LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 16. detsember

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  • Oodatust parem uudistevoog aitas eile aktsiaturgudel näidata esimest plussi selle nädala jooksul. Kuigi põrge jäi võrdlemisi kesiseks siis näib, et täna ollakse valmis minema teisele katsele, kui S&P 500 futuur kaupleb hetkel 0,5% jagu kõrgemal.

    Aga kui eilse üsna massiivses koguses makrostatistika peale näidati võrdlemisi tagasihoidlikku reaktsiooni, siis tänane suhteliselt tühi kalender ei anna eriti lootust suuremaid ülespoole liikumisi näha. Küll aga peavad täna kõne mitmed turu poolt jälgitavad isikud, eeskätt Mario Draghi, Inglise Keskpanga juht Mervyn King ja EFSFi juht Klaus Regling. Lisaks seisab Monti valitsus täna silmitsi usaldushääletusega, mis võimaldaks kiirendada väljapakutud kärpekava rakendamist. Ainsa makrona avaldatakse kell 15.30 USA novembri tarbijahinnaindeksi muutus.
  • Järgmisel nädalal on ühe olulise teemana üleval Euroopa Keskpanga 3 aasta LTRO, mille osas on hakatud arvama, et Euroopa pangad võivad kasutada võimalust laenata piiramatus koguses raha 1% juures ning seejärel investeerida valitsuste võlakirjadesse, mis pakuvad oluliselt kõrgemat yieldi ning sellega toetada riigivõlakirjade turgu. Seda teesi toetab fakt, et 2009. aastal 614 miljardi euro ulatuses väljastatud 1a LTROst investeeriti hinnanguliselt pool valitsuste võlakirjadesse. Aga viimase kahe aastaga on võlakirjaturgudel palju muutunud ning praegu tunnevad investorid muret pankade suhtes, kes omavad suuremat perifeeriariikide võlakirjaportfelli, mis on tinginud paljude puhul positsioonide likvideerimise. Tänane FT kirjutab, et pankade jaoks ei pruugi EKP likviidsuse süstimine valitsuste võlakirjadsse praegu väga atraktiivse variandina tunduda.

    Francesco Ghizzoni, UniCredit chief executive, said earlier this week that “it wouldn’t be logical” to use ECB funding to buy more government debt, and he would prefer lending to the real economy.

    A person close to French banking management said: “The [French] banks aren’t going to go out and say it explicitly, but the general feeling is it’s not a good idea.”

    Smaller Italian or Spanish banks may still attempt the trade, according to Huw van Steenis of Morgan Stanley. But “demand by larger domestic banks may be limited, and demand by non-domestic banks for bonds will be virtually zero”.
  • Eurostat avaldas täna oktoobrikuu väliskaubanduse andmed, mis näitasid, et eurotsooni eksport vähenes võrreldes septembriga 1.9%, import langes 0.7% ning väliskaubanduse ülejääk kahanes eelneva kuu 2.2 miljardi euro pealt 300 miljoni euroni. Saksamaa eksport vähenes oktoobris 1.7% ning Prantsusmaa eksport kahanes 0.4%. Lisaks öeldi, et eurotsooni palgad kasvasid kolmandas kvartalis võrreldes aastagusega 2.6%. Kuna eile avaldatud andmete kohaselt ulatus inflatsioon euroalas septembris 3%-ni, siis indikeerib see reaalpalkade langust.
  • Bloombergis on artikkel, kus kirjutatakse Londoni luksuskaupu müüvate kaupmeeste hirmudest ja ootustest jõulude eel.
    Kuigi Tiffany&Co (TIF) esindaja ütleb, et tõenäoliselt müüakse tänavu sama palju kui möödunud aastal, siis ebakindlus tuleviku osas teeb ettevõtted siiski väga murelikuks.
    Tavaliselt saavad jõulude eel finantssektoris töötavad inimesed, kes on tavaliselt ka kallimate poekettide peamine sihtgrupp, kätte oma boonused. Paraku on boonused viimaste aastate jooksul küll üsna kokku kuivanud. Londonis arvatakse, et tänavu saavad pangatöötajad kokku 4,2 miljardit naela, mis on viimase kümne aasta madalaim tase, sest pankade kasumid on märkimisväärselt vähenenud. Paljud pangad on teatanud ka koondamistest, mistõttu ei raatsi boonusesaajad kallite kingituste peale eriti raha kulutada.
  • RIMM, mis eile järelturul oma kolmanda kvartali tulemused teatas, ei suuda positiivseid emotsioone tekitada ei investorites ega ka analüütikutes.
    Deutsche Bank, mis juba mõnda aega on aktsia suhtes negatiivne olnud, kinnitab täna oma Müü reitingut ja toob hinnasihi veelgi madalamale - $ 14 pealt $ 10 peale.
    Analüütikud kritiseerivad teravalt firma kaksikjuhtimist ja samuti on nende jaoks arusaamatu, kuhu kaob ettevõtte raha.

