Börsipäev 10. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Ehkki päev USA turgudel on sel aastal alanud üldjuhul pigem negatiivsete emotsioonidega, siis sessiooni teist poolt on dikteerinud ostjad, mis iseenesest on positiivne märk, kuigi käive pole just suurem asi.
Euroopa aga lõpetas kerges miinuses, kui fookusesse on uuesti tõusnud Kreeka. Kuigi Olli Rehni sõnul on PSI kõnelused juba lõpusirgel ning erasektori haircut peaks jääma 50% juurde nii nagu sai oktoobris kokku lepitud, siis vaikselt räägitakse, et nendest sammudest ei piisa ning kärbe peaks olema veelgi suurem (nädalavahetusel Wolfgang Schaeuble’i nõunik ja möödunud nädalal IMF). Troika peaks Kreekasse jõudma jälle 16. jaanuaril, et allkirjastada uus 130 miljardi euro suurune abipakett, mis asendab olemasolevad kokkulepped, ent võttes arvesse riigi majanduse väga ebaselget tulevikku ja poliitilisi pingeid, siis läbirääkimised ilmselt kergeks ei kujunes.
Tänane makrokalender jääb suhteliselt õhukeseks, mistõttu võiks fookus langeda pigem erinevatele kõnelejatele...Olli Rehn, mitmed Fedi esindajad (Williams, Pianalto, George). -
Millal LHV Traderis mõjuvõimuga kaubelda saab? Mujal pidi see juba võimalik olema. Või on käive LHV jaoks liiga väike?
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tauts
Millal LHV Traderis mõjuvõimuga kaubelda saab? Mujal pidi see juba võimalik olema. Või on käive LHV jaoks liiga väike?
Kes selle 500 EUR-i pärast nüüd Traderisse täiendusi tegema hakkab... -
Prantsusmaa novembri tööstustoodang näitas aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes oodatud languse asemel kasvu, kerkides mulluse baasil 0,9% (konsensus -0,4%). Oktoobris oli kasv +1,7%.
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Kui eelmisel nädalal võis Christine Lagarde'i kommentaaride järgi oodata IMFi jaanuari raportis kasvuprognooside allapoole toomist, siis värskemate sõnavõttude kohaselt näib nagu ollakse väljavaadete osas hoopis positiivsemalt meelestatud. Via Reuters
"The euro-zone scene has changed massively over the last 18 months or so ... there are reasons to be a little bit more upbeat about the prospects," she told the daily in an interview published on Monday after a visit to South Africa last week.
"Our assessment is that even if some of the euro-zone countries are in a recession technically for some or all of 2012, the whole of the zone might not technically be in a recession," Lagarde said. -
Kas hakkab ka Euroopast tulema teateid, et hoolimata maailmalõpu ja euro kukkumise tärmini peatsest kättejõudmisest pole majandusel niiväga viga midagi. Üle lombi juba ammugi sedamoodi. Ehk on tondi vari koledam kui koll ise?
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Euroopa osas kipub karude nurk tõesti ülerahvastatud olema aga eks viimase aja jahenev makro ning ettevõtete kommentaarid on seda ka soodustanud. Muidugi kui konsensus on mingis suunas tugevalt kallutatud, siis üldiselt kipub reaalsus kujunema vastupidiseks ja kuna positiivsemad ollakse aasta teise pooles, siis järgnevad kuud saavad olema võrdlemisi kriitilised näitamaks, kas ja kui palju optimistide poolele ümber kolivad
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Fitch andis teada, et Saksamaa AAA reiting on väljaspool ohtu; Prantsusmaa reitingu langetamist pole alanud aastal oodata. EURUSD on uudisest saanud tuge, kaubeldes 0,2% kõrgemal $1,2790 juures.
