Börsipäev 8. veebruar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Karude jaoks on viimasel ajal USA kauplemissessioon alanud paljulubavalt, kuid päeva jooksul saabuvad ostjad tegid eilegi taas puhta töö ning aitasid indeksitel sulguda päeva tippude juures. Dow Jones jõudis sellega kõrgeimale tasemele alates 2008.a maist, S&P 500 indeksil on veel paarkümmend punkti minna ja Nasdaq seadis juba mõni aeg tagasi oma järgmiseks mõõdupuuks tehnoloogiamulli liikumised aastatel 2000-2001. Lühiajaliselt üleostetud turul muutub aktsiate valimine järjest keeruliseks, mida on näha tegelikult ka väga õhukesest käibest, kui suuremad turuosalised otsustavad pigem kõrvaltvaatajaks jääda. See ei tähenda muidugi, et korrektsioon on ukse ees.
Rev Shark: Typically, an uptrending market doesn't need a major pullback to set up new opportunities. A couple of days of profit-taking will be sufficient to reset a few things, but we just haven't seen that with this market. We become more extended as the dips are snapped up by hungry, underinvested bulls. There is an old saying that extended markets can become even more extended. That has certainly been the case. It will end one of these days, but even the fortune-tellers don't have a clue when that might be.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Juba mitu päeva (tegelikult vist nädalaid) oodatakse meediasse pealkirjasid, kas Kreeka on suutnud troikaga kokkuleppele jõuda või mitte. Läbirääkimised, mille lõpuajaks hinnati esmaspäeva õhtut, on nüüd nihkunud tänasele päevale, kuna eile ei õnnestunud troika poolt koostatud lepingu visandit erakonna liidriteni toimetada. Eesti aja järgi kusagil keskpäeval peaks kohtumine algama, kuid vaatamata turgude optimistlikule arvamusele on õhus jätkuvalt palju lahtisi otsi, kuna konservatiivide liider Samaras on kinnitanud oma vastuseisu pensione kärpida.
Makrost pole täna midagi välja tuua ning seda enam jälgitakse pealkirjasid Kreekast.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad 0,2% plussis. -
DailyFX andmetel:
Greek source out with details of debt swap; 50% haircut, avg 3.6% coupon on new bonds, discounted to 3% until 2020, 15% cash paid up front.
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Maailma suurima varahaldaja BlackRocki CEO Larry Fink ütles Blombergile antud intervjuus, et soovitab olla 100% aktsiates. Ta ei usu, et maailm kokku kukub ja seega tuleb lihtsalt olla natuke riskialtim ning muust "mürast" üle olla.
Aktsiad, mis kauplevad oma viimase 20-30 aasta madalaimatel valuatsioonidel, pakuvad tema sõnul praegu väga häid võimalusi.
Be 100% in equities.
Chairman Bernanke is telling you I'm going to keep bond yields so low you can't make a return to meet your needs owning bonds.
It's not that bonds are bad. It's that bonds are priced so high that the returns on bonds are just so minimal.
And I don't have a view that the world's going to fall apart. So you need to take on more risk. You need to overcome all of this noise. And there are great values in equities. Equities are at a 20 to 30 year low in valuation. And when you look at dividend return on equities versus bond yields, then it's a pretty easy decision to be heavily in equities.
Bloombergi intervjuud saab vaadata siin. -
Kreeka teemal veel:
Rumors are circulating about a German press report that Germany is in favor of postponing the majority share of Greek aid.
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Zerohedge on oma blogis toonud ära mõned huvitavad graafikud selle kohta, kuidas lisaks rahalistele probleemidele, mis eelkõige Kreekat ja teisi PIIGS riike vaevavad, ei ole lood väga helged ka riikide ettevõtluskeskonnas. Nimetatud riigid on nimekirja lõpus nii uute ettevõtete loomise kui ka patentide osas, rääkimata sellest, et Kreekas on firma asutamine võrreldes teiste riikidega väga kulukas ettevõtmine (20% keskmisest sissetulekust).
