Börsipäev 21. veebruar
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Pärast ligi 13tunnilist miitingut jõudsid eurotsooni rahandusministrid täna öösel viimaks kokkuleppele laenata Kreekale 130 miljardit eurot, mille raames peab siis viimane suutma langetada oma riigivõla osakaalu SKTst 2020. aastaks 121%ni. Teatavasti on Kenneth Rogoff ja Carmen Reinhart oma põhjalikus finantskriiside uuringus „This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly“ jõudnud järeldusele, et teatud eranditega võib jätkusuutlikuks võlakoorma tasemaks lugeda 90%, millest kõrgem määr hakkab vähendama majanduskasvu väljavaateid ning ohustab riigi võla teenindamist. Juba see peaks panema mõtlema, kui väga parem Kreeka seis selliste prognooside juures saab kaheksa aasta pärast väga olla.
Kokkulepe põhineb troika analüüsi baasstsenaariumil, mille kohaselt oodatakse tänavu Kreeka majandusele 4,3%list langust, 0%list kasvu tuleval aastal ning sealt edasi 2,3%list ja 2,9%list kasvu, mis ma julgen pakkuda on suhteliselt optimistlikud võttes arvesse massiivseid eesseisvaid kärpemeetmeid. Siinkohal soovitaks lugeda seda troika raportit, mis on täies mahus kättesaadav Zerohedgi vahendusel. Seal tõdetakse, et Kreeka puhul on õhus mitmeid riske, mis ähvardaksid muuta võlakoorma vähendamise kurssi ning tingiksid 2020. aastaks hoopis 160%lise võlakoorma SKT-st. Väike näide: If Greece’s budget surplus (not counting debt payments) gets “stuck” at 2.5 per cent, “then debt would be on an ever-increasing trajectory”.
Pikalt oodatud uudis pole Aasia sessiooni jooksul erilisi emotsioone tekitanud, kui Nikkei sulgus -0,23% punases ja Shanghai Composite kaupleb +0,3% kõrgemal. USA indeksite futuurid hoiavad aga eilset +0,5%list tõusu. Euro on aga leidmas jätkuvat tuge ning liigub vaikselt 1,3300 dollarile lähemale.
Makrouudiste pool jääb täna suhteliselt kesiseks, mis lubab seedida Kreeka laenupaketti ning arutada sellejärgset positsiooni võla restruktureerimise kokkuleppe saavutamisel. -
Kuidas seda 130 miljardit eurot kulutatakse....(Reuters)
The vast majority of the funds in the 130-billion-euro program will be used to finance the bond swap and ensure Greece's banking system remains stable; some 30 billion euros will go to "sweeteners" to get the private sector to sign up to the swap, 23 billion will go to recapitalize Greek banks.
A further 35 billion or so will allow Greece to finance the buying back of the bonds. Next to nothing will go directly to help the Greek economy. -
... ja EUR on juba kogu tõusu käest andnud
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Et keegi ennast Kreeka kokkuleppe taustal liiga hästi tundma ei hakkaks, toob Roubini kõik maa peale tagasi ning tuletab meelde ohud, mis maailmamajandust endiselt ähvardavad.
“First, the eurozone is in deep recession, especially in the periphery, but now also in the core economies, as the latest data show an output contraction in Germany and France.
…Second, there is now evidence of weakening performance in China and the rest of Asia. In China, the economic slowdown underway is unmistakable. Export growth is down sharply, turning negative vis-à-vis the eurozone’s periphery. Import growth, a sign of future exports, has also fallen.
…Third, while US data have been surprisingly encouraging, America’s growth momentum appears to be peaking. Fiscal tightening will escalate in 2012 and 2013, contributing to a slowdown, as will the expiration of tax benefits that boosted capital spending in 2011.
…Finally, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, owing to the possibility of an Israeli military response to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. While the risk of armed conflict remains low, the current war of words is escalating, as is the covert war in which Israel and the US -
Just alles läks Roubini pikaks. Nüüd on tal igal juhul õigus. Whaddaman!
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RGEN +6.9% (thinly traded), COG +6.2%, BYD +4.6%, HD +3.4%, SWC +2.4% (light volume), M +1.2%, GLNG +0.6%.
M&A news: CHG +10.6% (CH Energy to be acquired by Fortis Inc. in agreement valued at $1.5 billion or $65/share), ASIA +2.7% (ticking higher on reports suggesting potential M&A).
Select financial related names showing strength: IRE +4.2%, CS +3%, CS +3%, STD +1.7%, RBS +1.7%, BAC +0.7%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +2.7%, BBL +2.5%, RIO +2.4%, BHP +2%, SLV +1.6%, GOLD +1.4%, VALE +1.1%, GLD +1%.
Solar names are ticking higher: STP +5.5%, JASO +3.5%, FSLR +1.9%, JKS +1.6%.
