Börsipäev 17. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Euroopa börsid suutsid eile üsna edukalt maha raputada S&P uudise, kui DAX sulgus 1,25% ja CAC 0,9% kõrgemal. Ka krediiditurud ei näidanud erilist protesti ning Prantsusmaa suutis üheaastaseid võlakirju müüa yieldiga 0,406%, mis oli 9. jaanuari oksjonil saavutatud 0,454%st parem.
Ootuspäraselt on S&P kärpinud ka EFSFi reitingut AAA pealt AA+ peale, ent USA futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,7% kuni 0,9% kõrgemal ning EUR/USD +0,5% @ 1,2727 USD, kui positiivset sentimenti toidab Hiina neljanda kvartali SKT muutus, mis kujunes oodatud 8,6% asemel 0,2-0,3 protsendipunkti võrra paremaks. Ühtlasi näitasid kiirenevat kasvu detsembris nii tööstustoodang kui ka jaemüük, kuid sellele võis positiivselt mõjuda Hiina uue aasta efekt, mille raames tootmine ja tarbimine enne pikemaid pühasid suureneb.
Tänasest makrost võiks välja tuua Suurbritannia detsembri tarbijahinnaindeksi muutuse (kell 11.30), eurotsooni detsembri inflatsiooni näidu (kell 12.00), Saksamaa jaanuar ZEW sentimendiindeksid (kl 12.00) ja USA Empire state töötleva tööstuse küsitluse (kell 15.30).
Oma möödunud kvartali majandustulemused raporteerivad enne USA turgude avanemist Citigroup ja Wells Fargo. -
Eilseid uudiseid:
Ekspress Grupi müügitulu detsembris kasvas aasta baasil +10%, küündides 5,5m euroni. IV kvartali müügitulu oli 16,3m eurot, ületades ootusi 0,2m euroga
Olympicu Baltikumi hasartmängutulud IV kvartalis olid Eestis 8,1m eurot (LHV: 7,6m eurot), Lätis 8,0m eurot (LHV: 7,7m eurot) ja Leedus 4,9m eurot (LHV: 4,8m eurot). Vastavad kasvuprotsendid: +20,9% Eestis, +19,4% Lätis ja +19,5% Leedus.
Olainfarmi müügitulud detsembris ületasid samuti ootusi, kasvades aasta baasil +27% 2,66m latini ning. IV kvartali müügituluks tuli 9,6m latti (LHV: 8,8m latti), mis tähendab aasta baasil +54%.
Seega Balti ettevõtted jätkavad väga tugevat tulemuste raporteerimist ning pikaajalise turunõrkuse järel võiks tugevad tulemused ka aktsiahindadel tuge pakkuda. -
Saksamaa ZEW indeksid tulid mõlemad üle ootuste. Hetke olukorda hindav indeks kerkis detsembri 26,8 punkti pealt jaanuaris 28,4 punktile (prognoositi 24,0) ning ettevaatav indeks -53,8 pealt -21,6 peale (prognoositi -49,6). Euro on jätkamas dollari suhtes rallit ning kaupleb üle 1% kõrgemal @ 1,2796 USD lähedal.
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Eurotsooni detsembri inflatsioon alanes ühe kuuga 3,0% pealt 2,7%le (yoy), kui konsensus ootas veidi kõrgemat numbrit (+2,8%). See peaks keskpanga jaoks olema meeldivaks uudiseks, kuna lubab jätkata lõdvema rahapoliitika rakendamist, ilma et peaks muretsema inflatsioon liiga kõrgele üle 2% piiri tõusmise pärast.
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Hispaania müüs 4,88 miljardi euro eest 12 ja 18 kuu võlakirjasid ning nagu viimasel ajal kombeks, läheb võlg, mille tähtaeg jääb alla EKP 3a LTRO nagu soe sai. 1a tulususeks kujunes 2,049% vs 4,05% eelmisel korral detsembris ning 18 kuu yieldiks 2,399% vs 4,226% varasemal korral. 1a bid to cover 3,54 vs 3,14 detsembris ning 18 kuu võla puhul 3,23x vs 4,97 eelmisel korral.
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Kui möödunud nädalal oli juttu luksuskaupade müüjatest, kel käsil üsna kehvad ajad, siis Burberry ei tohiks küll kurta.
WSJ kirjutab, et riideid ja käekotte müüv Burberry teatas, et möödunud aasta viimased kolm kuud kasvatasid firma müügikäibe $ 879,7-ni ehk yoy võrdluses tõusis käibenumber 21%. Nõudlus tuli peamiselt rahvusvahelistelt turgudelt, mis kattis ära Suurbritannia turu nõrkuse. -
Erko Rebane
Hispaania müüs 4,88 miljardi euro eest 12 ja 18 kuu võlakirjasid ning nagu viimasel ajal kombeks, läheb võlg, mille tähtaeg jääb alla EKP 3a LTRO nagu soe sai. 1a tulususeks kujunes 2,049% vs 4,05% eelmisel korral detsembris ning 18 kuu yieldiks 2,399% vs 4,226% varasemal korral. 1a bid to cover 3,54 vs 3,14 detsembris ning 18 kuu võla puhul 3,23x vs 4,97 eelmisel korral.
