Börsipäev 9. mai
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Pärast veidi positiivsemat esmaspäevast turusentimenti vedasid negatiivsed emotsioonid indekseid taas allapoole. Makrokalender jäi õhukeseks, kui ühe peamise uudisena pälvis tähelepanu Saksamaa märtsi töötustoodangu 2,8%line tõus võrreldes veebruariga, mis oli suuresti mõjutatud ehitussektorit soosinud soojematest ilmadest. Sellegipoolest leiab Deutsche Bank värskemas analüüsis, et see võis päästa riigi esimese kvartali SKT 0,2%lisest langusest jäädes selle asemel hoopis neljanda kvartaliga võrreldes muutumatuks. Varasemalt avalikustatud aprillikuu PMI võiks siiski viidata uuele tagasilöögile teise kvartali alguses.
Suurima fookuse all on aga Kreeka draama, kus stabiilse valitsuse moodustamist loetakse jätkuvalt vähetõenäoliseks, samas kui järjest lähemale jõuab tähtaeg (15.mai), mil välisseaduste all välja antud Kreeka võlakirjade omanikud nõuavad 436 miljoni euro suurust põhiosamakset. Kreeka aktsiaturg kukkus täiendavad -4% ning on nüüdseks jõudnud madalaimale tasemele alates 1992. aastast. Stoxx 600 taganes -1,7%.
USA pääses aga väiksemate kriimustustega, kui päeva alguse -1,6%line kaotus suudeti lõpuks -0,4%ni vähendada. Positiivne oli see, et ostmine toimus tugevama käibe najal võrreldes näiteks reedega näidates, et vaatamata fundamentaalselt nõrgale pildile leidub turul siiski ostjaid, kes on valmis sellest mööda vaatama sihtides kas lühiajalist põrget või tuginedes valuatsioonidele. Eile avaldatud USA tööturuameti küsitlus näitas, et märtsis kasvas pakutavate töökohtade arv 3,7 miljonile, mis on kõrgeim tase alates 2008.a keskpaigast. Tavaliselt selline statistika palju tähelepanu ei saa, kuid eelmise nädala oodatust nõrgemat töötururaportit arvesse võttes pakkus see ehk mõningast lohutust.
Vabade töökohtade arv USAs (tuhandetes)
Täna ühtegi olulist makrouudist oodata pole.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad -0,3% punases, Euroopa on alustamas nulli lähedal. -
Doug Kassi arvates võis viimasel kahel päeval taastunud ostmine USA turgudel anda signaali, et mure globaalse kasvuväljavaate ja ettevõtete kasumite osas ei ole suur ning praegused valuatsioonid pigem toetaksid edasist tõusu. Tema arvates on S&P 500 indeksi õiglane väärtus 1485 punkti ehk 9% kõrgemal eilsest sulgumisest. Kass ei ole kindel lähiaja liikumistes, kuid usub et sell in May and go away tänavu ei tööta ning kolme kuni üheksa kuu perspektiiv pigem premeerib investoreid.
To be honest, I have no idea as to the short-term direction of the U.S. stock market. I have always viewed daily, weekly and even a month's market predictions as being no better than a coin toss. (Warren Buffett put it more visually when he once wrote that market prognosticators are like fortune tellers who should be locked up in a closet and kept away from children and portfolio managers who act like children.) But I do feel strongly, that those with an intermediate term prospective (of three to nine months) will be rewarded -- perhaps richly.
Tema ostusoovituse 15 selgitavat põhjust:
1. Economic growth: Most observers are more cautious regarding domestic growth today, even though the recovery's breadth is better -- employment has improved, and there is a nascent recovery in the residential real estate markets. Consensus (worldwide) GDP forecasts (here and abroad) are far more reasonable today. I do not view the April payroll report as the start of a weakening trend but rather a consolidation after warm weather lifted payrolls well above trend line growth in the December-February interim interval. Moreover, the combined manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM in April remains slightly above its long-term average and is consistent with real GDP growth in excess of 2.5% in second quarter 2012.
2. Profits: Corporate profit momentum has turned positive -- the first-quarter profit beat was by over 500 basis points. Historically, this magnitude of upward earnings revisions has been associated with a near-8% rise in the U.S. stock market over the next six months.
3. Housing: The outlook for housing is markedly improved. Household formations are recovering, and the NAHB Index and buyer traffic are at five-year highs while inventories are at five-year low. The role of residential real estate markets cannot be overstated. Representing about one-third of household wealth and nearly half of bank assets, housing could add almost 1% to GDP in 2013.
4. Durable spending: Other types of durable spending are returning -- for instance, autos industry sales have risen sharply to a four-year high.
5. Household health: Household leverage has moved lower -- household debt/GDP has returned back to the long-term average.
