Börsipäev 30. august
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Globaalsed aktsiaturud jätkasid eile hõljumist nullilähedal, kui vast ühe olulisema erandina on uuesti suurema müügisurve alla sattunud Hiina börs. Shanghai Composite langes eile protsendi jagu ning oli täna hommikul enne taastumist veel umbes sama palju madalamale liikunud. Peamiseks põhjuseks ettevõtete nõrgenevad tulemused, millest Bloomberg kirjutab pikemalt siin.
Shanghai Composite
Stoxx 6000 sulgus -0,1% kaotusega, kui tähelepanu püsis peamiselt Merkeli ja Draghi sõnavõttudel. Merkel kohtus Mario Montiga, millele järgnenud pressikonverentsis midagi uut päevavalgele ei tulnud. Monti reformide kohta oli Saksa kantsleril vaid heakskiitvat ja positiivset öelda, ühtlasi kinnitas ta oma vastuseisu anda ESMile pangalitsents põhjendades seda vastuoluga Euroopa Liidu seadustes. Draghi aga õigustas Die Zeit ajalehes avaldatud artiklis, et oma mandaadi täitmiseks tuleb vahest rakendada ebastandardseid meetmeid. Viimaste kohta oodatakse uut informatsiooni juba keskpanga järgmise nädala istungil.
Ühendriikides pakkus 0,1% kõrgemal sulgunud S&P 500 indeksile tuge riigi teise kvartali SKP kasvu korrigeerimine 1,5% pealt 1,7% peale (annualiseeritud). Fedi Beige Book kinnitas, et majandus jätkas juulis ja augusti alguses muddle-through kursil, kui majanduslik aktiivsus paranes tasapisi suuremas osas regioonides ja sektorites. Positiivsemad oldi kinnisvaraarengute osas.
Housing markets across most Districts exhibited signs of improvement, with sales and construction continuing to increase. In general, outlooks were positive, with continued increases in activity expected, although the projected gains were more modest in Boston, Cleveland, and Kansas City.
Tänase päeva olulisematest makrouudistest võiks välja tuua Saksamaa augustikuu tööturustatistika, Itaalia ettevõtete kindlustundeindeksi, USA läinud nädala esmaste töötuabiraha taotluste arvu, USA isiklike kulutuste ja sissetulekute juulikuu muutuse ning Kansas City töötleva tööstuse küsitluse.
10.55 Saksamaa töötuse määr ja töötute arvu muutus (august)
12.00 Itaalia ettevõtete kindlustundeindeks (august)
15.30 USA esmaste töötuabiraha taotluste arv
15.30 USA isiklike sissetulekute ja kulutuste muutus (juuli)
18.00 USA Kansas City Fedi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,3% punases, Euroopa on alustamas 0,5% madalamal. -
Aeg-ajalt olen börsipäeva foorumis välja toonud USA väikeivestorite sentimendi küsitlust. Samamoodi uuritakse Saksa investorite meeleolu Franfurti börsi poolt, kus vaatamata Daxi viimaste kuude tõusule jääb sentiment selgelt negtiivseks ning viitab korrektsiooni ootusele. Pikemalt võib lugeda siit.
29 August 2012. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Will he or won’t he? Is Fed chief Ben Bernanke going to repeat his 2010 performance at the annual central bank summit in Wyoming’s picturesque Jackson Hole by again announcing a round of quantitative easing? Many market participants across the world are counting on it. We suspect, however, the vast majority of domestic German institutional investors are hoping that he won’t. Even in the latest sentiment poll, conducted weekly by Boerse Frankfurt, 47 percent of the panel express a bearish opinion for the DAX. As a result, overall sentiment, as measured by the Cognitrend Bull/Bear-Index, remains firmly in pessimistic territory. It is ever-so-slightly less gloomy than last week’s record, but it remains deep in the basement for the sixth consecutive week. -
NY FED avaldas eile oma kvartaalse raporti USA majapidamiste finantsseisust, mis on kättesaadav selle lingi vahendusel. . Üldiselt jätkavad majapidamised oma võimenduse vähendamist, kui kogu võlakoorma maht alanes esimese kvartaliga võrreldes 53 miljardi dollari võrra 11,38 triljoni dollarini ning on alates 2008.a kolmandast kvartalit vähenenud 1,3 triljoni võrra. üks segment, mis jätkab siiski kasvu, on õppelaenud. Viimase maht suurenes kolme kuuga 10 miljardi dollari võrra 914 miljardi dollarini ning on alates 2008.a sügisest kerkinud ca 300 miljardi dollari võrra.
