Börsipäev 29. november
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Kas järgnevatel päevadel näeme samasugust turudünaamikat nagu kogeti seda üsna meelevaldse ralli näol oktoobris enne EFSFi lõplikku paikapanekut? Iseenesest on uudistevoog jätkuvalt suhteliselt negatiivne. Mitme perifeeriariikide 10a võlakirjaintressid tegemas uusi tippe, rahaturud peegeldamas süvenevat stressi, Moody’s hoiatamas, et võlakriis ähvardab paljude Euroopa riikide krediidireitinguid, IMF lükkamas tagasi kuulujutud Itaaliale finantsabi andmisest, OECD kärpimas nii arenenud kui arenevate riikide järgmise aasta majanduskasvu ning samuti hoiatamas riskide eest Euroopas.
Sellele vaatamata suutis, S&P 500 eile lõpetada ligi 3%lise tõusuga ning Stoxx 600 liikuda kõrgemale 3,75% jagu, millega kustutati suurem osa eelmise nädala langusest. Ja ehkki Fitch langetas pärast turgude sulgumist USA krediidi väljavaate stabiilse pealt negatiivse peale ning Moody’s teatas, et kaalub 87 Euroopa panga võlareitingu langetamist, siis turuosaliste tähelepanu näib täies ulatuses olevat suunatud Euroopa ametnike plaanile eurotsooni kiirendatud korras fiskaalselt integreerida. Aasia indeksid on kõik peale India kauplemas kõrgemal ning USA futuurid indikeerivad järjekordset positiivset päeva (hetkel +0,5%).
Fookus püsib Euroopal, kus õhtupoole algab Eurogrupi kohtumine ning Itaalia ja Belgia korraldavad järjekordsed võlakirjaoksjonid (Itaalia kavatseb müüa 8 miljardi euro eest 2014, 2020 ja 2022 aegumisega võlakirju, Belgia aga 1,4 miljardi euro eest lühema tähtajaga võlga). USAs avaldatakse kell 16.00 S&P/Case-Shilleri septembri majahindade indeks ja kell 17.00 novembri tarbija kindlustunde indeks.
Euroopa olulisemad börsiindeksid on avanemas ca poole protsendi jagu kõrgemal. -
Hommikustes uudistes käis läbi Obama sõnavõtt peale EU liidritega kohtumist. Kõrva jäi sellised fraasikatked :"....Euroopa peab jõulisemalt sekkuma kriisi lahenemisesse .... puudub poliitiline tahe kriisi lahendada...."
Superkomitee fiasko ja defitsiidi uuesti laenulimiiti kasvamine juba meelest läinud? -
WSJ kirjutab, et Facebook võib olla IPO kuupäevale võrdlemisi lähedal. Konkreetsemalt on välja pakutud ajavahemikuks 2012.a aprill-juuni, mille käigus võidakse müüa 10 miljardi dollari väärtuses aktsiaid. Sellisel juhul kujuneks ettevõtte turukapitalisatsiooniks 100 miljardit dollarit ehk ca 2x kõrgem näiteks HPQ näitajast.
Facebook will be required to make its financial information public by April, because the company will cross the 500-shareholder limit by the end of this year. The SEC requires companies with more than 500 shareholders to publicly disclose its financial information.
Facebook could publish its financial information come April without an IPO, but board members and top executives have privately acknowledged that it would leave the company at a severe disadvantage, since they would have most of the liability that comes with being a public company, but lose out on the fundraising benefits of a public offering, said these people. -
DB on kokku pannud ühe graafiku DAXi käitumisest vahetult enne ja pärast mõnda olulist EU tippkohtumist. Hoides 9. detsembri kuupäeva meeles, siis vähemalt indeksi eilne 4,6%line ralli sarnast meeleolumustrit peegeldab.
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MS tõdeb oma järgmise aasta FX prognoosis, et kõrge määramatus ja võimenduste mahalaadimine muudab keskkonna ebasoodsaks kõrge betaga valuutade jaoks ning soosib eelkõige USA dollarit ja Jaapani jeeni. EUR/USD tasemeks prognoositakse järgmise aasta lõpuks 1.20 dollarit.