    Management continues to exacerbate an already dire situationWe believe he company’s current management structure is unworkable. Having two CEOs has hindered decision making in our view and we feel the Board needs to take stronger action to right the ship, but it appears unable to do so.

    Where is the Cash?Over the last twelve months (LTM) the company generated $2.9 billion in operating profits, but over that same period the company saw its cash balancedecrease by $969 million. It is not clear where the cash is going. LTM capex was$1.0 billion, and acquisition of intangibles of $1.5 billion. The benefits of all thisspending are not clear. We think the company is seriously mis-allocatingcapital. Despite ostensibly being highly profitable, we find it concerning that theygenerate so little cash
  • SINA on sattunud eelturul uue müügisurve alla, kuna Hiina ametnikud nõuavad, et blogipidajad peavad end registreerima oma tõelisi nime all. Antud nõue puudutab kõiki 250 miljonit Weibo.com kasutajat, sõltumata nende asukohast, kuna veebilehe omanik SINA on Hiina ettevõte.

    Beijing authorities on Friday ordered Internet microblogs to require users to register with their real names, a tightening of rules aimed at controlling China's rapidly growing social networks.

    An announcement posted online said all microblog companies registered in the capital had to enforce real name registration within three months.

    The rules, jointly issued by the Beijing government, police and Internet management office, apparently apply to all 250 million users of the hugely popular Twitter-like service Weibo.com, regardless of location, because its operator, Chinese Web portal Sina Corp., is headquartered in Beijing.

  • Veel RIMM-st: Herb Greenberg arvab, et RIMM-i jaoks on mäng läbi.

    Herb Greenberg :further to $rimm, by the time the new phone comes out, more customers will have sampled new platforms. imho: game over
  • RIMM - täpselt point, miks täna veel julgeks RIMM-i shortida. Vähe shorditudki, kuigi ega selles erilist ilu ei ole. Hommiku peale ehk veel mõni kuri target, mille pealt loodaks, et RIMM $13 alla vaatab.
  • Itaalia valitsuse eelarveplaan võitis usaldushääletuse parlemendi alamkojas ja nüüd liigub see edasi senatisse.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ZQK +7.2%, ADBE +5.6%, AKS +2.7% (light volume), DEER +1.5% (says is unaware of any negative corporate development following yesterday's late session sell-off; co is on schedule to pay dividend and reaffirms FY11 guidance), HEI +0.5% (thinly traded).

    M&A news: RRR +58.3% and URI +3.7% (United Rentals confirms it will acquire RRR for $18/share; URI announces $200 mln repurchase program; expected to be accretive to URI's cash earnings per share in the first full year after closing), ISTA +51.3% (Valeant Pharmaceuticals proposes to acquire ISTA Pharmaceuticals for $6.50 Per Share in Cash), CRYP +35.4% (CryptoLogic announces board agreed to offer for CryptoLogic by Amaya Gaming Group at $2.50 share), MRT +31.8% (Mortons Restaurant Group to be acquired by Fertitta for $6.90/share), CHRS +4.5% (Charming Shoppes may see some interest following story suggesting potential M&A).

    Select financial related names showing strength: BCS +2.5%, HBC +1.9%, DB +1.7%, C +1.4%, BAC +1.3%.

