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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 28. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Pärast ajaloolises kontekstis üsna nõrka tänupüha nädalat on turud avanenud korraliku riskiisu taastumisega. Selle üheks peamiseks põhjuseks võiks lugeda nädalavahetusel meedias läbi jooksnud kommentaare, mille põhjal peegeldub eurotsooni ametnike soov regiooni kiirendatud korras fiskaalselt integreerida, ilma et peaks hakkama praeguses etapis Euroopa Liidu lepinguid muutma. Selle asemel oleks plaaniks sõlmida kahepoolsed lepingud ning idee elluviimiseks ei peaks isegi kõik eurotsooni riigid nõusoleku andma, rääkimata 27st Euroopa Liidu riigist. Ühtlasi loodetakse, et konkreetsed sammud ühtsetel fiskaalsetel alustel toimiva eurotsooni suunas muudaks ka EKP leplikumaks kriisi ohjamisel.

    Teine uudis, mis eile levima hakkas, spekuleeris IMFi valmisoleku üle anda Itaaliale 400-600 miljardi euro ulatuses laenu ning seda praegustest turuintressidest madalama kulu juures, et viimane saaks järgmise 12-18 kuu jooksul hingamisruumi. Aga praeguseks on IMFi ametnikud jutud sellisest plaanist ümber lükanud.

    USA futuurid kauplevad ligi 2% jagu plussis ning EUR/USDki on kergelt taastunud. 9. detsember on see kuupäev, mil toimub järjekordne oluline tippkohtumine Euroopas ning turuosaliste meeles ilmselt mõlgub lootus, et eurotsooni valitsused suudavad selleks ajaks mingisugusele kokkuleppele jõuda. Seniks muutuvad turud tõenäoliselt taas igasuguste kommentaaride suhtes väga tundlikuks ning ma ei imestaks, et kergelt ülemüüdud tasemetelt võiks investorite ostuhuvi taas suureneda. Kuid ka USA makro poole pealt on nädal üsna oluline, kui tähelepanelikumalt jälgitakse ISM indekseid ning reedest tööjõuraportit.

    Tänasest makrokalendrist võiks välja tuua USA oktoobrikuu uute majade müügi (kell 17.00) ja Dallas Fedi küsitluse (kell 17.30). Võlakirjaoksjoni korraldavad täna Belgia, Prantsusmaa ja Itaalia.
  • Bloombergi artiklis kirjutatakse, et Moody's hinnangul ohustab võlakriisi areng kõikide Euroopa riikide krediidireitingut.
    Moody’s Investors Service said the “rapid escalation” of Europe’s debt and banking crisis is threatening all of the region’s sovereign ratings.

    Credit risks will continue to rise without measures to stabilize markets in the short term, the ratings company said in a statement today. European Union policy makers also face constraints to act quickly to restore confidence, it said.

    “In the absence of major policy initiatives in the near future which stabilize credit market conditions, or those conditions stabilizing for any other reason, the point is likely to be reached where the overall architecture of Moody’s ratings within the euro area, and possibly elsewhere within the EU, will need to be revisited,” the statement said. “Moody’s expects to complete such a repositioning during first quarter of 2012.”
  • Nädal on alanud suhteliselt tavapäraselt aluseta kuulujuttude levimisega. Erko tõi oma postituses välja IMFi väidetava Itaalia laenupaketi teema, kuid lisaks sellele ilmus saksakeelses Die Weltis artikkel, mille kohaselt plaanib Saksamaa koos teiste AAA-reitingut omavate riikidega väljastada nn eliit eurovõlakirjasid, eesmärgiga rahastada oma kulutuste kõrval ka Itaalia ja Hispaania vajadusi.