6. Employment: Employment indicators have improved relative to a year ago. Claims data are lower, and ISM employment components are consistent with monthly private payroll gains in excess of 200,000. (For net monthly growth, subtract 15,000 to 17,000 for the likely contraction in government workers.) Hours worked are expanding at a 4% annualized rate.
7. U.S. monetary policy: 2012 is highlighted by massive global easing of monetary policy and excessive liquidity. Central banks were generally tightening 12 months ago.
8. European monetary policy: Europe's central bank has lost its obsession with inflation and austerity and has begun to pay more attention to the capital markets and economic growth. (This weekend's elections in Greece and France almost insure more easing of policy and could result in aggressive pro-growth initiatives, as austerity is put on the back burner.)
9. Commodities: Commodity prices are falling year over year. By contrast, a year ago commodity prices were rising. The recent $10-$12 drop in the price of oil (and $0.20-$0.30 drop in the price of gasoline) should serve as a tax cut for the consumer and will likely buoy corporate profit margins.
10. Banks: Banks have materially recapitalized and have passed very stringent stress tests. Pretax, pre- provision income is at near-record highs.
11. Balance sheets: Corporate balance sheets continue to improve and remain rock solid. Debt is low vs. the same time a year ago and liquidity is higher.
12. Investor sentiment: Investors remain risk-averse, and expectations are low. Unlike last year, investors are no longer aggressively positioned toward economic growth or markets. Inflows into domestic equity funds are lower through the first four months in 2012 compared to the beginning of 2011, and hedge funds' net long exposure is lower this year than a year ago. Volumes are low, indicative of nonparticipation of the retail investor, and I still see the big reallocation trade occurring in the fullness of time. (Steve Leuthold made an interesting observation on Monday that the Yale Crash Confidence Index, which measures how fearful large investors are of a crash in the next six months, is sitting on exactly the same reading which has marked four important market lows in the last 20 years.)
13. Valuations: Valuations remain subdued, and the earnings risk premium is still elevated. In Monday's presentation to the Value Investing Congress, I observed that when the S&P 500 stood at 900 in November 2008 and S&P earnings approximated $65 a share, stocks traded at under 14x when the high-yield index yielded 25%. Today, with earnings of $100-$102 per share, the S&P 500 trades at 1375, basically the same P/E multiple that existed in November 2008, even though the high-yield bond index had dropped by over 70% in yield (from 25% to under 8%). Taken another way, over the past five decades, stocks have averaged a P/E of 15.2x. During that period, the yield on the 10-year U.S. note averaged 6.67%. Today the 10-year yield is 1.87%, and stocks trade at under 14x. (In previous periods of low inflation and interest rates, the S&P 500 routinely traded at 18x-19x.)
14. Europe: European stress indicators are lower, reflecting a ring-fencing of the debt problems and facilities that have been put in place to insure funding needs for the next few years as well as improving current account balances in Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal. The cost of interbank lending risk is low and falling -- it was rising last year -- and short-term note yields in Italy and Spain are well off their highs. I have long contended that the EU debt crisis has morphed from a near-fatal affliction to a manageable condition that must be monitored. The results of the French election were in line with expectations. (Betting parlor Ladbrokes had Hollande's odds of winning at 1:9 for the past two weeks.) I do expect some friction between Hollande and Merkel over the next few weeks regarding solutions on how to best address the debt contagion's impact on the peripheral nations. As to Greece, I believe the initial negative response on Sunday evening (that led to the dive in stock futures) was incorrect. To a large degree, Greece's problems are mostly their own, as Greek bondholders have already taken their hit. Though there will remain uncertainty regarding short-term funding, in all likelihood, there will be new elections in June. This election should have a more favorable outcome -- elderly voters stayed home in protest this weekend; they should return in greater numbers (helping the troika).
15. Black swans: In 2011 exogenous events negatively impacted worldwide growth. Thai floods and the Tohoku earthquake disrupted supply chains and hurt sales and resulted in nearly $100 billion of insurance losses. -
Doug Kass oli eile ka Fast Money eetris. Link
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Ford teatas eile, et tavapärase kahenädalase suvepuhkuse asemel seiskub töö osades tehastes suvel vaid üheks nädalaks, et suurendada autode tootmismahtu. Käesoleval kuul on firma lisanud oma tehastesse kolmandat vahetust, et nõudlust paremini rahuldada (siin üks artikkel selle kohta). Sama on teinud ka Chrysler, mis kokkuvõttes annab tööstuse ja autoturu suhtes positiivseid signaale ja tekitab küsimuse, kas mure Euroopa ja firma väljavaadete suhtes on muutunud liiga pessimistlikuks.
Fordi aktsiagraafik -
Troika on poliitilise olukorra tõttu tühistanud varasemalt mai keskele planeeritud visiidi Kreekasse ning arvatakse, et see võib finantsabi osutamise riski alla seada.
