Börsipäev 4. september
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Fookus oli eile suunatud töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusele nii Hiinas kui Euroopas. Mõlemal juhul valmistati aga pettumus. Hiina ametlik PMI langes oodatud 50,0 punkti asemel 49,2 punkti peale ning HSBC oma viitas sarnasele tendentsile.
Eurotsooni lõplik näit korrigeeriti -0,2 punkti võrra 45,1 punkti peale, kui madalamaks osutusid kahe tuumikriigi indeksid (Saksamaa oma revideeriti -0,4 punkti võrra 44,7 punkti peale ja Prantsusmaa oma -0,2 punkti võrra 46,0 punktile). Esimest korda saime teada, milline oli tööstussektori aktiivsus Itaalias ja Hispaanias. Esimese puhul kukkus näit juuli 44,3 punkti pealt 43,6 punktile, samas Hispaanias üllatas jällegi positiivselt, kui augusti töötleva tööstuse PMI kerkis 42,3 punkti pealt 44,0 punktile. Positiivsema poole pealt tõusis Suurbritannia PMI augustis tervelt 4,3 punkti võrra nelja kuu kõrgeimale tasemele ehk 49,5 punkti peale.
Saksamaa töötleva tööstuse PMI (valge), Prantsusmaa (oranž), Itaalia (kollane), eurotsoon (roheline).
Vaatamata suhteliselt nõrkadele küsitlustele suutsid aktsiaturud pidada hästi vastu. Hiina CSI 300 indeks kerkis eile 1,1% ja Stoxx 600 +0,8%, suuresti kuna see kasvatab ootust keskpanga stimuleerivate sammude suhtes.
Selle koha pealt tõdes Draghi eile Euroopa Parlamendi ees, et keskpank on võimeline Euroopa Liidu seaduste kohaselt ostma kuni kolmeaastaseid riigivõlakirju, mis iseenesest vähendab kahtlust valmisoleku suhtes sekkuda võlakirjaturgudele. Pikemaajaliste võlakirjade soetamist seostatakse juba valitsuste finantseerimisena ning oleks vastuolus ELi seadustega. EUR sai sellest veidi tuge ning jõudis dollari suhtes tagasi üle 1,2600 USD piiri ning võlakirjaturgudel tulid yieldid allapoole nii lühemas kui pikemas otsas.
Tulles tänase makrokalendri juurde, siis suurimat huvi pakub ilmselt USA, kus fookuses on augusti lõplik PMI, ISM indeks ja autode müük.
10.00 Hispaania töötus (august)
15.58 USA PMI (august)
17.00 USA ISM (august)
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% kõrgemal, Euroopa on avanemas nulli lähedal. -
Hispaania autonoomsete piirkondades finantseerimisprobleemid on muutunud nõnda kriitiliseks, et Kataloonia vajab enne 5,3 miljardi suuruse finantsabi kättesaamist keskvalitsuse käest kiirlaenu, kuna vastasel korral pole võimalik katta septembri kohustusi.
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Hispaania töötute arv kasvas augustis 38,2 tuhande võrra, olles juulis langenud 27,8 tuhande võrra.EUR/USD ja futuurid pole selle peale väga muutust näidanud.
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Mitmed analüüsimajad on täna alustamas ManU katmist Osta soovitusega (JPM target 17 USD, Jefferies 20 USD, Deutsche 17 USD).
DB: In CY2013, we forecast strong revenue growth of 22% y/y, driven by contracted increases, a renegotiation with Nike, improved team performance and new business. With over half of this growth highly visible at present, we believe shares will appreciate as investors gain confidence in the drivers and mgmt execution provides comfort around the uncertainties, which are largely sustained team performance and control of player costs. Longer term, we expect these same drivers to grow revenue at a 14.7% CAGR through CY2016, where over a third of this growth is highly visible at present.
Still early stages of brand monetization
Currently 63% of MANU’s revenue is directly driven by the team via tiket sales and TV broadcast rights, which vary based on team performance, while remaining revenue relates to brand monetization and represents the bulk of revenue and profit growth. We believe MANU is still in the relatively early stages of reaching its full brand monetization potential, and the high incremental margins (50-80%) of new sponsorship, licensing and other partner agreements is behind our forecast for a 34% EBITDA CAGR through CY2016. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CPB +9.2%, (light volume).
M&A news: NLP +60.6% (National Realty, L.P. receives Going Private proposal of $5.25 per Share), MRX +37.5% and VRX +9.7% (Medicis to be acquired by Valeant Pharma for $44 per share), HEK +15.2% (Heckmann and Power Fuels to merge; HEK plans to pay $125.0 mln in cash and 95.0 mln shares of the common stock).
A few beverage related names showing strength: BUD +3%, DEO +2%, KO +1.1%.
Other news: STEM +15.2% (StemCells reports positive interim data from spinal cord injury trial), QCOR +10.5% ( provided update regarding its Medicaid rebate position with respect to H.P. Acthar Gel), TSEM +8.9% (was chosen by Vishay Intertechnology for high volume manufacturing engagement through 2018), NOK +6.4% (Nokia debuts free music streaming service in the USA), ASTI +3.6% (partners with Silent Falcon UAS Technologies and Bye Aerospace for Solar-powered Unmanned Aircraft Systems), TEF +3.5% (trading higher on light volume; hearing received EU approval of VOD/TEF jv).
Analyst comments: TIVO +6.7% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan), GME +3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), MS +2.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, upgraded to Buy from Outperform at Credit Agricole), MT +1.4% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies ), CAG +1.4% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan), MRVL +1.4% (upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at Nomura), IBM +0.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SFD -4.2%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading modestly lower: GOLD -1.5%, BBL -1.1%, GFI -1.0%, BHP -0.7%.
Select European drug names names showing early weakness: GSK -1.3%, NVS -0.9% (Novartis AG drug higher dose Exelon Patch approved by FDA at for patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease), .
A few coal names are trading lower (Dalmon Rose downgraded BTU ANR and WLT): ACI -2.6%, WLT -1.9%, BTU -1.8%, ANR -0.7%
Other news: DDMG -17.9% (voted to appoint Michael Katzenstein, effective immediately, the Interim Chief Operating Officer), MNKD -12.2% (files for $500 mln mixed securities shelf offering), ALJ -2.6% (Alon USA Energy files registration statement for an IPO of its subsidiary, Alon USA Partners, LP), LYB -2.1% (announces offering of 17.5 mln of ordinary shares by selling shareholders).
Analyst comments: SWKS -1.5% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays), VOD -1.4% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein ), GIS -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan), NVDA -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna). -
Markiti koostatav USA augusti lõplik PMI jääb flash numbrist natuke nõrgemaks
U.S. MARKIT PMI (FINAL) FALLS TO 51.5 IN AUGUST FROM 51.9 PRELIMINARY. 51.9 EXPECTED. -
ISM ja ehitustegevuse kulutused mõlemad alla ootuste:
August ISM Index 49.6 vs 50.0 Briefing.com consensus; July 49.8
July Construction Spending -0.9% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus
