Börsipäev 14. veebruar
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Stoxx600 ja S&P 500 indeksite 0,7%line tõus peegeldas investorite kergendust pärast kärpekava heakskiitu Kreeka parlamendi poolt, kuid nagu eilses börsipäevas sai välja toodud, siis protsess on jätkuvalt veel pooleli ning mõned täiendavad sammud tuleb läbida. Aasias on aga sentiment täna jäänud negatiivsemaks pärast seda kui Moody’s otsustas 9 Euroopa riigi reitinguid langetada, tõdedes põhjustena muuhulgas ebakindlust eurotsooni fiskaal- ja majandusreformide väljavaadete osas ning küsitavaid finantsvõimalusi kriisiga võitlemisel. Hispaania reiting langetati kahe pügala võrra A3 peale (väljavaade negatiivne), mis on pügala võrra madalam S&P ekvivalentsest reitingust. Portugali ja Itaalia reitinguid kärbiti ühe pügala võrra vastavalt Ba2 ja A2 peale, säilitades seejuures negatiivse väljavaate. Täiendavalt otsustati asetada Suurbritannia AAA reiting negatiivse väljavaate peale, nentides tõenäolist langetamist, kui riigi võlanäitajad järgmise kolme-nelja aasta jooksul ei parane.
Tänases makrokalendrist vääriks mainimist Suurbritannia jaanuarikuu inflatsiooni näit (kell 11.30), eurotsooni detsembri tööstustoodangu muutus (12.00), Saksamaa veebruari ZEW indeksid (12.00), USA jaanuari jaemüük (kell 15.30) ja detsembri ärivarude muutus (kell 17.00).
USA indeksite futuurid on kauplemas 0,3% miinuses, EUR/USD samuti kergelt pihta saamas (-0,36% @ 1,3139 USD). -
Pärast tänast Moody's reitingulangetamist ja Suurbritanniale negatiivse väljavaate omistamist on alles jäänud veel kaheksa riiki, mis omavad stabiilse väljavaatega AAA reitingut: Austraalia, Kanada, Taani, Saksamaa, Norra, Singapur, Rootsi ja Šveits.
UK väljavaate negatiivse peale langetamine ei ole samas UK võlakirjadele survet avaldamas: 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus pole hetkeseisuga muutunud ja kaupleb 2,123% juures. -
Suurbritannia inflatsioon on viimaste kuude jooksul hoogsalt alanenud - tendents, mida keskpank on juba mõnda aega oodanud. Jaanuari inflatsioon alanes ühe kuuga 0,5%, näidates aasta baasil küll veel 3,6%list kasvu. Tegemist on madalaima tasemega alates 2010.a novembrist ning jääb analüütikute ootusest siiski 0,1 protsendipunkti jagu kõrgemaks.
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Risto Sverdlik
Saksamaa ZEW indeksid tulid kõvasti üle ootuste: majandussentimendi indeks +5,4 vs oodatud -11,8 punkti (eelmisel kuul -21,6) ja hetkeolukorra indeks +40,3 vs oodatud +30,5 punkti (ja eelmisel kuul +28,4). Eurotsooni majandussentimendi indeks tõusis eelmise kuu -32,5 pealt -8,1 punktini.
EURUSD kenasti rallimas, kaubeldes päeva tippudes $1,3214 taseme juures.
Lisan omaltpoolt ka visuaalid, kuidas indeksid on viimasel ajal üldiselt liikunud
Jooksva olukorra hinnang
Ootuste indeks -
Lisaks reitinguagentuuridele valmistab Suurbritannia olukord muret ka Euroopa komisjonile:
The European Commission has put Britain on a "must do better list" along with 11 other EU countries including Spain, France and Italy.
The EC's conclusions include:
The high level of private debt is a concern also in a context of a weak public finance situation with high and increasing public debt.
