Börsipäev 20. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kui Sotxx 600 tegi väikese hingetõmbe pausi ning sulgus pärast viit järjestikust tõusupäeva 0,1% punases, siis S&P 500 suutis finants- ja tehnoloogiasektori abil pressida 0,4% jagu kõrgemale pärast selle aasta suurima tõusuga nädalat. Sarnase trendiga kaubeldi ka USA valitsuse võlakirjaturgudel, kus 10a võla yield on nüüd viimase viie sessiooniga kerkinud 35 baaspunkti võrra. FEDi liikmetest kõnelesid eile NY FEDi president Dudley ja Dallas FEDi president Fisher. Esimene nentis, et QE3 osas pole veel midagi otsustatud ning kõik sõltub sellest, kuidas majandus edasi areneb. Fisher aga kummutas igasuguse lootuse uuest rahatrükist, kuna tema arvates on turgudel piisavalt likviidsust ja steriliseeritud võlakirjade ostuprogrammi idee, mille WSJ lauale pani, olevat samuti „nonsense“.
USA valitsuse 10a võlakirja yield
Tulles tänase makrokalendri juurde, siis mainimist vääriksid kell 11.30 avalikustatav Suurbritannia veebruari inflatsiooni näit ning kell 14.30 USAs alustatud uute majade ehituste arv (veebruar). Enne turgu on oma majandustulemused avalikustamas Tiffany, kes oodatust nõrgema pühademüügi tõttu jaanuaris prognoose allapoole tõi.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel nullis, Euroopa on avanemas hetkeinfo kohaselt 0,1% madalamal. -
Credit Suisse S&P 500 aastalõpu target on tänasest 4,3% kõrgemal ning aktsiaturgude suhtes jäädakse 9 põhjusel endiselt optimistlikuks
(1) Bond yields could rise further… this might help equities
(2) The macro environment is supportive:
-Economic momentum indicators suggests global and US growth is still well above consensus
-The breadth of the US recovery is now impressive: investment; housing; employment; the
process of consumer deleveraging in the US is quite advanced; inventories are low and bank
loan growth has returned
-China easing: half of GDP is coming from emerging markets
-Europe: muddling along but mutualisation is advancing
(3) The dovishnessof central banks and the synchronised QE as the end game
(4) Rising global excess liquidity is consistent with c10% re-rating
(6) Valuations relative to bonds are still attractive
(7) Equities remain the hedge if , as we expect, long term inflation expectations continue to rise.
(8) Positioning still cautious relative to optimistic sentiment
(9) Earnings: upgrades continue, global revisions just turned positive” -
ekathimerini kirjutab, et Kreeka logiseva maksukogumise süsteemi tõttu on käibemaksu laekumine riigieelarvesse kahanenud võrreldes 2008.a 2,3 miljardi euro võrra. Probleemi võimendab omakorda maksudest kõrvalehoidmise kasv. Kui maksude kogumise tase oleks võrdne OECD riikide keskmise näitajaga, oleksid tulud tervelt 9,8 miljardi võrra suuremad
Greece would have had additional revenues of 9.8 billion euros last year had it matched the average level of value-added tax takings among member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a report by the governor of the Bank of Greece, Giorgos Provopoulos, suggested on Monday. -
ilma kommentaarideta
A 70-year-old pensioner who stormed into a tax office in the northern Athens suburb of Aghia Paraskevi on Monday morning and fired a hunting rifle in the air several times had reportedly seen his property in the Peloponnese confiscated over an unpaid tax bill of 36,000 euros.
The pensioner, who had been dressed in army fatigues, gave himself up within an hour to police who subsequently conducted a search on the bag he had with him. It contained four homemade explosive devices comprising gas canisters, three Molotov cocktail bombs and a homemade hand grenade. Link -
Hingeldav pensionär vajub taluuksest sisse - vanamammi, sea valmis, kohe on fritsud kohal!
Vanem naisterahvas imestusest käsi kokku lüües - kulla mees, sõda ammu läbi!
Pensionär - ära jama, mammi, lasin just kaks rongi koosseisu õhku! -
Turnarund tuesday? Euroopa 600 ettevõtte liikumist kajastav Stoxx 600 indeks tänaseks langust kogunud -0,9% ning USA futuuridki eelturul oluliselt punasemad võrreldes siin varasemate päevadega (-0,5%)
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Suurbritannia veebruari inflatsioon YoY 3,4% vs oodatud 3,3% (jaanuaris 3,6%). Tuuminflatsioon 2,4% vs oodatud 2,3% (jaanuaris 2,6%).
