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Börsipäev 10. oktoober

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  • Sentiment USA turgudel kujunes eile võrdlemisi negatiivseks, kui vist rohkem kuu jooksul pole Dow ja S&P 500 nõnda suuri langusi näinud, piirdudes siiski 0,8-1%lise kukkumisega. Nasdaq murdis läbi 50 päeva libisevast keskmisest, ent nagu allolevalt jooniselt näha, siis S&P puhul on sinna veel veidi maad minna.

    S&P 500 (roosa joon - 50 päeva libisev keskmine, roheline joon - 200 päeva libisev keskmine)


    Meeleolu muudab ettevaatlikuks ühest küljest kolmanda kvartali tulemuste hooaeg, mille eel pole ettevõtetel väga palju rõõmustavaid sõnumeid edastada. Eile järelkauplemise ajal suutis Alcoa lüüa analüütikute ootusi, ent kui vaadata aasta baasil muutusi, siis kolmanda kvartali müügitulu langes -9,1% 5,83 miljardi dollarini ja erakorralisi kulusid arvestamata suudeti aktsia kohta teenida 3 senti kasumit vs 15 senti mullu. Lisaks kärbiti alumiiniumi 2012.a globaalse nõudluse kasvu 7% pealt 6% peale.

    Lisaks Alcoale ütles Chevron, et näeb kolmanda kvartali kasumit oluliselt madalamal tasemel võrreldes teise kvartaliga. Mootorite ja jõu ülekannete tootja Cummins aga alandas oma kolmanda kvartali ja kogu majandusaasta ootusi, kuna kliendid on vähendanud paljudel turgudel kapitalikulutusi, sealhulgas on nõudlus vähenenud ka Hiinas.

    Samal ajal aga hoiatab IMF, et globaalne majanduskasv võib tuleval aastal paraneda 3,6%ni, ent Euroopa võlakriis on jätkuvalt suurimaks ohuks, kui 15%lise tõenäosuse juures võib globaalne majanduskasv kukkuda järgmisel aastal ka alla 2%.

    Öösel on aga IMF avaldanud järgmise dokumendi, mille kohaselt hoiatatakse kapitali väljavoolu eest Euroopas, tuues siinsete pankade jaoks kaasa vajaduse müüa oma varasid. IMFi sõnul võivad Euroopa suuremad pangad ilma poliitikute tegutsemiseta olla sunnitud järgmiseks aastaks müüma 2,8 triljoni euro väärtuses varasid, mis on 7% nende kogubilansist (aprillis hinnati selleks mahuks 2,6 triljonit). Kõige mustema stsenaariumi kohaselt võib varade müügi vajadus küündida 4,5 triljoni euroni (aprillis hinnati selleks mahuks 3,8 triljonit eurot), mis survestaks ühtlasi reaalmajandust ja kergitaks tööpuudust.

    Liikudes tänase kalendri juurde, siis makrouudiseid saab olema suhteliselt vähe, kui huvi võiksid pakkuda Prantsusmaa ja Itaalia augustikuu tööstustoodangu muutused. USAs raporteeritakse augusti hulgimüügi varude muutus ja Fedi Beige Book.

    09.45 Prantsusmaa tööstustoodangu muutus (august)
    11.00 Itaalia tööstustoodangu muutus (august)
    17.00 USA hulgimüügi varude muutus (august)
    21.00 Fedi Beige Book

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,1% madalamal, Euroopa on avanemas poole protsendi jagu madalamal.
  • Prantsusmaa augustikuu tööstustoodang üllas oluliselt parema näitajaga, kui aasta baasil kujunes languseks vaid -0,9% vs oodatud -4,2% (juulis -2,8%)
  • Itaalias on tööstustoodang samuti augustis paranemise märke näidanud, kui YoY langustempo aeglustus juuli -7,2% pealt -5,2% peale vs oodatud -9,7%.
  • Huvitav joonis DB vahendusel sellest, kuidas FEDi rahatrüki ringid on stimuleerinud ka kulla investeerimisnõudlust
  • Tegemist ei oleks mingite märkimisväärstete majandust stimuleerivate meetmetega aga väidetavalt on Hiina valitsus plaanimas taas teatud sektorite toetamist läbi subsiidiumite

    China may announce new round of subsidies programme on auto purchases in rural areas, China Securities Journal reported, citing sources, while subsidies on purchases of electrical appliances will be continued and enhanced. The auto purchases subsidies will expand to cover large vehicles according to to report. The subsidies were first implemented after the financial crisis to stimulate domestic consumption..