While both the level of household debt and real house prices has been reduced, they still remain high which suggests that the unwinding of these imbalances has further to go where the speed of adjustment is an important aspect. -
Eurotsooni tööstustoodangu muutus kujunes detsembris negatiivseks, kukkudes aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes -2% vs oodatud -1,2%. Neljanda kvartali osas on juba ilmselt lepitud selle asjaoluga, et paljudes eurotsooni riikides jäi majanduskasv Q3ga võrreldes negatiivseks ning kohati pole ka tehniline retsessioon välistatud, kuid nagu ZEW indeksitest võib välja lugeda, siis lootusrikkalt vaadatakse just 2012 teise poolaasta suunas, mil nähakse aktiivsuse taastumist eriti just Saksamaal.
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Homme avalikustatakse mitmel pool Euroopas neljanda kvartali SKT muutused. Portugal on teinud täna otsa lahti, tõdedes, et riigi sisemajanduse kogutoodang alanes detsembris lõppenud neljandikus YoY -2,7% vs oodatud -2,8% (Q3 revideeriti -1,7% pealt -1,8%le).
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Ning siin ka pilt Kreeka SKT YoY hooajaliselt korrigeerimata muutusest
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Kui eile muutus Merrill Lynch osade alternatiivenergia sektori firmade suhtes positiivse(ma)ks, siis täna on Citi analüütikud väljas kurjakuulutava sõnumiga, et Saksamaa alternatiivenergia kärbe tuleb oodatust märksa suurem. Teatavasti on Saksamaa maailmas juhtiv riik paigaldatud PV-paneelide osas ja teiseks suurim tuuleenergia kasutaja peale USA-d ja Citi analüütikute prognoos, et konsensuse 10-20%-line ootus kärpe ulatuse osas võib kujuneda 20-35%-ks, kogub päikesenergia sektori pea kohale taas pilved.
Our work indicates the range of up-front cut is 20-35%, greater than current Street expectations expectations
of 10-20%. Based on our work, this would immediately reduce project IRR from high single digits to very low single digit percent. Following the up-front cut, we agree volume-based bi-monthly or quarterly cuts are likely. Also, some competitors have recently suggested a delay in implementation beyond April so a 4/1 date could also represent a negative surprise. In order to provide ample notice, this would likely need to be decided w/in the next 1-2wks. We think the odds of a cap are low but the compromise may be this larger up-front cut.
Prefer WFR, AEIS, TSL in US; Centrotherm in EUR on a relative basis – While this creates downside risk for all solars, we continue to prefer those with big US exposure like WFR or AEIS. Among China solars, we prefer TSL (although it is hard to argue it is without near-term risk) and prefer equipment players in EUR. We believe TSL already looking for thin film product as a hedge for the impact of US import tariffs on projects
currently slated for CQ2:12 – the only Chinese Tier-1 doing so, to our knowledge.
Analüütikud eelistavad pigem ettevõtteid, mis tegutsevad rohkem USA turul nagu WFR,AEIS ja TSL, kuid see ei tähenda, et nimetatud firmad riskivabad oleks. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: UCTT +15.4%, NSIT +12%, KORS +11%, RAX +9.4%, HIMX +8.9%, GNRC +7.8% (light volume), HMA +5.4%, MGIC +4.6%, LLNW +3.8%, TTM +3.3%, WPI +3.1%, CRL +2.7% (light volume), MMC +2% (light volume), GPRO +1.9%, RGC +0.8% (light volume).
A few shipping names trading modestly higher: PRGN +9.0%, DRYS +3.3%, FRO +2.6%, SBLK +2.5%.
Select China internet related names are trading higher: YOKU +5.9%, RENN +2.2%, BIDU +1.1%.
Other news: OXBT +19.8% (rebounding on light volume), MDAS +8% (still checking), CCMP +6% (declares special cash dividend of $15 per share, or ~$345 mln in total, after closing on secured credit facility ), ALU +2.7% (Alcatel-Lucent trading higher on reports related to potential deal with Sprint), PBTH +2.5% (announces 'positive' preclinical results from comparative study of its long-acting clotting factor VIIa), GNOM +0.9% (continued strength).
