Börsipäev 7. detsember
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Vahest ehk isegi kuu aega tagasi oleks S&P otsus määrata 15 Euroopa riigi ja EFSFi krediidireitingule negatiivne väljavaade tinginud börsidel korraliku verevalamise, kuid eilse reaktsiooni põhjal võib eeldada, et turuosalistel on usku reedesesse tippkohtumisse ning krediidireitingute alandamised suudetakse lähiajal ära hoida. Itaalia ja Portugali 10a võlakirjade yieldid jätkasid alanemist, Hispaania oma liikus aga veidi kõrgemale pärast võrdlemisi tugevat langust esmaspäeval.
Stoxx 600 sulgus eile 0,34% madalamal ning USA olulisemad indeksid triivisid samuti suhteliselt kesise käibe juures terve päeva nulli lähedal. Sessiooni lõpus näidati väikest tõusu, kui sentimenti aitas parandada FT järjekordne lugu, et Euroopa ametnikud kaaluvad ESMi (500 mld EUR) ja EFSFi (440 mld EUR) töös hoidmist paralleelselt, mis suurendaks võimalusi võlakriisi ohjamisel. Viimasel tunnil müüdi aga kogu tõus ära ning S&P 500 lõpetas vaid 0,1% kõrgemal.
Deutsche võtab eurooplaste senised katsed üsna hästi kokku..
The four times levered EFSF package and insurance scheme of two months has been gradually fading from view and any remaining hopes probably subsided with S&P's negatiive credit rating watch listing on the EFSF yesterday following the previous night's negative rating watches on 15 EU sovereigns. This potential bailout plan was huge news at the time. Since then we've had speculation about Chinese/EM involvement, the IMF, ECB loans to the IMF, bilateral agreements, creating a central financial authority, joint Euro-area bonds, AAA-only ‘Elite Bonds’, making the EFSF a bank, making the EFSF co-invest in a SPV that could access ECB liquidity, using the EIB as a SPV, the Fed being involved, ongoing debates about the role of the ECB and now a slow march towards treaty changes. If we've left any out please let us know.
Ehk kokkuvõttes on turgudele söödetud igasugused võimalikke kombinatsioone võimsa kriisivastase tulirelva loomiseks aga siiani üsna edutult ning miks peaks arvama, et EFSFi ja ESMi kombineerimine tõotab olla väga palju erinev sellest saagast, kuna jätkuvalt on selgusetu, kust kõik see raha võetakse.
Kuigi tundub, et makrouudistega pole enne neljapäevast EKP kohtumist ja reedest ELi tippkohtumist suurt midagi peale hakata, siis olulisemad võiks siiski välja tuua.
11.00 Itaalia oktoobri tööstustoodang
11.30 Suurbritannia oktoobri tööstustoodang
13.00 Saksamaa oktoobri tööstustoodang
22.00 USA tarbijakrediidi muutus oktoobris
USA indeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas ligi protsendi jagu kõrgemal ning Euroopa futuurid viitavad indeksite avanemisele 0,8-1,4% plusspoolel. -
Italian Industrial Production SA (Oct) M/M -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -4.8%, Rev. to -4.6%)
Italian Industrial Production WDA (Oct) Y/Y -4.2% vs. Exp. -2.7% (Prev. -2.7%) -
Kuigi turg tundub arvavat, et reedene ELi kohtumine toob lauale konkreetsed ja toimivad lahendused ja ettepanekud, siis Goldman Sachsi analüütikud on vastupidisel arvamusel.
Andrew Benito ja Huw Pill ütlevad Business Insideri vahendusel, et esmaspäevane kohtumine näitas ilmekalt, et Merkelil ja Sarkozy tulevikuvisooon Euroopast erineb endiselt olulisel määral ning reedese kohtumise tulemus kindlasti turu ootustele ei vasta.
As analysts Andrew Benito and Huw Pill, there's still a major area of disagreement between Merkel and Sarkozy on the essence of what Europe is going to look like.
Our bottom line is the following: the ‘clean’ solutions that would have seen clear resolution of that impasse appear to have been ruled out following Monday’s German/French meeting. That makes something altogether fuzzier likely to emerge from Friday, and this risks falling short of market expectations. The sequencing that we believe is being followed will be delayed further into the new year. -
EL on ju nii kehvasti juhitav ja ettearvamatu struktuur, et siin midagi ennustada on küll suuremat sorti julgustükk.
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Suubritannia tööstustoodang samuti alla ootuste. Lisaks revideeriti ka eelneva kuu näitajat madalamale.
