Börsipäev 6. veebruar
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Üldiselt on USA tööjõuraporti järgne nädal makrouudiste osas suhteliselt hõre, mistõttu saab kogu tähelepanu endale taas Kreeka. Pärast S&P 500 reedest 1,4%list tõusu on USA futuurid täna hommikul veidi järgi andmas ning euro dollari suhtes ligi -0,7% punases peamiselt just mure tõttu Kreeka võla läbirääkimiste pärast.
FT kirjutab, et poliitiliste erakondade liidrid on nõus osade troika nõudmistega (näiteks kulutuste vähendamine sel aastal 3 miljardi euro jagu), kuid kokkuleppele ei suudetud jõuda erasektori palgakärbete, lisapensionite vähendamise ja umbes 100 avalikule sektorile kuuluva ettevõtte sulgemise osas, mistõttu on peaminister Lucas Papademos andnud kolmele erakonnajuhile aega täna keskpäevani, et anda mõista, kas nad on põhimõtteliselt nõus troika nõudmistega enne, kui täna õhtupoole nendega uuesti kohtub.
Mida kauem läbirääkimised venivad, seda suuremaks kasvab tõenäosus, et Kreeka ei suuda maksta 20. märts aeguvat 14,5 miljardi euro suurust võla tagasimakset.
Nädala olulisematest sündmustest tasub kindlasti välja tuua veel euroala rahandusministrite miitingut nädala teises pooles, kus tõenäoliselt arutatakse läbirääkimiste progressi Kreeka valitsuse ja erasektori vahel. Lisaks sellele langetavad intressimäära otsuse Euroopa ja Inglise keskpank, kus esimese puhul midagi radikaalset ei oodata, teise puhul aga prognoositakse QE programmi suurendamist. -
S&P 500 ettevõtetest on oma möödunud kvartali numbrid raporteerinud 269 firmat ning DB koostatud statistika põhjal võib tõdeda, et EPSi ootuste ületamise/allajäämise suhe on 67%/31% ning müügitulude osas veidi nõrgem 55%/45%. Stoxx600 puhul on tulemused seni avaldanud 77 ettevõtet, kellest 49% on ületanud aktsiakasumi ootusi, mis on mitme aasta madalaim tase. Samas tulude pool on märksa positiivsem, kui 60% on suutnud ületada analüütikute konsensust.
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IMF langetas Hiina käesoleva aasta majanduskasvu prognoosi 9,0% pealt 8,25% peale. IMFi sõnul on Hiina eksport nõrgenemas, mis koos ebakindla maailmamajanduse seisuga mõjub Hiina majandusele negatiivselt. Inflatsioon on IMFi hinnangul langemas, mis annab võimaluse lõdvemat monetaarpoliitikat rakendades majandusele tuge pakkuda. MarketWatchi vahendusel:
In its China Economic Outlook report released Monday, the IMF said China's growth rate, which stood at 9.2% last year, would drop abruptly if the euro zone experienced a sharp recession.
The organization's assessment comes as investors brace themselves for a fresh slew of Chinese economic data, which are expected to show steadily easing inflation but further weakness in the country's export sector.
Despite the expected slowdown, "China has room for a countervailing fiscal response and should use that space" to provide more stimulus to the domestic economy, the IMF said, adding that it expects world's No. 2 economy to gather speed next year and grow at 8.75%.
However, the IMF warned that unlike the CNY4 trillion anti-crisis stimulus in 2008 that produced a worrisome lending binge, Beijing should execute any fresh stimulus through its budget rather than the banking system.