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TIF jääb neljanda kvartali EPSi osas küll veidi alla, kuid prognoosid konsensusega võrreldes pisut paremad. Juhtkonna sõnul peaks kasumikasv tulema just aasta teisest poolest.
Tiffany & Co prelim $1.39 vs $1.42 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.19 bln vs $1.19 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Tiffany & Co sees FY13 EPS of $3.95-4.05 vs $3.93 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sales +10% in USD
"While it is obviously still quite early in this new fiscal year, we are pleased that worldwide sales growth is tracking in line with our internal expectations." -
Piper Jaffray on täna väljas positiivsete kommentaaridega GT AdvancedTechnologies (GTAT) kohta.
Analüütikud kinnitavad oma Osta soovitust koos $ 23 hinnasihiga.
We are reiterating our OW rating on GTAT following discussions with management and recent industry checks. Our LED industry checks suggest utilization rates for leading Taiwanese LED chip makers have risen to the 80-100% level, from as low as 50% in 2H11, given a pickup in LED demand for both backlighting and general lighting. Furthermore, our checks revealed potential yield issues with competing sapphire equipment which could be a positive for GTAT. We remain confident in our above consensus estimates as we believe LED shipments largely remain on track given improving LED/Sapphire industry fundamentals. We believe valuation remains compelling especially given that GTAT trades at significant discount to other LED players despite its $1b sapphire backlog. Reiterate Overweight.
Analüütikud on muutunud LED sektori osas positiivseks ning küsitlused näitavad, et nõudlus on jõuliselt kasvavamas. Lisaks kaupleb GTAT võrreldes teiste LED sektori aktsiatega madalamal valuatsioonil, vaatamata firma $ 1 miljardi suurusele tellimusteraamatule.
Checks suggest some competing sapphire equipment facing potential yield issues. Our understanding is that equipment from a key GTAT competitor has potentially struggled with yield issues. We believe that if these struggles persist, it could open a door for GTAT to gain share, given GTAT’s ASF furnaces are in
commercial production at major customers, HTOT, Sornid and OCI.
Lisaks eelnevale on analüütikutele teada info, et osad GTAT konkurendid on hädas tootmisega, mis annab GTAT-le potentsiaalse võimaluse turgu võita.
Investors too focused on solar, missing improving LED fundamentals. GTAT has likely been held back as investor sentiment has focused too heavily on the solar industry, with too little emphasis on Sapphire
Lisaks eelnevale on analüütikutele teada info, et osad GTAT konkurendid on hädas tootmisega, mis annab GTAT-le potentsiaalse võimaluse turgu võita.
Analüütikute arvates on investorid siiani liialt keskendunud GTAT-i puhul päikeseenergia segmendile ning jätnud täiesti tähelepanuta LED-i fundamentaalsed näitajada, mis on liikumas paremuse suunas.
Antud juhul pole tegemist upgradega,mistõttu võib tänane call ilma turu toetuseta ehk liiga nõrgaks jääda. Samas on mitmed analüüsimajad viimasel ajal muutnud oma vaateid LED sektorile positiivsemaks, mis tõenäoliselt on pannud turuosalisi otsima häid investeerimisvõimalusi antud sektoris. Igal juhul tasub jälgimist ka pikemas perspektiivis. -
February Building Permits 717K vs 695K Briefing.com consensus; Prior 682K
February Housing Starts 698K vs 705K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 706K from 699K -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ADBE -4%, DB -1.4% (releases 2011 annual report; confirms growth in profits of EUR4.33 bln; Board still proposing EUR0.75 cash div).
A few financial related names showing weakness: HBC -2.3%, ING -2.3%, BCS -1.8%.
Metals/mining stocks trading lower: BBL -2.8%, BHP -2.7%, HMY -2.1%, CLF -2%, SLV -1.8%, GOLD -1.6%, GLD -1%, GDX -0.8%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -2.4%, E -2.1%, STO -1.8%, TOT -1.8%, CHK -1.4%, BP -1.2%, RDS.A -0.8%.