    Reuters aga kirjutab, et importijatele plaanitakse pakkuda ligi 400 miljardi dollari (310 mld EUR) ulatuses laenusubsiidiumeid.

    China will offer 2.5 billion yuan ($398 million) in loan subsidies to importers for purchases of advanced technological equipment, raw materials and other components, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.
  • Tulles korra tagasi Prantsusmaa augustikuu töötleva tööstuse toodangu juurde (kasv YoY -0,4% vs oodatud -4,0%), kõrvutasin seda alloleval joonisel töötleva tööstuse PMI indeksiga, mis näitas augustis samuti paranemist. Aga sellele eelnevatel kuudel on näha, et trend reaalmajanduses on olnud positiivsem kui seda peegeldab soft data. Morgan Stanley oli ka tänase numbri osas veidi üllatunud ning tõdeb, et kui tööstustoodang suudaks septembris püsida stabiilsena, siis näitaks majandus kolmandas kvartalis tõenäoliselt kasvu vastupidiselt stagnatsioonile, mida MS ootab. Siiski jäädakse hoolimata arvatust positiivsemast tööstustoodangu ja töötleva tööstuse toodangu muutusest ettevaatlikuks, kuna kindlustunde küsitlus jääb alla ajaloolise keskmise ja PMI oli septembris ikka võrdlemisi kole.

    Looking at the details, the acceleration in industrial production in August was driven by a sharp increase in manufacturing activity (+1.8%M). In particular, output in transport and equipment surged 6.5%M, after 3.9%M in July.
    Overall, despite today’s upside surprise, we think activity in the manufacturing sector remains very weak in France. The latest leading indicators showed that business conditions in the manufacturing sector in France, and in the eurozone more broadly, have deteriorated meaningfully in September and are likely to continue to lose steam in the near term. The INSEE survey in the manufacturing sector remains stuck well below its long-term average, suggesting a continued loss of momentum in the coming months. The manufacturing PMI, which is more a coincident indicator of industrial activity, signalled a deterioration of activity in the sector in September as well. Looking ahead, we expect industrial activity to remain subdued, amid the deteriorating economic outlook of the whole euro-area in general, tighter financing conditions and a restrictive fiscal policy that should hamper domestic demand.


    Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse toodangu muutus YoY (valge joon) ja töötleva tööstuse PMI (oranž)
  • Morgan Stanley kohtus Hiina valitsusele autoturu osas nõu andva asutuse (State Information Center - CEI) ja VW ja Audi esindajatega, et hoomata paremini, millises seisus kohalik autoturg on. Kokkuvõttes järeldatakse, et edasimüüjate varud on teisel poolaastal hakanud kasvama ja see võib kujuneda murekohaks. Samas luksuslikumate masinate puhul mõnda aega kummitanud hinnasurve näib olevat stabiliseerunud.

    High inventory prompts questions on volume outlook. With 54 inventory days of sales at the dealers (48 for foreign brands and 73 for local OEMs, up from 36 and 68 respectively, in 1H12) and 9% sales growth YTD, CEI sees some downside risks to the 10% growth expectations for 2012 and 13 market volumes – which however remain its base case.