Our FX year-ahead projections take the lead from global deleveraging. Most Western economies have to cut balance sheets and while the market currently focuses on sovereign debt, private sector deleveraging needs should not be ignored. Global liquidity will be in retreat and volatility may trade at higher levels, suggesting the USD and JPY will stay strong over the course to the next year. -
USA või Euroopaga võrreldes on Jaapani tööturg oluliselt paremas seisus, kuid sealgi on märke globaalse majanduse jahtumisest. Tänane statistika märkis Jaapani septembri töötusemääraks 4,5%, mis oli selgelt kõrgem kõigist ootustest, kerkides ühe kuuga 0,4 prortsendipunkti võrra. Bloomberg kirjutab pikemalt.
Eile aga kinnitasid ametlikud numbrid, et üsna tugevas kasvus on taaskord ka Prantsusmaa töötutearmee. Teatud lootust pakkus olukorra paranemiseks jaanuarist aprillini kestnud trend, kuid seejärel on tööpuudus uuesti kasvama hakanud, jõudes oktoobris 2,81 miljoni inimeseni - kõrgeim alates 1999. aastast (9,1%). OECD nentis eile, et Prantsusmaa töötusemäär jätkab tõenäoliselt tõusu ning jõuab peagi üle 10%. Les Echos via Google translate -
Rootsi majandus näitas kolmandas kvartalis oodatust oluliselt jõudsamat kasvu, mille peale on SEK euro vastu ligi poole protsendi jagu tugevnenud.
Swedish GDP SA (Q3) Q/Q 1.6% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.9%)
Swedish GDP WDA (Q3) Y/Y 4.6% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 4.9%)
Swedish Q2 GDP revised to 1.0% Q/Q from 0.9%.
EUR/SEK -
Itaalia yieldid kõrgeimad alates 1997. aastast aga miski pressib turgu jätkuvalt üles. ES hetkel +0,9%, olles viibinud pärast Euroopa avanemist isegi kerges miinuses.
- Italian BTP auction for EUR 3.5bln, 6.00% Nov'14, bid/cover 1.502 vs Prev. 1.35 (yield 7.89% vs Prev 4,93%)
- Italian BTP auction for EUR 1.499bln, 4.00% Sep'20, bid/cover 1.538 vs. Prev. 1.49 (yield 7.28% vs. Prev. 5.470%)
- Italian BTP auction for EUR 2.5bln, 5.00% Mar'22, bid/cover 1.335 vs. Prev. 1.27 (yield 7.56% vs. Prev. 6.060%) -
Roubini kas norib tüli või paneb sisseruunatud ratsuga vana vagupidi edasi. Tänases FT artikkel - Nouriel Roubini A-List: Italy’s debt must be restructured.
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yieldid kõrgemad aga nõudlus samuti ja see näib hetkel turgu positiivselt mõjutavat
- Belgian 3-month T-Bill auction for EUR 0.502bln, bid/cover 5.61 vs. Prev. 1.45 (yield 2.185% vs. Prev. 1.575%)
- Belgian 12-month T-Bill auction for EUR 0.513bln, bid/cover 2.76 vs. Prev. 1.85 (yield 2.438% vs. Prev. 1.086%) -
Deutsche Banki analüütikud on välja andnud täna ülevaate luksusautode turust Hiinas ja möönavad, et nende hinnangul on luksusautode buum seal vaibumas ja 2012. aasta tõotab tulla märgatavalt kesisemate müüginumbritega.
Having met with several industry participants, we conclude that the momentum in the Chinese premium auto industry has slowed down materially when compared with the development in FY10 and H1-11. Inventories have normalized for most players, wait lists shrunk materially, and pricing pressure is selectively rising (from low levels) – we understand especially for older vehicles in the higher-end segments (S-Class and 7-series for example).
Kõige paremaks hindavad analüütikud Audi väljavaateid, aga MB ja BMW jaoks saab eriti esimene poolaasta olema üsna keeruline.