China's inflation has peaked and is coming down to "more comfortable levels," which should allow the authorities to finetune monetary conditions and supply the economy with "modest additional" credit, the IMF said. -
Eurostat avalikustas täna esmakordselt valituste võla kvartaalsed andmed. 17 eurotsooni riigi võla suhe SKPsse langes 2011. a kolmandas kvartalis teise kvartali 87.7% pealt 87.4% peale, kuid probleemriikide võlatase jätkas kasvamist. Samal ajal kui Eesti valitsuse võlg/SKPsse oli 6.1% (madalaim EL-is), siis Kreeka vastav näitaja oli 159.1% (kõrgeim). Olgu öeldud, et Kreeka teise kvartali võlg SKPsse oli 154.7% ja 2010. aasta kolmandast kvartalis 138.8%. Kreeka võlataseme kiire kasv selgitab ka, miks EL ja IMF on seadnud Kreeka valitsusele eesmärgiks jõuda erasektoriga võla mahakirjutamise osas kokkuleppele.
Turuosalised kardavad, et investorid peavad sarnaste kokkulepetega kokku puutuma ka Portugalis, kus 110.1%-line võlatase jääb kõvasti alla Kreeka näitajale, kuid tegi päris kiire tõusu teise kvartali 106.5% pealt ja 2010 Q3 91.2% pealt. Iirimaa valitsuse võlg suhtena SKPsse kasvas eelmise aasta kolmandas kvartalis 102.3% pealt 104.9%-ni.
Väljaspool eurotsooni kasvas Ungari valitsuse võlg 77.7% pealt 82.6%-ni SKP-st ning Suurbritannias tõusis see näitaja 83.9% pealt 85.2%-ni. -
Saksmaaa detsembrikuu tehastetellimuste andmed tulid oodatust paremad: +1,7% vs oodatud +1,0% (M/M) ja aastasel baasil 0,0% vs oodatud -0,4%.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GOLD +3.9%, HCA +2.6% (light volume).
M&A news: SURW +9% (SureWest Comm to be acquired by Consolidated Communications Holdings for $23.00/share), CHUX (halted, Fidelity National Financial announces agreement to acquire O'Charley's for $9.85 per share in cash).
Other news: THLD +12.7% (continued strength), TIVO +6.9% (higher following Barron's mention), DEPO +7.0% (announces FDA approval of Merck's JANUMET XR that accesses Depomed patents licensed to Merck- DEPO received $10 mln upon signing the license agreement), RVBD +3.5% (still checking), GM +2.3% (General Motors CFO wants to raise co's profit margin to 10% from 6%, according to reports).
Analyst comments: CFX +3.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), PPO +2.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird), BRO +1.8% (light volume, upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair), GLW +1.5% (upgraded at Piper Jaffray), FDX +1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), KRA +0.6% (ticking higher; upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc). -
Täna langetab Piper Jaffray Regeneron (REGN) reitingu Osta pealt Hoia peale koos $ 81 hinnasihiga.
Downgrading REGN Shares to Neutral. Our top pick Regeneron has been one the of best performing biotech stocks year to date, closing Friday at a primary market cap of $8.8 billion not including all fully-diluted shares, warrants and options.
Last week, Roche predicted that U.S. Lucentis sales would decline this year after growing 23% to $1.6 billion in 2011. The question is how much share will EYLEA take and how much is Regeneron really worth today? Trading at a primary market cap of $8.8 billion, even significant upside to our forecast and other positive news is priced in. While we continue to like Regeneron with multiple biotherapeutic drugs to drive value long term, we are downgrading shares of REGN to Neutral from Overweight and maintaining our $81 price targe
We believe the primary driver of this performance has been EYLEA, but also significant short covering. We see REGN shares as presently over-extended even if EYLEA dramatically exceeds management's 2012 guidance.
Analüütikute hinnangul on REGN aktsia, mis on tänu väga edukale EYLEA ravimi turule toomisele rallinud viimase kuu ajaga 85%, nüüd juba sisse arvestanud kõik head uudised ja ka selle, kui EYLEA müük peaks märkimisväärselt ületama juhtkonna 2012. aasta prognoose.
Teisalt on täna REGN hinnasihti omakorda tõstmas Jefferies $ 75 pealt $ 111 peale ja seda eelkõige just EYLEA edu tõttu, mis uuringute põhjal on aina kiiremas tempos asendamas REGN konkurendi Roche Lucentist.