Analyst comments: GPS +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), MYL +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), KFT +0.7% (initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley), HFC +0.4% (added to Conviction Buy list at Goldman). -
January Retail Sales ex-auto +0.7% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to -0.5% from -0.2%
January Retail Sales +0.4% vs +0.8% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 0.0% from +0.1% -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ZBRA -9.3% (ticking lower), SGEN -5.1%, FOSL -4.5%, ZIP -3.3%, AVP -3% (light volume), LPS -2.3%, GT -1.6% (light volume), FIS -0.6% (increases annual dividend to $0.80 from $0.20 per share; authorizes additional stock repurchases up to $1 bln).
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: RIO -2.7%, BBL -1.3%, BHP -1.2%, HMY -1%, SLV -0.8%, GLD -0.5%.
Solar names are under pressure: YGE -2.9% (Yingli Green Energy and DuPont enter $100 mln strategic agreement), FSLR -2.4%, LDK -2.5%.
Other news: ALNY -4.8% (announces Proposed Public Offering of 7 mln shares common stock), RJF -2.6% (announces commencement of public offering of common stock), OSG -1.7% (Overseas Shipholding files $500 mln securities shelf offering).
Analyst comments: DHI -1.4% (downgraded to Fair Value from Buy at CRT Capital), ACI -1.2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), NLY -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie), BBBY -0.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup) -
Saksamaa Bundestag peab teatavasti 27. veebruaril Kreekale väljastatava laenupaketi vastu võtma. Parlamendi president Norbert Lammert on täna öelnud, et ta kahtleb Kreeka päästeplaani ajakavas.
The leader of the Germany Bundestag, Norbert Lammert, has expressed concern at plans for members of the German parliament to vote on Germany's contribution to a second bail-out for Greece by the end of February, FT Deutschland reports. Lammert says that this would not give MPs enough time to assess a complicated and politically sensitive decision.
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Risto, kas see võib tähendada, et Merkelit üritatakse siseriiklikult survestada?
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MedAssets trading over 15% higher premarket; Hearing M&A speculation as catalyst
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REGN kohta barronsis artikkel:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703786004577221251413117444.html?mod=BOL_hpp_oe -
The Challenge of a One-Direction Market
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Feb 14, 2012 | 8:33 AM
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
--Douglas Adams
Unless you are a buy-and-hold investor, navigating a market that moves in only one direction is much harder than it sounds. The whole point of trading is to take advantage of the normal ups and downs that tend to occur in order to produce superior returns. But in a market that goes up every day and has no real weakness, you will often cost yourself money by trying to anticipate pullbacks and weakness.
Sometimes buy-and-hold investing produces superior returns, and active traders will make timing errors in these markets. You can do well by catching aggressive trades and riding momentum, but it is not an environment where you can really outperform the indices.
I bring this up because market action like this can often cause traders to become less disciplined. You watch the buy-and-holders rack up great gains with little effort and start to wonder if maybe all this work is really worth it. Wouldn't it be easier to just load up and let the market run up endlessly?
But all it takes is one decent correction, and traders who have not stayed fully invested suddenly see their relative performance jump. Not giving back gains creates a huge benefit when the market gets rocky -- and you can be sure that sooner or later it will have its struggles once again. The great benefit of trading comes when the market is choppy and difficult ... and sooner or later it always becomes choppy and difficult again.
Navigating this market is quite a challenge for many traders. The momentum has been tepid at times but the underlying support has been more than impressive. Shorting has been a losing approach, but you have to be quite selective if you go long as well, because not everything is going up in the same manner as the indices.
One of the positives recently is that individual stock-picking is working much better. The market is much less correlated, as you can see from this chart from The Reformed Broker, and we aren't seeing the hypersensitivity to Europe and other macro news that we saw late in 2011. I'm hopeful that this will continue, which will help to take the sting out of a correction when one does finally occur.
I have to wonder how much longer this market can continue to hold up so well, but I'm not going to worry about it until the action actually starts to change. I'm going to keep on digging for new buys. When I can't find any long trades that are working, then I know that the correction is on -- regardless of how the indices may be acting.
We have very flat action this morning as the market digests some European sovereign debt downgrades. Other than that there isn't much news flow. I suspect that being an active trader may start to pay off better as this market finally undergoes some change in character -
winger
Risto, kas see võib tähendada, et Merkelit üritatakse siseriiklikult survestada?
