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Börsipäev 5. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kui USA turud jäävad suletuks ei ole erilist aktiivsust loota ka mujal maailmas. Päev jäi seetõttu eile Euroopas vaikseks, kui Stoxx600 sulgus sisuliselt muutumatuna. Kerget müüki said siiski Hispaania ja Itaalia börsid, kus indeksid alanesid 0,7-0,8%.

    Makrost olid Euroopast tähelepanu all teenindussektori PMId. Üldiselt on just teenindussektor töötlevast tööstusest paremini vastu pidanud, kuid näiteks Suurbritannias ja Saksamaa oli pilt vastupidine. UK PMI alanes juunis kahe punkti võrra 51,3 punkti peale (oodati 52,9) ja Saksamaa esialgne näit revideeriti 0,4 punkti võrra allapoole 49,9 peale (mais 51,8). Prantsusmaa oma revideeriti 0,6 punkti võrra kõrgemale 47,9 peale (mais 45,1) ja Itaalia näitaja kerkis 0,3 punkti võrra 43,1 peale. Kogu eurotsooni teenindussektori PMI revideeriti tänu Prantsusmaale ja perifeeriale 0,3 punkti võrra kõrgemale 47,1 punkti peale. Kuigi mais oli vastav näitaja 46,7, siis üle Euroopa jäävad indeksid siiski suhteliselt pehmeks.

    Teenindussektori PMId - Suurbritannia (oranž), Saksamaa (valge), Prantsusmaa (kollane), Itaalia (roheline)


    Kullipilguga jälgitakse täna Euroopa Keskpanga intressimäära otsust. Kuigi eelmisel korral otsustati baasmäär samaks jätta, siis Draghi sõnul ei olnud otsus üksmeelne, vaid juba leidus hääletajaid, kes soovisid intressi langetada. Kuna makro poolel on pilt pigem muutunud halvemaks, siis seetõttu on kasvanud ka nende arvajate osakaal, kes prognoosivad tänaselt kohtumiselt refinantseerimismäära 25 baaspunktist kärbet ja võib-olla langetust ka deposiidi määras. Pressikonverentsil võib kuumaks teemaks olla läinud reede ELi tippkohtumine ja seal vastu võetud otsused ning EKP võimalik sekkumine taas riigivõlakirja turgudel.

    QE programmi suurendamisele oli eelmisel korral lähedal ka Inglise keskpank ning võttes arvesse liikmete suhteliselt negatiivseid sõnavõtte majanduse teemal pärast eelmist kohtumist, siis tõenäosus antud otsuse vastuvõtmiseks on viimase kuuga kahtlemata kasvanud. Võimalik, et seda võidakse edasi lükata ka augustisse, mil inflatsiooniraporti raames Suurbritannia majanduse väljavaatest põhjalikum analüüs tehakse.

    Lisaks keskpankade otsustele võib makrost veel tähelepanu köita Saksamaa tehaste tellimused, USA ADP tööturu küsitlus, esmakordsete töötu abiraha taotluste arv ning teenindussektori ISM.

    13.00 Saksamaa tehaste tellimused (juuni)
    14.00 Inglise keskpanga otsus
    14.45 Euroopa keskpanga otsus, 15.30 pressikonverents
    15.15 USA ADP küsitlus (juuni)
    15.30 USA esmaste töötu abiraha taotluste arv
    17.00 USA teenindussektori ISM (juuni)

    USA indeksite kauplevad hetkel 0,3% jagu punases, Euroopa on alustamas nulli lähedal.
  • Troika saabub täna taas Kreekasse vaatamaks seda, kas riik täidab laenudega paika pandud nõudeid. Eile meediast läbi jooksnud uudiste kohaselt on maksude kogumine kulgemas arvatust kehvemini ning see tingib maha jäämise eelarve defitsiidi eesmärkides. Väidetavalt võib troika nõuda seetõttu 2 miljardi euro ulatuses täiendavaid kärpeid.
  • Enne kui ESM saab hakata otse Euroopa pankasid vajadusel rekapitaliseerima tuleb luua üleeuroopaline järelvalvesüsteem, mida hakkab juhtima EKP. WSJ kirjutab täna, et plaani realiseermine aasta lõpuks võib olla liiga ambitsioonikas eesmärk:

    "There is a pressure to move ahead relatively quickly," said one senior finance official from a euro-zone country. He added that even under the best of circumstances, getting the supervisor up and running would take nine to 12 months.

    Lisaks kardab Bundesbank, et EKP-l võib tekkida huvide konflikt ning pankade järelvalve hakkab segama keskpanga peamise mandaadi täitmist, milleks on inflatsiooni ohjamine.

