Börsipäev 31. jaanuar
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S&P 500 indeks lõpetas eile küll kolmandat päeva järjest miinuspoolel, kuid üle 1%lise langusega alanud sessiooni jooksul suudeti turg sisuliselt tagasi nulli osta. Mis on veidi kummastav on need kaks eri lugu, mida räägivad aktsia- ja võlakirjaturg. S&P 500 on jaanuariga üleval 4,4% samal ajal aga USA valitsuse viie aastase võlakirja yield jõudis eile rekordmadalale tasemele, kui investorid on nõus parkima oma raha väärtpaberisse, mis toodab neile 0,74% aastas ning seda keskkonnas, kus inflatsioon on 2% lähedal. Mingis mõttes näitab see, et investoritel puudub usk, et keskpank suudab erinevate monetaarpoliitiliste vahenditega inflatsiooni tekitada, mistõttu jätkatakse kaitse otsimist jahtuva majanduse eest.
S&P 500
USA valitsuse 5a võlakirja yield
ELi kohtumisel otsustasid eile 27st riigist ootuspäraselt 25 toetada uut rahanduslepingut, kui välja jäid Suurbritannia ja Tšehhi. Prantsusmaal toimub Sarkozy sõnul ratifitseerimine tõenäoliselt pärast aprilli-mai presidendivalimisi, kuna teine peamine kandidaat Francois Hollande sooviks lepingut muuta. Miitingul kinnitati ühtlasi valmisolekut tuua ESM ellu selle aasta esimeseks juuliks.
Tänasest makrost võiks välja tuua Saksamaa jaanuarikuu detsembri ja jaanuari tööturustatistika (kl 10.55), Eurotsooni detsembri töötusmäära (kl 12.00), USA S&P/Case-Shilleri majahindade novembri indeksi (kl 16.00), Chicago jaanuari PMI (kl 16.45) ja jaanuarikuu tarbijausalduse indeksi (kl 17.00).
USA indeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas 0,3% plussis, Euroopa on avanemas 0,7% kõrgemal. -
Saksamaa jaemüük vähenes detsembris -0,9% võrreldes 2010.a sama perioodiga. Konsensus ootas aga 0,9%list tõusu. Väga palju see number meeleolu ei tohiks mõjutada, kuna tegemist on suhteliselt volatiilse näitajaga.
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Tänane FT kirjutab, et veebruarikuu LTRO võib kujuneda eelmisest kaks korda suuremaks, küündides vahest isegi 1 triljoni euroni, kuna paljud pangad on nentinud soovi kahe-kolmekordistada laenusoovi võrreldes eelmise LTRO-ga. See oleks oluliselt suurem summa, kui paljud praegu arvavad, kuna konsensus ootab hetkel 325 miljardi euro suurust nõudlust.
Several of the eurozone’s biggest banks have told the Financial Times that they could well double or triple their request for funds in the ECB’s three-year money auction on February 29.
“Banks are not going to be as shy second time round,” said the head of one eurozone bank at last week’s World Economic Forum in Davos. “We should have done more first time.” -
Saksamaa töötururaport tuli oodatust tugevam: töötute arv langes jaanuaris 34 000 tuhande võrra (vs oodatud 10 000) ja töötusmäär langes 10 baaspunkti võrra 6,7% peale.
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Saksamaa jaanuari töötusemäär on Bloombergist vaadates madalaim tase vähemalt viimase 20 aasta jooksul.
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Eurozone Unemployment Rate 10.4% vs 10.4% prior
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Deutsche Bank on teinud mõned tähelepanekud seni raporteerinud ettevõtete tulemustest:
Paremast EPS-st teatanud firmasid on vähem kui eelmistel kvartalitel, aga lähedal ajaloolisele keskmisele (60% on EPS ületanud/ 62% finantsettevõtteid arvestamata ja 10% -i EPS ootustele vastav)
Käesoleva aasta prognoos on liikunud pigem neutraalselt negatiivsele versus konsensus (2,4% madalam kui konsensuse keskmine).