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tauts
Ma paneks sulle plussi,aga ei ole võimalust. -
Tiffany & Co lowers FY12 EPS to $3.60-3.65 from $3.70-3.80 vs $3.78 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Michael J. Kowalski, chairman and chief executive officer, said “After achieving very strong and better-than-expected sales and earnings growth in the first three quarters of 2011, sales weakened markedly in the United States and Europe during the holiday season, reflecting restrained spending by consumers for fine jewelry.
Tiffany vist üks esimesi lukskaupade tootjaid, kes ootusi langetab. Aktsia kaupleb eelturul -4,4% madalamal. -
No läks eelmise hinnatõusu pressiteatest copy & paste tehes natuke nihu, ei ole vaja nüüd tähti närida :-)
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Euro on kõige tugevam valuuta! Vaadake, mis ta USD suhtes teinud on! (Pikas perspektiivis!)
Undress Unzip
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meanwhile joogariided lähevad jätkuvalt hästi kaubaks...
Lululemon athletica raises Q4 EPS to $0.47-0.49 from $0.40-0.42 vs $0.43 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs to $358-363 mln from $327-332 vs $337.98 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
Kui konsensus on arvamusel, et kogu eurotsooni majanduskasv jääb mullusega võrreldes nullilähedaseks, siis meeleolu on oluliselt süngem perifeeriariikides, kus sisuliselt iga kuu toob kaasa järjest negatiivsemaid väljavaateid. Portugali keskpank näiteks prognoosib riigi selle aasta majanduslanguseks -3,1% vs -2,2% mõned kuud tagasi.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:WBMD -23% (announces termination of discussions regarding potential corporate transaction; CEO Gattinella has resigned; preliminary outlook for 2012 is that revenue may be as much as 2% to 8% lower than 2011 revenue), LIZ -11.9%, TIF -7.5%, WDFC -6.8%, SIG -6.4%, SMSC -5.3%, PHG -4.5%, OCZ -2.3%, HMA -1.1%, JNPR -0.8%.
Other news: TRNO -5.3% (announces public follow-on offering of 4,000,000 shares of common stock), CMLP -4.4% (announces commencement of public offering of common units), COH -3% (trading lower with TIF), ARR -2.4% (announced that it is commencing an underwritten public offering of 9 mln shares of common stock), SAP -2% (still checking), GSK -1% (attempting to sell its remaining OTC medicine brands, according to reports).
Analyst comments: NFLX -2.2% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill ). -
Viimase kahe nädala jooksul on Netflix (NFLX) aktsia uuesti hoo sisse saanud ning tõusnud üle 40%, kaubeldes eelturul $ 100 taseme juures.
Täna on omapoolsete kommentaaridega väljas nii Merrill Lynchi kui ka Piper Jaffray analüütikud.
Merill Lynch langetab täna NFLX-i reitingu Hoia pealt Müü peale koos $ 85 hinnasihiga.
We are downgrading Netflix to Underperform from Neutral after the stock’s 42% year-to-date increase, a move we consider unwarranted. We see five main overhangs to the stock heading into 2012: 1) second wave of negative press leading into 2012, 2) customer loyalty dwindling, 3) international expansion could prove to be a drag on profitability post 2012, 4) rising content costs making it expensive to refresh streaming library, and 5) 35mn, up from 24mn at the end of 2012, domestic subscribers needed to reach our 2013 estimates. Our $85 price objective (PO) is based on 27x our 2013 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $3.14.
Analüütikud suhtuvad NFLX lähitulevikku üsna skpetiliselt ja pelgavad, et murenenud tarbijalojaalsus, laienemisega seotud kulud, kallinevad filmide sisseostmistasud rõhuvad aktsiat ka uuel 2012. aastal.
