Börsipäev 16. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
Läinud nädal lõppes väga positiivse noodiga, kui ühest küljest ei olnud Hiina SKT näit vast nii hull, kui arvati, JPMorgani headline numbrid kujunesid oodatust paremaks ning vaikselt hakati Bernanke esinemise eel spekuleerima taas QE3 teemal.
Vihjeid võimaliku rahatrüki kohta loodetakse kuulda homsest Ben Bernanke tunnistusest Kongressi ees, mil ta annab ülevaate rahapoliitikast ja majanduslikust väljavaatest. Pärast FOMC kohtumist on makronäitajad vahepeal jätkanud halvenemist ning kindlasti on Kongressi liikmed valmis küsima, mida saab keskpank teha majandusele taas elu sisse puhumiseks, kuid kuna pilt pole läinud drastiliselt halvemaks ja eelmise kohtumise protokoll ei vihjanud selgemale soovile uut rahatrükki läbi viia, siis eeldatavalt midagi radikaalset me tema esinemisest ei kuule.
Tõenäoliselt toonitab ta taaskord seda, mida Kongressil endal tuleks teha 2013.a alguses erinevate maksusoodustuste ja abirahade lõppemisest tekkiva negatiivse majandusliku šoki ärahoidmiseks. BofAMLi arvates on keskpankade tingitud rallid turgudel jäänud järjest lühemaks, kuna nende efektiivsus on muutunud paljude silmis küsitavaks, mistõttu läheb veenmiseks vaja üha ebastandardsemaid meetmeid.
The room for further monetary policy action is limited when, at a low interest rate environment, quantitative easing often fails to persuade for its effectiveness by arguing that the counterfactual would have been even worse. Debt sustainability concerns in most advanced economies limit the room for additional fiscal stimulus. And election calendars (particularly in the US this year and Germany next) prevent bold policy initiatives.
Käesolev nädal on ettevõtete majandustulemuste osas juba märksa aktiivsem, kui eesotsas jätkavad pangad (Citi, GS, Morgan Stanley, BAC), kuid leidub ka väga palju tehnoloogiaettevõtteid (Microsoft, IBM, Google, Yahoo!, Intel ja AMD) ning muid blue chip firmasid (Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, General Electric).
Tänasest makrokalendrist võiks välja tuua eurotsooni juuni inflatsiooninäidu ja USA jaemüügi. Enne USA turgude avanemist raporteerib Citigroup.
12.00 Eurotsooni inflatsioon (juuni)
15.30 USA jaemüügi muutus (juuni)
15.30 USA Empire State töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (juuli)
17.00 USA ettevõtete varud (mai)
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,25% madalamal, Euroopa on avanemas nulli lähedal. -
Saksamaa konstitutsioonikohus teatab, et otsus ESMi osas langetatakse 12. septembriks
-
Eurotsooni inflatsioon püsis juunis 2,4% peal, mis vastas ka analüütikute ootustele. Tegemist on 16 kuu madalaima näitajaga.
-
USA turgude avanedes peaks IMF värskendama oma majandusprognoose, mille eel on Lagarde juba nentinud, et neid tuuakse allapoole. Siin on aprillikuu prognoosidest väike ülevaade.
USA: +2,1% 2012a ja 2,4% 2013a
UK: +0,8% 2012.a ja +2,0% 2013.a
Eurotsoon: -0,3% 2012.a ja +0,9% 2013.a
Maailmamajandus: +3,6% 2012.a ja +4,1% 2013.a
Ja sellised olid prognoosid jaanuaris... -
Tänane teema ehk.
BMO cutib coali stocke. Nunnud targetid, High debt levels(PCX ayone?).
Taustaks, so obvius, aga kaua sa neid siis ikka vajuda lased -
NABE läbiviidud küsitluse kohaselt on USA ettevõtted tõmmanud viimastel kuudel selgelt tagasi plaane palgata uusi töötajaid juurde, mis osaliselt võiks selgitada ka viimases NFP raportis nähtud palkade ja töötasu oodatust suuremat kasvu ning mitme kuu kõrgeimat ajutiste töökohtade loomist, kuna ebaselgema tuleviku tõttu üritatakse nõudlust rahuldada minimaalsete kuludega ning säilitada maksimaalset paindlikkust. Via Reuters
Only 23 percent of the firms polled in June plan to add to staff in the next six months, the National Association for Business Economics said on Monday.
NABE's prior survey, conducted in late March and early April, had shown 39 percent of companies planning to add workers. -
Citigroup prelim $0.95 ($1.00 ex-items)vs. $0.90 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $18.6 bln vs $18.9 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate (26.65)
-
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: C +2.4%.
