Börsipäev 7. veebruar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Vaatamata sellele, et läbirääkimised Kreekas ei ole sujumas kõige paremini, peavad turud üsna edukalt erinevatele kommentaaridele vastu. Pärast viienädalast järjestikust tõusu avaneti eile pisut suurema müügisurve saatel, ent sessiooni lõpuks olid indeksid tagasi nulli ostetud. Allolevalt graafikult on aga näha, et NYSE käive oli eile vägagi tagasihoidlik ja see soodustab väikeste panustega ülespoole tiksumist.
NYSE composite volume (mln aktsiat)
Makro pool mõjub sentimendile toetavalt (eile avaldatud Saksamaa tehaste tellimuste muutus oodatust parem), kuid läbirääkimised nii Kreeka PSI teemal kui ka troikaga ei ole siiani konkreetset lahendust leidnud, lisades määramatust ja närvilisust. Lucas Papademos kohtus eile troikaga ning täna opositsiooni liidritega, et täiendavatele reformidele heakskiit saada. Erinevate allikate sõnul taotleb troika riigitöötajate arvu vähendamist selle aasta lõpuks 15 000 võrra ning sellega ollakse nõus, kuid täiendavaid nõudmisi (reformid riigi konkurentsivõime tõstmiseks) hakatakse arutama täna. Lisaks sellele on Kreeka avaliku ja erasektori suurimad ametiühikud korraldamas 24tunnist streiki. Makrost võiks välja tuua Saksamaa detsembri tööstustoodangu muutuse (kl 13.00).
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad 0,05% jagu miinuses. -
Austraalia keskpank otsustas riigi baasintressi jätta muutmata 4,25% peale, seda vastupidiselt konsensusele, kes ootas 25 baaspunktist langetamist. RBA sõnul tingis selle nägemus, et majandus peaks kasvama trendi lähedal ning inflatsioon jääma soovitud sihi juurde. Globaalse majanduse seisukohast kahtlemata positiivne sõnum, et väliskeskkond ei ole keskpanga arvates tekitamas riigile üleliigset pinget, millepärast tuleks rahapoliitikat lõdvendada.
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Paul Krugman on oma blogis hästi illustreerimas Kreeka olukorda, kellel tuleb troika seatud eesmärkide täitmiseks vähendada avaliku sektori kulutusi aastaks 2014 65%ni sellest tasemest, mis oli 2009.a aastal. Satutud on väljapääsmatuna tunduvasse olukorda, kus laual on pidevalt täiendavad kasinusmeetmed, mis omakorda vähendavad majandusaktiivsust ning nullivad katse võlakoormuse % SKTst alla tuua.
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Erko tõi varasemas postituses välja, et Kreeka peaminister on öösel toimunud läbirääkimistel Troikaga lubanud vähendada avaliku sektori töötajate arvu 15 000 võrra. Papademos andis sellele lubadusele ka tähtaja: 20. märts. See on ühtlasi päev, mil Kreekal on vaja tagasi maksta 14,5 miljardi euro ulatuses laenukohustusi.
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BP-lt üle ootuste EPS ja firma tõstab ka dividende -esimest korda peale Mehhiko lahes toimunud õnnetust.
BP reports Q4 (Dec) results; raises quarterly div by $0.01 to $0.08 per share (46.87)
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.41 per share, may not be comparable to the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.26; revenues rose 14.7% year/year to $96.34 bln and may not compare to the $108.02 bln consensus. Co confirms the co's expectation that net cash flow in 2014, in a $100 oil price environment, would be around 50% higher than in 2011. -
Saksamaa detsembrikuu tööstustoodang -2,9% vs oodatud 0,0% (M/M) ja aastatagusega võrreldes +0,9% vs oodatud +4,3%.
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Risto Sverdlik
Erko tõi varasemas postituses välja, et Kreeka peaminister on öösel toimunud läbirääkimistel Troikaga lubanud vähendada avaliku sektori töötajate arvu 15 000 võrra. Papademos andis sellele lubadusele ka tähtaja: 20. märts. See on ühtlasi päev, mil Kreekal on vaja tagasi maksta 14,5 miljardi euro ulatuses laenukohustusi.
