Börsipäev 28. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Väikeste kõikumistega lõpetati eilne päev USA turgudel nullis, kui käive jäi madalaimaks sel aastal....kokku vahetas NYSE-l omanikku veidi üle 2 miljardi aktsia ehk ligikaudu 50% vähem selle aasta keskmisest käibest. Tarbijate kindlustunne kujunes küll oodatust paremaks ja sellest oleks ilmselt piisanud ralli jätkuks, ent Case-Schilleri indeksi järgi ei näi kinnisvarahindade langus jätkuvalt pidurdumismärke näitavat ning alla ootuste tulid ka regionaalsed töötleva tööstuse küsitlused.
Makro poolel tänane päev midagi huvitavat ei too, küll aga kavatseb Itaalia müüa üle 11 miljardi euro väärtuses kuni kahe aasta pikkuseid võlakirju, kus loodetakse näha korralikku nõudlust tänu EKP likviidsussüstile. Olulisem saab siiski olema homne oksjon, kus müügile tulevad pikema duratsiooniga võlakirjad ja seega peaks paremini olema näha, kui edukalt finantssüsteemi pumbatud raha valitsuse võlakirjaturgu toetab.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,2% punases. -
Tänane FT kirjutab, et pärast 490 miljardi euro suurust refinantseerimisoperatsiooni on paljud finantsasutused kasutanud võimalust ning parkinud jõulude ajal rekordilise summa ehk 412 miljardit eurot tagasi EKP lühiajalisele deposiidile. Iseensest ei ole selles midagi üllatuslikku, kuna kogu välja laenatud rahale pole võimalik paari päevag kohe rakendust leida ning sarnast hüpet oleme näinud ka varasemate EKP likviidusoperatsioonide puhul. Küll on aga Euroopa võlakriis muutnud EKP juures raha hoiustamise viimase poole aasta jooksul järjest populaasemaks ning eelseisev tihe kohustuste lunastamise ja ülerullimise graafik tekitab küsimuse, kui palju julgemaks täiendav likviidsus pankasid uute investeeringute tegemisel üldse muudabki.
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McDonald'si aktsia, mis on kugenud nagu väsimatu igiliikur ülespoole, jõudis eile esimest korda ajaloos üle 100 dollari. Ettevõte kaupleb 17,5x järgmise aasta kasumit, mis valuatsiooni poole pealt ei jäta kuigi palju tõusuruumi arvestades, et viimase viie aasta keskmine ettevaatav PE on olnud 16 juures. Küll võib aga veidi turvasemat kohta otsiv raha valuatsiooni puhul silma kinni pigistada ning lugeda aktsiat atraktiivseks ka praegustel tasemetel
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Alates 2006. aastast on netimängurlus USAs olnud keelatud ja mina selle sektori ettevõtteid hinnates üldiselt USA uuesti avamise potentsiaaliga arvestanud pole. Pigem olen vaadanud seda kui tasuta käes olevat optsiooni.
23. detsembril avaldatud teade paneb aga mõtlema, et äkki peaks selle potentsiaaliga siiski rohkem arvestama. Viimasel ajal olen siia foorumisse kirjutanud mõned kommentaarid Playtechi (PTEC.L) kohta ja aktsia on tundunud mulle atraktiivne ka ilma USA uuesti avamiseta. Küll võiks siis aga 23. detsembri uudist pidada põhjuseks, miks Playtechi aktsia täna üle 10% plussis on.
Eile olid Suurbritannia börsid suletud ja uudisele reageerimine toimub seetõttu täna.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration appears to have softened a U.S. ban on Internet gambling.
In a legal opinion posted Friday, the Justice Department said online betting unrelated to sporting events falls outside the reach of federal law.
The U.S. government has long considered such gambling illegal when it crosses state lines.
The gambling industry is worth billions worldwide but many operators are based overseas. Washington has cracked down on some of them, and a 2006 law forbade financial institutions from processing funds for most online wagering.
Because of the difficulty in enforcing age and other requirements, the issue has divided lawmakers and the industry. But several states have been studying plans for web betting within states.
The opinion letter was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Link uudisele on siin. -
Võimas ralli Playtechi aktsias - samas arvestades senist negatiivset sentimendi kogu sektori ja just Playtechi vastu, oli see uudis enam kui piisav, et aktsia ülespoole liikuma panna. Hetkel siis 282 penni ja +22%.
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Itaalia valitsus müüs 9 miljardi euro eest 6 kuu võlga intressiga 3,251%, mis on poole jagu madalam 25. novembri oksjonist, kus intressiks oli 6,5%. Bid to cover 1,69 vs 1,47 eelmisel sarnasel oksjonil.