See näitab, et tegelikkuses ei karda ei Itaalia ega Hispaania defaulti kuni 3-aastases perspektiivis mitte keegi. Suur osa sellest paanikast on vaht kõrgema tootluse õigustamiseks. -
Tesla Motors (TSLA) teatas reedel, et nende peainsener Peter Rawlinson ja šassii arendusosakonna juht Nick Sampson on firmast lahkunud. Aktsia reageeris sellele uudisele üsna valulikult ja kukkus ligi 20%, $ 23 taseme juurde.
Täna on nii Morgan Stanley ja Goldman Sachs omapoolsete kommentaaridega väljas.
Morgan Stanley analüütikud ütlevad, et kuigi antud uudist ei saa kuidagi positiivsena tõlgendada, siis peale vestlust firma juhtkonnaga kinnitavad analüütikud, et lahkumised ei ole seotud Tesla X mudeli arendusega ning ühtlasi kulgeb ka Mudel S-i turule toomise protsess igati plaanipäraselt.
The market may read the departures as suggesting there are problems with the launch of the Model S. According the company, Peter left voluntarily due to family illness and had fully transitioned off the Model S program, devoting only limited time to advanced engineering and the Model X.
Tesla has recently and frequently reiterated that the Model S launch is progressing well and is set for first deliveries by July or sooner. Our 2012 forecast is for 2,000 Model S deliveries, or roughly one-third the company’s guidance.
Morgan Stanleyl on TSLA aktsiale küll Müü reiting koos $ 44 hinnasihiga, aga analüütikute sõnul on negatiivne vaade pigem seotud elektriautode tulevikuperspektiivi osas üldiselt.
Goldman Sachsi analüütikud aga asuvad aktsia suhtes pullide leeri ning tõstavad TSLA reitingu Hoia pealt osta peale koos $ 35 hinnasihiga.
We are upgrading shares of Tesla to Buy from Neutral. Following Friday’s selloff TSLA shares are now 35% off the November 16 peak (vs. the S&P up 4%), which we think provides an attractive entry point. The departure of
chief engineer Peter Rawlinson is negative, but we see sufficient time to manage the departure with the Model S program having moved on to the manufacturing stage and with the Model X not slated for production for approximately 1.5 years. While Tesla’s business model is far from risk free, we believe the company’s unique power-train technology, strong breadth of expertise, and liquidity make for a favorable risk/reward
Nende sõnul on TSLA aktsia saavutanud piisavalt atraktiivse hinnataseme ja kuigi Rawilsoni lahkumine on negatiivne, siis ettevõtte seisukohast pole see kaotus fataalse iseloomuga, sest firmal on unikaalne tehnoloogia, tugev teadmistepagas ja piisavalt likviidsust.
Eelturul kaupleb aktsia juba 11% plusspoolel, $ 25,30 juures. -
Citigroup prelim $0.38 vs $0.61 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, est includes gain from discontinued ops; revs $17.2 bln vs $18.55 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Wells Fargo prelim $0.73 vs $0.73 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $20.6 bln vs $20.07 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
Roth tõstis CLDX reitingu osta peale ja tgt $6. Võib olla huvitav.
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January Empire Manufacturing 13.5 vs 10.0 Briefing.com consensus; December 9.5
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KEM -4.6%, C -2.8%.
Other news: CCL -16.7% (lower following Costa Concordia incident, also downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna), KGC -7.2% (provides preliminary 2011 results, within prior guidance; provides 2012 outlook), RCL -6.1% (trading lower with CCL), PKD -3.2% (announces delayed completion of New Alaska Drilling Rigs and increased costs result in asset impairment charge), MDVN -2.2% (Medivation and Pfizer announce results from Phase 3 concert trial of Dimebon in Alzheimer's Disease; Dimebon did not achieve statistically significant results for either of the two co-primary endpoints). -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MMR +6.0%, CHKP +3.9%.
M&A news: VQ +50.8% (Venoco to be acquired by Chrmn/CEO, with affiliated trusts and foundations, through Denver Parent Corp for 12.50 per share) PVX +16% (Provident Energy Trust to be acquired by Pembina Pipeline Corp), ISTA +11.4% (ISTA Pharm's Board to review Valeant's revised proposal as part of its ongoing review of strategic options), CNVO +2.2% (Convio to be acquired by Blackbaud by for $16.00/share; Acquisition expected to be accretive to BLKB 2012 non-GAAP EPS and contribute to substantial free cash flow).
Select financial related names showing strength: RBS +6%, NBG +5.5%, DB +4.6%, HBC +3.6%, CS +3.4%, BAC +3.2%, UBS +2.2%, STD +1.7%, BCS +1.1%, .
Metals/mining stocks trading higher: HL +5.9%, MT +4.5%, BBL +4.3%, RIO +4.2%, AU +3.9%, BHP +3.3%, SLV +2.6%, GDX +2.1%, AUY +2%, GLD +1.5%, VALE +0.6%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: TOT +3.8%, E +3.3%, RIG +3%, PBR +2.8%, BP +2.5%, STO +0.4%.