Piper Jaffray on NFLX kõrval võtnud vaatluse alla ka Coinstar (CSTR)-i ning alljärgnevalt ka analüütikute visioon:
All 3 months of Q4 web traffic data from ComScore suggest that Redbox continues to benefit from changes at Netflix. Redbox.com traffic decelerated to more normalized levels in the month of December, but overall in Q4 traffic to the site was +37% y/ y in Q4 (all 3 months), up from +34% in Q3. Redbox.com continues to grow faster than it was prior to the Netflix price increase announcement in July. December web traffic data also suggests that Netflix sub adds are tracking in-line or slightly ahead of our estimates, though the recent rise in churn makes web traffic a more complicated leading indicator for Netflix gross adds. OW ratings on NFLX and CSTR
Analüütikud on võtnud oma hinnagu aluseks ComScore andmed, mille põhjal võib järeldada, et CSTR-i Redbox lõikab jätkuvalt kasu tänu NFLX-s aset leidnud muutustele. Samas näitavad detsembri andmed, et NFLX-i uute kasutajate lisandumine kulgeb oodatud tempos. Teisalt ütlevad analüütikud, et kuigi nad on eelnevalt kasutanud ComScore andmeid veebiliikluse kohta hindamaks kodumaiste kasutajate lisandumise kasvu, aga dünaamika on viimasel ajal muutunud, siis on keeruline hinnata, kas veenilikkulus on aktiivsem sellepärast, et lisandub uusi kasutajaid või vanad kasutajad hoopsi sulgevad oma kontosid.
Netflix: Solid Traffic, But Difficult To Decipher Due To Recent Sub Activity.
We have previously used web traffic data from ComScore to track domestic gross adds. However, due to the recent changes in subscriber dynamics, increasing traffic could be the result of new subscribers opening an account or existing subscribers canceling an account. We are modeling for Netflix domestic gross sub adds of 5.9m in Q4 (stable y/y gross add growth vs. Q3 at 15%), and Netflix.com web traffic growth for Q4 is accelerating slightly vs. Q3. We are modeling for growth in Netflix domestic gross sub adds to be essentially flat q/q at +15.0% y/y in Q4, compared to +14.9% y/y in Q3. Average unique visitors to Netflix.com were up 45% y/y in Q4, up slightly from +39% y/y in Q3. In other words, ComScore data in Q4 suggests gross adds are tracking in line or slightly ahead of our model. We note that the correlation between ComScore Netflix.com web traffic data and Netflix reported gross sub adds has been 0.96 over the last 22 quarters.
Kuigi Merrilli call ei sisalda endas mitte midagi uut, siis võidakse seda täna siiski kasutada põhjusena kasum lukku panna. NFLX-i suguse aktsia lühikeseks müümisel tasub olla muidugi eriti ettevaatlik, arvestades aktsia volatiilset iseloomu. Pikemas perspektiivis aga üldse ei välistaks, et NFLX saab oma momentumi tagasi.
Eelturul kaupleb aktsia hetkel 2,7% plusspoolel. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ELX +14.9% (also upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at Pacific Crest), CRUS +9.6%, LULU +8.5%, AUO +4.5%, AA +2.8%.
M&A related: CRL +2.1% (early strength attributed to renewed M&A speculation).
Financial related names showing strength: DB +5.5%, LYG +4.3%, RBS +3.2%, UBS +3.2%, BAC +2.9%, CS +2.8%, MS +2.5%, GS +1.9%.
Metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +4.3%, AG +3.9%, SLV +3.1%, BBL +2.9%, EXK +2.8% (sets new production records in 4th quarter, 2011; silver production up 25% to 1,120,780 oz, gold output up 45% to 7,045 oz), BHP +2.6%, RIO +2.4%, GOLD +2.4%, VALE +1.8%, GLD +1.5%.
Other news: JKS +19.9% (ticking higher, announced it expanded into France's Sun Belt), FMCN +12.2% (announced that co is implementing a policy starting from 2012 to issue a recurring dividend with payments expected to equal approximately 25% of its annual non-GAAP net income of the preceding fiscal year), ARNA +9.0% (FDA accepts resubmission of Lorcaserin New Drug Application; PDUFA date set for June 27, 2012), REGN +7.1% (disclosed investor update in 8-k slides, upgraded to Outperform at Robert W. Baird), LXRX +5.2% (reports LX4211 enhances effects of DPP-4 inhibition in patients with Type 2 Diabetes), KEG +4.4% (mentioned positively on MadMoney), VRTS +2.9% (will replace Carter's in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), LNKD +1.3% (Tiger Global Management discloses 9.1% stake in amended 13G filing), SD +1.2% (mentioned positively on MadMoney), .
