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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 30. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Investorid olid eile motiveeritud jätkama kasumivõttu, kui ühest küljest peegeldasid Euroopa perifeeriariikide võlakirjade intresside tõus uuesti kasvama hakanud muret riikide saatuse pärast ning teisest küljest ei olnud ka makro poolel midagi, mis tähelepanu Itaalialt või Hispaanialt eemaldaks. Näiteks USA eilne töötuabiraha taotluste statistika üllatas analüütikuid ebameeldiva andmerea korrigeerimisega, kui üle-eelmise nädala numbreid revideeriti 16K võrra ülespoole 364K peale ning möödunud nädal tõi vaid languse 359K taotlusele võrreldes oodatud 350K. Kansas City Fedi töötleva tööstuse indeks peegeldas sama trendi nagu varasemalt avaldatud Dallase ja Richmondi küsitlused, valmistades sellega pettumuse analüütikute konsensusele, mille kohaselt prognoositi näitaja samaks jäämist 13 punktile (tegelik näit 9 punkti).

    Kansas City Fed indeks


    Kuigi makro poolel oleme ootustele allajäämist näinud juba mõnda aega, siis turud on seda hakanud märtsi teisest poolest oluliselt tõsisemalt võtma. Stoxx 600 sulgus eile näiteks märtsi tippudest -4,2% madalamal, kuid kohe lõppeva esimese kvartali 6,6%lise tootluse üle ei ole kindlasti põhjust nurisemiseks. Ka USA turgudel on viimasel ajal tajuda selgelt suuremat närvilisust, kuigi päeva lõpu muutuseid vaadates jääb oluliselt parem pilt võrreldes sellega, mis tegelikult sessiooni jooksul toimub. Eilne börsipäev oli heaks näiteks, kui taaskord ligi protsendi jagu miinuses olnud turg suudeti sulgumiseks sisuliselt nulli tagasi osta. Window dressingul kipub kvartali lõpus ja alguses olema tuntav mõju, mistõttu ei pruugi hinnaliikumised peegeldada tegelikku turusentimenti. Aga S&P 500 on kvartali lõikes osutunud erinevate globaalsete tõmbetuulte suhtes selgelt vastupidavamaks näidates üks päev enne kvartali lõppu kolme kuu tootluseks eurodes 8,4% ehk annualiseeritult 38%.

    Liikudes sujuvalt tänasesse päeva, siis üheks oluliseks sündmuseks saab olema euotsooni rahandusministrite kohtumine, kus arutatakse tulemüüri püstitamist nõrgemate riikide abistamiseks ja finantssüsteemi kaitsmiseks. Kell 12.00 raporteeritakse eurotsooni märtsi inflatsiooninäit, kell 15.30 USA isiklike sissetulekute ja kulutuste veebruarikuu muutus ning kell 16.45 Chicago märtsi PMI ja Michigani ülikooli tarbijasentiment. Päeva jooksul avaldab Hispaania valitsus oma eelarve pakkudes lisainfot, kuidas revideeritud defitsiidi eesmärki kavatsetakse saavutada. Ööl vastu esmaspäeva [parandus: pühapäeval] avaldab Hiina märtsi ametliku töötleva tööstuse PMI näidu, mis HSBC üsna nõrga näitaja tõttu on kindlasti suure tähelepanu all ning võib seega kujuneda oluliseks sentimendi kujundajaks järgmise nädala alguses.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% plussis, Euroopa on avanemas üsna korralikus 0,7%lises plussis.
  • http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-drives-15-of-sp-q1-gains-barclays-2012-03-30
  • February PCE Headline Y/Y +2.3%; Core Y/Y +1.9%
    February Personal Income +0.2% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus
    February Personal Spending +0.8% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus
    February PCE Prices- Core M/M +0.1% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RIMM +1.2%, ZAZA +1%.

    Select financial related names showing strength: BK +2.0%, DFS +1.8%, RF +1.3%, AIG +1.1%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: ANR +1.6%, CLF +1.2%, X +1.0%, ABX +1.0%.

    Other news: KUTV +12.5% (entered into an agreement with Star China), KITD +7.6% (still checking), SNSS +6.9% (Sunesis Pharma and Royalty Pharma announce $25 mln Vosaroxin royalty agreement), THLD +5.5% (receives U.S. orphan drug designation for TH-302 for the treatment of soft tissue sarcoma), MU +1% (settles lawsuit with Oracle), .

    Analyst comments: WYN +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman), VVUS +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray).
  • Mõned tänase reitingu muudatused, mis on Briefingule silma jäänud

    Upgrades:
    Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

    Downgrades:
    Raytheon (RTN) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital

    Miscellaneous:
    U.S. Steel (X), Nucor (NUE), and Steel Dynamics (STLD) initiated with a Buys at Nomura, and AK Steel (AKS) initiated with at Nomura
    Lululemon athletica (LULU) initiated with a Buy at UBS
  • A Run-Up for the Ages
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Mar 30, 2012 | 8:31 AM

    However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. --Winston Churchill

    We are wrapping up the first quarter of 2012 and the results were quite impressive. The gains are the largest in quite some time but what has been most notable about the action is its amazing consistency. The S&P 500 was down more than 1% on just a single day and that loss was completely recouped within two days. There have been few rallies over the years that have been as smooth and steady as this one.