Ei oska kommenteerida. Aga tore kui vähemalt üritatakse riigisiseselt teema üle arutada. -
Energy Conversion (ENER) Files Chapter 11; Seeks Sale of Businesses
Aktsiatega kauplemine hetkel peatatud. -
Headlines crossing that Greece PM says Eurgroup meeting will take place in Brussels tomorrow
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YPF Soc. Anonima drops to lows; pullback attributed to headlines regarding loss of potential partners for shale developments
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Yahoo!: Shares getting hit on All Things Digital tweet saying talks regarding sale of Alibaba have broken down
http://allthingsd.com/20120214/exclusive-yahoo-asia-deal-talks-off/ -
Vague headlines crossing that China and U.S. agree to enhhance macroeconomic cooperation to ensure global recovery
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ACI Worldwide: Hearing upgraded at boutique firm
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Headlines crossing that Pasok leader Papandreou has signed commitment to lenders on austerity, still awaiting signature of New Democracy leader Samaras, according to sources
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Tundub, et GNRC tahab siit $26 alt kerge bounce teha.
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LHC Group spikes to highs on heavy volume; strength attributed to LBO rumor
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Headlines crossing that sources say Samaras will deliver a letter of commitment to lenders tomorrow
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Apple CEO Cook, during GS conf, says co takes working conditions very seriously, top priority is to eliminate child labor, which is extremely rare in supply chain
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FIO - homme 43M share lockup expiration. Peaks kukkuma. Samas kui kõik seda teavad, siis mis?
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GNRC oli lahja:(
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Zynga prelim $0.05 vs $0.04 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $311 mln vs $303.83 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Zynga sees FY12 $0.24-0.28 vs $0.26 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
ymeramees
Mis sa Yahoost arvad, täna vastandlikud kommentaarid. Ise arvan, et tehing ikkagi tuleb. Mis sa arvad? -
Kas BVSN mitte ei saanud täna lockup läbi? Aga seal pole shorti võtta.
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Weight Watchers prelim $0.86 vs $0.87 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $401.3 mln vs $411.40 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Weight Watchers Announces Plan to Launch Self-Tender Offer for $720 mln of common stock and Related Stock Repurchase for Up To $1.5 Billion of its Common Stock
Weight Watchers sees FY12 $4.20-4.60 vs $4.57 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
stocker
ymeramees
Mis sa Yahoost arvad, täna vastandlikud kommentaarid. Ise arvan, et tehing ikkagi tuleb. Mis sa arvad?
:) Ei tea. Ei oska arvata, ei näe ka, et kuidagi panustamine kasulik oleks. -
ymeramees
FIO - homme 43M share lockup expiration. Peaks kukkuma. Samas kui kõik seda teavad, siis mis?
FIO - et lockup end oleks segasem, teeb täna räpina vabatahtlik analüüsimaja sellele ug. ei ole lihtsaid asju siin ilmas :) -
ymeramees
ymeramees
FIO - homme 43M share lockup expiration. Peaks kukkuma. Samas kui kõik seda teavad, siis mis?
FIO - et lockup end oleks segasem, teeb täna räpina vabatahtlik analüüsimaja sellele ug. ei ole lihtsaid asju siin ilmas :)
Oled lühike siis ve? -
Ei, keskmisest pikem.
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Krookus, meelde tuli. Sa ronisid midagi enne tulemusi tegema mu kõva häälega öeldud mõtte peale, oli vist RIMM? See FIO on lihtsalt üks segane seisukord, mida täna jälgida. Kallis stock, mis tegi 2012 guido kehva, lasti natuke õhku välja. Lisaks mingi konkurentsitaoline asi kostumas viimasel ajal. Lisaks 43M aktsia müügiks vabastus.
Samas konsensus short, eile GS konverentsil tegid endale pai, lisaks just täna väljailmuv ug analüütikult, kes jaanuaris mõtles, et võiks kah katma hakata. -
RIMM-i puhul oli tegemist tulemuste bet-iga ,mis on nii või teisiti loto, eriti selle ettevõttega.
Ootasin meeltesegaduses üllatust ,mida aga ei tulnud.
