Börsipäev 13. jaanuar
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Oodatust kõrgem töötuabiraha taotluse number ja kesisem detsembri jaemüük andsid põhjust USA sessiooni alguses järjekordselt põhjust müümiseks, kuid sarnaselt käitumismallile eelnevatel päevadel, tiksuti õhtuks tagasi üles. Eilse päeva peamiseks uudiseks oli siiski kahe eurotsooni riigi edukad võlakirjaoksjonid, mille põhjal võiks eeldada, et EKP pakutav likviidsus on jõudmas laenamisega raskustes olevate valitsusteni.
Makrokalender jääb täna võrdlemisi õhukeseks. Pärast eilset edukat Hispaania võlakirjaoksjonit ja Itaalia enda lühiajalise võla müüki kavatseb viimane täna turule paisata 2014 ja 2018 aegumisega võlakirju. Kell 16.55 raporteeritakse USA jaanuarikuu Michigani tarbijasentimendi indeks. Kindlasti on enne USA turu avanemist tähelepanu keskpunktis JPMorgan, kes presenteerib finantssektoris esimesena oma möödunud kvartali majandustulemused.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad 0,2% plusspoolel, Euroopa aga avanemas ca 0,5% kõrgema. -
Itaalia müüs tänasel 2014. aasta tähtajaga võlakirja oksjonil kokku 4,75 miljardi euro eest võlga. Tulusus langes eelmise oksjoni 5,62% pealt 4,83% peale.
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Kui lähema aegumisega võlakirjade puhul on yieldid alla tulnud, siis kaugema (2018) puhul on edasi üles roninud
Italy Sells EUR3.0 bln in 6.0% Nov 2014 BTP; Avg yield 4.83% vs 5.62% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.20x v 1.36x prior
Italy Sells EUR750 mln in 4.25% July 2014 BTP; Avg yield 4.25% vs 4.93% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.28x v 1.35x prior
Italy Sells EUR1.0 bln in 4.5% Aug 2018 BTP; Avg yield 5.75% vs 5.62% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.61x v 1.98x prior -
Headline numbrid üsna in-line
JPMorgan Chase prelim $0.90 vs $0.92 GAAP Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $21.47 bln vs $22.68 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
JPM-s Jamie Dimon Says Returns For 4Q ’Modestly Disappointing’
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Gapping up
M&A related: INHX +1.8% (light volume, Bristol-Myers Squibb begins tender offer to acquire Inhibitex).
Select European financial related names showing strength: RBS +3.8%, DB +1.8%, BCS +1.6%, BBVA +1.2%.
Other news: RIMM +2.5% (early strength attributed to continued speculation that the co is exploring options), GLNG +1.9% (announced earlier contract; charter is expected to commence in March 2012), SWK +1.2% (positive comments on MadMoney), IGT +1.1% (confirms the co will acquire cocial gaming co Double Down Interactive; acquisition estimated to be accretive to IGT's FY12 adj. earnings), DD +0.5% (positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: CIEN +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Northland Securities), PLCE +2.2% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill ), CMG +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair), CTRP +1.2% (upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna), TOT +0.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan). -
Nafta ja maagaasihinna suhe teeb uusi rekordeid. Põhjuseks see, et nafta pakkumise ja nõudluse bilanss on läinud aasta aastalt üha pingelisemaks (pakkumise poole pealt probleemid Liibüa, Iraagi, Iraaniga ja nõudlus samal ajal kiiresti kasvamas) ning samal ajal on kildagaasi puurimisega maagaasi pakkumine hüppeliselt kasvanud. Tuletan meelde, et maagaasi ja nafta hinnavahe, kui võtta arvesse ainult selles peituvat energiavahet, võiks olla tegelikult 6 korda. Kui juba aasta-paar tagasi tundus 20 juurde jõudnud kordaja röögatu, siis nüüd oleme jõudnud 37 korra juurde. Ühesõnaga praegu on maagaasi edukaks laialdasemaks kasutuselevõtuks viimase paarikümne aasta parimad võimalused. Ehk nii suur hinnavahe hakkab tasapisi erinevaid tööstusharusid juba mõtlema panema, kuidas odavat maagaasi paremini ära kasutada vs üha kallinev nafta?
Viimase 20 aasta WTI nafta ja maagaasi hinna suhtarv (alumine graafik): -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: JDAS -12.2% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities), JPM -2.9%.
Select financial related names are lower following JPM results: IRE -4.3%, MS -2.4%, GS -2.4%, BAC -2.2%( may pull out of some parts of the country if its financial problems get worse, according to reports), ING -1.6% (ING Group may sell more assets for aid repayment, according to reports), C -1.5%.
A few European drug names are trading lower following NVS news: NVS -1.8% (to restructure US business to strengthen competitive position in light of loss of Diovan patent and announces charge for Rasilez/Tekturna; results in reduction of 1,960 positions), AZN -1.1%, MRK -0.4%.