UK Industrial Production (Oct) M/M -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.0%)
UK Industrial Production (Oct) Y/Y -1.7% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. -0.7%, Rev. to -1.5%) -
German Industrial Production SA (Oct) M/M 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -2.7%, Rev. to -2.8%)
German Industrial Production NSA WDA (Oct) Y/Y 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 5.4%)
German economy ministry says output saw slight recovery after two falls but production in coming months will be muted. -
Apple (AAPL)-l on probleeme Hiinas "iPad" kaubamärgiga, kuna üks Proview nimeline Hiina firma on selle kaubamärgi juba 2000. aastal ära registreerinud. Nüüd ütleb firma, et on valmis AAPL-ga $ 1miljardi eest "kokkuleppe" tegema.
Eelnevalt on Apple kohtule kaubamärgi kaitseks taotluse juba esitanud, mis aga tagasi lükati ja Business Insideri vahendusel arvatakse, et ettevõte võib Hiinas hakata iPade müüma mõne teise nime all. -
Keegi registreerige kähku Upad ära
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Reutersi kohaselt on Euroopa kommertspangad küsinud eelmise nädalal odavamaks muutunud dollari-laenude esimes pakkumises 50,7 miljardi USD eest kolme-kuulise tähtajaga likviidsuse lisamist. Analüütikud ootasid samas 10 miljardi USD küsimist.
FT Alphaville'i vahendusel on toodud ka graafik, kust on näha, et ka pankade üleöö euro-laenude nõudlus on järjest kasvamas. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MIND +16.3%, VTSS +8.3% (also files for a $75 mln mixed shelf offering), MW +7.8%, ESIC +6.9% (thinly traded), NCS +5.4% (light volume), AVAV +1.9% (light volume), MON +1.8%.
M&A news: TLB +78.2% (Talbots receives unsolicited letter from Sycamore Partners proposing to acquire all outstanding common stock for $3.00 per share upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Wedbush), YHOO +0.4% (light volume; Yahoo! ticking higher in early pre-market trade on WSJ story reporting co is seeking better terms from potential bidders).
Other news: MSO +28.2% (JCP has invested $38.5 mln for 11 mln newly issued shares of Class A common stock at $3.50 a share, for a 16.6% stake in MSO), GALE +27.8% (announced five year efficacy data from the ongoing NeuVax Phase 2 trial at the CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposiu), OXGN +18.6% (presents 'encouraging data' from FAVOR Study of ZYBRESTAT in PCV), AMR +12.9% (still checking for anything specific), FSLR +4.1% (still checking), CRZO +3.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), NFLX +1% (light volume, unveils Xbox 360 experience, expands Xbox support to Latin America).
Analyst comments: CRK +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), DUK +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), JDSU +0.8% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VRA -5.8%, PLAB -4.5% (light volume).
Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -5.1% (will take a EUR 0.9-1.1 bln 4Q charge on US insurance closed block VA assumption review ), DB -3.6%, STD -2.6%, BCS -2.4%, CS -2.3%, LYG -1.8%, C -1.6%, UBS -1.6%, MS -1.1%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: JAG -3.3%, SSRI -2%, SLV -1.8%, AU -1.2%, GLD -0.5%.
A few coal related names under pressure following Goldman downgrade of the sector: PCX -2.0%, BTU -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), ANR -1.7%, WLT -1.2%.
Other news: CMM -18.6% (still checking), FRO -7.1% (modestly pulling back), FNFG -5.7% (announces $450 million common stock offering and additional capital actions), CTIC -3.8% (modestly pulling back), NOK -2.4% (still checking), EXPR -1.6% (has authorized the co to prepay the outstanding balance of its $125 million secured term loan, announces a 16 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholder), DG -1.4% (prices 25 mln shares of common stock by existing shareholders at $39.00/share).
Analyst comments: BRO -1.7% (light volume, downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital), HCC -1.4% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital), FAST -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS). -
Info, mis juba pärast eelmise nädala Mario Draghi kõne liikunud, on enne homset EKP kohtumist muutunud konkreetsemaks.
ECB to consider two year loans
Headlines crossing that ECB will lossen collateral for loan criteria -
Monsanto raises Q1 guidance to $0.15-0.20 vs $0.13 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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Warren Buffetti MidAmerican Energy Holdings üksus ostab Californias asuva Topazi projekti maksumusega $ 2 miljardit, kirjutab Bloomberg.
Topazi alternatiivenergiaüksust hakkab arendama projekti müüja First Solar (FSLR).
Antud uudis peaks olema positiivne kogu solari sektorile ja eriti FSLR aktsiale, mis on viimaste kuude jooksul kaotanud ligi 2/3 oma väärtusest.
Eelturul kaupleb FSLR 5% plusspoolel, $ 48,5 kandis. -
UK Telegraph rare earth metal shortage: REE, MCP, SHZ, AVL, GSM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/8938791/Rare-earth-metal-shortage-a-ticking-time-bomb.html -
No Market for Daytraders
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Dec 07, 2011 | 8:12 AM EST
"Anyone who wants to sell you overnight success or wealth is not interested in your success; they are interested in your money."