Other news: DHT -31.8% (disclosed terms of a $72.5 million backstopped equity offering and a $7.5 million concurrent private placement), TRGT -12.3% (Targacept and AstraZeneca announce remaining TC-5214 Phase 3 efficacy studies do not meet primary endpoint; regulatory filing will not be pursued), FRO -7% (still checking), ARGN -4.4% (rices public offering of 4.6 mln shares of common stock at $15.25/share), AIXG -4.2% (still checking), RGP -4.1% (announces public offering of 11 mln shares of common units), ASTM -2% (files to sell 4,525,978 share of common stock), ANR -1.8% (announces retirement of Michael J. Quillen as Chairman and Director), DIS -1% (Walt Disney announced it is expecting a $200 mln loss from 'John Carter'), AMZN -0.9% (Amazon.com to acquire Kiva Systems for approx. $775 mln in cash).
Analyst comments: FRO -4.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), DPZ -1.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), CA -1.4% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital). -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GMAN +11.1%, KORS +4.6%, FMCN +4.5%, TIF +3%, JEF +2.3% (ticking higher), DSW +1.2%, WMB +1.1% (announces new 2012-14 guidance, accelerates planned dividend increase).
Other news: BPAX +13.7% (announces Pill-Plus data presentation: improvements reported in sexual desire, arousal, responsiveness, and activity), PSTI +7% (thinly traded, issues quarterly update; says it plans to initiate a Phase II dose escalation trial using our PLX cells in muscle injury), TAT +6.3% (Signs Agreement With Shell Regarding Sivas Basin Exploration Activities), VOD +1.9% (trading modestly higher following positive court ruling), LGF +1.8% (continued strength, BusinessWeek reviews record box office results for Lion's Gate 'Hunger Games', which should produce over $270 mln in sales; also initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan), BAC +1% (rebounding following reports that the co said it is not planning offering), ANF +0.9% (ticking higher following story suggesting potential M&A).
Analyst comments: AGU +0.6% (initiated with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray), HOG +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital). -
Briefingu kokkuvõte mõnendest olulisematest callidest täna
Upgrades;
Adobe Systems (ADBE) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital
Downgrades:
Dole Food (DOLE) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Kinder Morgan (KMI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Frontline (FRO) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Veeco Instruments (VECO) downgraded to Sell from Underperform at Credit Agricole
Miscellaneous:
CF Industries (CF) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray; tgt $230 -
VECO calli on täna ka Notable Calls blogipidaja välja toonud:
$VECO - CLSA cuts to SELL, lowers PT to $26 - says stk up 60% YTD on false hope of a MOCVD recovery.
CLSA's Heller say other analysts calling for a V-shaped recovery n-t have been looking at the wrong data-points.
Relevant metric for MOCVD suppliers is epi utilization, not utilization at LED packagers or LCD panel makers
My take: This is certainly intg. Lots of fast money types in VECO after the u/g's. Should get hurt. Below $31 at some point today? -
Siit leiab hea kokkuvõtte olulisemate riikide stiimulprogrammidest.
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Nagu karta oligi jäi GTAT call täna liiga nõrgaks ja aktsia pole suutnud täna plusspoolele jõudagi. Aktsia avanes $ 8,20 pealt ja kukkus peale avanemist $ 8,05 juurde, kust on küll päeva jooksul ülepoole liikunud, kaubeldes hetkel $ 8,19 juures, 0,6% miinuspoolel.
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Vaatamata kallinenud kütusele kavatseb keskmine ameeriklane hiljuti läbi viidud küsitluse põhjal lihavõttepühade ajal kulutada rohkem kui tavaliselt. NRF (National Retail Federation) prognoosib, et keskmine täiskasvanud ameeriklane plaanib varsti saabuval ülestõusmispüha ajal osta $ 145,28 eest kaupa, mida on 11% rohkem kui möödunud aastal.
Allikas: Businessinsider
Siin on ka eraldi jaotus, mida kavatsetakse osta:
Below, the breakdown of some of the 2012 expected increases against 2011 spending.
Candy: $20.35, up from $18.55
Clothing: $26.11, up from $21.51
Easter Meal: $44.34, up from $40.05 -
Bernanke hakkab kohe kõne pidama, otseülekandes saab vaadata siit. Kõne pealkiri "Origins and Mission of the Federal Reserve".
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USGS confirms earthquake of 7.9 magnitude near Guerrero, Mexico
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Erko Rebane
USGS confirms earthquake of 7.9 magnitude near Guerrero, Mexico
Isegi turg sai sellest vägeva tõuke :)
