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Börsipäev 15. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kui jätta Kreeka hetkeks mängust välja, siis eilne makrouudiste ning muude sündmuste pakett tekitas kahetisi tundeid. Ühest küljest langetas Moody’s üheksa Euroopa riigi reitinguid ning jättis mitmeid neist (sh Suurbritannia) negatiivse väljavaate peale ning õhtupoole avalikustatud USA jaanuarikuu jaemüük polnud samuti midagi kiita, jäädes 0,4%lise tõusuga oodatust poole võrra kesisemaks. Teisalt aga suutis Itaalia müüa 6 miljardi euro väärtuses võlakirju varasemast madalamate intresside juures ning Saksamaa ZEW küsitluse järgi olid analüütikud nii majanduse hetkeolukorda kui väljavaadet hinnates positiivsemaks muutunud.

    Paraku on aga turud jätkuvalt Kreekast tulevate uudiste võimuses, mida tõestas USA indeksite taastumine päeva lõpus, kui selgus, et George Papandreou on andnud allkirja jätkata valimistejärgselt võetud kohustuste täitmist ning Antonis Samaras pidavat seda tegema täna. Kuna viimane on aga välja öelnud, et tema eesmärgiks on peaministriks saades pealesurutud majandusreformide kava uuesti Kreekale soodsamatel tingimustel läbi rääkida, siis teatud küsitavusi Samarase täna antav kinnitus tekitab, kuid turud näivad seda hindavat positiivse uudisena, kui USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad poole protsendi jagu plussipoolel.

    S&P 500 indeksi viimase kolme päeva liikumine


    Mitmel pool Euroopas raporteeritakse täna neljanda kvartali sisemajanduse kogutoodangu muutused, kulmineerudes eurotsooni näitajaga kell 12.00. Kell 12.30 avalikustatakse Inglise keskpanga veebruari inflatsiooniraport, kell 15.30 USA Empire State töötleva tööstuse küsitlus, kell 16.15 USA jaanuari tööstustoodangu muutus ja kell 21.00 FOMC jaanuari kohtumise protokoll.
  • Saksamaa majandus kasvas neljandas kvartalis aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes 2,0% vs oodatud 1,9%. Kvartali baasil aga kujunes languseks -0,2%, oodatust samuti pisut parem (-0,3%).
  • Prantsusmaa puhul aga näitajad arvatust märksa paremad
  • FTs on täna huvitav artikkel, kus käsitletakse Kreeka võla restruktureerimist. Väidetavalt jagati eelmisel nädalal eurogrupile infokild, et edukaks PSIks peavad eurotsooni riigid turult saama 93,5 miljardit eurot kapitali, millest 30 miljardit läheks otse erainvestoritest võlakirjaomanikele meelitamaks neid tehingus osalema ning 23 miljardit eurot Kreeka pankade rekapitaliseerimiseks. Kuid antud dokumendi kohaselt ei kiida eurotsooni valitsused 93,5 miljardi tõstmist enne heaks, kui erainvestorid on restruktureerimiseks heakskiidu andnud ning protsess juba käib. New Yorgis asuv nõustamisfirma Lazard tõdes, et kui EFSF ei saa antud raha enne kokku, tekitab see täiendavat määramatust.

    “We would expect this uncertainty to reduce the chances that the offer succeeds,” the Lazard note reads. “Greece would, in effect, be asking creditors to commit to tender their [Greek bonds] and to block them for a period of as long as three weeks without having any assurance that Greece will be able to deliver the EFSF notes that it needs to deliver to close the exchange.”
  • Itaalia majandus on langenud kuus kuud: täna avaldatud IV kvartali SKT kasv tuli eelmise kvartaliga võrreldes -0,7% vs oodatud -0,6% ja aastasel baasil -0,5% vs oodatud -0,2%.