    Metals/mining stocks trading higher: JAG +7%, TC +5.2%, RIO +4%, MT +3.5%, HL +3%, SLV +2.6%, BBL +2.6%, GOLD +2.3%, BHP +2.2%, GLD +2.1%, ABX +2.1%, GDX +2%, SLW +1.3%.

    Other news: YRCW +9.5% (trades under YRCWD, sells assets of its Glen Moore Truckload Subsidiary; terms not disclosed), MCP +4.1% (announce it Secures Government Approval To Conduct Heavy Rare Earth Exploratory Drilling), HOLX +1.2% (FDA has approved its Cervista HTA system for use with the Company's previously approved Cervista human papillomavirus HR test), WU +0.9% (reaches agreement with IRS; co will make cash payments of approx. $220 mln to resolve all issues related to the restructuring of its international operations in 2003), PFE +0.8% (reported 'positive' results from Phase 3 Trial Of Lyrica (prebabalin) Capsules CV In Restless Legs Syndrome; top-line results show lyrica met all co-primary endpoints), AMGN +0.6% (CEO announces plan to retire with Robert Bradway to become CEO on May 23, 2012; Sharer will continue as Chairman of the Board until end of 2012, upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman).

    Analyst comments: ATHN +3% (upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer, upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink), CCL +1.4% (ticking higher, upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC Securities), NTSP +0.7% (initiated with a Outperform at Morgan Keegan).
  • November Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus
    November CPI M/M 0.0% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus
    November CPI Y/Y Headline +3.4%, Core +2.2%

  • Ungari, IMF ja EU vahelised uue päästepaketi arutelud katkesid täna.
  • According to the Australian Finance Review, banks down under "have been given 1 week by regulators to stress test how they would handle a spike in joblessness, plunge in home prices spurred by EU debt crisis."
    -- Australian Prudential Regulation Authority envision worst-case scenario of 12% unemployment, 30% drop in house prices, 40% fall in commercial property values, AFR say
    -- Banks will assume that write-offs, other mitigation measures are unavailable; later stress tests might allow for such steps, AFR says
    -- Australia’s banks have A$87.2b of exposure to Europe, or 2.7% of assets, with A$74.6b of it mostly tied to bank borrowers in France, Germany, Netherlands, AFR says, citing RBA statistics
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RIMM -10.5% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO ), ACN -2.3%.

    M&A news: PGN -1.1% (Duke Energy and Progress Energy moving forward with planned merger).

    Other news: DPTR -42.4% (announced today that it and certain of its subsidiaries filed voluntary petitions for relief under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court), FTWR -20.8% (announces receipt of Nasdaq listing compliance notice and events of default on convertible senior secured notes due 2012 & senior secured notes due 2016), STEM -11.4% (announces proposed public offering of common stock and warrants), CVC -6.8% (Cablevision COO Tom Rutledge informs co he will resign, downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA/Merrill), SINA -5.2% (Beijing officials to require microblogs to get real names of its users, according to reports), AFSI -4.9% (announces proposed private offering of convertible debt), FRO -3.4% (announces restructuring update), AFFY -3.3% (Affymax and Takeda provide update on Peginesatide commercialization rights in Japan).

    Analyst comments: ERIC -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), SAP -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill).
  • S&P Cautious Headlines: Says EU failure to address sovereign debt problems and could lead to a more pronounced downturn; sees more severe recession in Europe next year;
  • Hungary official says Hungary held informal talks with IMF/EU and formal talks will start in January
  • Headlines from Fed's Dudley Speech continues to cross wires; says can not imagine a circumstance under which the Fed would buy foreign sovereign debt; notes that it could accept European debt as collateral for discount loan window with appropriate haircut
  • Fitch places Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland and Cyprus on rating watch Negative
  • Zynga initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $13
  • FITCH AFFIRMS FRANCE AT 'AAA'; OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEGATIVE
  • Saxo Bank on taas oma järgmise aasta prognoosidega väljas, mida paljud loevad tihti üsna äärmuslikeks ja näib, et Saxo ise klassifitseerib neid samuti vastavalt. http://www.saxobank.com/lp/outrageous-predictions

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