Nullis liikunud USA futuurid on selle peale veidi kosunud ning kauplevad nüüd 0,2% jagu plusspoolel. -
Turu-uuringute firma ComScore andmetel kulutasid USA tarbijad selle aasta pühadehooajal internetipoodides $35 miljardit, mida on ca $5 miljardit rohkem kui aasta tagasi. (link)
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CAVM täna huvitav, Piperi tgt to $13 on jumekas.
Vaatamata sellele, et on takeover radaril sektori tõttu, on oma langetuste peale tavaliselt müüki saanud. ära tapetud.
Eile aftekal:
Cavium Networks sees Q4 revenue $56M-$57M vs. consensus $61.62M
The company noted that revenues has been weaker than expected across both the enterprise and service provider as well as the broadband and consumer market segments, segments, and further exasperated by a larger than expected impact of a hub transition at one of its major customers. The company believes that it under shipped to customer end demand in the fourth quarter. Gross margins for the fourth quarter of 2011 are expected to be approximately one percentage point lower than the company's previous guidance, due to the lower sales volume.
Defendid käivad sellega kaasas, nendele oleks võinud tähelepanu osutada ehk openis, aga see $13 ei paneks mind küll defendi mängima. -
Masendav. Lausa masendav. Britid on oma Boxing Day £4,3bn üle ülimalt õnnelikud. Palju kogu perioodi peale kulutati, pole veel selge. Masendav seetõttu, et jänkid ikka ostsid kinkideks sokkide kolmikpakki mis oli Nintendo DS pakendis või feik Wii kestasi jätmaks mulje Wii saamisest kingiks.
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Gapping up
M&A related: CRIC (currently halted; enters into definitive merger agreement with E-House).
A few financial related names showing modest strength: UBS +1.2%, MS +1.0%, HBC +0.8%, BAC +0.7%, C +0.6%.
Other news: IMMU +7.4% (Immunomedics and UCB announce restructuring of Epratuzumab license agreement; IMMU will receive $30 mln; UCB permitted to sublicense in certain territories), FTK +4% (light volume, entered into a Repurchase Agreement with the holders of the Company's 5.25% Senior Secured Convertible Notes due in 2028), NBL +1.4% (announced a natural gas discovery at the Cyprus Block 12 prospect, offshore the Republic of Cyprus), SNY +1.3% (ticking higher following co update on share repurchases).
Analyst comments: END +3.1% (upgraded to Mkt Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw). -
CAVM - afteka käive 200k. Praegu tundub, et alamõõdulised tärisatasid kõhnalt seda vasakusse äärde, aga keegi vasakult poolt pusib seda ka üles.
Vaatan ise 100k käibe pealt, mis seis on, kas saab suuna või (oht lampi käituda, nagu eelmise nädala SFLY on väike, sest cut juba eile väljas) on defendid täna juba eelturul üle. Ostupoolele küll ei asu, kallis aktsia siiski oma pidevate langetustega.
Mõningane tugevus ju lisandub, kui defendi tees on, et 2012 peaks parem olema :) -
Jõulude esimesel pühal aktiveeriti 6.8 miljonit Androidi või iOSi kasutavat seadet, mida on kaks korda rohkem kui aasta tagasi samal ajal. Google ütles, et jõulunädalavahetusel aktiveeriti kokku 3.7 miljonit Androidi seadet. Analüütikud arvavad, et kasvu põhjuseks on nutitelefonide hindade alanemine. 25. detsmebril tõmmati Android Marketist ja iTunesist alla 242 miljonit appi.(link)
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CAVM -6.9%, MRX -3.1%.
M&A related: VRUS -0.7% (ticking lower, filed merger supplement documents; the voluntary withdrawal and re-filing of the Premerger Notification and Report Forms will provide the FTC with additional time).
Analyst comments: MCP -2.1% (target cut to $39 from $57 at JPMorgan), SHLD -1.9% (continued weakness; target cut to $30 from $43 at Goldman; reiterates Sell rating). -
No Predilection for Predictions
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Dec 28, 2011 | 8:43 AM EST | Add a comment
"From the beginning of time, the sorcerer, the interpreter of dreams, the fortune-teller, the charlatan, the quack, the wild medicine-man, the educated physician, the mesmerist, and the hypnotist have made use of the client's imagination to help them in their work. They have all recognized the potency and availability of that force." -- Mark Twain
After a weak finish we are poised to bounce back a little this morning, but it looks as though we have another painfully slow session on the agenda. There is very little news flow to move things but European stocks are trading better after a successful Italian bond auction and that is all we need to put some green on the screens.