Marginaalid jätkuvalt konsenuse ootustest kõrgemad (60% ettevõtetest ja 63% finantsettevõtteid arvestamata)
Business Insiderist saab lugeda täpsemalt. -
On teada fakt, et tööpuudus Euroopa noorte seas on valus teema ja Eurostati viimaste andmete põhjal (detsember 2011) oli Euroopa Liidus ilma tööta 5,49 miljonit noort inimest (alla 25), kellest 3,29 elab eurotsoonis.
Võrreldes 2010. aastaga kasvas noorte Euroopa Liidus tööpuudus 241000 ja eurotsoonis 113000 inimese võrra.
Allikas: Business Insider -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PRXL +10.5%, HOLX +7.1%, RTEC +6.8%, ARMH +4.5%, SCMF +4.3%, (thinly traded), MCK +3.8%, LLY +3.2%, X +2%, UPS +1.3%, PFE +1%.
Financial related names showing strength: AEG +6.6%, IBN +5.6%, NBG +4%, ING +2.4%, UBS +1.8%, JPM +1.2%, BAC +1.1%, BCS +1%, DB +1%, C +0.9%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: RIO +2%, MT +1.8%, BHP +1.4%, GOLD +1.1%, GLD +0.6%, SLV +0.5%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: TOT +1.6%, RIG +1.4%, WLT +1.4%, BP +1.3%, RDS.A +0.6%.
A few rare earth names are trading higher following reports related to pressure on China to increase prices: AVL +4.3%, REE +2.4%, MCP +2.2%.
Other news: BPAX +6.2% (continues to investigate alternative strategies to utilize the continuing LibiGel cardiovascular event and breast cancer safety study), RENN +4.8% (still checking), NPSP +4.6% (announces FDA Acceptance of New Drug Application for GATTEX for the treatment of adult short bowel syndrome), YPF +2.7% (disclosed that it is not aware of any material corporate developments which could account for the recent unusual trading activity), NWL +1.6% and KLAC +0.4% (positive mention on MadMoney), CSTR +1.5% (Redbox Automated Retail announced a renewal agreement with Walmart to continue featuring Redbox kiosks at more than 3,700 Walmart locations nationwide, discloses COO leave of absence).
Analyst comments: VE +5.6% (upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley), CX +2.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), WLT +1.9% (Walter Energy upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Sterne Agee), FTE +1% (France Telecom upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies ). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RSH -30.4% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Montgomery Scott ), ALGN -6.6%, KLIC -6.6% (light volume), RCII -6.1%, ADM -4.4%, PCL -4.4% (also downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), ICUI -4%, ORA -3.7% (light volume), LXK -2.2%, IDTI -1.4% (light volume), XOM -0.7%.
Other news: REXX -5.7% (announced that it is commencing, subject to market conditions, an underwritten public offering of 7.0 million shares of its common stock), BIDU -1.9% (still checking), PHYS -1.8% (announces follow-on offering of trust units), WAB -0.8% (continued weakness following afternoon sell-off on railway crash system delay speculation).
Analyst comments: VIVO -1.2% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Wedbush), POT -0.3% (Potash downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman) -
RENN +4.8% (still checking)
Mitmes päev juba läheb? -
ymeramees
RENN +4.8% (still checking)
Mitmes päev juba läheb?
Eks niikaua checitakse ,kui see lõustapäevik oma IPO ära teeb ja siis vaadatakse õunte pealt edasi:) -
ymeramees
RENN short siis?
Kolmanda päeva hommikul e. täna, teeb avanemisel viimase flush-up ja kolinaga alla :)
IMHO -
Baltic Dry index tänaseks 31 järjestikust päeva kukkunud, kaubeldes 65% madalamal detsembri keskpaiga tasemest. Täna kogunes miinust 3,1% ning sulguti 680 punktil, mida Bloombergi graafik veel ei kajasta. Sellega on indeks jõudnud tagasi 2008.a põhjade juurde
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Same Old Song
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Jan 31, 2012 | 7:44 AM EST | 4 Comments
If we wait for the moment when everything, absolutely everything is ready, we shall never begin.
-- Ivan Turgenev
It has been a while since we've had a "Greece is saved!" rally, but we have a decent one kicking in this morning. It is the same old news that a deal with creditors will be finalized soon, but that is all that is needed to attract some buyers this morning.