    Hollandi majandus kahenes eelmise aasta viimases kvartalis 0,7% (Q/Q), olles kolmandas kvartalis langenud 0,4%.
  • Eurotsooni majandus kasvas neljandas kvartalis 0,7% võrreldes 2010.a neljanda kvartaliga, mis vastas analüütikute ootustele. Kvartali baasil näidati aga -0,3% langust vs prognoositud -0,4% (kolmas kvartal revideeriti 0,2% pealt 0,1%le).
  • Morgan Stanley on teinud põguse läbilõike Prantsusmaa neljanda kvartali SKT-st, tõdedes et vastupidiselt konsensusele, kes ootas kvartali baasil langust, kujunes positiivseks katalüsaatoriks netoeksport, mis toetas majandust 0,7 protsendpunkti võrra. Samas on jooniselt näha, et ka kodumaine nõudlus jätkas kasvamist vaatamata vähenenud kindlustundele. Ühtlasi oli mõnevõrra üllatuslik ettevõtete investeeringute 1,4%line kasv (QoQ) pärast 0,1%list langust kolmandas kvartalis. Ettevaatavalt nendib MS, et jaanuarikuu indikaatorite kohaselt jäävad arengud majanduses lähiajal nõrgapoolseks ning täiendavalt mõjuvad kodumaisele tarbimisele rusuvalt valitsuse kokkuhoiumeetmed.
  • Tesla Motors (TSLA), mis eelmisel nädalal tõi esimest korda avalikkuse ette oma kauaoodatud Model X-i, on ühe nädalaga ja sealjuures ilma reklaamita saanud autole juba üle $ 40 miljoni ulatuva summa väärtuses eeltellimusi. Auto, mis on väidetavalt kiirem kui Porsche AG 911 ja ruumikam kui Audi Q7, müügihind peaks tulema $ 55000-75000 kanti ehk siis võib järeldada, et nädalaga on kogunenud huvilisi juba ca 600-le autole.
    Model X jõuab tootmisesse alles 2013. aasta lõpus ja firma kavatseb toota 10000-15000 autot aastas.
  • Diamond Foods (DMND) on jõudnud Procter&Gamble(PG)-ga kokkuleppele, et Pringles segmendi ostutehing vastastikusel kokkuleppel tühistatakse ja tehingu katkestamise tõttu trahvi ei rakendata.
    DMND aktsiaga on hetkel kauplemine peatatud.
  • Nelli Janson
    Tesla Motors (TSLA) ... kauaoodatud Model X-i ... müügihind peaks tulema $ 55000-75000 kanti ehk siis võib järeldada, et nädalaga on kogunenud huvilisi juba ca 600-le autole.

    Telsal on komme tuua hinnad post-tax rebate, mis korrigeerituna oleks $62500 - $82500. Tegelikult tulevad hinnad Model S suurusjärku ja tippmudeli koos koguvarustusega (laadija k.a.) peab arvestama $95000.

    Nädalaga $40 mln ulatuses on lai mõiste, sest Model X ettetellimine toimub nagu Model S puhul, kus saa teed teatud X summas ettemakse. Täpselt ei mäleta, et see võib olla $1000 - $5000 piires.
  • Nelli Janson
    Diamond Foods (DMND) on jõudnud Procter&Gamble(PG)-ga kokkuleppele, et Pringles segmendi ostutehing vastastikusel kokkuleppel tühistatakse ja tehingu katkestamise tõttu trahvi ei rakendata.
    DMND aktsiaga on hetkel kauplemine peatatud.


    See uudis peaks seletama, kuidas PG ja DMND vastastikune kokkulepe nii kergesti sündis:
    Kellogg Company Announces Agreement To Acquire Procter & Gamble's Pringles Business
  • Winger tänud täpsustamast, aga nii ehk teisiti tundub huvi olevat siiski üsna suur.
  • TSLA tulemused täna jah? Eile: Tesla may have seen its loss widen in 2011's final quarter. Bloomberg's estimate from 12 analysts was for a loss, excluding some items, of 63 cents a share.
  • Arvestades inimeste SUV armastust, siis üks väga kallis crossover ei tee liiga. ;)
    Ise jäin mõttesse, kuidas elektrooniliselt diff lukustust ja jõuülekande suurendamist lahendada. Praegu on need jah kombeks vastava vahekastiga lahendada. Aga kui mootoreid on mitu ja sünkro eest hoolitseb kontroller?
  • Jah, täna järelturul peaks TSLA oma kvartalitulemused teatama.
  • ZNGA - aasatalõpu seisuga 5,6M short interesti on kasvanud jaanuari lõpuks 21M peale. Veebruaris läks neeger hüppesse, nüüdseks ollakse seal ehk natuke närvilisemad. Ei tahaks torkida väga. Kuigi kolm dg-d siiani.

  • Euro on dollari suhtes teinud järsema liigutuse ning futuurid samuti allapoole tulnud meediasse imbunud kommentaaride tõttu, mille kohaselt plaanitakse lükata edasi osa või kogu Kreekale antavast finantsabist

    Futures pare gains in wake of headline that the eurozone finance official are consider proposal to delay Greek bailout... S&P futures drop ~4 pts and are now +4, DJ futures now +38
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PWAV -26.8%, (also downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), ACPW -20% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), VG -8.4% (light volume), ZNGA -7.9% (also downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays, downgraded to Underweight at Evercore), SAPE -6.3%, PEET -4.1% (light volume), RENN -4%, FTI -3.3%, QSFT -2.8%, WTW -1.7% (also announces plan to launch self-tender offer and related stock repurchase for up to $1.5 billion of its common stock, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush, downgraded to Hold at Auriga), ANF -1.5%.