Ühtlasi on paranemas majapidamiste maksevõimelisus, kuid siiski ligi triljoni dollari ulatuses loetakse võlga lootusetuks. -
Saksamaa tööturustatistika vastas suuresti ootustele
GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE (AUG) AT 9K VERSUS 7K EXPECTED AND 9K PRIOR (REV. HIGHER). UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 6.8%, SAME AS EXPECTED AND PRIOR. -
Itaalia korraldas täna võlakirjaoksjoni, kus vahelduseks olid müügiks just pikema tähtajaga paberid. Lühema otsa puhul oleme näinud tänu EKP kommentaaridele tugevat langust tulusustes, samal ajal aga peegeldab näiteks Itaalia 10a tulususe väike muutus võrreldes eelmise kuu oksjoniga jätkuvat närvilisust.
2,5 miljardi euro eest müüdi 5a võlga, bid to cover 1,46 vs 1,34 eelmine kord (yield 4,73% vs 5,29% eelmine kord)
4,0 miljardi euro eest müüdi 10a võlga, bid to cover 1,42 vs 1,29 eelmine kord (yield 5,82% vs 5,96% eelmine kord).
itaalia 10a yield -
NY Fedilt veel üks huvitav paber, mis kinnitab ametlikumalt levinud arusaama, et lühikeseks müügi keelamisega ei saavutata suurt midagi.
Recent research on the 2008 bans allows us to assess the costs and benefits of short-selling restrictions. The preponderance of evidence suggests that the bans did little to slow the decline in the prices of financial stocks. In addition, the bans produced adverse side effects: Trading costs in equity and options markets increased, and stock and options prices uncoupled.. -
Warren Buffett tähistab täna oma 82. sünnipäeva ning selle puhul on Business Insider pannud kokku valiku tema parimaid tsitaate. Link
"Rule No. 1: never lose money; rule No. 2: don't forget rule No. 1" -
Initial Claims 374K vs 370K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 374K from 372K
Continuing Claims falls to 3.316 mln from 3.321 mln
July Personal Spending +0.4% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus
July Personal Income +0.3% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus -
Gapping up:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: P +15.1% (also upgraded by multiple analysts), FLOW +7.5%, CBK +5.1%, TIVO +4.2% (also SAC Capital Advisors discloses 5.2% stake in 13G filing), CHUY +2.3% (thinly traded), M +1.2%, (light volume), GPS +0.5%.
M&A news: FSR +13.7% (Flagstone Reinsurance to be acquired by Validus Holdings; transaction provides Flagstone shareholders with a 19.4% premium and $8.43 of value per share).
Other news: SRPT +11.1% (reports out highlighting recent success in drug), LYB +4.7% (added to the S&P 500), EXEL +4.1% (announced cancellation of FDA Advisory Committee meeting for cabozantinib), PSTI +4.0% (Pluristem Therapeutics files for orphan drug status with U.S. FDA for use of PLX cells in treatment of Aplastic Anemia), ING +3.1% (BNS to acquire ING Bank of Canada; announced 29 million offering of common shares), G +2% (declares special dividend of $2.24 per share), PPO +1.7% (continued strength following late spike driven by WSJ story on August Volt sales for GM; also Needham comments this morning suggest shares worth at least $42), PSTI +1.5% (files for orphan drug status with U.S. FDA for use of PLX cells in treatment of Aplastic Anemia), WFD +1.1% (announced 5% stock repurchase program), LXK +0.6% (ticking higher, Bloomberg discusses that LXK's valuation may make the company a takeover target; Xerox named as possible buyer).
Analyst comments: GERN +3.7% (initiated with a Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), VC +1.5% (Hearing positive mention at JPMorgan), BCOV +1.2% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James). -
Gapping down:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CIEN -10.3%, VRA -8.1%, OXM -5.1% (light volume), GWAY -2.5%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: HMY -4.9%, BBL -2.7%, BHP -2.3%, RIO -2%, MT -1.3%.
A few CIEN peers are showing early weakness: ALU -1.8%, FNSR -1.4%, JDSU -1.5%, JNPR -1.5%.
Other news: AMPL -31.9% (Ampal-American Israel files Chapter 11 Petition), GENE -5.9% (Genetic Technologies Files Patent Infringement Suit Against Reproductive Genetics Institute Inc. in USA), SHLD -3.9% (to be removed from the S&P 500), BNS -2.7% (to acquire ING Bank of Canada; announced 29 million offering of common shares), TEVA -1% (receives FDA approval for Tbo-filgrastim for the treatment of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia).
Analyst comments: KLAC -2.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna), ERIC -2.1% (Ericsson downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse ), LPX -0.2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank). -
The Jackson Hole Effect
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Aug 30, 2012 | 8:38 AM EDT |
Hope never abandons you; you abandon it. --George Weinberg
Despite extremely slow summer vacation trading, the market has been holding steady for two weeks. There have been plenty of good reasons for things to sell off, but hope that Ben Bernanke may announce another round of quantitative easing at the Jackson Hold conference Friday has provided strong underlying support.
What is interesting about this hope is that the consensus seems to be that a major announcement is unlikely. The general view is that Dr. Bernanke will once again state that the Fed is monitoring data closely and is ready, willing and able to act as needed. Recent economic reports, while not great, have been generally good enough to forestall immediate action and some Fed members have indicated that no decisions have been made yet.
The bears are betting that the market will be disappointed when no QE3 announcement is forthcoming but I question whether it is going to be that easy for the skeptics. The market has been content as long as the Fed states that it is open to action as needed, and recently Dr. Bernanke made it clear that the Fed has plenty of room to implement further accommodation.
As long as the Fed holds out the promise of potential action, it is almost as good as actually taking action. I believe that will help to support the market. The worst thing that could happen is that the economic data continue to improve just enough to prevent the Fed from acting, but are not good enough to signal a strong recovery. If we muddle through, the risk of a selloff is higher.
This is my rather longwinded way of saying that I don't think that Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech is going to be a major turning point. I don't expect the market to suddenly fall apart if he does not announce QE3. There may be some disappointment, but I'm looking for dip buying and underlying support to kick in fast. This market has left many folks on the sidelines and they will be looking for entry points.
What makes this market challenging is the very thin trading and the lack of energy. Technically, the indices are looking OK but seasonal market players may grow skittish and look to cut back, especially if the central bankers remain on hold for a while longer.
I'm prepared for some softness on disappointment over Bernanke, but I'll be watching for quick bounces. If we are going to sell off, today is likely a good day for it as there will be positioning in front of the news. If your thesis is that the market is going to take a hit when Ben Bernanke doesn't act, today is the day to make your move.
We have some early pressure this morning but it is going to be another very light volume day. I'm inclined to see if I can catch an index short for a fast trade, especially since I have so little on my long radar. -
FB on eelturul plusspoole peale kauplemas, sest väidetavalt on Jaffray analüütik Gene Munster (peamiselt tuntud, kui AAPL-i staartanalüütik) aktsia suhtes positiivne.
