Börsipäev 4. jaanuar
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Töötleva tööstuse aktiivsust kajastavad PMI indeksid on detsembris näidanud mitmel pool paranemise märke....seda nii BRIC riikides kui ka näiteks Suurbritannias ja USA-s. USA ISMi puhul on oluline, et tugevust näitasid just tööhõive ja tootmine ning võrreldes novembriga liikusid kõrgemale ka tellimused. Aga väga palju sõltub sektorist, sest kui eilse ISMi kohaselt tõdes üks kemikaalide tootja, et neljandas kvartalis on tellijad keskendunud väga palju varude vähendamisele, siis samal ajal aga nenditi masinatootmise poole pealt, et äritegevus on tugev ja selle aasta väljavaade väga hea.
Tänane makrokalender:
11.00 Eurotsooni detsembri teenindussektori PMI
12.00 Eurotsooni detsembri esmane inflatsiooninäit
17.00 USA novembri tehaste tellimuste muutus
??.?? Autotootjate USA müüginumbrid detsembris -
Eurotsooni detsembri lõplik PMI näit kujunes oodatust pisut paremaks olles 48,3 asemel 48,8 punkti ning paranedes 1,3 punkti võrreldes novembri 47,5ga.
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Eurotsooni detsembri tarbijahinnaindeksi kasv näitas detsembris leevenemise märke, taandudes novembri 3,0% pealt 2,8%le, mis jätab EKPle rohkem hingamisruumi lõdvema rahapoliitikaga jätkamiseks.
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Teatavasti rallis RIMM eile päevasiseselt Financialpost.com-s avaldatud artikli peale, kus kirjutati, et firma võib lõpuks läbi viia kaua oodatud muudatuse juhtkonnas ning palgata uue CEO.
Täna kommenteerib teemat ka Jefferies ja ütleb, et nende hinnagul valitakse uueks CEO-ks tõenäoliselt Barbara Stymiest, kes on Kanada üks hinnatuimaid tippjuhte.
Ms. Stymiest is considered one of the top executives in Canada. We would view such an announcement positively as we believe she will initiate a formalstrategic review, possibly trim costs in the hardware business, and possibly announce additional partnerships; however, we continue to see an outrightsale in the near-term as unlikely and see near-term results as challenged.Our checks indicate RIMM is likely to name Barbara Stymiest as Chairman: shehas a senior position at RBC (Group Head of Strategy, Treasury and Corporate Services). Sheis also often cited as a successor to RBC's current President and CEO, Gordon Nixon. Thatwould make her the first female bank CEO and probably the most powerful CEO in Canada.This means her accepting the RIM chairmanship is not without risk or pressure. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LCAV +8.1% (thinly traded), TISI +2.7%.
Other news: TIVO +14% and T +0.3% (announces settlement of patent litigation with AT&T; TiVo and AT&T enter into a patent licensing arrangement), UQM +5.6% (light volume, received an order for 100 additional PowerPhase HD Select 200 systems from Electric Vehicles International), ARNA +5.2% (submits response to FDA complete response letter for Lorcaserin), COG +3.2% (declared a two-for-one stock split of the Company's Common Stock; Sets New Marcellus Production Milestone), MBI +2.1% (following late spike on reports that the co won summary judgement decision against Countrywide), ELN +1.8% (still checking), LDK +0.9% (ticking higher, provides update on China Development Bank financing), BP +0.7% (BP stops payments to Gulf Oil Spill victims pending clarification by Judge, according to reports).
Analyst comments: LULU +3.4% (upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman), QGEN +3.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), DNKN +1.5% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman), AKS +1.1% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), CMG +1.1% (upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman), AEO +1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Mntgmy Scott). -
NetQin Mobile (NQ) and Motorola Mobility (GOOG) announced that they have signed an agreement to pre-install NetQin Mobile Security on Motorola Android smartphones in China. This agreement will ensure that consumers have instant access to the strongest mobile security application and services on the market.