While in the mid-term all companies should continue to benefit from growing Chinese premium car sales, we are most convinced about the prospects of Audi—the company currently has the best volume development, is ahead of its A6 renewal, and is the only German player that will likely materially increase fully consolidated imports. Furthermore, Audi will increase its dealer network most aggressively, which should help to maintain its leadership over the other two brands. In our view, MB and BMW should both experience a more challenging H1-12, -
AMR and American Airlines File for Chapter 11 Reorganization to Achieve Industry Competitiveness
Palju lenukompaniisi eelmisel aastakümnel seda kasutas? -
Natuke geopoliitikat: Iraanis on protestijad hõivanud Briti saatkonna ja pommitavad saatkonda molotovi kokteilidega.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: STX +9.4%, MAGS +9.4%, HI +6.9%.
M&A news: YHOO +1% (Private equity firm THL interested in buyout of YHOO's US business, according to reports).
Select financial related names showing strength: IRE +2%, UBS +1.8%, BCS +1.7%, DB +1.5%.
A few oil/gas related names showing strength: BTU +1.4%, TOT +1.3%, BP +1.1%, RDS.A +0.8%.
Other news: MRNA +20.4% (announced that the Marina/Debiopharm Research and Development Team has selected and confirmed the lead DiLA2 formulation for a RNAi-based therapy for the treatment of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer), MHR +16% (ticking higher, obtains exemption from Canadian oil and gas reporting obligations), CIMT +11.5% (to Seek court approval for cash distributions to shareholders), ONXX +7.5% (light volume, announces FDA acceptance of New Drug Application for Carfilzomib for the treatment of relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma), CEDC +6.2% (Russian Standard Corp discloses 9.9% stake in 13D filing), AIXG +4.7% (still checking), GOLD +3.8% (still checking), FDML +2.7% (Non-executive Board Chairman discloses buying 126.9K shares at $13.46-13.82 on 11/23-11/28, worth ~$1.7 mln), CCL +2.7% and CUK +2.7% (still checking), BK +0.6% (SVP discloses buying 25K shares at $17.86-17.92 on 11/23, worth ~$450K).
Analyst comments: RIMM +3.2% (upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein), PPG +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc), DNR +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust), HPQ +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC), STO +0.7% (light volume, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Collins Stewart). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TIF -4.9%.
M&A news: ABVA -8% and EGBN -2.2% (both thinly traded; Eagle Bancorp and Alliance Bankshares Corporation announce mutual termination of merger agreement), .
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: VALE -2.2%, SLV -1.5%, AG -1.2%, RIO -1.1%, GLD -0.2%.
Other news: RIG -5.7% (commenced a public offering of 26 mln of its shares to be newly issued utilizing RIG's authorized share capital), SUSS -3.6% (announces public offering of common stock), TLAB -3.3% (discloses previously issued interim financial statements should no longer be relied upon).
Analyst comments: DDS -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee). -
Kes biotehnoloogiasektoril silma peal hoiab, siis Adam Feuerstein on just postitanud järgmise aasta FDA kalendri ehk toonud välja kõige olulisemad ravimid, mille kohta peaks USA ravimiamet oma otsuse heakskiidu osas langetama.
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keerulisi eesseisvaid aegasid oli täna sunnitud tunnistama ka UK rahandusminister George Osbourne, avalikustades värskete majandusprognooside näol oluliselt suurema majanduslanguse ohu järgmise aastal ning tunnistades varasemast suuremat auku avaliku sektori finantsides, mistõttu tuleb järgnevatel aastatel rohkem laenata.
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Is Optimism Warranted?
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Nov 29, 2011 | 8:33 AM
"Optimism is the foundation of courage." --Nicholas Murray Butler
The question to ponder this morning is whether yesterday's big bounce marks a turning point in the market, or was it just a temporary respite before we roll back over and test the lows of the year reached in early October?
A better-than-expected, but still poor, Italian bond auction is helping to hold us up in the early going but there is little evidence of any major buying momentum. The news flow is benign, but buyers are looking for signs that others are willing to step up and start putting money to work before joining in.
Probably the biggest positive for the bulls is the very high level of skepticism and not much trust. I see very few bulls other than Doug Kass, who is taking a contrarian approach with the market mood so sour. The bears tell us that Europe is still a mess and while we bounced on some news of potential solutions, there are still so many hurdles remaining that no real resolution is likely to come soon.
Technically, the charts support a defensive view. We've had one low-volume, oversold bounce and we can certainly go higher, but there is nothing to suggest that we are going to see a V-shaped move and head straight back up. The bears are waiting for this bounce to fail and they are confident we are going to retest the early October lows.