Facebook: Hearing positive comments at Piper Jaffray (Gene Munster) -
Enne turu sulgumist tuli Avian FSLR-t kaitsma, mis täna on üle 18%:
First Solar sell off overdone - Avian (19.85 -4.35)
Avian notes shares of FSLR are likely trading lower on stories from a Bloomberg story stating that panel deliveries at Agua Caliente project in Arizona have suspended. Firm says there is no news in the Bloomberg headline, yet it casts negative connotations. They have spoken with industry contacts and find no construction issues at the Agua Caliente project. The firm believes modules are being diverted to other projects where cashflows can be received sooner than those associated with the Agua Caliente. They see no additional risk to their 2012 model. -
Arvan ka, et FSLR on 19...20$ juures ostukoht. First Solar on selgelt eraldunud teistest solar sektori ettevõtetest ja ümber orienteerunud lihtlabaselt paneelide (commodity: low margin!) tootmiselt suurte päikeselektrijaamade arendamisele. Selles valdkonnas on nad oma konkurentidest mitmeid aastaid ees. See, et FSLR teenib korralikult kasumit, näitab praegusel keerulisel turul nii mõndagi. USA turu puhul peab aga ka arvestama poliitilise riskiga, sest Romney on avalikult kuulutanud, et kõik muud energialiigid peale fossiilsete ei tasu arendamist. Kuid USA kõrval on järk-järgult avanemas teised suured turud: India (on kuulutanud välja suuri hankeid, et lahendada dekaadide-pikkune energiaprobleem), Jaapan (turg on plahvatusliku arengu alguses, seoses eemaldumisega tuumaenergiast), Saudi Araabia ja Gulf regioon üldiselt (tahab vähendada sõltuvust iseenda naftast), Austraalia (FSLR on võitnud seal juba mõned suured hanked), Brasiilia (täiesti väljaarenemata veel). Kunagine põhiturg Euroopa on marginaliseerunud, kuid projekte arendatakse sealgi. Hiina turg on USA firmadele mõneks ajaks suht suletud (US-Sino trade war).
Silma tasub peal hoida ka Canadian Solaril (CSIQ), kes sisenes eelmisel aastal samuti utility-scale jaamade turule Kanadas ja USAs ja matkib sellega FSLR strateegiat. Sel nädalal avaldas firma mitmeid olulisi uudiseid: üks jaam müüdi, teise kahe arendamist alustati jne. Teisi Hiina firmasid on ka, kes midagi Hiinas arendavad (Golden Dawn vms projektid seal on), kuid marginaalid on seal palju kesisemad, kui pakub Põhja-Ameerika turg.
Samal ajal on huvitav, et CSIQ turuväärtus on ainult 125M $ kanti, olles kordades madalam konkurentidest (TSL, YGE, JASO: kes pole veel jalga utility-scale ukse vahele saanud ja virelevad commodity äris). Nii FSLR, SPWR, TSL, YGE, JASO, STP ja CSIQ kõik toodavad sel aastal igaüks eeldatavalt 2 GW jagu mooduleid.
CSIQ on mõnes mõttes FSLR-ist huvitavamgi: turuväärtus hetkel 15x madalam, samas on CSIQ edukalt kanda kinnitanud Kanada/USA utility scale äris: arendatavate päikesejaamade maht ca 5-6x madalam kui First Solaril. CSIQ paneelide efektiivsus on kõrgem (18-19% vs. 13-14%) ja kui nad suudavad oma EPC-projektijuhtimise know-how FSLR-iga samaväärseks arendada, võiks ettevõtteid võrdsemalt hinnata. Tänu kõrgemale efektiivusele suudab CSIQ konkureerida ka rooftop äris (mis ei ole eriti kasumlik, kuid teatud huvitavad arengud võiksid sealgi toimuda: näiteks Californias on tulekul seadus, mille kohaselt peavad kõik uued hooned olema "solar roof ready").
Just my 2 bets.