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Reuters kirjutab, et Amazon.com (AMZN)-l kavatseb varsti teatada lepingust Viacomiga, mis on viimane puuduv lüli plaanist tuua turule teenus, mis otseselt konkureerib Netflix (NFLX)-ga. Ühe allika sõnul peaks AMZN uudise teatama juba käesoleval nädalal.
Viacom, mis oma TV seriaale ja filme MTV Networks, Nickelodeon ja Paramount Studiost oleks lisa Amazoni juba olemasolevatele kööstööpartneritele. Seni on olnud Amazoni Prime Instant Video lisaväärtus firma nö kuldklientidele, aga ettevõtte plaan on hakata pakkuma iseseisva teenusena filme ja seriaale ka mitte- kuldklientidele.
Igal juhul oleks see uudis veel üks kaigas NFLX-i kodarasse, sest teatavasti moodustas Coinstar (CSTR) hiljuti liidu Verizon (VZ)-ga ja koos hakatakse pakkuma DVD-de laenutamise teenust (paraku täpsemaid detaile lepingu sisu kohta pole). -
CSTR ja VZ hakkavad pakkuma DVD laenutamist? Seda on natuke raske uskuda :)
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to ymeramees
Vabandust, koostöö hakkab toimuma kombineerituna CSTR Redboxi (DVD ja videomängude laenutus) ja üle interneti laenutamisteenusega VZ-st. -
Doug Kass on võtnud ettevaatlikuma seisukoha öeldes, et paljud turuosalised tunnevad ennast aina kindlamini karjaga kaasa joostes ja soovitab pigem oodata paremat hetke aktsiate ostmiseks, siis kui riski/kasumi suhe parem on.
Doug Kass: As stocks have risen persistently in January and February, many seem to be comforted by following and becoming part of the herd -- adopting a buying-on-strength strategy (especially in recent days). But to me, investing in the market or in individual securities is always about asking myself the question: What is the risk and reward? Chasing stocks (in either direction) is not for me, as price is what you pay, and value is what you get.
Discipline is for me -- now and always.
Wait for your right pitch. Be independent in thought and avoid the lemming-like behavior of the crowds.
Position: Short SPY calls and puts -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SGI -21.4%, RICK -6.7%, WU -6.3%, AINV -5.5% (also authorized management to explore whether the Company should raise up to $200 million of additional equity capital), OPNT -5.1% (light volume), CTSH -3.3%, PNRA -3.1%, ELN -2.7%, LNC -2.6%, NLY -2% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at FBR Capital), NTGR -2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), SYT -1.8%, AUO -1.8%, SNY -1.4%, DIS -1.2%, TWO -0.7%, CMP -0.7% (light volume).
Other news: NURO -13% (priced an offering of 10.5 mln common units at $1.00/share), TNK -12.6% (announced that it plans to offer 15 mln shares of Class A common stock of the Company in a public offering), CRDC -9.2% (announces proposed public offering of common stock; terms not disclosed), BPAX -5.8% (discloses it entered into a privately-negotiated securities exchange agreement with a holder), TCAP -1.7% (announced the commencement of a public offering of 3.7 mln shares of common stock in an underwritten public offering), GM -0.8% (WSJ discusses how General Motors is preparing for losses out of its Opel Unit), PMFG -0.5% (announces follow-on offering of 2.6 mln shares of common stock).
Analyst comments: NOR -1% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), BP -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Societe Generale). -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AVID +16.6%, BWLD +16%, GUID +10.4%, SNCR +9.1%, CALX +8% (ticking higher), CERN +6.6%, GLUU +6.3%, RL +6%, MITK +5.3%, S +4.9%, TWX +4.7% (also announces new $4 bln stock buyback and raises dividend), VCLK +3.3%, VMED +3.3%, OPEN +3% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), STO +2.8%, AGU +2.8% (light volume), LIFE +2.3%, CVS +2.1%, LGND +1.9% (light volume).
Select financial related names showing strength: DB +2.2%, BCS +1.5%, BAC +1.4%, BBVA +1.4% (upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at WestLB), HBC +1.2%, UBS +1.2%.
