Valuutaturud 30. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Goldman leiab, et surve dollarile jätkub, mis üldiselt tähendab just, et aeg minna EUR/USDis lühikeseks
We are Positioned Short the USD Again. The Dollar is likely to embark on a round of broad weakening. The underlying BBoP situation has not improved at all, suggesting that the trend decline remains intact, as we highlighted in the last FX Monthly. But over the last couple of months, the increase in broad risk aversion has helped the trade weighted Dollar to a 6% rally, broadly following the pattern of what we have seen in 2008 and 2010. In both cases, the subsequent relaxation in risk aversion led to a substantial move lower in the Dollar, which then reasserted the underlying down trend. Earlier this week, following the Fed meeting, we initiated fresh short Dollar positions against the EUR, CAD and MXN on the back of this view. -
Uus nädal on turusentimendi jaoks alanud negatiivselt: Kreeka riigi ja erainvestorite vahelised kõnelused on endiselt tulemusteta, mis rõhub omakorda võlakriisile lahenduse leidmist. Suurbritannia rahandusminister George Osborne tõdes Davose majandusfoorumil, et asjaolu, et Kreeka on siiani tähelepanu keskpunktis, näitab selgelt, et probleemi endaga ei ole tegeletud. Olukorra lootusetusele viitab ka nädalavahetusel Saksamaa poolt välja käidud idee, mille kohaselt peaks Kreeka loovutama oma fiskaal- ja maksupoliitika tegemise õiguse täielikult Brüsselile. Kreeka vastas ettepanekule viisakalt „ei aitäh“.
Täna algab Brüsselis samas järjekordne Euroopa Liidu tippkohtumine, kus on arutluse all sel aastal käivituv uus 500-miljardi euro suurune päästefond ja riikide eelarvedefitsiitide kontrollimise kokkulepe.
Olulisematest makronäitajatest avaldatakse täna Saksamaa tarbijahinnaindeksid, mis peaksid ootuste kohasel langema 10 baaspunkti võrra 2,0% peale (Y/Y) ja eelmise kuuga võrreldes tulema -0,4%. Kell 12 ilmuvad eurotsooni jaanuarikuu ärikliima ja tarbijausalduse indeksid. USA sessioonil avaldatakse kell 15.30 eratarbimise ja –sissetulekute detsembrikuu näidud.
Eurotsooni suhtes on turuosaliste meeleolu toetanud Euroopa Keskpanga piiramatus mahus kolme-aastase tähtajaga kommertspankadele suunatud laenuprogramm, mis on aidanud tuua Itaalia 10-aastase võlakirja tulususe detsembrikuu alguse tasemetele allapoole 6% piiri. Hispaania 2-aastase võlakirja tulusus langes reedel madalaima tasemeni alates 2010. aasta novembriust. Euro ise on kahe nädalaga taastunud USA dollari vastu ligi 5%, jõudes reedel $1,3235 tasemeni. Täna on euro aga surve all ja kaupleb hetkel üle poole protsendi jagu miinuspoolel $1,3135 taseme juures. -
USA dollar on Euroopa turgude avanemisel suurim tõusja: AUDUSD -0,95%, EURUSD -0,52%, GBPUSD -0,35%, NZDUSD -0,73%, USDCAD +0,40%, USDCHF +0,55% ja USDJPY -0,06%.
Euroopa aktsiaindeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas 0,3-0,9% miinuspoolel. -
Euro on dollari suhtes üle poole kuu taas suuremat miinust näitamas, kaubeldes -0,95% @ 1,3097 USD
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Tänases Wall Street Journali artiklis kirjutatakse sellest, et IMF on omalt poolt uurimas, kas Hiina jüaan on "liiga odav" - argument, mida USA on pidevalt Hiina-suunalises kriitikas kasutanud.
WASHINGTON—The International Monetary Fund is reviewing whether China's currency should still be considered "substantially undervalued," in light of its rapid rise in the past year.
The review could take months, but if the IMF decides China's yuan is just "undervalued," that milder label could undercut U.S. efforts to challenge Beijing's currency policy in an election year.
The IMF told the Group of 20 industrialized and developing countries last week the yuan's value climbed faster last year than in the past. The effective exchange rate, adjusted for inflation, based against a basket of currencies and accounting for inflation, rose more than 8% in 2011, and the annual rate of appreciation accelerated to almost 20% in the last three months of the year.
The IMF has called China's currency "substantially undervalued" for the past half-decade, a term weighted with political implications for the country and its trade partners.
U.S. leaders have long complained that an undervalued yuan gives China an unfair trade advantage by making its exports cheaper on world markets.
U.S. lawmakers are pushing legislation that would penalize China if the U.S. Treasury found its currency "misaligned." The U.S., as the IMF's largest shareholder and most powerful board member, will help guide how the IMF assesses currencies.
The IMF is conducting a pilot program using a new method to assess exchange rates that takes into account a country's size, its trade relationships and currency reserves.
A less critical assessment by the IMF would make it politically more difficult on the international stage to attack China's currency policy.
Since 2007, the yuan's effective value, adjusted for inflation, has climbed by around 25%, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
With China's exports weakening in a slowing global economy, analysts expect China to slow the rise of the yuan compared with the dollar to between 2% and 3% this year compared to 4.8% in 2011.
USDCNY kahe aasta graafik: -
USDJPY on saanud suurema langushoo sisse, murdes läbi mitu kuud püsinud toetustaseme 76,60 juures. Hetkel kaupleb avanemistaseme suhtes 0,5% miinuspoolel 76,35 tasemel.
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Seoses jeeni tugevnemisega ei saa tähelepanuta jätta Jaapani peaministri tänaseid kommentaare ja hoiatusi võimaliku uue sekkumise eest:
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan's prime minister said Monday the government will keep a close watch on movements in the currency markets and respond "appropriately."
"Excessive volatility in the foreign exchange markets has an adverse effect on economic and financial stability," Yoshihiko Noda said during a parliamentary session.
"We will continue to watch the foreign exchange markets and respond in an appropriate manner."
