Börsipäev 6. juuli
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Eilne päev kuulus keskpankadele, kellest osade otsused olid ootuspärased, teised aga üllatuslikud. Üldiselt on turgudele majandust täiendavalt stimuleerivad meetmed meeldinud, kuid eilne negatiivne reaktsioon turgudel näitas pigem turuosaliste muret majandusprobleemide pärast, mis on meeleheitele viinud ka keskpangad. Stoxx 600 langes -0,15%, S&P 500 -0,47%.
Sisuliselt samal ajal kui oodati Inglise keskpanga otsust tuli oma teatega välja Hiina keskpank, kärpides laenumäära 31 baaspunkti võrra 6% peale, mis on teine langetamine viimase kuu jooksul. Intresside alandamist ei oodatud niipea, mistõttu hinnatakse seda sammu oodatust agressiivsemaks ning teoorias peaks aitama turusentimenti toetada.
Inglise keskpank jättis oma baasintressi 0,5% peale, ent suurendas valitsuse võlakirjade ostuprogrammi mahtu 50 miljardi naela võrra 375 miljardini, mida analüütikud suuresti ka ootasid. Võlakirju ostetakse järgmise nelja kuu jooksul, millest tulenevalt võib järgmist suuremat otsust oodata sügisel, kui majandusolukord ei peaks vahepeal paremaks muutuma. BoE hinnangul peaks 50 miljardi naela suurune täiendav QE toetama SKTd 0,5% jagu ning tõstma inflatsiooni 0,3-0,4 protsendipunkti võrra.
Euroopa Keskpank otsustas langetada baasintressi 25 punkti võrra 0,75% peale ja deposiidimäära tuua nulli. Kuna viimase puhul spekuleeriti väiksemat langetust, siis kokkuvõttes oli EKP samm arvatust julgem. Kuid pressikonverents tekitas märksa negatiivsema meeleolu, kuna Draghi avaldas vastuseisu käivitada uut LTROd ning olla ESMi rahastaja. Tõdeti, et eurotsooni majanduse pilt on halvenenud, kuid lahendusi selle leevendamiseks ei pakutud ning lisati, et igasugused ebastandardsed meetmed võivad jääda eurotsoonile sarnases killustatud majandusruumis ebapiisavaks.
USA poolel jagus nii häid kui halbu uudiseid. Iganädalased töötu abiraha taotlused alanesid möödunud nädalal 388K pealt 374K peale, mis on ettevaatavalt tööturu osas positiivseks näitajaks. Kuid nelja nädala libisev keskmine tuli vaid -1K võrra allapoole 386K peale, olles kõrgem võrreldes maikuu omaga ja indikeerib, et juunis tööturu pilt kuigi palju võrreldes maikuuga ei muutunud. Alla ootuste jäi teenindussektori ISM (52,1 vs 53,7 mais), kuid lootustandev oli komponentidest tööhõive indeks, mis kerkis 50,8 pealt 52,3 peale. Ka juuni ADP küsitlus tuli üle ootuste (+176K vs prog 100K).
Tänase päeva kõige oodatumaks raportiks saab olema USAs loodud töökohtade arv. Võrdlesin all graafikul väljaspool põllumajandussektorit loodud töökohtade arvu muude tööturu indikaatoritega (ADP ning ISM indeksite tööhõive komponendid). Sealt on näha, et nii ADP kui üks ISM-dest võiks luua kerget optimismi tänaste numbrite osas ning ka töötleva tööstuse ISM ei näidanud drastilist halvenemist. Samas tasub märkida, et ADP on kohati liikunud NFP-le ka täiesti vastupidises suunas (selle aasta sees jaanuar, veebruar, mai) ja ka ISMi tööhõive indeksid ei ole alati kõige paremaks prognoosimisvahendiks osutunud. Konsensus ootab 100K uue töökoha loomist (mais 69K), kui näiteks Goldman otsustas eile tõsta oma prognoosi 50K võrra 125K peale.