Other news: EK +17.6% (Kodak alleges patent infringement against Fujifilm), TSLA +14% (rebounding, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), NOK +7.5% and CLWR +7.0% (still checking), USU +3% (announces in an 8-K the co expects to expense ~$127 million of previously capitalized work in progress costs related to a number of earlier AC100 centrifuge machines used in the lead cascade test program), CVI +2.8% (Carl Icahn discloses 14.54% stake in 13D filing out Friday just after the close).
Analyst comments: ROVI +8.2% (upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray on strong showing at CES), POT +2.3% (upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC), AMAT +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital). -
Dip-Buyers Hold the Key
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Jan 17, 2012 | 7:59 AM
Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
-- Groucho Marx
We are kicking off the week on an upbeat note as economic growth in China came in higher than expected and inflation data in Europe were lower than expected. We also have improved consumer sentiment numbers in Germany as last Friday's well-anticipated downgrade of European sovereign debt is being ignored.
It is obviously strong action, but it is very deceptive. For the third time in 10 trading days in the new year, the big gains have come overnight. Even though the S&P 500 will be up well over 3% for the year if this open holds, you have lost money if you have bought the open and sold the close each trading day. It isn't all that unusual for gains to occur in that manner, but it's tough for shorter-term investors to put money to work.
Although we have good-sized gains and aggressive dip-buying on intraday pullbacks, we don't have any real momentum aside from these gap-up opens. The underlying support has been quite bullish but we have not gained any real traction once the dip-buyers jump in and move the market back up to flat. In fact, if you ignore the three gap-up opens, we are negative for the year.
The media and traditional Wall Street celebrate this action but many traders end up quite frustrated because it isn't nearly as easy to trade as a casual observer of the indices might think. But we should be used to it by now, as this market for several years now has rallied straight up on light volume and weak technical patterns. It has generally paid to chase an uptrend, even when it has a very shaky foundation.
Don't anticipate weakness. The S&P downgrades on Friday would appear to be fairly good catalysts for some profit-taking, but instead they set the stage for a short squeeze this morning on better-than-expected economic news.
The big question for us this week is whether earning season is going to produce a change in mood. We have already had more earnings warnings than we have had in many years, and expectations about individual reports aren't very high -- yet the market is acting like it is expecting a steady supply of blowout reports. It is definitely a "sell the news" setup, but any bear who is overconfident at this point hasn't been paying attention to how easily this market is levitating.
The dilemma of this market is that it is very strong and has excellent underlying support yet it lacks good momentum and has little leadership. Fighting the strength is obviously a losing strategy, but if you aren't catching the bulk of these gap-up opens, you aren't gaining much, either.
Chasing a Monday-morning gap like we have this morning if very tough to do; I expect to see some selling into this open. But the key is the dip-buyers and their tendency to move in quickly on early weakness. As long as they stay busy, the bulls have the advantage. -
Täna on silma jäänud kaks infokildu, mis viitavad väga positiivsele meeleolule:
Speaking of sentiment (and given it was a quiet news flow day) we note that the AAII US Investment Sentiment Bull/Bear ratio has printed >70% in the first two weeks of January 2012. The current reading of 74% is the highest since 6 Jan 2011, and also the fourth highest reading since Jan 2006. For some historical context, the average reading for 2009, 2010, and 2011 was 47%, 55%, and 52%, respectively. (DB)
With the S&P 500 up 13 out of the last 17 days and still challenging the 1290-1310 resistance range, it’s worth noting that NYSE short interest is back to its lowest level since 1Q 2011. The short covering phase of this rally is likely exhausted. As we highlighted in Thursday’s note, the package of sentiment data suggests that investor complacency is growing – just 17% of respondents in the AAII retail survey are bearish (the lowest reading in close to seven years), and the Economic Surprise Indicator suggests the bar is high for additional upside surprises out of the U.S. economic data. (Strategas Research Partners)
Siinkohal võib muidugi olla oluline, et paljudel on kontodel küllaga raha, mida ei ole investeeritud. -
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AlariÜ
Roth tõstis CLDX reitingu osta peale ja tgt $6. Võib olla huvitav.
Päris kena hüpe tuli, sai kaasa sõidetud, tänud. -
STEC: Weakness attributes to SEC investigation into a sales director for insider trading
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/2012/lr22227.htm -
Headlines crossing that Spain will ease deadlines for regions to repay central government
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Cree prelim $0.25 vs $0.26 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $304.1 mln vs $309.61 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Cree sees Q3 ($0.18)-(0.25) vs $0.30 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $290-310 mln vs $320.64 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
Samsung Electronics spokesperson: Not interested in buying RIMM and had never considered it - financial press
- Also not interested in a licensing deal with RIMM.
Eilne WSJ andis ka mõista, et tuleb sellesse rumorisse ettevaatlikult suhtuda.
A RIM Rumor Roundup. Be Careful.
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/01/17/a-rim-rumor-roundup-be-careful/?mod=WSJ_qtoverview_wsjlatest