Analyst comments: EOG +3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), TSCO +2% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman). -
An Optimistic Start
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Jan 10, 2012 | 7:51 AM
"It is common error to infer that things which are consecutive in order of time have necessarily the relation of cause and effect." -- Jacob Bigelow
Overseas markets were strong overnight and that is helping to produce an upbeat open in U.S. indices this morning.
"European stocks rose and the euro stayed under pressure on Tuesday as investors weighed the debt turmoil in the euro zone against an improved U.S. economic picture that looks set to deliver upbeat corporate results," Reuters reported.
In other words, they really don't have any idea why the market is up. They even go so far as to try to attribute the strength as being due to the earnings report from Alcoa (AA). AA has never been a market-moving stock and the only reason it receives much attention at all is because it is the first to report.
What is significant this morning are reports that China plans to further open its capital markets to foreign investors. China has been actively trying to boost its stock market recently and that has been the biggest macro boost we are seeing.
Whatever the confluence of events, it might be that it is producing strength in European banks as well as gold and some commodity-related names. But there were a number of earnings warnings again, with Tiffany (TIF) being one of the more interesting to contemplate.
Technically, the market has been in an extremely tight range since gapping up on the first day of 2012. We have five days of consolidation and it is providing a nice base of support for buying this morning. What has been most notable about the action lately has been the persistent dip buying. We have bounce back from early weakness four days in a row and have had good underlying support each day. Given the markets inclination toward perversity, it is awfully tough to trust a change of character that produces a gap up open.
What will make things interesting today is that we have no significant news scheduled. There are no earnings reports and just some minor economic news due later. At the moment, the market is in an optimistic mood because there isn't anything particularly negative going on and no real news from Europe.
Overall, we are back in a fairly common position that we have seen quite often over the last couple years. The indices are trending up on light volume and look technically healthy, but individual stocks don't have a lot of energy and finding chart set-ups is not easy. We did have some good action in biotechnology recently and small oils have attracted some hot money, so it is a positive development to see some pockets of momentum for a change.
As I've written a number of times lately, one of the easiest mistakes to make in this market is to be prematurely bearish. It is very easy to develop negative scenarios that often pushes us to exit early even when the price action isn't that bad.
We'll see how well this gap up opens, but given that we have opened weak and closed strong four days in a row, you have to wonder if maybe we are due for the reverse to occur.
At the time of publication, the author had no positions in any of the securities mentioned. -
WebMD Health announces termination of discussions regarding potential corporate transaction; CEO Gattinella has resigned; preliminary outlook for 2012 is that revenue may be as much as 2% to 8% lower than 2011 revenue
Wayne T. Gattinella has resigned from his position as Chief Executive Officer and President of the Company and as a member of its Board of Directors. Anthony Vuolo, currently serving as Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer, will serve as Interim CEO while the Board conducts a search to fill the position on a permanent basis. WebMD expects that its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2011 will be consistent with the financial guidance it provided in its press release issued November 2, 2011 ( Co guided Q4 revs of $147-157 mln at the time). Preliminarily, WebMD expects revenue and earnings to be between the low-end and midpoint of its financial guidance range. WebMD's preliminary outlook for 2012 is that revenue may be as much as 2% to 8% lower than 2011 revenue (consensus calls for revs to rise ~1%), with revenues declining more in the first half of the year and improving in the second half of the year. WebMD's fourth quarter sales activity for advertising and sponsorship products was less than anticipated and reflects a challenging business environment for certain pharmaceutical company customers and a more competitive landscape in the consumer products markets. WebMD also announced today that, in late 2011, the independent directors of its Board of Directors commenced a process to consider strategic alternatives to enhance stockholder value. In connection with such process, the Board of Directors formed a Special Committee of independent directors, which was advised by independent financial and legal advisors. The Special Committee, with its advisers, had discussions with several potential acquirers of the Company. The Company allowed such potential acquirers to conduct a due diligence investigation of the Company's business. The Special Committee has terminated these discussions with potential acquirers and its process to review a potential sale of the Company. -
WBMD võib osutuda üsna huvitavaks, kuna nii Soros (6,14%), kui ka Ichan (7.99%) on viimasel ajal aktsionäride klubiga liitunud.
