadest jäänud lahutama vaid 62 punkti.
USA börsid jäävad tänupühade tõttu täna suletuks ning Euroopaski või seetõttu näha väiksemat likviidsust, mis suuremate uudiste korral lisab täiendavat volatiilsust. Makro poole pealt saame teada Saksamaa novembrikuu IFO ärikliima indeksid kell 11.00 ja UK kolmanda kvartali SKT detailsema ülevaate kell 11.30.
USA indeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas 0,5% jagu plussis, Euroopa on aga avanemas samuti veidi kõrgemal. -
Üsna tihti postitan siia foorumisse RevSharki päevaseid kommentaare, mis aitavad paremini mõista turul valitsevat psühholoogiat ja hoiakut. Kes pole kursis James DePorre taustaga, siis tema eilne pikem postitus annab võimaluse mõista, kuidas ta kauplemise juurde üldse jõudis.
After Adversity, Hope
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Nov 23, 2011 | 1:27 PM EST
I never imagined that going completely deaf and losing everything I owned would turn out to be the best things that ever happened to me. What I thought was the end of my life ended up making me far more successful and happy than I ever imagined.
Every year at this time of Thanksgiving, I like to reflect on the path I've taken to be where I am today. It is very easy to forget the blessings and good things in our lives, especially when we have been struggling with a very difficult market and a terrible economy.
Many of you have read my story over the years, so please forgive the repetition. I hope it might serve as a reminder that even when things look impossible and the future looks bleak, life can still work out far better than you hope.
Back in the early 1990s I had earned law and business degrees from the University of Michigan and become a CPA with two of the big four accounting firms. I was working hard to establish my own corporate and tax law practice in Ann Arbor, Mich., and was slowly making progress.
One bright and sunny summer day I was talking on the phone with an IRS agent trying to settle a tax shelter case for a client. I was trying to finalize a pretty good deal but I just couldn't understand what the agent was saying. I had to hang up the phone and actually meet in person so I could hear and finally conclude the case.
I had suffered from some hearing loss due to genetic reasons for most of my life but it had never really been a major hindrance. It would be an embarrassment at times when I misheard things, and I'd try to avoid courtrooms and noisy places with poor acoustics, but I could deal with it fairly well. But now I was losing my remaining hearing in a hurry.
I consulted various doctors and tried hearing aids but there was no obvious cause, and soon I was totally deaf. I could read lips a little but I could hear almost nothing. The only way I could communicate with most people was by written note.
Practicing law is tough enough in normal circumstances, but it's impossible when you can't communicate with anyone. I soon closed my law practice and lost all my assets. Not only was I broke and without a job, but I was recently divorced as well so the emotional toll on me was extreme.
It has been said that being deaf is worse is being blind because it isolates you from the world. I came to understand that well -- I couldn't have even simple conversations with people. I was lonely, greatly depressed and had no hope that the future would be any brighter. Luckily I had a small disability insurance policy that provided enough to pay my rent and put food on the table, but what in the world was I going to do with my life?
One day I started fooling around with a borrowed computer and came across a new online service called Prodigy. This service made it possible to interact with other people in cyberspace. I was hungry for any sort of contact with other people, and this very clunky computer and 14.4k baud modem allowed me to communicate without having to actually hear.
Just having some personal contact was a great relief, but what really changed my life was that I eventually stumbled across some message boards dedicated to the stock market. I had taken a few investment classes in business school and was familiar with basics like model portfolio theory, discounted cash flows and various valuation approaches, but I knew nothing about active trading, technical analysis or psychology. I was surprised to find folks online actively trading stocks who weren't worried about all those things that were so important to my professors in business school.
I was fascinated and was soon reading everything I could find about trading and the stock market. I had a small amount of money in an IRA and was anxious to see if I could actually do it. There were no online brokers at the time and since I couldn't talk on the telephone, I would have to drive over to my broker's office and tell him what trades I wanted to make.
I struggled at first as I tied up money in slow-moving big-caps that did nothing, and I got stung by small-cap frauds. But eventually I started to have a little success and made a few hundred dollars on some small trades. The more involved I became in the market, the more I came to understand that the secret to success was to understand emotions and psychology. Fundamentals didn't matter until someone decided that they did -- and that was the time to start trading a stock. What worked for me was to understand the mood and to run with the crowd as it became increasingly emotional.
As my little stake slowly started to grow, I gained confidence and developed some basic rules for my trading, especially when it came to protecting my capital. Eventually real-time quotes, online brokers and charts became readily available, and I had all the tools I needed to actively trade. I had nothing else to do with my time and I could not afford to lose a penny, so I dedicated myself to the market.
I started having my first real success in 1993 and 1994 as I traded stocks like IIVI and WTT, which doubled and tripled and split in a very short period of time. I soon came to understand the power of momentum and actively studied the approach used by William J O'Neill, the founder of Investor's Business Daily.
The late 1990s turned out to be the ideal time to be an aggressive small-cap momentum trader. My small stake soon doubled and tripled. In 1998 my income from trading was more than 10 times the stake I had started with a few years earlier and it continued to multiply after that.
The bubble days of 1999-2000 were like a gold rush for traders, but I stayed extremely disciplined and appreciated the fact that it wouldn't last forever. The insecurity created by being deaf forced me to always keep my defenses up. That may have cost me some profits on the way up, but it served me well when the crash occurred in 2000-2001 and I was able to keep my accounts near all-time highs.
After a number of run-ins with The Motley Fool on American Online -- I took great joy in antagonizing that organization for its disdain of active trading -- I started a trading site in conjunction with Herb Greenberg. The site was called Shark Attack and we operated the first real-time chat room dedicated to trading. In 2001, Jim Cramer invited me to write for RealMoney and in 2007 I published a book called "Invest Like a Shark: How a Deaf Guy with No Job and Limited Capital Made a Fortune in the Stock Market" after an editor from FT Press read my Thanksgiving column.
The stock market had become life and it was completely by accident. I loved it so much it never seemed like work. But even more fulfilling was that I had met a special woman while visiting my parents' vacation home in Florida. We developed a rudimentary form of sign language and I was finally able to share life with someone who cared. We celebrate our 16th anniversary tomorrow and have been blessed with three great children.
Technology not only allowed me to become a stock trader, but it also helped me to regain my hearing to some degree. A number of years ago I had cochlear implant surgery, which basically gave me a robotic ear. It gave me imperfect hearing in one ear but it was good enough that I could carry on a conversation without the pad of paper I used to always carry with me. About a month ago I had cochlear implant surgery done on my other ear with the latest technology. Next week I'm going to be hooked up to the new device and, hopefully, will be able to hear in stereo for the first time in more than 20 years. I am extremely excited about the possibilities and can't wait to find out how well it will work.
The point of writing this story is to let you know that if I can be this lucky and blessed, it can happen to you too. No one has ever been as down and out and felt as hopeless as I did when I was broke and deaf. Everyone faces challenges in life, and it is very important to not give up. This dreadful economy of the past few years has hurt a lot of people. If you are struggling, don't give in to hopelessness. Life has an amazing way of working out, and it helps the process along if you keep a positive mindset.
I'm very thankful for what has been given me. The best way I can show my appreciation is to better love all the people who have encouraged, helped and supported me over the years.
Have a great Thanksgiving. -
Nõudluse vähenemine eksporditurgudel sunnib Hiina tootmisettevõtteid möödapääsmatuid muudatusi tegema, eeskätt just vähendama ületööd ning jaotama tellimusi ümber odavama tööjõuga regioonidesse, mis aga paljudele kuidagi ei istu. FT kirjutab, et üle 10 000 töölise on Shenzhenis ja Dongguanis (kaks juhtivat ekspordikeskust) korraldanud viimase nädala jooksul palkade vähendamise vastase streigi.
Factories are cutting the overtime that workers depend on to supplement their modest base salaries, after a drop in overseas orders.
According to CLB, the average basic wage for electronic workers is about Rmb1,500 ($236) a month, but rises to Rmb2,500 with overtime. “Their basic wage is never enough on its own without overtime,” Mr Crothall said. -
Kui USA ja paljude teiste riikide börsiindeksitel on veel veidi maad augusti-oktoobri põhjadeni, siis India Sensex indeks on oktoobri tippudest kolistanud madalamale juba üle 12% ning nüüdseks vajunud ka läbi oluliste toetustasemete.
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Saksa ettevõtete hinnang praegustele äritingimustele ning järgneva kuue kuu väljavaadetele arvatust parem. Jooksev hinnang 116,7 vs oodatud 115,0 (oktoobris 116,7) ning ootused 97,3 vs prognoositud 96,0 (oktoobris 97,0). EUR/USD pole erilist reaktsiooni näitamas ning jätkab kauplemist 0,33% polussis @ 1,3386 USD.
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Fitch kärbib Portugali reitingu BBB- pealt BB+ peale ning säilitab negatiivse väljavaate.
-A worse economic and/or fiscal performance than forecast could lead to a further downgrade.
-Furthermore, although Portugal is funded to the end-2013, sovereign liquidity risk may increase materially towards the end of the programme if adverse market conditions persist
-Expects Portugal GDP to contract 3% in 2012 -
Eks nad midagi halba peavad ikka välja hõikama, et börsid kogemata päeva rohelises ei lõpetaks.
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Kuigi USA turud jäävad täna suletuks, siis toreda lõbusõidu on futuurid Euroopale siiski korraldanud. Startides turgude avanedes 0,1% pealt ning jõudes vahepeal ca 1%lisse plussi, kaupleb ES lõpukella lähenedes nüüd juba kerges miinuses. EUR/USD on samuti kogu plussi käest andnud ning liigub -0,15% madalamal @ 1,3320 USD.
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Araabia Liiga koos Ameerika ja Euroopaga kavatsevad Süüria kohal kehtestada lennukeelu tsooni. Ameerikla Välisministeerium on saatnud välja sõnumi koheseks lahkumiseks Süüriast ja vältida reise Süüriasse. Ameerika lennukikandja CVN-77 on Süüria läheduses.
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Kust see viimane uudis pärineb?
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Business Insider on toonud välja kõige veidramad majanduse hindamise indeksid, mis väidetavalt aitavad tulevikku tavapärastest analüüsimeetoditest mõnikord paremini prognoosida. Osad indeksid on tõepoolest üsna kummalised, sest ära on toodud näiteks mähkmelööve indeks (vanemad üritavad majanduslikult rasketel aegadel ühe mähkme kasutusiga pikendada ja seetõttu viitab mähkmelööve sagenemine majanduslangusele), aga konservoa indeks kõlab üsna loogiliselt, sest 2009. aastal kasvas konservubade müük UK-s 23%, sest inimesed otsisid võimalikult odavaid mooduseid kodus söönuks saada.
Igal juhul tasub lugemist, isegi kui reaalset rakendust neile majandusparameetritele on keeruline leida. -
lambiain
Kust see viimane uudis pärineb?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/aircraft-carrier-cvn-77-parks-next-door-syria-just-us-urges-americans-leave-country-immediately -
On ka 16.11 uudis Prantsuse suursaadiku tagasikutsumisest. Aktsioon Süürias on otsene huvide konflikt Iraaniga. Hiina ja Venemaa võivad vastu seista, aga nad ei saa ka sekkuda.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/france-recalls-ambassador-syrian-liberation-imminent