    Other news: AMSC -4.7% (ticking lower, provides litigation update), FXCM -4.6% (reported retail customer trading volume of $298 bln in Jan 2012, 3% higher than Dec 2011 and 15% higher than Jan 2011).

    Analyst comments: DELL -0.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Sterne Agee), RAX -0.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), LMT -0.4% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GIVN +10.2%, CMCSA +6.9%, DF +6.3% (light volume), INWK +5.3% (light volume), EMKR +4.8% (thinly traded), ACAS +4.5%, DVN +3.6% (light volume), NRP +3.3% (light volume), TEVA +3.2% (also BioSante and Teva Pharma receive U.S. clearance from FDA to sell the drug), MET +2.6%, DPS +1.1%, (light volume).

    Financial related names showing strength: ING +4.8%, BCS +4.1%, RBS +3.2%, DB +2.9%, HBC +2.8%, MS +2.7%, CS +2.2%, C +1.5%, BAC +1.1%.

    A few LED related names are trading higher: AIXG +7.2%, CREE +4.6%, VECO +1.4%.

    Other news: BPAX +57.6% (BioSante and Teva Pharma receive U.S. clearance from FDA to sell the drug), BCRX +14.4% (announces 'promising' results from preclinical studies of BCX5191 for hepatitis C; BCX5191), LHCG +6% (engages in a process to review strategic alternatives), HIG +5.8% (Paulson & Co. files 13D and sends letter to Hartford Board of Directors), LGF +4.9% (positive mention on MadMoney), MGIC +4.2% (reported earnings yesterday before the open), K +4% (announces agreement to acquire Proctor & Gamble's (PG) Pringles business), TM +3.8% (still checking), LNKD +3.4% (higher this morning following reports the company is in talks to enter China), COF +3.2% (Fed approves purchase of ING; co also reported Jan credit card metrics), DMND +3.1% (issues statement regarding termination of Pringles Transaction says 'the mutual termination of our agreement and release of all associated liabilities was reached in the same spirit'), TSL +2.6% (Maverick Capital discloses 8.4% stake in 13G filing), DTV +2.3% (Berkshire Hathaway discloses ~20.3 mln share position in 13F filing, up from ~4.2 mln in Q3), ALNY +1.1% (prices 7.5 mln shares of common stock at $10.75), DVA +1% (Berkshire Hathaway discloses new ~2.7 mln position in 13F filing), IDCC +0.9% (Paulson & Co. discloses 6.48% stake in 13G filing), ARIA +0.7% (announces issuance of key U.S. patent on ponatinib), SNI +0.4% (ticking higher, Barron's discusses positive view on Scripps).

    Analyst comments: FIO +3.7% (upgraded to Buy at The Benchmark Company), SWY +0.7% (ticking higher, upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse).
  • February Empire Manufacturing 19.5 vs 14.0 Briefing.com consensus; January 13.5
  • VMED - short natuke. MS dg to UW. Teeb küll nägu, et kaupleb ka Londonis, aga põhiasi on Nasdaq.
    Peaks kukkuma. Mitte puruks, aga $25 näen mingi kell aski.
  • January Capacity Utilization 78.5% vs 78.6% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 78.6% from 78.1%
    January Industrial Production 0.0% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +1.0% from +0.4%
  • A Great Balancing Act
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Feb 15, 2012 | 9:01 AM EST | 1 Comment

    "So be sure when you step. Step with care and great tact and remember that Life's a Great Balancing Act. Just never forget to be dexterous and deft. And never mix up your right foot with your left."
    --Dr. Seuss

    Hope that Greece has finally put together an austerity deal, plus comments out of China that it's ready to assist Europe, have given the market a boost this morning. A late spike Tuesday took the bears by surprise, and now they are squeezed further as the bulls jump in aggressively.

    After a couple of weak days, the bears are hoping that this extremely aggressive dip-buying will stop working. It seems logical that the pattern of behavior slows, but market players have a tendency to stick with what works until they are burned several times. Dip-buying has not failed so far this year, and the bulls aren't going to give up until they are clobbered.

    What's impressive about the dip-buying action is that it has prevented the market from declining more than 1% for 30 straight days. According to SentimenTrader.com, this is the fourteenth-longest stretch since 1928.

    The big question for market players is to what degree you anticipate the pattern coming to an end. Doug Kass, who often focuses on calling tops and bottoms, is already positioning for a reversal. But trend-followers, such as Investor's Business Daily, are sticking with the momentum and aren't ready to back off, although we have had minor setbacks in the upside move.