Risto, kas sul on sellele tähtaja andva viite? Ma pole veel suutnud leida muud, kui viidet selle, et 15 000 läheb aasta lõpuks. Probleem Kreeka tööministril on selles, et ta ei taha (jätkuvalt) kedagi koondada, vaid töökoha kaotavad organisatsioonide liitmisel ülejäävad isikud. Isegi selleks pidavat koostama mingi sobivuse kriteeriumid või mingid muud kantseliidi funktsionaalseid meetrikaid tõendamaks kellegi sobivust. Kuigi pole kahtlust, see kord 15 000 läheb.
Papademos pidas troikaga läbirääkimisi kuni kella 4 hommikuni. Karmid vennad, ja nad täna peavad olema adekvaadsed. -
winger
Risto Sverdlik
Erko tõi varasemas postituses välja, et Kreeka peaminister on öösel toimunud läbirääkimistel Troikaga lubanud vähendada avaliku sektori töötajate arvu 15 000 võrra. Papademos andis sellele lubadusele ka tähtaja: 20. märts. See on ühtlasi päev, mil Kreekal on vaja tagasi maksta 14,5 miljardi euro ulatuses laenukohustusi.
Risto, kas sul on sellele tähtaja andva viite? Ma pole veel suutnud leida muud, kui viidet selle, et 15 000 läheb aasta lõpuks. Probleem Kreeka tööministril on selles, et ta ei taha (jätkuvalt) kedagi koondada, vaid töökoha kaotavad organisatsioonide liitmisel ülejäävad isikud. Isegi selleks pidavat koostama mingi sobivuse kriteeriumid või mingid muud kantseliidi funktsionaalseid meetrikaid tõendamaks kellegi sobivust. Kuigi pole kahtlust, see kord 15 000 läheb.
Papademos pidas troikaga läbirääkimisi kuni kella 4 hommikuni. Karmid vennad, ja nad täna peavad olema adekvaadsed.
Mul jäi see silma The Guardiani blogis. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CSTR +17.6% (also announces plan to acquire the assets of NCR's Entertainment Line of Business for up to $100 mln), NCR +8.3% (Coinstar to acquire the assets of NCR's entertainment line of business for up to $100 mln), SPF +7.4%, CBAK +6.8% (thinly traded), FN +3% (also upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley), PRGO +2%, YUM +1.8%, KFN +1.6%, VSH +1.6% (ticking higher), APC +1.4%, MT +1.2%, KO 1.1%.
M&A related: CLF +2.0% (Bloomberg discusses CLF's attractive valuation and potential for it to be a takeover target), MHS +1.2% and ESRX +0.7% (both modestly rebounding following NYPost report suggesting that the Medco Health Solutions deal with Express Scripts has a more than 50% of getting approval from FTC).
Other news: BPAX +17.1% (continued strength following yesterday's 40% jump higher), BMTI +4.9% (announced results of its 30 patient Canadian Augment Rotator Cuff Graft clinical trial - The product achieved its primary safety endpoint, which was evaluated by a comparison of adverse events), S +2.8% (Sprint partners with Orange business services to extend Global M2M Reach), NVO +2.7% (still checking), HGSI +2.1% (higher following GSK results). -
Cliffs Natural Resources: Bloomberg discusses CLF's attractive valuation and potential for it to be a takeover target
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-07/cliffs-becomes-easy-target-with-cheapest-mining-value-in-america-real-m-a.html -
See teeb asja huvitavaks ja see teeb asja lausa paremaks. Kui ei saa nõuga, siis saab alati jõuga.