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To be honest, I have no idea as to the short-term direction of the U.S. stock market. I have always viewed daily, weekly and even a month's market predictions as being no better than a coin toss.
Ja siis ütleb nii üle päeva, et gun to my head ... we'll be lower / higher ...
Mis asjad need Kassi ütlemised siis on? Lootus? -
Kohati on tema lühiajalised prognoosid üllatavalt täpsed, teinekord jälle selged möödalaskmised, kuid kokkuvõttes siiski väärivad minu meelest tähelepanu. Seda, kui hästi või halvasti on Kassi turutunnetus töötanud, saab järgi uurida siit lehelt. Doug Kass: Lyrical Oracle?
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Saksa Bild on tänases artiklis teinud pika nimekirja sellest, mida Hollande kavatseb oma rahvale kinkida. Pealkiri "Prantslased jäävad pensionile 60aastaselt....ja meie 67selt!" peaks ütlema nii mõndagi. Sealhulgas on ära toodud, et Hollande soovib kolmeks kuuks kütusehinnad külmutada, käibemaksu tagasi 19% peale langetada, tõsta miinimumpalka 1398 euroni kuus.
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Euroopa keskpangas hoiustasid pangad eile 823miljardit eurot, mis jääb napilt alla 5. märtsi rekordile. Kuigi keeruline on öelda, kas EKP käest laenanud finantsasutused on LTRO raha otse tagasi keskpanga bilanssi suunanud või on siiski osa välja antud ja sealt siis kolmanda osapoole kaudu EKP hoiusele jõudnud, siis pigem viitab allolev graafik sellele, et laenuraha ei taha laiemasse majandusse kuidagi tagasi liikuda.
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Poland central bank raises rates 25 bps to 4.75% from 4.50%; were expected to leave rates unchanged
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Sodastream leevendab investorite hirmu oma kasvu osas. Aktsia eelturul +16%
SodaStream Q1 GAAP EPS $0.48 vs $0.42 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; rev $87.9 mln vs. $72.8 mln consensus
SodaStream raises FY12 rev growth to 33% from 28%; net income to 50% from 42% -
Caris järeldab oma analüüsis, et kui David Einhorn presenteerib 16. mail Herbalife'i lühikese ideena, siis on aktsia väärt 39 (enne tänast target 86 USD) aga kui ei, siis võib olla väärt rohkem :)
Caris & Company downgrades HLF to Average from Buy and lowers their tgt to $39 from $86 saying confidence in their EPS and cash flow estimates and in Herbalife's (HLF) management, business model and sustainability of growth remains high, but they think the probability is higher than 50% that David Einhorn will present HLF as a short at the Ira Sohn conference on May 16, sending the stock down more. Firm notes if HLF is not his topic, the share price will jump sharply and they may raise their rating and price target. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DMD +22.3% (also upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), SODA +18.6%, VTSS +17.4%, HIMX +15%, EVOL +11.9% (thinly traded), NILE +8%, DF +6.9% (ticking higher), TAST +4.7%, MCEP +3.8% (thinly traded), TNGO +3.6% (light volume), MDVN +3.2%, JIVE +2.8% (also initiated with a Hold at Needham), AMTG +1.5%, EZCH +1.5% (ticking higher), DIS +0.8%, MRX +0.4% (light volume).
M&A related: HTH +10.6% (Hilltop Holdings enters into definitive merger agreement with PlainsCapital), NKBP (China Nuokang Bio-Pharma announces receipt of 'going private' proposal).
Other news: PSTI +11.1% (Pluristem Therapeutics announces the use of PLacental eXpanded cells has saved the life of a child after bone marrow transplantation failure), ARNA +10.5% (continued strength following release of FDA briefing docs yesterday, also upgraded to Outperform at BMO), SQNM +6% (Sequenom announces coverage agreement with Coventry Health Care), ZAGG +2.9% (ZAGG refutes the implications in recent blog posts, to pursue legal rights to address 'false and misleading statements'), EA +1.2% (positive mention on MadMoney), KTOS +1.1% (prices underwritten public offering of 20 mln shares of its common stock at a purchase price of $5.00 per share).
Analyst comments: ZNGA +1.9% (initiated with a Buy at Citigroup), FOSL +0.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Benchmark, downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan), AIG +0.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: STEC -12.3%, CQB -10.2% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), SGEN -8.6%, MELI -6.7% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), GPOR -6.4%, GCA -5.9% (light volume), BLOX -5.9%, M -3.8%, WPRT -3.7%, TEVA -1.6%.
M&A news: HGSI -1.8% (GlaxoSmithKline confirms it will commence tender offer to acquire HGSI for $13.00/share).
