Börsipäev 30. detsember
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USA indeksitel õnnestus eile sulguda päeva tippude juures ca 1%lise tõusuga, millega S&P 500 suutis peaaegu tasa teha eelmise päeva kukkumise ning jõuda aasta lõikes uuesti positiivsele territooriumile. Agressiivsemalt näib kasumivõtt toimuvat aga seal, kus aasta peale on kogunenud korralik tootlus...eeskätt just kullas, mis lõpetas -1,5%ga kuuendat järjestikust sessiooni madalamal ning kaupleb nüüd juba ca 18% alla oma augusti tippude.
Aasia on USA eeskujul kauplemas viimasel päeval positiivsete meeleolude saatel, kuigi mõningast ettevaatlikust süstib HSBC avaldatud Hiina töötleva tööstuse detsembrikuu lõplik PMI näit, mis kujunes esialgsest numbrist (49,0) 0,3 punkti võrra kesisemaks. Siiski püsis näitaja kõrgemal võrreldes novembri 47,7 punktiga.
Tänane päev ühtegi olulist makrouudist ei too.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% võrra miinuspoolel. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BLIN +6.2% (thinly traded).
M&A related: ELN +1.1% (light volume, move attributed to rumors of possible Johnson and Johnson bid).
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: UXG +2.7%, GG +1.8%, GOLD +1.8%, AG +1.5%, GLD +1.4%, GDX +1.4%, IAG +1.4%, SLW +1.1%, HL +1%, KGC +0.9%, SLV +0.8%, AEM +0.6%, AUY +0.5%, RIO +0.3%.
Other news: MOSY +18.9% (ticking higher, MoSys and Tessera's Invensas entered patent purchase agreement; TSRA unit to buy patents for $35 mln), LNG +5.1% (SAC Capital Advisors discloses 5.7% stake in 13G filing), FRO +1.7% (still checking for anything specific). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SMA -1.6% (light volume).
Other news: AMR -40.3% (trading lower in after hours on reports that of NYSE delisting), DCTH -7.5% (discloses Sales Agreement to sell $39.75 mln shares of common stock through an 'at the market' equity offering), PRMW -5.4% (files $75 mln mixed securities shelf offering), FPP -2.1% (files for 7.98 mln share common stock offering by holders), IPSU -2% (has not filed its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year; not received audited financial statements from Louisiana Sugar Refining). -
Hispaania valitsus, kelle sooviks oli tänavu vähendada oma eelarve defitsiiti mulluselt 9,2% pealt 6% peale, tõdeb et eesmärke ei suudeta täita ning defitsiit jääb tegelikkuses 8% juurde, mis tähendab, et ka järgmise aasta 4.4% saavutamine muutub suhteliselt keeruliseks.
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Kui suur defitsiit rahas mõõdetuna on?
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Erko jutule lisaks, et Hispaania vähendab ühingutele makstavaid toetusi, ei palgata avalikku sektorisse töötajaid juurde ja külmutatakse miinimumpalk praegusele tasemele. Ajutiselt tõstetakse ka makse ja pensionid tõusevad samas 1% võrra, vastavalt THI tõusule.
Maksutõusu näol kehtestatakse lisamaks "keskmisest kõrgema" hinnaga kodudele, millega loodetakse koguda kuus miljardit eurot. -
See vist peaks olema õige joonis....novembri seisuga näitab 52,4 miljardit eurot
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We Lost Joy, We Lost Fun
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Dec 30, 2011 | 8:16 AM
Life is a series of natural and spontaneous changes. Don't resist them - that only creates sorrow. Let reality be reality. Let things flow naturally forward in whatever way they like. -- Lao Tzu
We close the books on 2011 and, for the most part, market players are happy to say goodbye. The indices will finish roughly flat for the year with the Dow doing better than the IWM, and the Nasdaq somewhere in the middle. But the performance masks how challenging the market has been this past year.
The problem isn't that traders have racked up big losses -- in fact, I heard far fewer complaints in years when the indices were down big -- but that it has been so tough to gain relative outperformance. There have been obvious structural changes in the manner in which many stocks trade and that has caused widespread struggles for many as they battle the computer algorithms, the macroeconomic headwinds and the futility of individual stock picking.
The market always presents formidable challenges. If it was easy, it wouldn't be so potentially lucrative. But what has been so troubling about the action for most of the year is how joyless the trading has been. Even when we have had some good rallies and big size moves there has been a lack of excitement and optimism. Traders never really embraced the market with the zeal that we have seen in the past. There has been little fun along the way and that has changed the nature of trading quite a bit.
The most obvious evidence of the lack of any real love for this market is that we have had seven-straight months of outflows from stock funds as of the end of November and total withdraws for the year are more than $100 billion. That isn't a huge number, but it highlights the lack of interest in stocks that has plagued us often. After surviving the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008, market players are still quite skeptical about the market.
The reasons for this attitude aren't hard to understand. Market players have had their hands full dealing with a lousy economy, housing prices that are still declining and stubbornly high unemployment. It is tough to be an aggressive speculator when the economic news never really seems to improve. Everyone has been touched directly and indirectly by the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and we see that reflected in the way that people approach the stock market.