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Medco Health Solutions deal with Express Scripts (ESRX) has a more than 50% of getting approval from FTC, according to reports
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/medco_merger_not_as_sick_as_some_yNEjmXEjrvFs7amT6xjRKM -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KNXA -10.8%, PMCS -5.8%, RATE -5.7%, CFX -5.3%, IDCC -4.7%, VECO -4.2% (also announces LG Siltron and Epistar selections of VECO MOCVD systems), OMI -4.1%, CBM -3.4% (light volume), GSK -2.4%, SREV -2%, BP -2%, SWI -1.6%, AGNC -0.9% (Board of Directors declared Q1 cash dividend of $1.25/share, prior dividend $1.40/share).
Metals/mining stocks trading lower: RIO -1.7%, FCX -1.3%, BHP -1.2%, GOLD -1.1%, SLV -1.1%, BBL -0.9%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -1.7%, STO -1.6%, RIG -1.3%, TOT -1.2%.
Other news: VPHM -6.6% (provides update on industrial scale supplement for Cinryze (C1 Esterase Inhibitor [Human]); says the FDA has three comments related to a portion of the cleaning validation for industrial scale manufacturing, of which only one requires additional unplanned activity ), ALU -4.1% (still checking for anything specific), SBH -2.8% (announces commencement of a secondary common stock offering).
Analyst comments: ACHN -6.7% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), WAG -2.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup), DRIV -2.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), GCI -2.2% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Lazard), SOHU -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna), AUY -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Dahlman Rose), AZN -0.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill). -
Toon siia välja 2 linki, mis baseeruvad briefingu USA turu käibe graafikul:
http://www.briefing.com/common/images/content/pagecontent/DailyColumns/20120207075434ny.jpeg
http://www.briefing.com/common/images/content/pagecontent/DailyColumns/20120207075521nq.jpeg
Ja neid mahte ei saa kaugeltki võrrelda eelmise aastaga. -
See ongi see "new normal".
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The Uptrend Stays Intact
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Feb 07, 2012 | 8:25 AM
"Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." --T. S. Eliot
The market has been at high risk for a correction for several weeks but it hasn't mattered. Worrying that a sudden collapse is on the horizon has proven to be costly. Dip-buying and momentum overcome any negatives that have existed.
The big question remains: How much longer can this one-way action continue?
The great irony is that everyone is aware that the action is extreme and unsustainable, yet bullishness remains high and there is much complacency. Why should market players worry about things like being overbought or extended when it never seems to matter?
Since the lows of March 2009, we have had similar runs numerous times. We just keep on going although we are obviously in need of a rest. The more we run, the more frustrated the underinvested bulls become and the more they keep the market running.
The most notable aspect of this sort of market action is the tenacious dip-buying. We have not had a significant weak day yet in 2012, simply because the underlying support is so strong. The buyers automatically jump in on any softness because it has worked so well. The dip-buying is an indication that market players are chronically underinvested and the market is not giving them an opportunity to correct that condition.
I can go on at great length about the nature of this market action, but there is really only one thing you need to know. The uptrend is still intact. While risks of a reversal continue to escalate, there is no sign yet that the momentum is coming to an end. In fact, we are seeing less correlated action among stocks and better pockets of momentum, which indicates that market players are becoming more speculative and actively engaging in stock picking rather than just vague bullishness.
The return of stock picking is probably the single biggest positive in this market recently. We had some nice moves on Facebook sympathy, small biotechnology names have been on fire, bulk shipping blasted off the past few days, and there are plenty of individual stocks attracting attention regardless of big-picture concerns. This is a return to the days of old, when exchange-traded funds and high-frequency trading didn't dominate. If it continues, it bodes well for the longer term.
As for this market, we have two choices right now. We can keep on anticipating a market top and be defensive or we can stick with the trend and keep on trying to knock out long trades.
Anticipating a turn will eventually work, but who knows when? It has been a money loser for quite a while. Sticking with the trend obviously carries high risk as we become more and more extended, but a high level of vigilance and tight money management can help prevent any major damage when the inevitable turn does come.
The easy thing to do in this sort of market is to keep looking for a top. The hard thing to do is stay with the trend and to keep trying to buy. We definitely need to be careful about chasing extended conditions, but continuing to do the hard thing is what is making money.