Other news: MBLX -37.6% (announces termination of Telles Joint Venture, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), EK -27.1% (Eastman Kodak is talking with Citigroup (C) for bankruptcy financing, according to reports), CRDC -16.7% (announced the suspension of enrollment in its European clinical trial of the MicroCutter XPRESS 30 due to a small subset of deployments where the XPRESS 30 did not perform satisfactorily in thicker tissue), DMND -11% (pullback attributed to report suggesting prosecutors opening an inquiry into walnut pmts), SFLY -5.9% (announces departure of CFO Mark Rubash, downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), CPNO -4.2% (announces public offering of 4.5 mln common shares), TS -1.5% and SAP -1% (still checking).
Analyst comments: VMW -2.9% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup), MDR -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), BECN -0.4% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust). -
USA kaubandusbilanss oli novembris arvatust suuremas defitsiidis
November Trade Balance -$47.8 bln vs -$44.0 bln consensus; October revised to -$43.3 bln from -$43.5 bln -
Citi langetab täna VMWare (VMW) reitingu Hoia pealt Müü peale ja hinnasihi $ 87 pealt $ 80 peale.
Downgrading from Hold to Sell, lowering price target to $80 — Our revenue estimates are below consensus for FY12 and FY13 and we expect the company to guide initial 2012 revenue mid-point below street 20%.
Incremental concern about slowdown in core server business — Server refresh activity has been strong for two years and is showing signs of slowing. At the same time, server virtualization penetration is now over 50%, making it difficult for an up-tick
in penetration to pick up the slack. Lower server growth was the main catalyst to our lower price target.
Analüütikute hinnangul on ettevõttel keeruline ootustele vastavaid tulemusi käesoleval aastal näidata ning usuvad, et firma prognoosib oma käibeks tunduvalt alla konsensuse jääva numbri. Serverite segment on olnud viimased aastad väga tugev ning nüüd näitab aeglustumise märke mis on ka peamine ajend hinnasihi langetamisel.
Lack of new product drivers near-term to make up the difference — Our inputs continue to suggest that outside of some ELA bundling, sales of management and desktop products are lagging. While promising long-term, the vFabric app stack isn’t a near-term driver and we believe management products are still not mature.
Olukorda ei leevenda ka uued tooteid, sest lähitulevikus analüütikute sõnul uusi lahendusi turule tulemas pole.
Not well positioned for tougher macro environment — Perpetual license model, ties to hardware re fresh and relatively high Europe exposure put VMW among the most exposed if IT spending conditions worsen. Virtualization remains a priority on our CIO
surveys but this was the case through the 2008 downturn as well. During the 08-09 downturn, VMW’s revenue decelerated among the most in our coverage .
Suhteliselt kõrge esindatus Euroopas muudab VMW jaoks ka Euroopa võlakriisist tulenevate raskuste üle elamise keerulisemaks, näiteks 2008-2009 kriisi ajal kannatas VMW käive Citi poolt lkaetavate ettevõtete hulgas kõige enam.
VMW kaupleb üsna kõrgel valuatsioonil (34x oma 2012. aasta oodatavat kasumit) ja kui makromajanduse tõttu sündivad pinged tekitavad investoritele juba piisavalt muret, siis ettevõttepõhised probleemid veel sinna juurde tekitavad tõenäoliselt soovi VMW aktsiatest vabaneda.
Aktsia kaupleb eelturul 3,5% miinuspoolel, $ 84,75 juures. -
Getting a Bit More Cautious
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Jan 13, 2012 | 7:49 AM
Let our advance worrying become advance thinking and planning.
-- Winston Churchill
So far 2012 has been very positive for the bulls. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have had only one slightly negative day as we have gone straight up. Volume hasn't been particularly strong and most of the gain has occurred on gap-up opens, but it is hard to argue with the price action.
I've been most impressed with the very strong dip-buying. We have not had a close anywhere near the lows of the day and every single pullback has been bought. The buyers are pouncing on any minor weakness, and that behavior generally becomes self-reinforcing the longer it continues.
When the market is acting in this manner, don't fight it. The easiest mistake to make in this market since the bottom in March 2009 is to believe that a low-volume, straight-up rally is about to suddenly come to an end. More often than not we have continued to rally far longer than many would think is reasonable and we almost never suddenly collapse.
One thing that tends to add to the inclination to look for a market top is that this sort of action results in fewer attractive technical setups in individual stocks. Many stocks are now overbought on light volume, and the breakouts have come and gone. Putting new cash to work is a challenge and that often leads to a bearish bias due to hope more than anything else.