Nädal tagasi postitasin foorumisse calli, kus REGN osas oli positiivse note`ga väljas Merrill Lynch. Kuigi päeva algus oli tookord REGN jaoks nõrk, siis ülejäänud nädalal on aktsia siiski üsna jõuliselt oma rallit jätkanud ja tänaseks juba tõusnud ligi 15%.
Tänase Jaffray callil pole sisuliselt ühetgi teist argumenti reitingu langetamiseks, kui aktsia meeletu tõus alates käesoleva aasta algusest. Mõnikord ka sellest täiesti piisab, aga kuigi aktsias on paljud lühikeseksmüüjad oma kahjumid juba lukku pannud, siis neid on seal endiselt 12% järel. Sellest tulenevalt tuleks olla täna ehk ka keskmisest konservatiivsem.
Eelturul kaupleb aktsia $ 95 taseme all ehk 2% miinuspoolel. -
Rambus acquires Unity Semiconductor for $35 mln in cash
Huvitav uudis. -
Goldman on täna lisanud Tenneco (TEN) oma osta listi, siin vist müügikoht?
Tenneco added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman
Reedel lisas Goldman Alexion Pharma (ALXN) oma osta listi, peale avanemisel gapiga koos spurtimist, sai kogu ülejäänud päeva müüki.
Alexion Pharma added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman -
QIHU Qihoo 360 Tech. trades to $17.30 in pre-market following Bloomberg.com report that Qihoo Mobile Apps removed from Apple's App Store
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-06/china-s-qihoo-360-says-its-mobile-apps-removed-from-apple-store.html?cmpid=yhoo -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SOHU -11.2%, CYOU -6.2%, HUM -3.2%, HAS -2.4% (light volume).
Select financial related names showing weakness: DB -2.9%, BCS -2.9%, ING -2.1%, CS -1.9%, C -0.9%.
Other news: ZGNX -12.1% (files for $75 mln mixed securities shelf offering), YOKU -4.9% (ticking lower following SOHU results), RBY -3.5% (announces Cdn$200 million bought deal financing), TS -2.8% (still checking), ANR -2.7% (to cut coal produciton at certain mines in the Central Appalachia region), MU -2.6% (President/COO Marc Durcan will assume the responsibilities of CEO until a successor is appointed by the Board, pursuant to co's bylaw's; appoints Mark Durcan as CEO), BA -2% (Boeing plans to correct Dreamliner problem with fuselage, according to reports), AMZN -0.5% (following cautious mention in Barron's).
Analyst comments: WY -2.3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), ABB -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), MGM -1.9% (MGM Resorts downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman). -
Cablevision trades to HoD; Hearing move attributed to renewed takeover chatter
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Citigroup hakkab esimese Ameerika finantsettevõttena Hiinas pakkuma krediitkaarte.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-06/citigroup-to-be-2nd-foreign-bank-to-issue-credit-cards-in-china.html -
Olge head riputage selle investeerimiguru päevakommentaarid ka üles, oli hea lugemine.
Tänud! -
BATS Global Markets received approval from SEC to implement its new Competitive Liquidity Provider program
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REGN-i kohta polegi täna midagi muud öleda, et see oli absoluutne fail. Aktsia avanes $ 94,75 pealt ja eelturu miinusest ei jäänud enam midagi järele, sest alates avanemisest pole aktsia näidanud mitte ühtegi nõrkuse momenti ning on kindlameelselt ülespoole tiksunud. Lühikeseksmüüjate kaotused sai täna REGN-s jätku.
Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $ 99,70 kandis, 2,8% plusspoolel. -
Bloomberg TV headlines crossing wires that Papademos saying that a potential Greece deal has been struck
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Telefonica S.A. trades lower on increased volume following intraday downgrade at tier 1 firm
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Netflix pops to highs on heavy volume; strength attributed to report about potential inclusion in AAPL HDTV following Best Buy survey
http://www.theverge.com/2012/2/5/2773840/apple-hdtv-itv-best-buy-survey -
Vringo Inc, tegevusest:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1udkx5G-vw -
Canadian Pacific: Reuters discusses that Bill Ackman is not looking to takeover CP, according to reports out earlier today
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/06/canadianpacific-ackman-idUSL2E8D67E220120206
Aktsia kauplemas päeva tippudes, mis toimub? -
Idenix Pharma trades to highs on heavy volume; strength attributed to renewed takeover rumor
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Resistance Is Futile
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre | Feb 06, 2012 | 8:37 AM EST
"Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen." --Albert Einstein
As the market blasted higher following better-than-expected jobs news, nearly every commentator on Real Money expressed some level of caution.
In view of how we have gone straight up with no rest since mid-December, it isn't surprising that active market players would be looking to increase defensiveness and protect profits as the market becomes more and more oversold. It's common sense to look for a pullback when we haven't had one in a very long time.
Unfortunately, this market has made being cautious look foolish. Many of the arguments for why we are due for a pause could have been made weeks ago. Nothing much has changed except we had some decent economic reports and have become even more extended.
The great difficulty is that there is very little correlation between common sense and accurate market timing. If you try to use logic to determine when the market will make a sudden turn, you will almost always be wrong.
In fact, the tendency is that the more illogical the market action may appear to be, the more it tends to act that way. That is because market players hate losing money, so when the market is doing something they don't expect, they tend to put aside their arguments to the contrary and try to jump on board. As a result, a very extended market, like we had Friday, just keeps running. It might not have been logical to keep on chasing given the technical pattern, but it was a moneymaker and that is all that matters to most traders.
So here we are once again with a market that is obviously extended and in need of a rest. The problem is that it is just too easy to make a bear case here. This market has been walking the high wire and is increasingly unstable, but underlying support is so strong and there are so many underinvested bulls anxious to buy a pullback that it's hard to believe we can see any meaningful downside. Dip-buying has worked extremely well and one thing you can count on from market players is to continue to repeat a pattern that works.
I have to admit I'd prefer a pause to let some of the charts reset. While I like to play momentum, I don't like buying things that are straight-up with no consolidation for weeks. They definitely can keep on running but I find it difficult to aggressively put money to work except for very short term time frames. Unfortunately, the market beast doesn't care what I want, even when I argue that it is just plain common sense.
Hoping for consolidation is not a good way to make money, so my approach is to respect this very persistent trend and keep digging for places to put money to work. Sooner or later, we will correct a bit and I'll definitely be ready for it, but I don't want to stand aside and miss gains in the near term if the trend persists.
If the market had the normal ebb and flow within an uptrend like we used to see prior to the meltdown in 2008-2009, it wouldn't be as hard because there would still be plenty of charts developing. It no longer works that way in this new environment where the moves are totally lopsided. If you aren't in, you really miss out. And since everyone is aware of that, they keep us running.
We have minor weakness on negative growth news from China, but the key to this market remains the dip-buyers. Until the action shows some inclination to stand aside, fighting this market is just plain foolish. -
Medco Health Solutions drops to lows; move attributed to Reuters headline suggesting skepticism is growing around ESRX deal
$56 pealt tundub isegi päevasisene ostukoht kiire bounce püüdmiseks, äärmiselt riski asi. -
Medco Health Solutions ticking off the lows; hearing sellside firm out defending in wake of stories
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Computer Sciences trades lower following cautious mention at tier 1 firm
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Veeco Instruments prelim $0.72 vs $0.67 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $191.7 mln vs $192.99 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Veeco Instruments sees Q1 $0.13-0.34 vs $0.40 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $115-140 mln vs $151.73 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
Coinstar prelim $1.00 vs $0.64 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $520 mln vs $498.48 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Coinstar sees Q1 $0.76-0.91 vs $0.86 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $530-555 mln vs $517.85 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
NCR Corp beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides FY12 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus
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Anadarko Petro prelim $0.72 vs $0.62 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $3.84 bln vs $3.29 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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Coinstar: CSTR set to resume trading on NASDAQ @ 16:25 p.m. ET
