Börsipäev 14. detsember
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EFSFi ja Hispaania lühiajalise võla oksjonitel näidati eile investorite poolt korralikku nõudlust ning see andis USA sessiooni eel lootust, et pärast esmaspäevast suuremat langust võiksid pullid nautida rohelist päeva. Aga järgnevatel tundidel jooksis läbi piisavalt palju negatiivseid uudiseid, et ostjate tuju ära rikkuda.
Olles kuulnud, kui tugevalt kasvas tänupühade järgne jõulumüük USAs, siis kogu novembri jaemüügi statistika (+0,2% MoM) suutis selgelt ootusi alt vedada. Sentimendile ei tulnud kasuks lisaks meediast läbi jooksnud pealkirjad, et Merkel on jätkuvalt vastu ESMi suurendamisele üle 500 miljardi euro. Ja kuigi FEDi sõnum oli ootuspärane, siis turuosalised ilmselt sügaval sisimas ikka lootsid, et keskpank annab märku valmisolekust majandust vajadusel täiendavalt stimuleerida. FED tõdes eile teatud paranemist tööjõuturul, ent üldiselt jäädi tuleviku väljavaadete osas suhteliselt negatiivseks. Endiselt lubati jätta intressimäärad nulli lähedale kuni 2013.a keskpaigani ning jätkata võlakirjaportfelli duratsiooni pikendamist.
Peale Euroopa tööstustoodangu numbrite ja Suurbritannia tööturustatistika tõenäoliselt makro pool rohkem turuosaliste tähelepanu ei köida. Suurema fookuse all võiks olla Itaalia 2016a võlakirjade oksjon keskkonnas, kus tulusused on hakanud taas tõusma, kajastades investorite vähenevat riskiisu. Jätkuvalt on lahtine S&P otsus Euroopa riikide krediidireitingute osas, mida käesoleval nädalal oodatakse.
Itaalia 5a võlakirja yield
Tänane makrokalender:
11.30 Suurbritannia novembri töötuabiraha taotlused
12.00 Eurotsooni oktoobri tööstustoodangu muutus
12.00 Itaalia võlakirjaoksjon
USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad hetkel päeva tippude juures (+0,3%), kuid Euroopa indeksid on võtmas eilsele USA langusele järgi ning avanemas 0,4% miinuspoolel. -
Suurbritannia töötururaport tuli oodatust veidi parem: töötuabiraha taotlejate arv kasvas novembris 3 000 võrra vs oodatud 13 700 inimest ja Claimant töötusmäär jäi seejuures püsima 5,0% peale, kuigi oodati 0,1 protsendipunktilist tõusu. GBPUSD +0,22% ja kaupleb 1,5510 taseme juures.
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Itaalia võlakirjaoksjoni tulemused üsna sarnassed septembri oksjoniga
Italian BTP auction for EUR 3bln, 4.75% Sep'16, bid/cover 1.417 vs. Prev. 1.470 (yield 6.470% vs. Prev. 6.290%) -
Eurotsooni tööstustoodangu kasvutempo jätkab aeglustumist ning on kooskõlas infoga, mida on siiani peegeldanuid PMI küsitlused. Viimaste osas saame juba homme teada värsked detsembri näitajaid.
Eurozone Industrial Production SA (Oct) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -2.0%)
Eurozone Industrial Production WDA (Oct) Y/Y 1.3% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.2%) -
FSLR toob 2011 alla ja init 2012 guido ka ilus just ei ole?
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SQNS -29.6%, FSLR -13.6%, JOY -3.4%, FORM -2.8%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SLV -2.5%, HL -1.5%, MT -1.3%, SLW -1.2%, RIO -0.6%, GLD -0.1%, .
Solar names are under pressure following FSLR guidance: ENER -11.8%, YGE -4.9%, SPWR -3.3%, TSL -3.2%, STP -2.1%.
Other news: LNG -9.2% (Cheniere Energy to sell 33 mln shares of common stock), LIVE -5.4% (modesty pulling back), ESRX -2.6% (Express Scripts discloses update on contractual dispute), HTS -2.5% (Hatteras Financial declared Q4 dividend of $0.90 per common share, prior $1.00 per common share), CAT -0.6% (to sell part of Bucyrus Distribution Business to Sime Darby Industrial).
Analyst comments: ACOM -2.1% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), CGV -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan ), RHI -1.3% (ticking lower, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust), MO -1% (ticking lower, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), DLR -0.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman). -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: EONC +52% (thinly traded), BRCM +6.6%.
Other news: NCT +11.4% (makes $44 mln investment in Excess Mortgage Servicing Rights), AVP +6.3% (Avon to separate roles of Chairman and CEO), GCI +3.5% (ticking higher; attributed to positive mention in Barron's), ESV +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: GNOM +10.4% (initiated with a Buy at MLV), APKT +3.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Morgan Keegan), FLT +1.7% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), VRTX +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Credit Suisse), PCLN +0.7% (resumed with a Buy at Goldman). -
Wait for the Action to Shift
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Dec 14, 2011 | 8:37 AM
"Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." --English Proverb
After a disappointing day Tuesday, the market is gapping down as the euro continues to break down. Some are blaming the weak action on the failure of the Federal Reserve to make any moves yesterday, but none were expected. The real reason this market is struggling is because we still have no clarity in Europe and there doesn't seem to be any major solution forthcoming.