The challenges we faced in 2011 aren't going to suddenly end as we kick off 2012, but at least we can put them behind us and start off with a positive mindset. The great thing about trading and the stock market is that we can have a fresh start at any time we choose. We can clear the decks and start over again in a snap. We need not carry any baggage and don't have to dwell on the mistakes of the past. It is great therapy for traders to go to 100% cash at times and I highly recommend that it be done periodically.
I don't expect the year ahead to be easy and I certainly am not making any wildly optimistic predictions about how much the indices may appreciate, but I am very confident that we will have some great trading opportunities and plenty of potential to make some good money. The key is to just stay at it and to keep plugging away day after day.
The key to market success isn't insight and analysis. Grind it out and adapt as conditions change. There will always be opportunities and we just have to keep looking for them, ready to seize them. That is why I'm extremely optimistic about 2012
We have a quiet start this morning and I don't expect anything major to occur today. We may see a little last minute positioning, but there are no major catalysts to drive us one way or the other. -
Risto Sverdlik
Erko jutule lisaks, et Hispaania ....
Maksutõusu näol kehtestatakse lisamaks "keskmisest kõrgema" hinnaga kodudele ...
Ega pole teada, millise meetodiga see keskmine arvutatakse ja mis on kõrgema kinnisvarahinna maksustamise eesmärk, lisaks eelarve täitmisele?
Reeglina lisamaksustatavad asjad kipuvad tulema alla ja vastama turunõudlusele. -
winger
Risto Sverdlik
Erko jutule lisaks, et Hispaania ....
Maksutõusu näol kehtestatakse lisamaks "keskmisest kõrgema" hinnaga kodudele ...
Ega pole teada, millise meetodiga see keskmine arvutatakse ja mis on kõrgema kinnisvarahinna maksustamise eesmärk, lisaks eelarve täitmisele?
Reeglina lisamaksustatavad asjad kipuvad tulema alla ja vastama turunõudlusele.
Meetodi ega muu eesmärgi kohta ei oska küll midagi öelda. Võttes aga arvesse, et sotsialistid on võimult läinud, kõlab eelarveministri Montoro tsitaat päris huvitavalt: Spain is seeking "effort from those who have most". -
Kui arenenud riikide keskpankade suurimaks mureks on majanduse elavdamine ja tööturu olukorra parandamine, siis arenevates riikides on toidu kõrge osakaal tarbijahindades muutnud keskpankade peamiseks ülesandeks majanduskasvu ja inflatsiooni balansseerimise. Ühes kõige keerulisemas olukorras on minu meelest India, kus inflatsioon püsib põikpäiselt 10% lähedal ning sestap on keskpanga käed seotud intressidega (8,5%) majanduse toetamisel, mille kasvutempo on viimaste kvartalitega selgelt alla tulnud. Bloombergist jäis silma üsna huvitav joonis, kus on näha, et kui toiduainete hinnatõus (24,3% tarbijakorvist) on aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes aeglustunud siis kütusekulud on vastupidiselt suurenenud ning sellega saanud THI tõusu suurim katalüsaator (26,18% tarbijakorvist) ja seetõttu ei pruugi keskpanga peavalu kuigi palju paremaks minna.
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Infoks, et aasta esimene kauplemispäev tuleb esmaspäeval väga unine - kinni on nii UK, Saksamaa, Venemaa, Jaapani, USA kui Kanada turud.
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Jah, Risto, tänud.
Need kriisid on õpetanud ühe tarkuse - kriisiaegadel makse maksvad peaksid aru saama, et kriiside ajal võetakse sealt, kust on mida võtta. -
USA dollar saab hetkel korralikult müüki: USDJPY kaupleb 0,81% madalamal viie nädala põhjades; AUDUSD ja NZDUSD +1% ja kauplevad kolme nädala tippudes. EURUSD +0,2% ja kaupleb $1,3 taseme all.
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Top 10 S&P 500 Gainers for 2011
COG (Cabot Oil & Gas) +103%
EP (El Paso) +92%
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical) +81%
MA (MasterCard) +69%
BIIB (Biogen Idec) +65%
HUM (Humana) +61%
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill) +60%
PRGO (Perrigo) +56%
OKE (ONEOK) +56%
ROST (Ross Stores) +54%
Top 10 S&P 500 Losers for 2011
FSLR (First Solar) -75%
ANR (Alpha Natural Resources) -67%
NFLX (NetFlex) -61%
BAC (Bank of America) -59%
X (United States Steel) -56%
SHLD (Sears Holdings) -55%
CSC (Computer Sciences) -52%
AIG (American International Group) -52%
GNW (Genworth Financial) -51%
HCBK (Hudson City Bancorp) -51% -
Head vana-aasta lõppu kõigile ning kohtumiseni uuel võimalusterohkel aastal !
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Üks parandus mu reedesele postile- Saksamaa turg on siiski täna avatud, seega kinni on UK, Venemaa, Jaapani, USA ja Kanada turud.