    Saksamaa rahandusministeeriumi esindajad on täna samas öelnud, et sellised plaanid puuduvad.
  • Kuna turud jooksevad ju pimesi iga kuulujutu peale kas siis ühes või teises suunas, siis on kirjatsurade jaoks rahategemine muutunud ju imelihtsaks...
  • Black Friday müük USAs tõstis paljudes lootusi, et pühadehooaja müük võib hoolimata kõrgest tööpuudusest ja tagasihoidlikust majanduskasvust näidata tublit kasvu. ShopperTrak andmetel ületas tänupühale järgnenud reede müük eelmise aasta taset 6.6%. National Retail Federation sõnul kasvas müük neljapäevast pühapäevani võrreldes eelmise aastaga 16.4%. Keskmiselt kulutasid tarbijad nn mustal reedel $398.62 (millest $150.53 internetipoodides) ehk 9.1% rohkem kui mullu. Osalt tulenes kasv kindlasti ka suuremate kettide otsusest nagu Macy’s ja Best Buy teha oma poed lahti juba südaööl. Samas ei pruugi tugev Black Friday müük tähendada suurepärast pühadehooaja müüki, millele viitasid ka jaemüüjad, öeldes, et tarbijad on endiselt kokkuhoidlikud.

    Tugevat kasvu näitas aga online müük, mis reedel tõusis yoy 26%. Seega arvatakse, et Cyber Monday (aeg, mil internetipoed pakuvad tavaliselt suurimaid allahindlusi) müük võib kujuneda veelgi muljetavaldavamaks. (link)
  • Valuutaturgudel juhib praegust rallit Austraalia ja Uus-Meremaa dollar, mis kauplevad USD suhtes vastavalt 2,5% ja 2,3% kõrgemal. Eurol on samuti hea hoog sees, kaubeldes $1,34 taseme juures ehk 1,2% kõrgemal.
  • OECD on täna värskendanud oma majanduskasvuootusi üle terve laia ilma:

    OECD lowers 2012 world GDP growth forecast to 3.4% vs. 4.6% in May
    OECD lowers 2012 US GDP forecast to 2.0% vs. 3.1% in May
    OECD lowers Japan's GDP growth forecast to 2.0% vs. 2.2% in May
    OECD cuts 2012 Chinese GDP growth forecast to 8.5% vs. 9.2% in May
    OECD says Britain will go into recession with Q4, Q1 2012 contractions, cuts 2012 growth forecast to 0.5%
    OECD says Eurozone has entered a mild recession, debt crisis is main risk to world economy, adding that ECB alone currently has the capacity to contain the debt crisis
  • Lisaks OECD-le on oma järgmise aasta globaalse majanduskasvu prognoosi allapoole toonud ka Morgan Stanley, oodates kasvuks 3.5%. Kolm ja pool kuud tagasi langetas MS sama näitaja 4.5% pealt 3.8%-ni. Analüütikud ootavad Euroopas majanduslangust ning majanduskasvu aeglustumist USAs. Aasia (ex Japan) 2012. aasta prognoosi alandati 7.3% pealt 6.9% peale.
  • 18. novembriga lõppenud nädalal registreeritud ECRI nädalane juhtiv indeks on jätkanud väikest põrget oktoobri põhjadest. See on vaid üks paljudest indikaatoritest, millele ECRI on oma recession calli'l tugienud, ja kuna teiste kohta puudub avalik info, siis on raske öelda, kas Lakshman Achuthan tunneb prognoositu pärast suuremat pinget nüüd.
  • Whitney Tilson, kes hiljuti NFLX-s poolt vahetas, olles eelnevalt pikka aega aktsias lühike, ütleb nüüd, et NFLX aktsiahind võib mõne kuuga kahekordistuda. Barronsi vahendusel võib lugeda, et Tilsoni arvates on firma oma vigadest nüüd õppinud ja usub, et firma aktsiate ja võlakirjade müügiplaan on hea, kuna leevendab rahaprobleeme.
    Netflix shares may be a buy, Barron's reports - Whitney Tilson, head of hedge-fund firm T2 Partners, thinks Netfix (NFLX) stock could double in a couple months with some good news, Barron's reports. Tilson thinks that the company has learned some lessons and has "gotten religion." He believes Netflix`s dilutive stock and bond offering was the right thing to do as it resolves any concern of a cash crunch. T2 has invested about 4% of its $150M
    portfolio in Netflix.