    I'm trying to play the middle ground. I want to respect the trend and keep buying good stocks, but I want to be ready to hit the exit if negative signs develop. I'm finding fewer charts that I want to buy aggressively, which keeps me cautious. I see opportunities in oil and bulk shippers, but the vast majority of charts need to rest and reset. That keeps me cautious by default, although I have no inclination to try to call a top.

    The market is always a balancing act, but it becomes increasingly difficult when there is no dip for many weeks. It can't continue forever, but it certainly can last much longer than most people think is reasonable. Fighting it is extremely costly, but many traders are psychologically driven to play the guessing game of calling a top.

    There is no easy way to play it. The best we can do is to be aware of the dynamics at work and be ready to move. The market has cracks developing, but the viciousness of the late spike Tuesday makes it dangerous to be overly bearish. The lack of good technical setups forces higher cash holdings, but so many folks have been underinvested for so long that they give us a constant bid.

    We are jumping around on Greece news early on, which suggests volatile action today. The dip-buyers remain formidable, but the bears are gaining confidence. Be ready to move
  • Douglas Kass: I am now at my largest net short exposure of the year.
    Kass on oma negatiivsele visioonile truuks jäänud.
  • Fed's Fisher says QE 3 is a fantasy of Wall Street; says no need for further QE unless deflation or unexpected shock
  • LED aktsiad on päevasiseselt tugevad, kuna Piper Jaffray ütleb, et 2012. aastal kasvab LED tänavalampide tootmine Hiinas ligi 80%.Sektoris kauplevad aktsiad CREE, LEDS, VECO,AIGX.
  • Last Time Nasdaq 100 Rebalanced, Moving Apple from 20% to 12%, Caused AAPL Shares to Fall 7% a Week After -ZeroHedge
  • Vringo $VRNG entered into an agreement with Facebook, Inc. $FB relating to the use of Facetones mark and domain name. Shares halted.
  • Headlines crossing that Greek finance minster says that the debt swap will be announced Monday if Eurogroup approves bailout
  • ViewPoint Financial Group (VPFG) will replace SonoSite (SONO) in the S&P SmallCap 600 index after the close of trading today.
  • Skechers USA prelim ($1.18), may not compare to ($0.22) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $283.2 mln vs $324.34 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Zillow prelim $0.03 vs $0.00 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $19.9 mln vs $18.77 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Equinix prelim $0.35 vs $0.45 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $431 mln vs $429.97 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Equinix sees Q1 revs $443-446 mln vs $445.97 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Equinix sees FY12 revs over $1.87 bln vs $1.89 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Hyperdynamics Encounters Oil Shows in Sabu-1 Well Offshore Guinea-Conakry
    Co announced that the Hyperdynamics-operated Sabu-1 exploration well reached the planned total depth of 11,844 feet in a water depth of 2,329 feet, approx 90 miles southwest of Conakry, Guinea. The well encountered oil shows while drilling the targeted Upper Cretaceous section. Petrophysical analysis of electric logs indicates the presence of hydrocarbons in non-commercial concentrations in multiple layers of sandstones distributed throughout a 1,300-foot interval of Santonian to Turonian age sediments. The indicated oil saturation appears to be residual, suggesting that larger volumes of oil formerly were present in the reservoirs but subsequently leaked out or that these rocks lay on a hydrocarbon migration pathway. "The Sabu-1 results provide evidence that hydrocarbon generation has taken place in the basin and enhances the prospectivity of our 9,650-square-mile concession, one of the largest in West Africa. The oil and sandstone reservoirs encountered in the Santonian and Turonian age sediments in the well are particularly encouraging in the development of the turbidite fan plays further down dip on the concession."
  • Tesla Motors reports wider than expected loss, beats on revs; guides FY12 revs above consensus

    Read more: http://www.briefing.com/InPlayEq/InPlay/InPlay.htm#ixzz1mUHFMRo9
    Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.69 per share, $0.06 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($0.63); revenues rose 7.4% year/year to $39 mln vs the $37.44 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY12, sees FY12 revs of $550-560 mln, split about 10%/90% between the first and second halves of 2012, vs. $521.21 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. "2012 is really a year of two halves for Tesla. Before Model S is launched, we expect that our quarterly revenue in the first half of the year should be lower than Q4. This is based on a lower rate of Roadster sales due to its availability only in Europe and Asia, as well as the transitions in our powertrain activities from existing Daimler and Toyota projects to the new development program for Daimler and start of component sales for the Toyota RAV4 EV. After Model S deliveries begin, our revenues should increase significantly."

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