    Premium pricing stabilizing, volume growth solid. CEI reiterated its 20% growth assumption for the
    premium segment in 2012 and '13 and stressed that pricing has partially recovered from 1H trough. As
    analyzed in our recent note ‘The Battle for Inland Volumes Begins’ (24-Sep), we agree with CEI’s views
    on volume growth opportunities for premium cars, thanks to increasing penetration of dealer networks in
    inland provinces. However, we are more pessimistic then CEI and believe the pricing recovery is more transitional than structural, as increasing competition in tier 3-4 cities and dealers’ demands for higher margins on new car business will drive pricing and margins down, in our view.
  • Finantssektori töökohtade kaotamine on Euroopas küll vähenema hakanud, kuid jätkuvalt jääb töökohti vähemaks. Pictet sõnul on 2011. aasta esimese 9 kuu joksul kaotatud Euroopast 76 654 töökohta, 2012. aasta esimese 9 kuu jooksul on Euroopast kaotatud täiendavalt 33 437 töökohta.
  • Iganädalaselt olen teinud ülevaate insaiderite tehingutest Euroopa börsidel. Vickers Weekly Insider raporti kohaselt on teada, millised valitsevad meeleolud ka USA börsidel ning paraku ei ole pilt teisel pool Atlandit kuigi palju parem. Nimelt kerkis insaiderite poolt müüdud aktsiate suhe ostetud aktsiate kogusesse septembri 3,8 pealt 5,6 peale oktoobri alguses, kusjuures tõusu tekitas just Nasdaqil noteeritud aktsiate müügihuvi kasv, kuna NYSE-l see suhe isegi alanes veidi 5,97 pealt 5,13 peale. Kuna ajalooline keskmine on kaks ühele või siis 2,5 ühele, siis näitab praegune suhe, et insaiderid on selgelt ettevaatlikumad oma äride tuleviku suhtes ja annab turu jaoks karuse signaali.
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FOE -14%, (revises earnings guidance and expects impairment charges; exploring strategic options for solar pastes business, downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at First Analysis), BLDP -9.4% (thinly traded), ESE -6.2% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham), HELE -6.1%, CMI -4.9%, AVT -4.5% (light volume), CVX -1.8%, AA -0.8%.

    A few CMI peers are under pressure: NAV -3%, JOY -1.6%, PCAR -1.4%, CAT -1.2%, DE -0.9%

    Other news: CWH -7.9% (announced new quarterly Common Share dividend rate of $0.25/share, reduction from the quarterly dividend rate of $0.50/share), LXP -4.2% (commenced an underwritten registered public offering of 15,000,000 common shares), HRB -3.5% (discloses that Fed capital reserve requirements may restrict its capital allocation; exploring alternatives to cease being a savings and loan holding company), VRNG -3.1% (continuing to pullback), DYN -2.4% (still checking), MRC -2.2% (announces shelf registration statement on behalf of selling shareholder), STZ -0.8% (following late sell-off on antitrust speculation for AB InBev and Modelo deal), VTNC -0.6% (commented on the Schedule 13D filings made by Clarke Inc. with respect to its shareholdings in Vitran).

    Analyst comments: MNST -3.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus ), SNN -2.3% (ticking lower, initiated with a Sell at Societe Generale), KGC -2.1% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), VIAB -1.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein), SAP -1.4% ( downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays), JCI -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), FITB -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), AEO -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray), HD -0.7% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer based on valuation).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MG +4.8% (light volume), YUM +3.8% (also upgraded to Buy from Outperform at Credit Agricole), GLUU +3%, COST +2.4%, FDX +2%, (announces programs targeting $1.7 bln in annual profit improvement by end of Fiscal 2016; reaffirms Q2 and FY guidance).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: HMY +2.4%, MT +1.1%, AG +0.6%, RIO +0.4%, .

    Other news: CLNT +18.1% (receives $2.2 mln purchase orders for Airflow Dyeing Machines), AUQ +10.6% (expands Flame & Moth deposit: reports grades up to 71 ounces per ton silver over 2.9 meters, mineralized intervals to 7.4 meters grading 25.7 ounces per ton silver, and accompanying gold), GEVO +2% (awarded patent covering low-cost technology that removes isobutanol from fermentation broth).