A few metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +4.2% (reported earnings yesterday before the open), RIO +1.6%, SCCO +1.2%.
Other news: RMBS +12.6% (announced it has signed a patent license agreement with NVIDIA; Agreement covers a broad range of integrated circuit products), DSCO +12.5% ( signs manufacturing agreement for AFECTAIR), CEDC +7.9% (still checking), BLDP +7.1% (signs MOU With WEG Industries to provide fuel cells for clean energy in Brazil), RENN +4.6% (still checking), CSC +3.9% (appoints Mike Lawrie President and Chief Executive Officer), MDRX +2.4% (higher following CERN results), OCZ +1.5% (announced the upsizing and pricing of a common stock offering of 12 mln primary shares at a price of $9.00/share, reflecting an upsize from the previously announced offering of 10 mln primary shares), NOK +1.4% (plans changes to its manufacturing operations to increase efficiency in smartphone production), ARMH +1.1% (still checking), ABMD +1% (positive mention on MadMoney), TS +1% (still checking), POT +1% (ticking higher following AGU results). -
OpenTable downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
OpenTable upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray -
Rambus announced it has signed a patent license agreement with NVIDIA; Agreement covers a broad range of integrated circuit products
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OPEN, mis teatas täna oodatust paremad tulemused, on saanud lisaks kahele downgrade`le ka ühe upgrade`i Piper Jaffray`lt $ 64 hinnasihiga. Olgu ka öeldud, aktsia short interest on 54%.
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Zynga under pressure following cautious mention at Pacific Crest
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Douglas Kass:
I reshorted Spyders at around 135 as I move my hedge fund's net long exposure down towards 15% -
Eelneva AMZN jutu jätkuks:
Amazon.com confirms licensing agreement with Viacom that will allow Amazon Prime members to instantly stream TV shows -
Sakasamaa ekspordinumbrite kohta businessweekis artikkel, võib anda turule kerge neg. tooni. Data muidugi ammu väljas, kuid hetkel turu jaoks oluline, kus ja kuidas seda kajastatakse.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-08/german-exports-slump-as-crisis-saps-euro-area-growth-economy.html -
Rise of the Computers
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Feb 08, 2012 | 8:37 AM
"A computer once beat me at chess, but it was no match for me at kick boxing." --Emo Phillips
One of the most remarkable things about the market since the low in March 2009 is how often we have had straight-up, V-shaped moves. Just when you think it can't possibly happen again, another lopsided, straight-up market occurs.
In 2010 we had straight -up moves from February through April, and then another huge move from August 2010 to February 2011 when the second round of quantitative easing was announced. We had a couple of short-term moves in April 2011, June 2011 and then a big straight-up move from the lows in late September.
The current V-shaped move started in mid-December and, like all the others, is remarkable for how shallow the pullbacks have been along the way. So far in 2012, we haven't had a day with a loss greater than 0.6%. Any weakness has been bought immediately and aggressively.
This sort of action, more than anything else, has caused many traders to complain about the artificiality of the market. It just doesn't seem normal that we have this sort of action so often when it seldom occurred to this degree in the past, especially in view of all the macroeconomic challenges we've faced the last couple of years.
There are a number of reasons, such as the big supply of cheap money, quantitative easing and chronic pessimism, but probably the biggest driver of this action is the growth in computerized and algorithmic trading.
According to Wikipedia, computers drove about a third of all trading in 2006. In 2009, it was estimated that 73% of all U.S. equity-trading volume was driven by high-frequency trading.
I bring this up now because Tuesday we had a particularly good illustration of how algorithmic trading can drive the market.
Yesterday morning the market looked soft and even the dip-buyers were not jumping in too quickly. The market pulled back almost exactly to the lows of the prior two days, a key technical level. It then bounced and went straight up the rest of the day. There were no further pullbacks and the buying was steady and unrelenting, though volume was quite light.
It was obvious from the action that the algorithms were programmed to take advantage of the many market players looking for an overbought market to correct. The goal was to create a squeeze and generate momentum that would force bears and underinvested bulls to keep buying. Walking the market straight up is one strategy that makes big profits for high-frequency traders. As long as they have a trend to trade, they just keep on pushing as long as they can.