    Eelturul kaupleb aktsia $ 67 kandis, ligi 5% plusspoolel.
  • Näe, on jah 100 aktsiat sealt läbi läinud.
  • Tilson näitab, et suudab ühe noa mõlema küljega end katki lõigata. Kuu aega tagasi teatas, et NFLX long on häppipleiss, nüüd see positsioon -20%. Legendaarset shorti siin enam vast ei kordaks :)
  • Gapping up
    Financial related names showing strength: PBCT +16.8%, IRE +12.5%, ING +11%, DB +9.8%, BCS +7.9%, AEG +7.4%, CS +7.1%, UBS +6.3%, STD +6.2%, HBC +5%, MS +4.8%, C +4.5%, BAC +4.4%.

    Metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +8.6%, AG +6.5%, RIO +5.7%, BHP +5.5%, BBL +4.8%, SLW +3.6%, SLV +3%, GLD +2%, GOLD +-3.7%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: ROYL +10.8%, TOT +4.9%, E +4.4%, SDRL +4.4%, STO +3.8%, BP +2.8%, RDS.A +2.7%, XOM +2.5%, CVX +2.3%.

    Other news: GALE +43.1% (announced a clinical development collaboration with Genentech/Roche (RHHBY) and The Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine to develop NeuVax), BDSI +9.7% (US Patent Office rejects all 191 claims in key MonoSol patent asserted against co), NOK +6.6% (still checking), RCL +5.9% (still checking), STM +5.7% (ST-Ericsson announced the appointment of Didier Lamouche as president and chief executive officer of the co effective December 1), AMZN +3.5% (announced that this Black Friday was the best ever for the Kindle family and the Kindle Fire remained its bestselling product), PRGO +1.8% (received final approval from the FDA for its Abbreviated New Drug Application for Guaifenesin Extended-Release Tablets, 600 mg), .

    Analyst comments: GNW +6.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), NFLX +5.1% (upgraded to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna), WYNN +4.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Keybanc), CRM +4.4% (upgraded to Buy at Needham), GOOG +2.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), GILD +2.1% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman), VZ +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), CSTR +1.6% (ticking higher, upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan).
  • Gapping down:
    Few names trading lower premarket with futures pointing to higher open following strength in overseas trading
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GEF -3.7%.

    Other news: GOLD -3.7% (Randgold Resources states Tongon issues will impact Q4 production).
  • Portugali 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus on täna teinud uue euroaja rekordi 13,446% juures.
  • Accentuating the Positives
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Nov 28, 2011 | 8:44 AM EST

    "Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination." --Oscar Wilde

    It was only a matter of time before the market was hit with another "Europe is saved" rally. The move this morning is looking particularly energetic after a very dismal week and seven straight days of losses.

    The rescue plan this time is for the six European countries that still have triple-A bond ratings to join together to offer a new bond with the proceeds being lent to assist Italy, Spain and whoever else may be in need. The idea is to create a "two-tiered" eurozone with the hope that stronger members can band together to save the weaker ones.

    The plan is already under attack as skeptics point at the failure of the German bond auction last week. There are bond auctions scheduled this week from Belgium, Italy and France, and the appetite for this debt will determine if a rescue can be completed. There are still plenty of obstacles, and I'm sure we will be hearing all about them very soon.

    In addition to the news out of Europe, we have breathless headlines about exceptionally strong shopping in the U.S. over the weekend. Retail sales were said to be up a whopping 16%, but as Barry Ritholtz points out at his Big Picture blog, these numbers are based on surveys of future expected spending. The numbers are not calculated yet.

    It does sound like retailers had some good results, but maybe not be as fantastic as the headlines make it sound. Even if there were solid results, that doesn't necessarily correlate to a continued boom in sales or even profits. Black Friday hysteria always seems to fade fast, and I'd be very careful about chasing retail strength. It can't hurt sentiment to see these headlines, and the media is doing backflips over them, but the truth may not be as rosy as what is being portrayed.