Making a bearish case against this market isn't too difficult -- another thing that tends to keep it trending upward. The major thing that bothers me is the feeling of complacency, which in part is probably due to seasonality. Bearishness is quite low in the sentiment polls, but those aren't particularly good timing devices. In the shorter term the market has been ignoring quite a bit of bad news, such as continued weakness in the euro, poor action in retailers, yesterday's increased unemployment filings and the lack of any real resolution to the issues plaguing Europe.
The biggest negatives right now are the high expectations and sanguine mood as we enter earnings season. We have had more warnings and guide-downs this quarter than in many years (JDA Software (JDAS) last night was the latest), yet here we are with the indices hovering near their highs. It would be a good "sell the news" setup even if we were expecting some good earnings news.
Probably the biggest positive lately has been that the action in stocks is not as highly correlated and there is an increased focus on individual stock-picking. We have had some pockets of strong momentum and there have been some themes in things like biotechnology, solar energy, oil and China that have worked well. We haven't seen that sort of thing since the first half of 2011, and it does give the market a much better feel because we aren't being held hostage to the headlines.
The key now is that we be on guard for a change in market character as earnings roll out. JPMorgan (JPM), which is the first major report of the quarter, is out and is trading down on a miss in revenue and EPS. The stock had run up sharply along with the broad market, so it shouldn't be a big surprise that a less-than-perfect report is causing some selling. That is the danger in the overall market next week.
With the market closed on Monday I expected to see some positioning for reports that start to hit next week. Some of the major reports due include Goldman Sachs (GS), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM) and Bank of America (BAC). JPMorgan this morning should provide some clues as to how the market is likely to handle some of these reports.
One more thing to keep in mind is that the beginning-of-the-year seasonality starts to wane from here. According to sentimentrader.com, the Nasdaq 100 tends to top out on the eighth trading day of the new year. Today is Day 9, so we are quickly losing that tailwind.
I'm not a big growling grizzly, but the year has started well and I'm not inclined to give back gains. I'm concerned about the setup we have going into earnings and I'm going to proceed with utmost caution as the news starts to roll out. -
USA indeksite futuurid on kauplemas 0,7% miinuspoolel ning EUR/USD ära andnud osa viimaste päevade tõusust (hetkel -0,8% @ 1,2715 USD), kui turul liiguvad kuulujutud, et S&P võib juba täna mitmete eurotsooni riikide reitinguid alandada.
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Itaalia 10a võlakirja yield negatiivse turusentimendi peale tagasi üles trügimas
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Michigani sentimendiindeks pakkumas veidi lohutust
January UofM Sentiment 74.0 vs. 71.2 Briefing.com consensus; prior 69.9 -
väidetavalt ei kavatse S&P Saksamaa reitingut langetama hakata, kuid Prantsusmaa on nimekirjas
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Huvitav, kas reitingu langetamisel ka mingit kestvamat mõju on? Langetamise võimalus ju ammu teada ja näiteks USA puhul polnud mingit kestvat mõju - peale esimest ehmatust jätkus võlakirjade ralli tõusvas joones. Ja Fitch teatas minu teada, et nemad sel aastal ei alanda.
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Meeldetuletuseks kõigile USA aktsiaturul tegutsejatele- esmaspäeval, 16. jaanuaril on USA aktsiaturud suletud, kuna seal tähistatakse Martin Luther King,Jr.-i päeva.
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VMW aktsia on küll täna seni miinuspoolel tegutsenud, aga head kauplemisvõimalust paraku ei pakkunud. Aktsia avanes $ 84,89 pealt ja tuli peale avanemist alla $ 84 taseme juurde, aga sinna $ 84-85 vahemikku on liikuma jäänudki.
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Business Insideri vahendusel üks pildike sellest, kuidas S&P downgrade`i hirmus kauplevad miinuspoolel kõik toormeliigid, aga ühe erandiga. Nimelt näitab apelsinimahl keskmisest suuremat tugevust.
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BankUnited spikes on Bloomberg headline suggesting co is working with Goldman on possible sale
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(FR) France Fin Min Baroin: Confirms France will lose its AAA rating at S&P; France sovereign rating to be cut one notch, to AA+ from AAA - French television
- France downgrade is not a catastrophe, France would have preferred to retain its AAA rating
- Ratings agencies will not dictate French policies. There are no plans to announce any additional austerity measures, but govt will continue to pursue its reform efforts. -
Tesla Motors drops to lows on heavy volume; pullback attributed to headlines regarding executive departure
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Eesti rating on Saksamaa, Hollandi ja Soomega jäetud pikaajaliselt muutmata...
The credit rating agency affirmed the current long-term ratings for Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. -
Eestil on pikaajaline vaade negatiivne, st ega see kärbe tulematta jää.
Prantsusmaal samuti väljavaade negatiivne, ilmselt tuleb sealgi juukselõikusele lisa.
Uhuu, korraik must reede :)