Financial related names showing weakness: LYG -4.5%, STD -4.2%, BBVA -3.8%, MS -3.7%, CS -2.9%, DB -2.7%, C -1.4%, BAC -1.2%, BCS 124.6%.
Metals/mining stocks trading lower: AG -4%, MT -3.3%, SLV -2.6%, RIO -2.6%, AEM -2.1%, BHP -1.5%, BBL -1.5%, GLD -1.4%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: BP -3.3%, TOT -3%, RDS.A -2.4%, E -2.2%, SDRL -1.9%.
Other news: DVAX -13.6% (announces proposed public offering of common stock and announced that it intends to begin developing a commercial operation capable of independently launching HEPLISAV in the U.S.), MWE -4.2% (announces 8 mln share public offering of common units), DNDN -1.6% (continued weakness), NLY -1% (announces public offering of $750 mln of convertible senior notes due 2015; co also announces public offering of Series C Cumulative Redeemable Preferred stock, liquidation preference $25.00/share), LQDT -0.4% (to acquire GoIndustry DoveBid for ~$31 mln), GMCR -1.0% (announces interim Chairman and Changes to Board committee composition).
Analyst comments: CF -3.7% (downgraded at Dahlman Rose), MRVL -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), HLF -2.1% (downgraded to Average at Caris), GNRC -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), ADI -0.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS). -
Germany Finance Minister says if Greece ends its reforms process then no more aid tranches will be paid out; up to Greece if it wants to stay in the euro zone
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EU esindajate sõnul on Kreeka saamas homme 5,2 mld euro suurust laenuosa. See peaks leevendama hirmu, et järgmisel nädalal saab rahvusvahelistele investoritele aeguvate võlakirjade põhiosa tagastatud,samas tekib küsimus, kuidas edastatakse raha samal ajal kui troika ise pole eriti veendunud finantsabi andmise jätkamises ja Draghi ja Barroso lauale laekuvad ähvarduskirjad kärpemeetmete tühistamise ja võlakohustuste mittemaksmise kohta.
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See viis miljardit kulub kõik Kreekal pelgalt maikuu lanukohustuste tasumiseks. Sealt edasi läheb kuni augustini hingamine veidi kergamks, kuid suve lõpp toob taas 4,0 miljardi eurose lunastamiskohustuse.
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Paralleelselt Kreekaga tasub jälgida, mis toimub ka Hispaanias, kus valitsus on väidetavalt riigistamas riigi kolmandaks suurimat panka.
SPAIN TO NATIONALIZE BANKIA LATER TODAY - ABC -
Headlines crossing that EU Commission to forecast Spain's 2012 budget deficit will be 6% of GDP; 2013 budget deficit to be approx 4% under current policies
Hispaania enda soov on saada tänavu defitsiit 5,8% peale ja järgmisel aastal 3% peale. Näib, et ka Euroopa Komisjonil on sellesse vähem usku -
Bloomberg TV headlines crossing that EFSF confirms EUR 5.2 bln trance for Greece
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Täna õhtul on oodata Priceline (PCLN)-i esimese kvartali tulemusi. Aktsia on läbi teinud muljetavaldava ralli ja alates aasta algusest on aktsia tõusnud 60%, kaubeldes hetkel $ 720 kandis.
Ettevõtte on kiirelt kasvanud rahvusvaheliste turgude najal ja antud turukeskkonnas näevad investorid siin ilmselgelt ka ohuallikat firma jaoks. PCLN on tuntud kui ettevõte, mis on juba aastaid konsenuse ootusi ületanud. Kas ettevõte jätkab täna oma traditsiooni ja üllatab investoreid positiivselt, vaatamata sellele, et Euroopa ebalev majanduskliima on paljudele Euroopas tegutsevatele USA firmadele tänavu saatuslikuks saanud? Või teisest küljest, kas turuosalistele lähevad lõppenud kvartali tulemused üldse korda hetkel, mil aktsia kaupleb oma kõigi aegade tippude juures.
Konsensus ootab EPS-ks $ 3,98 ja käibeks $ 1,04 miljardit. -
Täna õhtul raporteerivad veel sellised ettevõtted nagu Cisco Systems (CSCO), Tesla Motors (TSLA) ja Universal Display (PANL).
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Priceline.com prelim $4.28 vs $3.98 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.04 bln vs $1.04 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Priceline.com sees Q2 $7.20-7.40 vs $7.34 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs +18-23% vs. +26.6% consensus
PCLN kaupleb alla $ 700 taseme, 2,5% miinuspoolel. -
Cisco Systems prelim $0.48 vs $0.47 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $11.6 bln vs $11.58 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Aktsia järelkauplemise ajal -2,1% -
Tesla Motors misses by $0.07, revenues fell 38.4% year/year to $30.2 mln vs the $31.86 mln consensus; initial S Model deliveries will begin in June
Aktsia järelkauplemise ajal +3,3%