We have some minor weakness to start the day. The key to the action will be to see how the dip-buyers handle it. If they bounce us again and then fade, we may finally be in for a more severe correction. If we hold the intraday lows, watch for the buyers to keep on pushing. -
Neurogesx trading lower premarket following cautious reports related to FDA approval of co's patch for HIV pain
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-07/neurogesx-patch-for-hiv-pain-might-be-ineffective-fda-staff-report-says.html?cmpid=yhoo -
To:AGM
Inimene ju loomult optimist ja kohaneb kõigega:D -
More headlines crossing wires on Europe; Reuters reporting that discussions with the EU Commission and Germany on restructuring are ongoing, and that a deal may fall apart if EU concessions are too high
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Follow up to 8:34 headline: Greece preparing agreement on EUR 130 bln bailout, leaders due to discuss agreement late Tuesday, according to reports
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/07/greece-bailout-idUSA8E7LB02620120207 -
United Therapeutics trading ~1 point lower off the open; Hearing cautious mention at Deutsche Bank
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Sears Hldg moves to highs on pickup in volume; strength attributed to renewed takeover rumor
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SodaStream ticking higher in recent trade; Hearing KFT for SODA speculation as catalyst
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InterOil trading 5 points higher; strength attributed to reports of potential bids for LNG project
http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2012/02/07/kogas-japan-companies-eye-papua-new-guinea-lng/ -
BroadVision drops a quick 19% on heavy volume... not seeing any catalyst at this point
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BroadVisioni kohta siis selline kommentaar:
Second round in $BVSN coming, do u really think the 1.5 million shares traded already to the downside is a fluke. It a precedence my friends -
EU's Juncker says will not convene finance ministers before February 9
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Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke says Fed won't seek higher inflation to boost jobs
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PLX Tech: Balch Hill Capital discloses 9.7% stake in 13D filing; believes that management should seek a buyer for the co to take advantage of the tremendous market interest in the Issuer’s PCI Express switches
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AlariÜ
Kena video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uptAIEyUkM&feature=youtu.be
Linn on Julianos Inkasso reklaame täis:
-- Võlg teeb võerast lanuorja.
-- Долг - начало рабства.
Oleme siis NO inimeste tunnistajateks -
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Wire reports indicate that Greek government official saying that political leaders will be meeting on bailout package on Wednesday; confirms similar headlines out a few hours ago
Reuters reporting that the Greek meeting is being pushed back because "political leaders have yet to get draft of bailout agreement"
Segane lugu:D -
Headlines crossing that Greece Conservative Leader Samaras saying he opposes cuts to pensions
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December Consumer Credit $19.3 bln vs $8.5 bln Briefing.com consensus
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Dow indeks oli viimati sellisel tasemel 2008 aasta mais, kas jõuavad ka lõpuni hoida?
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Hr. Roubini on muutunud turu suhtes positiivseks:D
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46296487 -
AlariÜ
Headlines crossing that Greece Conservative Leader Samaras saying he opposes cuts to pensions
Siin võib olla mitu tõlgendust. Praegu käib läbirääkimine täpse kokkuleppe sõnastuse üle ning on vihjatud, et Samarase vastuseis on sõnastusele, mitte põhimõttele. Küsimus on, alates millisest tasemest kärpida - ND on nõudnud mitte alla €300. Teine probleem on selles, et ND äärmiselt hoolib oma kuvandi sälimisest. Seni on nad tugevasti olnud alampalga, eriti pensionite, kärpimise oasas. Pensionikärbe on siin lisapensioni fondi liitmine põhipensioni fondiga ja kogupensioni kärpimine.
Homme 9:00 on uus kokkusaamine. Tõde ei selgu enne, kui on alla kirjutatud. -
FT Brüsseli blogi väidab, et Olli Rehni kontor ametlikult ei räägi, aga teevad arvutusi, palju Kreeka default maksab. Just in case.
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Buffalo Wild Wings prelim $0.73 vs $0.67 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $220.5 mln vs $210.36 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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Illumina Board unanimously rejects Roche’s unsolicited tender offer as inadequate; urges stockholders not to tender their shares