M&A related: PRX +36.4% (Par Pharmaceutical Companies Enters into definitive agreement to be acquired by TPG for $50/share), HGSI +3.6% (Glaxo to raise bid to $14 per in friendly takeover, according to reports).
Other news: DSS +5.4% (Document Security Systems' motions hearing in Coupons.com case rescheduled for earlier date), V +3% and MA +2.9% (enter into agreement to settle U.S. merchant litigations), BAC +2.1% (popping on C results), HCSG +1.7% (positive mention on MadMoney), VOD +0.7% (reports indicate that the co could get $4.5 bln dividend from Verizon), NCR +0.7% (ticking higher following positive mention in Barron's), LVS +0.5% (Las Vegas Sands was given extension for new Macau casino although company will pay penalty, according to reports), MHP +0.3% (Apollo Global Management explores bid for McGraw-Hill education unit, according to reports).
Analyst comments: QCOM +0.3% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Societe Generale). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NSPH -8%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: BCS -4.3%, SAN -2.3%, BBVA -2.3%, DB -1.6%, UBS -1.3%, CS -1%, HBC -0.7%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: RIO -1.6%, SLV -1.1%, MT -0.9%, BHP -0.8%, BBL -0.6%, GLD -0.5%.
Other news: CTIC -5.1% (Cell Therapeutics discloses its subsidiary has entered into a Master Services Agreement with Quintiles Commercial Europe), NOK -2.2% (Nokia has cut the price of its smartphone by 50%, according to reports), ERIC -1.5% (still checking).
Analyst comments: SNDK -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Robert W. Baird), ANR -5.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at BMO Capital), ACI -4.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), TXN -1.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital), GE -0.9% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), AIXG -0.8% (Aixtron downgraded to Hold from Buy at ThinkEquity). -
June Retail Sales ex-auto -0.4% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to -0.4% from -0.4%
June Retail Sales -0.5% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior -0.2%
July Empire Manufacturing 7.4 vs 3.8 Briefing.com consensus; June 2.3 -
Microsoftilt mingi olulisem uudis tulemas Eesti aja järgi kell 22.00
Microsoft will make an announcement at 12:00 Pacific Time (3:00 pm ET) -- no other details given (29.41) -
Mida Nokia teeb? Üles-alla?
-
mõned IMFi värskemad prognoosid:
IMF: Lowers U.K. 2013 economic growth outlook to 1.4% vs. 2.0%.
IMF: Reduces Japan 2013 growth forecast to 1.5% vs. 1.7%.
IMF: Cuts 2012 growth forecasts for U.S., China, France, U.K.
IMF: Italy and Spain contractions to extend into next year.
IMF: Reduces China's 2013 growth forecast to 8.5% vs 8.8%.
IMF: Cuts 2013 euro-zone growth forecast to 0.7% vs. 0.9%.
IMF: Sees room for ECB to ease monetary policy further. Says more steps needed in Europe to stabilize markets.
IMF: U.S. to grow 2.3% next year vs prior 2.4% forecast.
IMF: Reduces Germany's 2013 growth forecast to 1.4% vs. 1.5%.
IMF: Lowers 2013 global growth forecast to 3.9% vs. 4.1%.
The IMF now expects Britain's GDP to expand by a meagre 0.2% this year (down from 0.8% three months ago), and by 1.4% next year.
For the eurozone, the IMF still expects a 0.3% contraction in 2012, but it now believes it will only grow by 0.9% in 2013, not 1.1% as previously thought. It also trimmed 0.1% point off its forecasts for the US economy, to 2.0% growth in 2012 and 2.3% in 2013.
For the world economy in total, the IMF now expects GDP growth of 3.5% in 2012 (down from 3.6%), and 3.9% in 2013 (down from 4.1%). -
stocker
Mida Nokia teeb? Üles-alla?
isiklikult ei julge isegi pakkuda, et see võiks Nokiat puudutada -
May Business Inventories +0.3% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
-
Erko Rebane
Microsoftilt mingi olulisem uudis tulemas Eesti aja järgi kell 22.00
Microsoft will make an announcement at 12:00 Pacific Time (3:00 pm ET) -- no other details given (29.41)
Microsoft: CNBC reporting MSFT to introduce a preview of Office 2013 -
Yahoo! CNBC reporting announces new CEO
Marissa Mayer Named President and CEO of YHOO. She is expected to resign from Google (GOOG) today.
YHOO saab endale GOOG-ist uue juhi.
Aktsia kauplemas $ 16.15 juures, 2,5% plusspoolel. -
Kass: Thus far, the Microsoft (MSFT) live presentation of Office is a cure for insomnia. :)