I've been hopeful that we might put Europe aside and manage a little upside action into the end of the year. Sentiment is negative, market players are poorly positioned and in need of relative performance, and positive seasonality is at its peak. The technical picture isn't great -- but it isn't bad, either. The conditions for some sort of contrary action are good but, so far, there are no signs of buying interest. Those who have been anticipating a rally have been caught leaning the wrong way.
The biggest obstacle for the bulls lately is the lack of energy in this market. Many market players seem to have given up and there is very little, if any, speculative action, momentum or leadership. Traders cannot get anything going, which causes discouragement and moves more money to the sidelines. We need to see a break in the cycle of dead action and discouragement. If and when that occurs, we should see a decent spike.
The good news is that this lack of interest and downright negativity creates a big pool of potential buyers, but that is irrelevant unless they want to buy. Many market players like the idea of betting against the crowd but the vast majority of the time the crowd is right. The way to make money is to run with them as long as you can and then change direction when things are too stretched and we rebound in the other direction.
One of the easiest things to do when using a contrary approach to the market is to move prematurely. Folks who try to call tops and bottoms are always early. They are convinced a turn is coming and they move too fast.
The way to guard against this is to wait for the action to shift. Instead of making big bets that a shift in the market is going to come, wait for an actual shift and then act. Sure, you will be a little late and miss out on some gains, but that is cheap insurance.
My strategy for dealing with this market is to assume the worst, hope for the best and not act until there is some positive action. I've been maintaining a positive mindset about some good end-of-year action, but have not had an opportunity to act on that thinking since the price action in the market is so poor. I buy when stocks are positive, not because I'm hopeful they will be.
We obviously have major headwinds with Europe, and the market doesn't seem able to move past that for even a little while. I'm going to continue to watch for signs that the focus is shifting and I'm prepared to act, but I have no desire to fight the bears right now.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is giving a speech this morning, and that has taken us off the early lows, but it is going to take more than some slight green at the open to draw in buyers. Stay defensive, but be ready to act. The chances of some sort of year-end rally are still there. We just have to be patient and see if it develops. -
Netflix: Zero Hedge discusses possibility of undisclosed SEC investigation, citing a Disclosure Insight report. Apparently report was first made available to Disclosure Insight subscribers on Dec. 5
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-- Germany's Angela Merkel says Eurozone fiscal union 'is not completed, but it has been started, and I believe it is irrevocable'
-- Angela Merkel says Britain will remain an important member of the EU despite David Cameron's refusal to sign up to a new pact
-- Merkel says "it is beyond doubt for me that Britain will in future continue to be an important partner in the European Union"
-- TIME's person of the year is the 'Protester' -
Äripäevas täna enamjaolt masendavad pealkirjad:
-Enamik ökonomiste ootavad globaalselt masu
-Vene tatar kallines kahe nädalaga 40%
-Eesti Pank: Eesti majandus tõmbab järsult pidurit
-Lisaraha IMFile euroala abiks koguneb vaevaliselt
-Jaano Vink: taevamannat loota ei tasu
-Suurbritannia töötus kõrgeim pärast 1994. aastat
-IMF: Kreeka reformid ebapiisavad
-Austria panku ähvardab Ungaris võlaorjade mäss
-Priit Perens: raha kättesaadavus langeb
-Kui midagi saab untsu minna, siis ka läheb
-Euro kukkus läbi 1,30 dollari
-Itaalia maksis võlakirjadele rekordtootlust
-Kulla hind jätkab kolinal kukkumist
-Riho Unt: raha jääb finantssektoris vähemaks
APPI -
See võib tähendada ainult ühte - aeg osta!
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Kulla hinna kukkumise peale küll kuidagi kurvastada ei oska. Investorite raha jahivad ju aktsiad, võlakirjad ja kuld. Kui kuld kukub- raha vabaneb ja ehk ta "odavusest" hoolimata, ostma ei meelita. Kusagil peab rikas inime või ka institutsioon oma raha hoidma. Ehk mõni ostabki siis aktsiaid, mine tea.
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Need ÄP pealkirjad oleks ainult siis masendavad, kui viimane uudis oleks "Vaatamata kvaliteetse nööri suurele nõudlusele, langes hind 50%".
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Chevron: Headlines crossing that Brazil prosecutors seeking 20 bln reais in damages and looking to suspend all CVX activity in Brazil
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Transocean (RIG): Asked by Brazilian prosecutors to halt activity in the country
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Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke concludes meeting with Republican Senators; A few members note Mr. Bernanke's concern with Europe; Sen Corker notes Mr. Bernanke said there were no more plans for U.S. to fund IMF