Tänane makrokalender
10.00 Hispaania tööstustoodang (mai)
13.00 Saksamaa tööstustoodang (mai)
15.30 USA väljaspool põllumajandussektorit loodud töökohtade arv (juuni)
15.30 USA töötuse määr, keskmise töötasu ja tööaja muutus (juuni)
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,1% jagu punases, Euroopa on alustamas poole protsendi jagu madalamal. -
Soojasid ilmasid on loetud ühek peamiseks põhjuseks, miks töökohtade loomine on USA viimastel kuudel takerdunud. Siin on Morgan Stanley'lt huvitav joonis, kus võrreldakse olukorda 2005-2006 aastaga, mil ilmastikutingimused olid viimati nõnda sarnased ja seega puhtalt selle põhjal võiksime äkki näha juunis taas väikest positiivset efekti.
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Hispaania tööstustoodang alanes mais -6,10% võrreldes aastataguse perioodiga, mis oli oodatud -8,12%st parem (aprillis -8,3%).
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Müstilised liikumised Hispaania võlakirjaturul, täna 10a yield tagasi 7% lähedal. Sentimenti ilmselt natuke rusumas Lagarde, kelle sõnul kavatseb IMF tuua oma SKT prognoose allapoole.
She said: "In the last few months, the global outlook has been more worrying for Europe, the United States and large emerging markets."
The IMF will downgrade some of its economic forecasts later this month as economic data from major and emerging economies has deteriorated in recent months, she added.
"The IMF's forecasts are likely to be lower than our previous forecasts." -
Saksamaa tööstustoodang jäi mais muutumatuks, mis oli samuti oodatust parem (-1,2%)
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Päris hea, mis nad on seal palavusest segased?
Baird Cuts STX to Neutral from Outperform, price target: $27 -
Kreeka ei suuda koguda 12,6 miljardi (6.2% SKTst) ulatuses määratud maksutrahve, kuna töökäsi jääb väheks ja puudub probleemi lahendav elektrooniline süsteem. Tänaseks on sellest summast suudetud kokku korjata 630 miljoni. Via ekathimerini
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: XRTX +5.5%.
M&A news: SHP +15.1% (announces receipt of "going private" proposal at $8.50 to $9.50 per ADS).
A few coal related names are modestly higher: PCX +2.2%, JRCC +1.8%, ACI +1.4%, ANR +0.4%.
Other news: NAV +4.2% (announces advanced clean engine technology to meet emissions regulations), AV +2.7% (light volume, announces pricing of offering of Delta Lloyd ordinary shares, upgraded to Hold from Sell at Societe Generale), GLNG +2.4% (ticking higher, secures Chile's first FSRU award; expected to generate avg. annual EBITDA of ~$48 mln), GSK +0.7% (still checking). -
June Unemployment Rate 8.2% vs 8.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior 8.2%
June Nonfarm Payrolls 80K vs 100K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 77K from 69K
June Nonfarm Private Payrolls 84K vs 105K Briefing.com consensus -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: INFA -26% (also downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA/Merrill, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), STX -3.4% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird).
Select financial related names showing weakness: BBVA -4.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at HSBC), SAN -2.7%, IRE -2.0%, RBS -1.2%, DB -1%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SLV -1%, GG -0.9%, GFI -0.9%, GLD -0.6%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: ATPG -1.8%, HAL -0.9%, BP -0.9% (has been excluded from the bidding process for Abu Dhabi oil fields, according to reports), STO -0.8%, E -0.7%, SDRL -0.7%, TOT -0.4%.
A few STX peers seeing early weakness: WDC -3.5%, MU -1.6%, STM -1.5%,
Other news: ALXA -8.9% (announces Adasuve (staccato loxapine) PDUFA goal date of December 21, 2012), PGH -7.6% (Pengrowth Energy announced that its monthly dividend payment will be reduced to CDN $0.04 per month), DYN -3.4% (Dynegy files voluntary petition to reorganize under Chapter 11; sets stage for merger with Dynegy Holdings), LF -3.3% (Announces Resignation Of Chief Financial Officer Mark Etnyre), SAP -2.4% (still checking), WPRT -2.2% (weakness attributed to NAV news that that it will introduce its next generation clean engine solution).