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Rackspace probing HoD as DELL for RAX rumor makes the rounds
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WBMD on juba väga hea hinnaga, aga ma ei kiirustaks ostma, sest ka järgmistel päevadel võib suund allapoole olla. Pikema sihikuga investor võiks aga 26 dollarist altpoolt vaikselt soetama hakata. Seal on nõks, et neil on 1,1 bn cashi ja selle ekvivalente. Umbes 20 USD per stokk, nii kirvega arvutatult. Mis koos müümist pooldanud CEO lahkumisega võib tähendada, et boardil võib mõttes mõlkuda hoopis ise midagi osta, mitte oma co-d müüa.
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Kreeka 2-aastase võlakirja tulusus on vahepeal roninud 840 baaspunkti kõrgemale ja teinud uue rekordi 184,56% peal.
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Best Buy spikes on heavy volume following rumors that Greenlight Capital (Einhorn) may be taking a stake
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Eelturg pakkus täna NFLX-i aktsia lühikeskemüüjatele häid hinnatasemeid, sest aktsia kauples seal üle $ 100 ehk 2-3% plusspoolel. Avanemisel saabusid aktsiasse ka müüjad ning peale avanemist kukkus aktsia uuesti miinuspoolele ehk $ 95,50 kanti. Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $ 95,80 juures, 2,2% miinuspoolel.
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Rehvitootja Goodyear Tire&Rubber (GT)-l on käsil esitlus Deutsche Banki Global Auto konverentsil, kus firma on teada andnud, et käive on vähenemas kõigis regioonides.
Aktsia kaupleb selle peale 7% miinuspoolel, $ 14,20 kandis.
Goodyear Tire at Deutsche Bank Global Auto Conference: Says on target to meet 2013 goals but that recent rends have been more challenging; says seen volume softness across all categories -
Kella poole seitsmestes AK uudistes jooksis majandusuudiste ajal inforibal, et Nikkei kukkus täna -0,38%, reaalsuses aga tõusis samapalju. Mis mõte on sellisel infol? Parem on olla teadmatuses kui valesti informeeritud. Mitte et ma AK-i uuidste järgi midagi otsustaks, aga kena selline jama pole ju.
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Need Rev Sharki kommentaarid on alati kuidagi väga USA kesksed, vähemalt mulje jääb selline. Euroopa saab alati tappa ja iga pisikene liigutus ülessuunas on USA tekitatud ja üldsegi võiks Euroopa minna kusagile mujale planeedile. Huvitav, kas Rev Sharki lugejaskond valdavalt on samal arvamusel majanduse suhtes..
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USGS reports 7.3 magnitude quake off the west coast of northern Sumatra
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Cobalt International Energy spikes to highs on heavy volume; hearing tier-1 firm upping tgt to $38
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Netflix and Warner Brothers (TWX) announced a new agreement that will extend the current 28-day sales-only window to 56 days for Theatrical New Release and made-for-video titles on DVD and Blu-ray Disc
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Päris normaalne artikkel, tegelikult ei midagi uut, kuid korrata ju võib.
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2012/01/16/120116ta_talk_surowiecki -
Headline crossing that Greek officials belive they will need more money than agreed to in October according to sources
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NYSE Euronext: CNBC, citing DJ, reporting that EU antitrust panel rejects NYSE-DB merger