-- Bo Bennett
The early action is fairly quiet this morning, which is a change after five sizable gaps in the last eight days of trading. This inclination toward strong overnight action has produced a stunning gain of 8.32% in a very short period of time, but it isn't nearly as easy as it sounds.
What has made trading very tricky is that intraday there has actually been a net loss over the past seven days. If you bought the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at the open each day and sold it at the close, you actually lost $0.13, while those who bought SPY at the close and sold the open the next morning made over $10.00. In other words, daytraders who go to cash every night have been completely shut out of the vast majority of this powerful action.
That combined with the lack of any hot areas of momentum action is why I'm hearing so much moaning and groaning from traders lately. Many traders aren't carrying much exposure overnight because they are concerned about the news risk out of Europe and don't want to be caught by a surprise negative open, and then they just don't have many opportunities once trading starts for the day.
This overnight caution is understandable, but the problem is that all the news out of Europe has been positive lately and the market continues to be optimistic that more good news is likely to emerge in the next couple days. The ECB meets on Thursday and is expected to cut interest rates. After that another European summit meeting is taking place on Friday, and there is a wide range of expectations about what may emerge.
The last three summit meetings have ultimately disappointed, so the opportunity for some sell-the-news action is quite high, especially given how much we have run. This market has been very tough on the bears lately, however, and they are going to be gun shy. The big problem for the bulls is that there seems to be growing complacency that Europe is really saved this time. That greatly increases the risk for some sudden downside. The fact that we have quite a few frustrated bulls who have been underinvested during this move increases the opportunity for volatility as more European news hits.
I've been maintaining a generally bullish bias for a couple weeks now mainly because it was my view that too many market players were not well-positioned for upside and too many were struggling to produce performance to catch up with benchmark indices. Positive seasonality was an added boost. I'm now looking for a bit more choppiness in the near term, but I don't expect it to be easy to trade.
Typically, when the market goes up over 8% in seven days, it means there has been a rush to buy so there no longer is this poor positioning to drive things. As I discussed above, this rally has been unusual, however, as all the gains have come overnight. As a consequence, many market players never gained the type of exposure that they would have liked, and many are still hungry to buy dips. That is likely to keep some bids under this market and I'm not expecting any major trend shift soon. It has also been a very tough year for many hedge funds and aggressive money managers, and they are going to be watching for chances to get in and catch up.
At this point, I'm trying to be cute and catch a little downside in the short term. Knocking out quick intraday trades has been extremely hard because of the lack of intraday movement, but I'm hopeful that as we move beyond Europe next week, we'll have more natural chart development that will allow some longer holding periods.
I'm looking for another fairly quiet day today as we await European news the next couple days. There should be a little pushing and shoving for positioning in front of the news, and my short-term thesis is that some may anticipate a sell-the-news reaction and give us some near-term weakness. I'm looking for a trade there and, of course, will continue to seek out good individual charts as well. -
Netflix showing relative strength off the open following the House passage of an amended Video Privacy Protection Act late yesterday that allows Netflix (NFLX) customers to post and share rental info on social media sites like Facebook
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SodaStream spikes to highs; strength attributed to chatter that co could distribute products to WalMart
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Yandex jumps to highs of the day; strength attributed to Telegraph story about deal with Facebook
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/russianow/technology/8937922/Yandex-Facebook-music.html -
S&P places ratings on seven Portuguese banks on watch negative; negative watch reflects possible sovereign downgrade to Portugal
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Täna Portugal, homme kõik Euroopa pangad.
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Kui Saksamaa ja Prantsusmaa mängivad ,, pokkerit,, reeglitega, kus väikseim panus on riik L - Euroopas, siis S&P stiil on, we trade world :)
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Market pulling back as more headlines from S&P cross wires, suggesting EU's AAA may be cut by S&P
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Affymax Inc. kauplemine peatatud ja hetkel käimas FEDA istung.
Kellel huvi saab jälgida The Street.com live blogi:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11332795/1/affymaxs-fda-panel-live-blog.html -
October Consumer Credit +$7.6 bln vs +$7.0 bln Briefing.com consensus
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AlariÜ
Market pulling back as more headlines from S&P cross wires, suggesting EU's AAA may be cut by S&P
Seal S&P-s on sel nädalal küll kellegi katus minema lennanud. -
BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank AG ja Commerzbank AG samuti S&P poolt ülevaatamisele.
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Qihoo 360 Tech. trades lower on increased volume; move attributed to another cautious report from Citron Research
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See S&P on nagu marutõbine viimasel ajal. Kus nad siis olid, kui probleem tekkima hakkas? Alguses ei saa vedama, lõpus ei saa pidama
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*G-20 CONSIDERING $600B IMF LENDING PROGRAM FOR EUROPE: NIKKEI
See siis põrke põhjuseks. -
IMF denies report of new $600 bln lending plan, according to CNBC