Analyst comments: CAT -1.7% (Hearing removed from Priority Stock List at Wells Fargo), AZN -0.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies). -
Headlines crossing that Senior Eurozone Official says risk would remain with sovereigns for ESM assistance given directly to European banks
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The Bearish Scenario Is Obvious
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Jul 06, 2012
People deal too much with the negative, with what is wrong. ... Why not try and see positive things, to just touch those things and make them bloom? --Thich Nhat Hanh
Could the setup for a pullback be any more obvious? The market is technically extended, momentum is slowing and there's overhead resistance. In addition, there are a slew of fundamental concerns as banking authorities around the world prop things up with interest rate cuts and quantitative easing.
The big question this morning is whether the monthly jobs report will be the catalyst that sends the market into a correction. The better than expected ADP and weekly claims numbers yesterday raised expectations but there is plenty of nervousness after weak reports the last few months.
What makes today's employment report particularly tricky is that the market is still quite obsessed with quantitative easing. If the report is bad enough it could be a positive as hope for QE in the near term ramps up. On the other hand, a strong report will push back the QE hope but positive economic signs could bring in buyers. A mixed report may be the worst scenario as it keeps the Fed on hold and maintains the economic pessimism.
The biggest positive is that the bearish scenario is so obvious. It is nearly impossible to look at the current setup and not think that a pullback is likely. Even the bulls will tell you that the market could use some consolidation.
Another positive is that the sharp move up since the European Union Summit banking decision is that it created quite a few underinvested bulls and provided a supply of dip-buyers who were caught be surprised when we gapped up strongly a weak ago. They have not been able to add long exposure and many of them would be happy to buy weakness.
In addition to the obviousness of the bearish setup, another reason I'm not overly negative is the tendency of this market to produce V-shaped moves. I'm not exactly sure why we have seen that sort of action so often in the last few years but it has been consistent enough that I've very respectful of the fact that overbought markets tend to become overbought. The negatives are often ignored for long periods and it is very hard to predict when they may finally matter.
The primary reason that I'm not more positive about this market is that the recent action has ruined most of the individual chart patterns. We have a lot of stocks that have run well and no longer offer very good entry points. A good example is Nationstar Mortgage Holdings (NSM), which was my Stock of the Week last week. It has run up more than 25% in the past six days and needs a rest. The stock is still interesting but entering here is problematic. Many other stocks such as Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) are in a similar situation but they will be much more appealing if they pullback and consolidate a bit now.
Another issue to keep in mind is that earnings season kicks off on Monday when Alcoa (AA) reports. The first big report of consequence is GOOG next Thursday, and we'll find out then what the mood of the market is. There seems to be a very high level of worry about earnings this quarter due to weakness in Europe but with expectations low that may not be a bad thing.
If the jobs news comes in fairly close to expectations, I'm looking for very choppy action. The bears are champing at the bit to short this market and they may find themselves squeezed if they push too hard on mixed data. There are many things to not like about this market right now, but I'm wary of how many folks seem to think it can only go down from here. -
Reuters reporting that a Senior euro zone official has said there will be no cash disbursement to greece until the Eurogroup has determined programme is back on track
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Brasiilia valitsus võttis mais autoturu toetamiseks kasutusele meetmed (võimalik, et see pole seal esimest korda), mis leidsid kriisi ajal laialdast kasutust nii Euroopas, USAs kui Aasias. Paketi raames kärbiti käibemaksu kohati kuni seitsme protsendipunkti võrra ning alandati piiranguid autolaenude sissemaksetes, mis andnud kunstliku tagantõuke juunikuu müügitulemustele. YoY oli kasv 19% rekordilise 4,19 miljonini(SAAR). Mida Euroopa ja USA näited aga tõestasid on see, et selline meede on ajutine ning pikaajaliselt võib hoopis valusamalt kätte maksta, kui juba praegu survestavad autoturgu tarbijate halvenevad krediidinäitajad.
Via Forbes: Car loans are the worst of the lot. Defaults on auto loans increased 0.2 percentage points to a total of 6.1 percent in May. Auto loan default rates are up 2.5 percent over the last 12 months, the highest out of all the consumer credit monitoring by the Central Bank.Total consumer debt in default was around R$81.72 billion in May, or around $40.4 billion. -
Nüüd uurimise all ka Deutsche (-4,6%)
Deutsche Bank: Reuters reporting, citing sources that a German financial regulator Bafin conducting special probe of DB on Libor