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Credit Suisse alandab täna NetApp (NTAP) reitingu Osta pealt Hoia peale ja hinnasihi $ 50 pealt $ 42 peale.
Slower growth ahead, downgrade to Neutral. Despite solid secular positioning, our recent survey of 47 storage administrators suggests that competitive dynamics in the mid-range, where NetApp derives70% of revenue, may be changing – and not in NetApp’s favor. This will result in decelerating share gains, resulting in slower growth ahead. We forecast core revenue growth (ex-Engenio) of +7%/+11% in FY12/FY13 vs. 30% in FY11. Our new TP is $42
(from $50) and given limited upside, we lower our rating to Neutral.
Analüütikute poolt läbi viidud uuringute põhja selgub, et trend salvestite keskmises hinnavahemikus, kust tuleb NTAP-le 70% käibest on muutumas ja mitte ettevõttele soodsas suunas. Konkurents on tihenenud ja negatiivselt mõjub see nii aktsiahinnale kui tähendab ka aeglasemat kasvu.
Survey suggests competitive dynamics in the mid-range are changing. We expect NetApp’s focused R&D and higher exposure to the faster growth mid- range segment of storage to result in continued share gains. However, we expect the rate of share gains to moderate going forward, particularly given EMC’s mid-range push with both VNX and Isilon. Per our survey almost half of EMC’s VNX platform wins are coming from non-EMC environments, including 14% from NetApp. Further, while it is still early days for Isilon under EMC’s stewardship, 60% of survey respondents noted that the platform can currently be used in a traditional data center environment. Also, respondents expect Isilon to address an increasing portion of enterprise use cases within 2 years - 30% up
from 13% currently.
Nagu öeldud on konkurendid end tihedalt vahele pressimas ja seda eriti EMC poolt ning uuringu põhjal selgub, et palju kliente tuleb EMC-le ka väljaspoolt ehk NTAP-i arvelt.
Eelrturul kaupleb NTAP juba ligi 4% miinuspoolel ja siin on nüüd võimalus,et aktsia peale avanemist tõuseb. Võimalik oht 70% käivet tekitavale allikale võib investorid üsna murelikuks teha, aga teisalt on ilmselt see stsenaarium osaliselt ka hinda juba sisse arvestatud. Seega jälgiks aktsiat pigem avanemisel. -
Euro on kogu eilse tõusu käest andnud, kaubeldes hetkel 0,87% miinuspoolel $1,2937 juures.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: APKT -19.8% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush), NATI -6.1%, PRGS -5.8%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: STD -4.5%, DB -3.2%, BBVA -2.5%, BAC -1.6%, ING -1.6%, USB -1.2%, C -0.7% (Citigroup issues $2.5 bln in debt, most since 2009, according to reports).
A few APKT peers are lower following co's guidance: JNPR -4.1%, FFIV -3.4%, RVBD -3%.
Other news: TRID -49.2% (Trident Microsystems and Cayman subsidiary file for Chapter 11 Protection), LPHI -19.9% (responds to SEC lawsuit), BMTI -10.7% (received a comprehensive post-panel response letter from the FDA related to its PMA application for Augment Bone Graft for use as an alternative to autograft in hindfoot and ankle fusion procedures), AMRN -7.7% (subsidiary, Corsicanto, has commenced an offering of $150 million in aggregate principal amount of exchangeable senior notes due 2032), FRO -5.5% (still checking), VTR -3.2% (announces sale of 21,070,658 shares of common stock by selling stockholders), CHD -2.1% (ticking lower, to record Q4 non-cash tax charge for a deferred tax valuation allowance; exploring strategic options for Specialty Chemical business in Brazil, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital), YHOO -1.2% (Yahoo! to set to name a new CEO, according to reports).