    But skeptics, led by Germany's central bank, worry that a supervisory role would make it harder for the ECB to achieve its primary function: maintaining price stability. The Bundesbank—which already supervises German banks along with the country's bank regulator BaFin—sees a potential conflict between supervision and monetary policy, said a person familiar with the matter.
  • Hispaanial on raskusi käesoleva ja järgmise aasta eelarve defitsiidi eesmärgi saavutamisega mistõttu on valitsus väidetavalt planeerimas 30 miljardi euro ulatuses täiendavaid maksutõstmisi ja kärpemeetmeid (3% SKTst). Paratamatult tähendab see täiendavat survet majandusele ning ohtu, et satutakse koledasse nõiaringi. Reutersi vahendusel võib lugeda pikemalt.

    Running over several years, the programme could involve raising Spain's main consumer tax, a new energy levy, reforms to the pension system, pay cuts for civil servants, new motorway tolls and another drastic reduction in ministry and regional spending, the sources said.

    Some measures may be announced next week, when the EU is likely to grant the government an extra year to cut its deficit below 3 percent of output, and others could be presented over the summer and included in a multi-year budget plan due to be prepared in August.


  • Hispaania müüs ca €3 miljardi väärtuses 3, 5 ja 10-aastaseid võlakirju. Kõikide tähtaegade korral ületas nõudlus pakkumist vähemalt kaks korda, kuid võla hind langes vaid 3-aastaste võlakirjade puhul.

    Spain sells EUR 1.24bln 4.00% Jul'15 bonds, bid/cover 2.28, Prev. 3.18 (Yield 5.086%, Prev. 5.457%)
    Spain sells EUR 1.01bln 4.25% Oct'16 bonds, bid/cover 2.56, Prev. 2.56 (Yield 5.536%, Prev. 5.353%)
    Spain sells EUR 747mln 5.85% Jan'22 bonds, bid/cover 3.18, Prev. 3.29 (Yield 6.430%, Prev. 6.044%)

  • EURUSD on langenud juulikuu põhjadesse $1,25 tasemeni.
  • Saksamaa tehaste tellimused oodatust paremad....aasta baasil näidati mais küll -5,4% langust, kuid analüütikud ootasid -6,0% kukkumist.
  • Bank of England leaves rates unchanged at 0.5%; asset purchase program expanded by GBP 50 bln, as expected
  • Hiina keskpank langetas intressi 31 baaspunkti võrra 6% peale
  • Järgmise nädala reedel saabuvad Hiina SKT Q2 numbrid, mida tänase intressi langetamise valguses ilmselt kardetakse nüüd natuke rohkem. Aga täpselt sama case oli juunis enne oluliste majandusnäitajate avaldamist. Hiljem aga selgus, et midagi hullu kasvu osas siiski aset ei leidnud.
  • European Central Bank cuts rates 25 bps to 0.75%, as expected
  • Lisaks langetas ECB deposiidimäära 0% peale.

    EURUSD esialgse reaktsiooni tulemusena tugeva surve all, kaubeldes 0,45% miinuspoolel $1,2470 juures.
  • Headlines crossing that new Greek FinMin Stournaras says Troika lenders have told him he will have a difficult time at Eurogroup meeting on Monday. Greek program is off track in some respects.
  • SSS numbrid siiani kõik alla ootuste

    Zumiez Inc reports Jun same store sales +8.2%% vs +8.6% Retail Metrics consensus
    Walgreen reports Jun same store sales -10.0% vs -7.7% Retail Metrics consensus
    Macy's reports Jun same store sales +1.2% vs +2.3% Retail Metrics consensus; reaffirms FY12 guidance
    Target reports Jun same store sales +2.1% vs +2.8% Retail Metrics consensus; reaffirms Q2 EPS guidance
    Gap reports Jun same store sales 0.0% vs +0.3% Retail Metrics consensus
    Fred's reports Jun same store sales -4.0% vs +0.3% Retail Metrics consensus; sees Q2 EPS at lower end of projected range
  • ADP sisendab reedese tööjõuraporti osas lootust, kuid ei ole alati kõige adekvaatsem prognoosimisvahend olnud

    June ADP Employment Change 176K vs 105K Briefing.com consensus; Prior 133K
  • Headline that Germany's Merkel says decision on European banking surpervision is urgently required as shown by Spanish banks
  • Gapping up
    Metals/mining stocks trading higher: KGC +2%, RIO +1.9%, BHP +1.4%, GG +1.2%, SVM +0.7% (reports independent mineral resource estimates on Silvertip Silver-Lead-Zinc property in northern British Columbia, Canada), GOLD +0.6%, GDX +0.4%, BBL +0.3%.

    Other news: PCX +14.1% (still checking), OSUR +12.4% (OraSure Tech confirms it has received FDA approval for OraQuick In-Home HIV test), CHTP +6.9% (modestly rebounding), MLNX +4.8% (still checking), SXCI +4.3% (closed CHSI merger earlier this week), PHMD +4.2% (still checking, announced earlier this week settlement of all litigation with TRIA), AH +4.1% (light volume, Accretive Health disclosed earlier that the co and Ascension Health are in the process of finalizing the terms for an expected five year renewal of the Amended and Restated Master Services Agreement dated as of Dec 13, 2007), ELN +3.3% (still checking).