Other news: CORT +63.9% (receives FDA approval of Korlym), THLD +28% (provides positive Phase 2b clinical trial results of TH-302 in patients with pancreatic cancer), CTIC +11.1% (continued strength), STM +7.9% (announces CFO Carlo Ferro assigned to ST-Ericsson as COO), WYNN +6.5% (concludes investigation of Kazuo Okada following report detailing violations of U.S. anti-corruption laws; Redeems Okada's 20% stake and requests resignation), IMAX +5.3% (issued statement on WTO agreement with China), ZNGA +3.3% (still checking), LOW +3.1% (trading higher with HD), TS +1.7% and NOK +1.3% (still checking for anything specific).
Analyst comments: FRO +4% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at FBR Capital), LIFE +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), DANG +1.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WFT -10.1%, CTRP -8.9% (also downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James, downgraded to Sell at Brean Murray), CIEN -4.1%, WMT -2.7%, MDT -2.4%, FMS -1.9%.
Other news: GTXI -33.6% (announces FDA has issued a clinical hold on clinical trials evaluating Cepesaris for the treatment of prostate cancer), RIG -6.1% (expects Q4 results to include a non-cash charge related to the impairment of a substantial portion of the goodwill associated with its contract drilling services reporting unit).
Analyst comments: KLAC -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan), RAX -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen), TOT -0.9% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley ), NSC -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan). -
AsiaInfo ticking higher on reports suggesting potential M&A
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/21/us-asiainfo-idUSTRE81K0NO20120221 -
Nädalavahetusel teatas Hiina, et riik on otsustanud muutuda leebemaks USA (Hollywood) filmikunsti suhtes ja tõstab lubatud USA filmide kvooti Hiinas.
In general the new rules would allow more Hollywood content (from 20 films to 34 (adding 14 so-called ‘enhanced’ films in 3D/IMAX )), higher film rental splits to Hollywood (from 15% to 25%), increase distribution choices for foreign film owners and increase growth of the China BO.
Uudis on oluline kogu USA filmitööstuse jaoks, aga oma kasutegur on siin kahtlemata sees ka IMAX Corporation (IMAX)-i jaoks.
Canaccordi analüütikud kommenteerivad järgmiselt:
Chinese market is particularly important to IMAX as it is the second biggest and the fastest growing. IMAX has 217 theatres either installed or in backlog in China. We believe at least 85 of these are currently installed. This compares with a total of approximately 300 in the US. Overtime China can surpass the US. Thus, if the DMR royalty rate nearly doubles in China it is very meaningful to the business model.
Hiina on IMAX-i jaoks suuruselt teine ja kõige kiiremini kasvav turg ja analüütikute hinnangul kasvab Hiina turg ka firma koduturust tulevikus suuremaks ja antud uudis on firma jaoks väga positiivne.
Canaccordil on IMAX-le Osta soovitus koos $ 32 hinnasihiga.
Piper Jaffray analüütikud on samuti seisukohal, et IMAX-i arengule Hiinas tuleb muutus väga kasuks.
We see IMAX as the most direct beneficiary of the proposed rule changes. The fact that IMAX receives specific mention points to the strength of relationship between IMAX and China. The company has spent roughly 15 years in that market and the current deal
suggests it is bearing fruit. Remember one of the biggest issues with IMAX expansion in China was that it was expanding in a high growth region but with relatively low returns.
IMAX on tegutsenud Hiina turul juba 15 aastat ja nüüd hakkab tehtud töö lõpuks ka vilja kandma, sest alguses oli firma laienemisel Hiinas kõige suuremaks probleemiks just väike tulu.
In addition we see more IMAX films coming. China is allowing 14 more films per year if they are in IMAX or 3D format. Clearly the bias is upward here. The new rules encourage studios to explore more films in IMAX as a way to navigate China restrictions.
An IMAX version is now a ticket to enter the China market. In addition, we think the deal likely encourages local Chinese film makers to step up their quality as well to compete. So expect more opportunities for IMAX to DMR local content. We don’t suspect this is a major gating
point at present, but we think this could add another couple of local DMR titles per year in China over time.
IMAX on tegutsenud Hiina turul juba 15 aastat ja nüüd hakkab tehtud töö lõpuks ka vilja kandma, sest alguses oli firma laienemisel Hiinas kõige suuremaks probleemiks just väike tulu. Igal juhul sillutab antud uudis teed positiivsetele muutustele ka edaspidi.
Hiina on kahtlemata oluline turg IMAX-i jaoks ja positiivne katalüsaator ka aktsiahinnale. Kauplemise seisukohast võib IMAX natuke keeruliseks osutuda, sest aktsia kaupleb üsna madala käibega ja seetõttu võidakse aktsia eelturul liialt kõrgele osta.
Eelturul kaupleb aktsia 5,2% plusspoolel, $ 25 taseme juures. -
RLD võiks samuti täna huviorbiidis olla.
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Jahutame veidi Apple Inc. hoogu:
FT reviews news that a Court in Southern China told big retailer to stop selling Apple (AAPL) iPads in China.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/19f5077e-5bd2-11e1-841c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1n1L0iIXc -
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Dip Buyers vs. Sell-the-News Crowd
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Feb 21, 2012 | 8:57 AM
Never assume the obvious is true.