Analyst comments: ALU -4.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Natixis ), NTAP -4.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), CEG -3.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at ISI Group ), SD -2.4% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital), ENR -1.4% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO ), POT -1.2% (removed from Top Picks Live list at Citigroup), LMT -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital), VMED -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at RBS), MOS -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup). -
Blogipidaja Notable Calls juhib täna tähelepanu Bernsteini callile, kus analüütikud vähendavad Salesforce.com (CRM)-i hinnasihi $ 108 pealt $ 89 peale, kinnitades oma Müü reitingut.
Bernstain on aktsia suhtes väga negatiivselt meelestatud ja ütlevad, et firma üritab ülevõtmistega oma probleeme varjata, aga kasv on selgelt aeglustumas.
NC usub, et aktsia satub seetõttu ka müügisurve alla:
$CRM - this is a scathing 23pg note from Scbern, will hurt the stock in the n-t. I see 97.50 range as soon as today.
CRM on üks väheseid nö hype aktsiaid, mis on sügisel turgudel aset leidnud müügilainete all suhteliselt vähe kannatada saanud arvestades seda, et näiteks GMCR,NFLX,OPEN jt on kaotanud üle poole oma väärtusest. -
to Nelli: Sa tead kauplemisest nii mõndagi, jälgin sinu ideid suure huviga. Aga kui see pole saladus siis ,milliseks kujunes sinu 2011.a. tootlus %. Edu ja jaksu uuteks ideedeks!
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Illumina trades to HoD; Hearing move attributed to renewed SI for ILMN takeover chatter
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EBay kauplemas 4% miinuses pärast Yahoo kinnitust, et uueks tegevjuhiks saab Scott Thompson, kes oli Ebay peamise kasvumootori PayPali president ning enne seda üks süsteemi väljaarendajatest. Ka Yahoo aktsionärid pole valiku pärast elevil, kuna kardetakse, kas mehel jätkub visiooni, et Yahoost edulugu teha ning kasuks ei tule ka meedia- ja reklaamikogemuse puudumine. Yahoo kauplemas ca 2% madalamal.
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daniel1: Aitäh tagasiside eest.
Ma pean ütlema,et ma möödunud aasta väga aktiivselt kauplemisega ei tegelenud ja alates sügisest jäin üsna kõrvale, sest kauplemiskeskkond oli 2011 ikka suhteliselt keeruline. Vaatamata üldlevinud arvamusele, et volatiilne turg on kauplejate jaoks hea turg ei vasta siiski päriselt tõele.
Seega võiks öelda, et on paremaid aegu olnud. :) -
Autotootjatel, eriti Fordil, oli päris hea kuu.
General Motors reports US Dec sales increased 5% y/y
Ford total US sales rise 10% YoY to 210,140 units -
November Factory Orders +1.8% vs +2.1% Briefing.com consensus
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Nagu hommikul ka eeldatud liikus NTAP peale avanemist oma eelturutasemetelt kõrgemale ning avanes $ 35,45 peal. Peale avanemist hüppas $ 36 taseme alla ja sealt alates on aktsia allapoole tulnud ning hetkel kaupleb $ 35,15 kandis, 4,4% miinuspoolel.
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InterMune Inc. (ITMN) on täna korraliku bid-i leidnud ja kaupleb ~7% kõrgemal, $13.35 tasemel. Homme avaldatakse Esbriet müüginumbrid.
ITMN jumping ahead of Q4 Esbriet sales report tomorrow. Current consensus is ~ $3 millon Q4 and $56M 2012, per JPMorgan. -
Diamond Foods: Herb Greenberg, on CNBC, says David Einhorn rumors are "absurd;" says there is still a lot of risk in the name
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Qualcomm: Weakness being attributed to story making the rounds voicing concern on some accounting issues
http://www.disclosureinsight.com/news/di-perspectives/qualcomm-poster-child-accounting-risk-hiding-plain-sight -
JBI (JBII): Shares fall to LoD as headlines regarding SEC accusations of fraud
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Zumiez raises Q4 EPS to $0.57-0.58 from $0.52-0.54 vs $0.54 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $180-181 mln vs $177.17 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; Dec comps +10.0% vs. the +5.3% Retail Metrics Consensus