    Analyst comments: YNDX +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill).
  • Initial Claims 374K vs 385K Briefing.com consensus, Prior revised to 388K from 386K
    Continuing Claims rises to 3.306 mln from 3.302 mln
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AMBO -8.2%, (thinly traded), BKE -3.5% (ticking lower), TGT -3.3% (reports Jun same store sales +2.1% vs +2.8% Retail Metrics consensus; reaffirms Q2 EPS guidance), COST -1.7%, WAG -1.7% (to acquire USA Drug Pharmacy Chain in Mid-South; transaction will not have a material impact on EPS in FY12), M -1.1% (reaffirms FY12 guidance).

    A few financial related names showing weakness: RBS -2.5%, BBVA -1.8%, SAN -1.5%, DB -1.4%, BCS -1.3% (Barclays PLC: S&P revised Barclays Bank Outlook To Negative On CEO Departure And Strategic Uncertainties; 'A+/A-1' Ratings Affirmed).

    Select drug stocks trading lower: SNY -1.4%, NVS -1.4%, NVO -1.2%.

    Other news: STO -2.6% (Statoil ASA preparing to halt production after notice of lockout), LIVE -2.2% (modestly pulling back), SDRL -1.8% (still checking), .

    Analyst comments: VE -5.1% (Veolia Environment downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS ), AEG -2.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at ING Group).
  • Don't Fight the Central Banks
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Jul 05, 2012

    Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws.

    -- Mayer Anselm Rothschild

    The theme this morning is that the worldwide economy is so bad that governments around the world need to act to prop things up. China lowered key interest rates for the second time in a month, the Bank of England rolled out a $78 billion bond-buying program, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by one-third.

    None of these moves are unexpected, but the lesson of central-bank stimulus has been that it is a poor idea to fight it. Once the central banks crank up the printing presses, the market has had a tendency to levitate with barely a pause along the way.

    The situation this morning is a bit trickier, because virtually everyone recognizes that we are already technically extended and badly in need of some consolidation. And since this stimulus news is widely anticipated, does that set us up for some sell-the-news action?

    When the central banks are easing, the best strategy is to look for quick support and to be an active dip-buyer. The flood of cheap money that such moves create has to go somewhere, and the path of least resistance tends to be into the stock market.

    Time and again, overbought markets become even more overbought when central banks are easing, so while it makes sense to look for some sort of consolidation because of the technical conditions, it is a mistake to be too bearish. These moves this morning are likely to create some strong underlying support.

    We are coming in a little as I write, as the sell-the-news reflex is just too strong to fight, but I'm looking for a fairly shallow pullback and consolidation rather than a reversal and a resumption of the downtrend.

    We are at a very tricky juncture after the spike prior to the holiday, and now there are headlines about Greece hitting, and we are going to kick off earnings season shortly as well. We will continue to be highly macro-driven, and that makes individual stock-picking extremely challenging.

    My approach to this market has been to respect the volatility of the macro situation and to try to knock out some quicker trades in areas that are less influenced by the major headlines. That has worked quite well with small biotechnology stocks lately, and there have been some other select trades, but after the move before the holiday, we have fewer and fewer good chart setups. I'd like to see some pullbacks to make for better charts, but the market has often been very uncooperative in doing that when central-bank easing is taking place.

    We are set up for a good battle between an extended market and central-bank stimulus. The history is that the banks will prevail, and I'm not planning on making any big bets against them at this point.
  • ECB President Draghi Press Conference- Asked if decision Unanimous- says the decision on 'all grounds' was unanimous. Did not discuss other non-standard measures; says need to have them be effective and does not believe that is the case in the highly fragmeneted areas... have not seen signs of outflows from LTRO which is important;
  • June ISM Services 52.1 vs 53.0 Briefing.com consensus; May 53.7

    ISM teenuste number alla ootuste. See on viimase 2.5 aasta madalaim number.
  • STX hoiatas. Aprillis antud Q4 guido revenue at least $5B ning GM at least 34,5% muutus revenue $4,5B ning GM 33,6%.
    Analüütikud on viimasel ajal channel chekkide pealt allapoole tulemas ning siit võib ka Q1 kehvema panna. Tulemused 30. juulis. Aasta pärast maksab arvatavasti jälle alla $20, aga täna ei oska vist midagi ette võtta, sest stocki osas ollakse küll karused, kuid omajagu teflonstock viimasel ajal. Ehk põhjus selles, et Greenlight Capital teeb seal oma avg-i paremaks :)
  • INFA - Informatica reports preliminary Q2 EPS 27c-28c, consensus 37c
    Reports preliminary Q2 revenue $188M-$190M, consensus $217.15M.


    No nii, see asi ei tohiks inline tulemustki teha, saaks tappa, aga selline... Kallis stock, omajagu positiivse consensusega. Huvitavam situatsioon kui STX. Siit loodaks mõnda dg-d.

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