    What worked this quarter was quickly buying each and every dip in the market. In fact, it often was a good idea to not even wait for things to go negative before you jumped in aggressively. The folks who waited for pullbacks rarely saw them and ended up having to chase the market higher to add long exposure.

    The anticipatory bears have been out in full force for practically the whole quarter looking for a top. The laundry list of negatives has been long and impressive but totally irrelevant, which has helped to create a perpetual short squeeze.

    Big-cap momentum names such as Apple (AAPL), IBM (IBM) and Amazon (AMZN) have provided leadership. Oil and commodities did extremely well also, but there were few areas of any real weakness.

    Small-caps have been just about flat since the beginning of February while the Nasdaq1100 has steadily trended higher. This preference for bigger caps is a function of the high level of liquidity that still exists. There is plenty of cash sloshing around looking for a place to go and it is easier to put it into an AAPL than dozens of smaller names.

    The big question now is whether this lopsided, one-way action continues, or do we finally start seeing choppier, more normal action.

    Trading at the end of the quarter and on the first day of a new quarter tends to be very manipulated, so we don't want to read too much into it, but there are a few recent signs that momentum may be slowing.

    The recent increase in initial public offerings and the frenzied trading smacks of excessive bullishness, but at the same time we've had a narrowing of leadership with a smaller group of big-cap names driving the indices. The small-caps and many speculative names have been lagging for a while and recently, weakness in oils and commodities has added a little more pressure.

    It has consistently been a mistake to react too quickly to signs of weakness as the market has been able to find its footing within a day or two and continued to trend upward. There has been no real technical damage done and we aren't even too extended at this point.

    While caution may be warranted and a high level of selection advisable, there is still no reason for overt bearishness. While it is very tempting to keep on looking for a change in market character to develop, there are still only minor signs of problems.

    We have a good bounce kicking in this morning, which is probably due in part to end-of-the-quarter pressures. Stay on your toes and be quick with your trades and we'll be in good shape. It remains business as usual at this point.
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: XRTX -9.4%, FINL -7.7%, FFN -3.7%, TIBX -0.5%, .

    Select names trading lower following offerings: CPF -4.4% (announces public offering of 2,770,117 shares of common stock owned by the United States Department of the Treasury), DNKN -0.8% (priced an upsized public offering by certain of its stockholders of 26.4 mln shares of its common stock at a price of $29.50/share), USG -0.7% (prices $250 mln 7.875% Senior Notes due 2020), .

    Analyst comments: INVN -2.3% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), RTN -1.2% (downgraded to at ).
  • March Chicago PMI 62.2 vs 63.0 Briefing.com consensus, February 64.0


  • Tarbijakindlus, NFP, unemployment rate ja ka natuke kinnisvarastatistikat moodustavad praegu kena kobara kus minumeelest on seis soodsamas seisus võrreldes varasemaga, senise kriisitsükli algusest arvestades. Oluline jälgida kas ja kuidas Hiina jahenemine selle kobara kasvavat tugevust ründab.
  • Kuidas Hiina jahenemine seda ründaks, huvitav. Mina näeks USA tarbimise tagasitulekus rünnakut Hiina jahenemisele. Või ehk siiski, Hiina raha bidid on igasuguste assetite ärakojamisel, kui see ära kaoks... Ise vaataks märts-aprill Hiina yoy data ära. Veebruar 2011-2012 vahel on üks eripära, mis headlines 2012 nõrgendab.
  • John Mauldin keskendub selle nädala newsletter'is Hispaaniale, mis annab hea ja kiire ülevaate, mis positsioonil viimane hetkel seisab ja kuhu tüüritakse.
  • Hiina töötleva tööstuse PMI väljas ning headline selgelt parem võrreldes ootustega 53,1 vs 50,5 (veebruaris 51,0). Huvitav on see, HSBC küsitlus, mis kajastab rohkem väikese ja keskmise suurusega ettevõtete tingimusi, jääb viiendat kuud alla 50 punkti ning on liikunud pigem allapoole. Üheks põhjuseks loetakse seda,et erinevalt suurematest riigiosalusega firmadest on väikeettevõtlusel keerulisem laenu saada, mis mõjutab otseselt ka nende tegevust.
  • GRPN - The popular online-coupon company's auditor, Ernst & Young, called the error a "material weakness in its internal controls" for 2011. Groupon shares, which have been trading below their $20 initial public offering price, sank 6% to $17.20 in after-hours trading.

    The surprise announcement raised questions about the reliability of Groupon's numbers at a moment when it is trying to build confidence of Wall Street investors. It had reported a loss of $37 million for its fourth quarter. The accounting changes will reduce the company's revenue for the quarter by $14.3 million and widen its loss by $22.6 million, or 4 cents a share.


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