There also is talk that Portugal is heading down the same path as Greece, but if we can keep bouncing back every time Greece is about to be saved, then maybe we can rally a dozen times as Portugal is saved as well. At the moment all that matters is that there are talks and meetings and potential deals in Europe, and that pleases the market.
So after three weak days in a row, can the market regain its footing and run a bit? Although we have lost a little ground recently, we continue to see some very strong underlying support. The bears have had some chances but are unable to dig a claw into this market. We had an intraday reversal and a trend-down day last Thursday, but on Friday and Monday we bounced back and closed at the highs after gapping down. That helps to produce some squeezes, keeps the bears at bay and drives the underinvested bulls to put money to work. This "wall of worry" action is holding the market up well.
The other positive aspect of three days of weakness is that we have worked off some of the overbought conditions and are building some support from which we can work higher if the bulls can generate some momentum again. We haven't seen a lot of strong momentum so far. In fact, one of the problems with the market action so far this year is that our big gains have come overnight and we haven't gained much additional momentum after the dip-buyers move us back up to even. We have great support, but the buying has had a tendency to taper off as we move into the green.
The market doesn't look bad here, but I'm still not finding many appealing chart setups. There are always a few charts of interest, but solid bases with big-volume breakouts that aren't too extended are tough to find. As a result I end up being more a daytrader than I'd like, as I have to work hard to put cash to work intraday and don't have the resolve to hold for long.
Over the past couple years, it's been hard to trust the market even when the technical are looking bullish. The big macroeconomic concerns are always in the back of my mind. I deal with that by using shorter-term time frames. The downside is that I will too often sell good stocks prematurely and then will have to work hard to try to put money to work again. I'm always looking for new buys, and the market conditions seldom make it easy.
So once again I'm back in a familiar position. I'm not bearish, but I'm not heavily invested and I don't see a lot of great charts. I have a few things on my radar I'll pursue once trading starts, and I'll be digging hard for more opportunities, but loading up and riding dozens of positions like we used to do all the time seems unlikely.
Lately the market hasn't done very well when it gaps up to start the day. Traders know that, and I'm looking for them to try to fade this open -- but, as we know, the dip-buyers are likely standing by and ready to act on any weakness. -
November Case-Shiller 20-city Index -3.7% vs -3.2% Briefing.com consensus, Prior -3.4%
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January Chicago PMI 60.2 vs 62.8 Briefing.com consensus, Prior 62.5 Ilmselt jahutab mõnevõrra ootusi ka homse ISMi osas
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January Consumer Confidence 61.1 vs 67.0 Briefing.com consensus; December 64.8
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Erko Rebane,
kas tõesti Ivan Turgeniev ütles seda, If we wait for the moment when everything, absolutely everything is ready, we shall never begin, vene keeles?! -
Facebooki $ 100 miljardi suurune IPO on turuosaliste seas viimaste päevade jooksul tublisti elevust tekitanud ja Streetinsider.com on välja toonud nende ettevõtete aktsiad, mis Facebookiga rohkem või vähem seotud on ja IPO ootuses sümpaatiana ülespoole on liikunud.
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Kes otsib oma investeerimisportfelli väärtusaktsiaid, siis Societe Generale analüütikud on pannud kokku 40 parimat dividendiaktsiat üle maailma. Nimekirja saab näha läbi Business Insideri.
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Halliburton: Headlines crossing that BP required to reimburse HAL on compensatory claims of oil spill; U.S. judge says indemnification required even if HAL was grossly negligent
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stocker
ymeramees
RENN short siis?
Kolmanda päeva hommikul e. täna, teeb avanemisel viimase flush-up ja kolinaga alla :)
IMHO
RENN +4.8% to -4.6%
No mis ma ütlesin. :) Shortida on seda raske, turult ei pruugi laenajaid leida. -
Kust shorti said?
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ymeramees
Kust shorti said?
Ega ei leidnudki. :)
Mis veel huvitavat täna? -
Amazon.com prelim $0.38, may not compare to $0.17 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $17.43 bln vs $18.21 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Amazon.com reports Q4 operating margin of 1.5% vs 0.7% last qtr and 3.7% Q4 year ago
Amazon.com reports Q4 operating income of $260 mln vs ~$90 mln estimate and co’s ($200)-250 mln guidance