--William Safire
The market has rallied dozens of times in the past several months on rumors that a deal to bail out Greece was likely to occur at any time. An agreement was finally reached this morning and now we have to wonder if a sell-the-news reaction to this news is too obvious.
The Greece situation is particularly ripe for some selling since everyone seems to believe that Greece will eventually default anyway. Greece bought some time and says it will change, but it is still a mess. You'd have to be real Pollyanna to think that this story is over and that Greece will now return to health.
If the market hadn't been running straight up for two months and if sentiment wasn't so complacent then perhaps the specter of a sell-the-news reaction wouldn't be so great. The problem is that we already have folks talking about how the DJIA is going to be cruising to the 13,000 level with barely a pause.
Of course, looking for reasons why this market should stop going up has been a loser for a while now. It is very easy to make all sorts of bearish arguments, both technically and fundamentally. Higher oil prices, thin volume, a tepid earnings season, continued problems in Europe and so on and so forth. You can sound quite erudite and insightful while forming an attack on the health of this market but it isn't making any money.
The irony is that the more that we seem to anticipate a market top the more stubborn the market seems to be in refusing to turn down. This recent rally has been marked by a high level of underinvested bulls and overly anticipatory bears who have been consistently wrong. Instead of pullbacks we keep running and these folks keep feeding the beast which holds it up.
Even though my approach to the market is to stick with the trend as long as I possibly can, it is very hard to fight the temptation to anticipate a top. You can't help but wonder when the inevitable pullback is going to occur. We all know that sooner or later we will correct and no one wants to be caught, but trying to time that event can cost you far more in lost profits than it does in avoided losses if your timing is off by even a little.
One thing we need to watch closely at this point is the ability of the market to rally further on good news. When good news, like the Greece deal, no longer serves as a positive market catalyst then we need to raise our defenses. That doesn't mean turning into a growling grizzly, but to watch to see if conditions are changing.
There have been a few cracks in the market foundation lately, but they haven't mattered and there seems to be an almost automatic response by dip buyers to any and all weakness. Those dip buyers seem happy and confident to continue doing what has worked so well and there is little edge in fighting them until their attitude changes.
We have a mixed open on the way and the bears are going to be pushing hard to generate a sell-the-news reaction to Greece. It's a good setup, but maybe too good and I don't think it is going to be as easy as the bears might hope.
Buckle up and adjust your trading goggles. It should be a good battle. -
Huvitav kas täna lükatakse THLD market cap üle 300 mio?
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MetroPCS sees quick pop as T for PCS takeover rumor makes the rounds
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Kass-i sulest 5 minutit tagasi:
I am cutting all my long positions across-the-board now -
Netflix $NFLX Shares Sink as WSJ Says Comcast $CMCSA to Launch Competitor
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AlariÜ
Huvitav kas täna lükatakse THLD market cap üle 300 mio?
Samas on karta, et THLD tipp sinnakanti ka jääb kus ta täna treidib. Lähima aja catalystid on nüüd otsas, edasi tuleb oodata ära faas 3 uuringu tulemused, mis saabuvad 12-18-24 kuu pärast. Elu tuleb aktsiasse tagasi ehk kuu jagu enne faas 3 tulemusi, sinnani hakkab kõige suurema tõenäosusega toimuma vaikne alla tiksumine, mida aeg-ajalt elavdavad analüütikute callid ;) -
IMAX pakkus täna avanemisel täitsa korraliku põrke. Aktsia avanes $ 24,75 pealt ja liikus peale avanemist kiirelt $ 26 taseme alla. Nüüd on aktsia oma tippudest alla uuesti tulnud ja kaupleb $ 25,25 kandis, 6,2% plusspoolel.
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Reuters reporting US State Department asked view on Arming Syrian Rebels... says political solution ideal, but 'we may have to consider additional measures'
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Comcast confirms it has launched New Streaming Video Service
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Comcast voovideo teenus oleks ainult USA põhine? Sellist asja Euroopa jaoks ei ole planeeritud?
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winger
Comcast voovideo teenus oleks ainult USA põhine? Sellist asja Euroopa jaoks ei ole planeeritud?
loomulikult mitte. Sina vaata telekast 33. korda Politseiakadeemiat ja kui see sulle ei meeldi, siis tuleme ACTAga ning hindame su varad kiirmüügi hinnaga üle. -
Agria subsidiary PGG Wrightson reports 55% increase in operating earnings
Co announced that its New Zealand listed subsidiary, PGG Wrightson Limited further improved its operating performance, reporting a 55% increase in EBITDA for the six months to 31 December 2011 of NZ$22.0 mln vs NZ$14.2 mln prior year. Revenue was NZ$693.8 mln NZ$616.9 mln year ago. -
US Natural Gas ETF: Note UNG is scheduled to undergo a reverse split with a 4:1 ratio effective at the open tomorrow