The problem with that bearish take is that this market has consistently confounded the bears who thought the market could not recover quickly or easily. The most recent example was in October, where after hitting a new low for the year Oct. 4 we reversed intraday and then went almost straight up the remainder of the month. There was no shortage of negatives, just like now, but once we started moving market players started buying and momentum grew. We never had very high volume along the way, but the upside price action sucked in the buyers who didn't want to miss out.
While the technical pattern certainly is not very inviting, I believe that conditions are good for the same sort of move we saw in October. Any surprise news out of Europe can change things quickly, but the high level of skepticism, the fact that many are underinvested, the need for relative performance and positive seasonality are all factors that favor the bulls here.
I simply want to see some signs that optimism is warranted. I am positioned very neutral right now primarily because the charts of individual stocks look so bad, but if we continue to hold and see some dip buying support, I want to start to inch in and build some positions.
I'm usually not a contrarian like Doug Kass, but prefer to buy trends and momentum. However, this market has consistently shown an inclination to reverse when it has been on the brink of what many think will be a major collapse.
I'm not going to rush to load up but my mindset is leaning bullish and I am going to watch for entries. I'll be quick to move back to the sidelines if we falter, but I'm watching very careful if the bulls can surprise everyone again and generate momentum in the face of a very high level of negativity. -
Sep. Case-Shiller 20-city Index -3.6% vs. -3.0% Briefing.com consensus
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Kerrisdale Capital on väljas uue Hiina RTM pettusega. Mälu järgi oli Kerrisdale Q3 2011 seisuga aasta algusest üleval suurusjärgus +150%.
Raporti avaldamise hetkel on neil muidugi positsioonid juba võetud.
Kõik Hiina teemalised shordid pole neil töötanud ka.
http://kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/CAST-Report-November-2011.pdf
We believe that ChinaCast Education Corp. is falsifying its SEC financial statements. Based on
our evidence, we believe that the actual underlying ELG business has historically generated
materially less revenue and profit than what the Company has reported in SEC filings. We also
provide evidence that funds may have been misappropriated during two of the Company’s
college acquisitions; when faced with these allegations, the Company’s unwillingness to publicly
address these issues in a clear, straightforward manner made us further concerned about
CAST. -
Pangajooks iraanlaste moodi - Mõlemad Iraani UK saatkonnad hõivanud, ja salajasi dokumente kaasa võtnud, rahvamass protestisid UK poolt Iraanile kehtestatud pangandussanktsioonide vastu.
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November Consumer Confidence 56.0 vs 42.5 Briefing.com consensus Prior 39.8
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No võta siis nüüd kinni - analüütikud ennustavad peatset maailmalõppu ja tarbijad tarbivad. Aga võib-olla see ongi selline meeleheitlik tarbimine kuniks veel saab, sest lõpp on ju lähedal ja palju sa sinna kirstu ikka seda varanatukest kaasa võtad :-)
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Muddy Watersi analüütik Carson Block esineb meie aja järgi kell 20.00 CNBC-s, selgitamaks oma FMCN aktsia Müü reitingu tagamaid. Lisaks kinnitas MW ka Müü reitingut FMCN-le.
Muddy Waters reiterated its Strong Sell on Focus Media $FMCN ahead of Carson Block's appearance on CNBC at 2PM. Shares down 6% -
Iraani Briti saatkonnajooks. Pilt viib sisuni.
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Wires reporting that the Euro Zone Finance Ministers agreed to release 8 bln euro aid payment to Greece
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SINA ticking higher; Hearing positive mention at Piper Jaffray (Gene Munster)
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G.O.P. Leader McConnell says sees one-year extension of payroll tax cut by Congress
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PIMCO's Bill Gross on CNBC says Euroland is in a recession, and the potential is there for the U.S. as well, with a 30-40% chance
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Futures and financials ticking lower in after-hours; headlines crossing wires suggesting Standard & Poors downgraded several US Banks
BAC, C, GS, Merrill cut to A- from A... WFC cut to A+ from AA-.
Turg ja mitmed pangaaktsiad on järelturul madalamale vajunud kuna Standard&Poors on alandanud mitme USA panga reitingut.