    In any event, we have some good news giving us a big gap up to start the week. The big question is whether we can gain traction. We have suffered a tremendous amount of technical damage over the past couple weeks as we went into free-fall. There is no shortage of waterfall declines and broken charts. Many market players found themselves trapped in stocks that went straight down.

    We were due for this sort of oversold bounce, but can we trust it? Many trapped bulls will be happy to sell into strength this morning and then regroup. This market has been a real nightmare for many folks lately and it will be a relief to recoup some losses and stand aside.

    A failed bounce seems most likely from a technical standpoint, but this market has consistently frustrated bears expecting an oversold bounce to fail. I don't know how many times I've discussed the V-shaped moves we have seen after the market looked like it was completely dead.

    The bulls also have a couple of other advantages that my help keep this market running. Market players are not well positioned for upside after the relentless selling over the past two weeks. They don't have much long exposure and will be anxious to join the party. In addition, positive seasonality kicks in through the end of the year and plenty of market players are anxious to rack up relative performance. If the market holds up, performance anxiety is likely to be severe as money managers load up on high beta names to play catch up with their benchmarks.

    Failed bounce or V-shaped move? That is the question. The key will be the aggressiveness of the dip buyers on pullbacks. If we see good support and signs that longs are anxious to add inventory, I wouldn't be too quick to sell this rally short. Market players are extremely hungry for upside and this market is no stranger to V-shaped bounces.

    I'm inclined to be a buyer but the entry points will be tricky.
  • Commercial Metals: Icahn offers to buy CMC for $15 per share - CNBC
  • SINA trades down ~$6, hearing weakness attributed negative newsletter chatter
    WSJ seostab SINA Muddy Watersi-ga.
  • SINA spikes ~$2 after speculated newsletter shoots down rumors that they are running a negative report on the company
  • uute majade müük USAs kombib jätkuvalt põhja, seda vaatamata keskmisele hinnale, mis on madalaim alates 2003. aastast.
    October New Home Sales 307K vs 312K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 303K from 313K
  • *(US) FITCH REVISES US OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE; AFFIRMS AAA RATING
    The affirmation of the U.S. 'AAA' sovereign rating reflects still strong economic and credit fundamentals. U.S. sovereign liabilities, both the dollar and Treasury securities, remain the global benchmark and accordingly the U.S. credit profile benefits from unparalleled financing flexibility and enhanced debt tolerance, even relative to other large 'AAA'-rated sovereigns. The U.S. dollar's status as the pre-eminent global reserve currency and depth of the U.S. Treasury market render financing risks minimal and underpin a low cost of fiscal funding.
    - Moody's currently has a negative outlook.
    -S&P had downgraded the sovereign rating
  • Ma just eile mõtlesin, mis pealkirjad hakkavad olema ajakirjanduses, kui USA olukorrale tähelepanu pööratakse ning millisteks tükkideks eksperdid hakkavad ennustama USA-d lagunemaks, kui nad eelarvekärpeid ellu ei saa rakendatud ja elavad suurendatava defitsiidi peal.

    Praegu mõnitatakse Euroopat. Elame veel paar hingetõmmet.
  • Jälle üks väga täpselt sihitud ja ajastatud löök allapoole vööd turgude pihta. Tõepoolest- juba mõttetult roheliseks kippus päev kätte minema, õigemini läkski. See asi vajab ornungi taastamist! Usun, et kui keegi viitsiks ajateljele panna kevadest/suve algusest toimunud turuliikumised ja reitinguaegntuuride hüüatused turgude suunas pluss ajakirjanduse südantlõhestavad appikarjed ning "fataalsete tõdede" a la "EUR-i viimased hingetõmbed" ja "USA pankrott juba homme" ilmutamise rahvale, saaks üsna hea õppematerjali ajakirjandustudengitele. Aga on ju väike lootus, et homme selle peale vaid õlgu kehitatakse, nagu reedese Belgi reitingualandusega tehti. Eks Fitch oli seekord tagasihoidlik ka- tripleA jäi ju paika. Aga õhku jääb võimalus mõne aja pärast seegi ära koristada.

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