    Analyst comments: QLIK +3.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), RLJ +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital), ANF +1.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), RL +1% (Polo Ralph Lauren upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray ), QCOM +0.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas), AUY +0.4% (initiated with a Overweight at Morgan Stanley)
  • OCZ, mida mõned nädalad tagasi peeti võimalikuks ülevõtukandidaadiks, andis täna kasumihoiatuse ja sellest tulenevalt on aktsia ka eelturul vabalanguses.
    OCZ Tech sees Q2 rev materially lower than $110-120 mln guidance vs $115.40 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; delays 10-Q filing; call at 10:00 am

    OCZ kaupleb hetkel 43% miinuspoolel ($ 1,80)
  • Trade With the Trend
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Oct 10, 2012 | 8:28 AM EDT | 2

    Trends, like horses, are easier to ride in the direction they are going. --John Naisbitt

    The secret to making money in the stock market can be summed up in one very simple phrase: trade with the trend. When the market is trending up, embrace it and stay heavily invested. When the market is trending down, move to cash and be selective with any new buying.

    That is a very broad generalization and is overly simplistic, but there is no disputing the basic theory. Wall Street doesn't have too much trouble when we are trending up but much of Wall Street is pathologically driven to fight downtrending markets. Typically, a market breakdown is initially denied as some sort of aberration that is unjustified and will be short lived. If the market continues to sink, the focus turns to predicting the exact moment when things will turn and go straight back up and, of course, that is predicted to occur immediately.

    If traditional Wall Street had its way, you would never sell any stocks anyway. They want to convince you that market timing is futile and that you should hold good stocks no matter what the market is doing. They want to make sure you stay in the market no matter what. The primary goal of Wall Street is to gather more capital rather than to make you money.

    To understand how important it is to respect the market trend, just consider is how unproductive it is to have to recoup losses. Nothing will help you produce better results than keeping your portfolio as close to its highs as possible at all times.

    If you sit passively and suffer a 20% loss, you will then need a gain of 25% just to return to even. The bigger your loss the more pronounced is the gain needed to breakeven. If you can reduce the amount of the drawdown, you greatly increase your chances of good gains when the trend is back in your favor.

    What makes respecting the overall market tend so hard for many market players is that they can't bring themselves to step aside when market conditions turn down. They want to hold on to some favorite stocks or rush in and scoop up all those things that the media declare are now great values. They don't stay patient and let weakness play out.

    Far too many market players are obsessed with pinpointing the exact moment that the market turns. The media will talk about it endlessly, and it's practically a sport among market pundits to make big, bold calls about market direction.

    It really isn't that important that you be precise in your timing. What is important is recognizing when a trend is in place and respecting it.

    I bring this topic up this morning because there is hard evidence that the market trend is turning down, so a high level of caution is required. The Nasdaq in particular is in poor shape as it cracks key support and could easily head below 3000 if selling picks up.

    There are going to be many folks who will tell us not to worry about this market, but all you have to do is look at the indices to see that the uptrend we enjoyed since May is now struggling. If we take some cautionary measures and avoid being heavily long during a downtrend, we will be in great shape when conditions improve.
  • ADTN, laskis Q3 peale kasumihoiatuse natuke aega tagasi. Hoiatas ka 4, lisaks astuvad viimasedki analüütikud üksteise järgi holdi või sealt edasi selli peale, lisaks on ka turg nõrk. Stock on shuteliselt vähe pihta saanud kogu selle jama peale (nojah, eks pole enam mingi uudis ja üllatus, et pangetab ja üks dg ees või taga seal lõpus ei ole ka mingi näitaja, aga siiski).
    Täna siis T. Rowe Price reports 13.1% passive stake in Adtran

    Ootasin midagi sellist, seal on bid täitsa tuntav olnud :)
  • ymeramees
    ADTN, laskis Q3 peale kasumihoiatuse natuke aega tagasi. Hoiatas ka 4, lisaks astuvad viimasedki analüütikud üksteise järgi holdi või sealt edasi selli peale, lisaks on ka turg nõrk. Stock on shuteliselt vähe pihta saanud kogu selle jama peale (nojah, eks pole enam mingi uudis ja üllatus, et pangetab ja üks dg ees või taga seal lõpus ei ole ka mingi näitaja, aga siiski).
    Täna siis T. Rowe Price reports 13.1% passive stake in Adtran

    Ootasin midagi sellist, seal on bid täitsa tuntav olnud :)


    võtsin eile sinna putid aga no ei miskit

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