The tradition in the news media during this very slow holiday trading is to trot out predictions about the year ahead. It fills space, makes for interesting reading and the typically optimistic bias plays well in this difficult market environment.
The only problem with these predictions is that they are useless when it actually comes to making money. Forecasting the future makes us feel like we are a bit more in control of things and it makes the writers feel like they are profound and insightful. But as events unfold, our hopes and dreams about how things might play out are quickly forgotten.
It is always a little comical to look back at predictions made in the past. A few folks will get lucky and be right about a few things, but the great bulk of predictions are no more helpful than a coin flip. Most of the time they look downright naïve in the harsh glare of the rearview mirror.
A prediction story in USA Today last year, which featured five "Wall Street heavyweights," had the headline: "Experts agree: Get over your fear and get back into stocks." The gist of the article was that the S&P 500 would be up as much as 21% while the most pessimistic prediction was for a gain of only 9.1%. A variety of picks were proposed and if the overall results beat the indices, I'd be surprised.
Needless to say, these predictions probably didn't help anyone make any money. It might have sold a few newspapers, but the story probably helped some folks cultivate an incorrect mindset and unrealistic expectations that cost them money.
There is no shame admitting that you don't know what's going to happen in the year ahead. In fact, we should proclaim our ignorance loud and clear. We all have things we'd like to see happen, and it's good to be a positive thinker, but coming up with predictions and theories to justify our hopes and dreams isn't going to make us better traders.
One prediction I will make about 2012 is that the market will do what it always does: give us good trading at times and tough slogging at other times. That is how it always plays out. I have no idea what the timing will be but I know-- without a doubt -- that we will have some periods of time when we will rack up some great gains, and we are going to have some tough times when the market is extremely frustrating.
That is all you need to know about the year ahead. Conditions will change at various times and if we adapt as that happens, we will do just fine. I'm always optimistic about the year ahead because I know there will be opportunities, and if I work at it I'll find a few them.
I will go out on a limb this morning and predict that the action today is going to be very slow, but I'll be happy to change my mind if that changes. That probably isn't the way to become famous as a fortune-teller, but it works for me. -
CAVM - 100k täis, aga mingit isu ei ole torkida. Nagu peremeheta tuletõrjevoolik. Päris müüjaid ei tundu olevat ja ostja ka pushuppija. Paper short@27 :)
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ymeramees
CAVM - 100k täis, aga mingit isu ei ole torkida. Nagu peremeheta tuletõrjevoolik. Päris müüjaid ei tundu olevat ja ostja ka pushuppija. Paper short@27 :)
MCP-d võiks kuskilt shortida aga vist liiga riski ,turg liiga õhuke? -
EUR/USD on millegipärast pihta saamas...hetkel ühtegi uudist silma pole jäänud
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Euro vs US Dollar Sets fresh session lows- Dealers note that Italy to sell bonds on Thursday, Dec 29th and the 10-year BTP yield is around the 6.85% despite the decent Bill auction earlier today
Naljamehed -
dailyfx....Very odd price action here. Chatter suggests end of year balancing, perhaps. Don't look too deep into this for now.
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CAVM paper loss, mul on mingi tõmme nende ajuvabade peale. MCP etem igal juhul :)
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Diamond Foods trades to HoD on increased volume; Hearing move attributed to chatter related to potential Einhorn stake
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EURUSD teinud hetke seisuga uueks päevasiseseks põhjaks $1,2944, kus kaubeldi viimati selle aasta jaanuaris.
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MCP täna taas tugeva müügisurve all ja selle põhjuseks JPM negatiivne kommentaar, millega analüütikud kärbivad MCP prognoose ja ka hinnasihti $ 57 pealt $ 39 peale.
Põhjuseks eelkõige Hiina teadaanne haruldaste muldmetallide ekspordikvootide suurendamine 2012. aastaks. Kvoodid pandi paika terveks aastaks (tavaliselt on Hiina pannud kvoodid paika ainult pooleks aastaks) ja alates 2005. aastast pole Hiina eksporti suurendanud.
Sellest tulenevalt surve muldmetallide hindadele jätkub.
Lowering Estimates and Reducing PT to $39 on Lower Rare Earth
We are lowering our estimates and reducing our price target for MCP to $39 from $57. The decreases reflect our belief that the new Chinese export quotas announced today for 2012, coupled with ramping production
from Molycorp and Lynas, will put additional downward pressure on rare earth prices. We also believe that China’s announcing a full-year quota (instead of its previous practice of issuing quotas in half-year installments) takes away a potential catalyst for MCP as China will not be able (unless it were to alter the current plan for 2012) to lower the quotas in the second half of the year.
Aktsia hetkel kauplemas ligi 11% miinuspoolel, $ 25 taseme kandis.