The problem for many individual traders is that this computerized action renders things like fundamentals and chart patterns irrelevant. In the past, those factors would create some back-and-forth action as emotions ebbed and flowed, but now it is all about manipulating the short-term action in order to extract millions of pennies with millions of trades.
Since there is nothing we can do to combat this action, the best thing we can do is be aware of it. The market acts the way it does not because of standard bullish factors, but because computers can make money by keeping the market moving in one direction.
If you recognize that, you realize you can't fight the trend the way you might have in the past. You have to respect the power of the computers and their inclination to drive overbought markets even higher. That is the position we are in now.
Sooner or later, the algorithms that generate this V-shaped action will subside and we'll see some reversals kick in, but the irony is that the more we try to anticipate that development, the more the algorithms will push to keep the trend going. It is why there are no real pullbacks.
We have some minor strength to start the day. Again, the key will be holding the early lows. If we do that, we seem to just keep on going and end up with strong closes. If we see an intraday reversal, the computers may back off and a correction can gain steam, but don't be too quick to count out underlying support. It is working too well to disappear too fast. -
Kass taas kuule raiskamas:
Gun to my head today is the day to be short. A chokey and extended market, "up" opening, Greek news out, weak EU stats all point to down. -
TVIX ja ERY võiks täna anda hea treidi, kuid stopid paika.
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AlariÜ
Kass taas kuule raiskamas:
Gun to my head today is the day to be short. A chokey and extended market, "up" opening, Greek news out, weak EU stats all point to down.
Nõnda aukliku peaga meest ei saa ju tõsiselt võtta :).
Kuigi turutunnetus on tal hea. -
To:harley
Ta viimasel ajal nati in front of the curve:D -
San Francisco Fed President Williams (voting member)- Fed needs to do more, best way is restart purchases of MBS: sees employment running at the high end of Fed range
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Reuters, citing sources, saying that ECB has not yet decided on whether it would contribute to Greek debt restructuring
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Täna alustas USA aktsiaturul kauplemist Caesars Enterteinment (CZR), mis on maailma suurim kasiinofirma käibe ja kasiinode arvu põhjal. Ühtlasi on see ka geograafiliselt kõige enam hajutatud USA kasiinofirma, omades kasiinosid 12-s osariigis ja 7 riigis. Enamus kasiinodest tegusteb USA-s ja UK-s peamiselt Ceasar, Harrah ja Horsehoe kaubamärgi all. Firma pole suutnud viimastel aastatel kasumlik olla, kuna käive on langenud ja ettevõttel on teenindada $ 19,6 miljardi suurune võlg.
IPO hinnaks kujunes $9 aktsia kohta ja hetkel kaupleb aktsia oma IPO hinnast 60% kõrgemal ehk $ 14,60 juures. -
CME Group: S&P cuts CME rating to AA- from AA
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Hartford Financial: Hearing downgraded at tier 1 firm
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Headlines from Troika draft crossing; Greece to pledge 20% cut to minimum wage; Greece pledges permanent spending cuts; will increase sales tax; will cut 150K public employees; Sees 2012 GDP decline of 5%, sees return to growth in 2013
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Kreeka GDP -5% 2012 oli kõige viimase revideeringu kõige mustem stsenaarium.
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Huvitav lugemine businessinsideris iPhone kohta:
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-crazy-phones-killing-the-iphone-in-japan-2012-2 -
Veel huvitavat lugemist:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/351461-if-you-think-this-is-a-bubble-you-re-out-of-touch -
Akamai Tech prelim $0.45 vs $0.40 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $324 mln vs $311.26 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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Groupon prelim ($0.02) including $0.07 tax, vs $0.03 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $506 mln vs $473.96 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Groupon sees Q1 revs $510-550 mln vs $501.12 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; income from ops $15-35 mln -
Cisco Systems prelim $0.47 vs $0.43 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $11.5 bln vs $11.23 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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Visa prelim $1.49 vs $1.45 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $2.55 bln vs $2.47 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; raises FY12 outlook
