Börsipäev 19. oktoober
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Indeksid liikusid globaalsetel aktsiaturgudel üsna erinevate meeleolude vallas. Hiina oodatust parem septembri majandusstatistika toetas Aasia turgusid, samas kui Euroopa lõpetas üsna nulli lähedal ja USA kerges miinuses.
Hispaania riigivõlakirjade intressid jätkasid langust pärast oodatust edukamat oksjonit, mille raames suutis riik müüa soovitust pisut enam ehk 4,6 miljardi euro väärtuses võlakirju ja seda varasemast tugevama nõudluse juures. Samal ajal aga teatas riigi keskpank, et halbade laenude maht oli augustis kasvanud 10,5%ni tervest laenuportfellist ehk 178,6 miljardi euroni, mis oli uus ajalooline rekord ja kõrgem võrreldes juuli 10,1%ga.
Suurbritannias jätkub oodatust parem makrouudiste sadu, kui hiljuti teatatud positiivse tööjõuraporti järel näitas jaemüük septembris 0,6% kasvu võrreldes augustiga, mis osutus prognoositust kaks korda paremaks. Võttes arvesse ka Inglise keskpanga oktoobri kohtumise protokolli, siis kõik see on pannud analüütikuid novembri istungi tulemuse prognoosimises keerulisse positsiooni. Üha rohkem on hakatud arvama, et uus rahatrüki ring polegi enam nii kindel. Enne seda mahub kalendrisse siiski veel palju olulist infot, eeskätt kolmanda kvartali SKP ja oktoobri PMI, mis peaksid aitama teha parema järelduse vajadusest laiendada võlakirjade ostuprogrammi.
Ühendriikides tõmbas turgusid madalamale tehnoloogiasektor, kui järelkauplemise ajal oma majandustulemused avaldama pidanud Google tegi seda kogemata regulaarse kauplemise ajal, üllatades ka prognoositust kehvemate numbritega, mis saatis aktsia 8% madalamale.
USA makro osutus erisuguseks. Töötu abiraha taotluste arv kerkis 46K võrra 388K peale, kui seekord suudeti andmeid koguda kõikidest osariikidest. Tegu oli aga siiski oodatust suurema numbriga (analüütikute ootus 360K). Philadelphia Fedi töötleva tööstuse indeks kerkis küll 7,6 punkti võrra 5,7 punkti peale oktoobris, ent uute tellimuste ja tööhõive indeksid näitasid küsitluse raames mõlemad langust. Samuti kahanes järgneva kuue kuu ootuste indeks pea poole võrra 41,2 punktilt 21,6 punktile. Juhtivate indikaatorite indeks kerkis aga kuu baasil 0,6%, mida oli oodatud 0,2%st selgelt rohkem, ent septembri muutus revideeriti -0,1% pealt -0,4%le.
Varaste hommikutundideni kestnud ELi tippkohtumisel suudeti kokku leppida eurotsooni pankade järelvalve asutuse ülesseadmise ajakavas (juriidiline raamistik peaks paika saama selle aasta lõpuks), kuid selgust ei saanud endiselt küsimus, millal võib ESM hakata pankasid otse kapitaliseerima. Tõenäoliselt ei saa see juhtuda enne järgmise aasta teist poolt, kuna pankade järelvalve loomine on üks eeldustest ning Mario Draghi sõnul võib selleks kuluda 6-12 kuud.
Tulles tänase päeva juurde, siis võib edasi kestva ELi kohtumisega seoses meediast läbi joosta täiendavaid infokilde, mida turuosalised jälgivad. Makro poolel on aga uudiseid Euroopas ja USAs suhteliselt vähe, kui Itaalia raporteerib augusti tehaste tellimuste muutuse ja Ühendriikides teatatakse septembri olemasolevate majade müük. Oma kvartaalsed numbrid avaldavad enne USA turgude avanemist Baker Hughes, General Electric, Honeywell, McDonald’s, Schlumberger.
11.00 Itaalia tehaste tellimuste muutus (august)
17.00 USA olemasolevate majade müük (september)
USA indeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas nulli lähedal, Euroopa on avanemas -0,3% madalamal. -
Citi makromajandusindikaatorite üllatusindeks on jätkanud pranemist nii eurotsoonis (oranž) kui ka USAs (valge)
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Tulemust tabel on taas uuendatud (link) ning tendents kipub siiani olema suhteliselt sarnane teisele kvartalile. Deutsche toob välja, et turukapitalisatsiooni põhjal on 27% S&P 500 ettevõtetest oma numbrid välja hõiganud ning 73% on suutnud EPSi osas ootust lüüa, samal ajal on aga trend müügitulu osas nõrgem, kui seal on ületajate osakaal 41%.Euroopas on aga suhe vastupidine, kuid siin on raporteerinud ainult 21 Stoxx 600 ettevõttest.
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Täna möödub 25. aastat mustast esmaspäevast, mil aktsiaturud tegid globaalselt läbi suuri kukkumisi, Dow näiteks -22,6%. Tänaseni on lõpuni selgusetu see, mis oli põhjuseks. Art Cashini meenutus tollest päevast on huvitav lugemine. Link
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Itaalia tehaste tellimuste langus kiirenes uuesti augustis, ulatudes aasta baasil -9,0%ni vs -4,9% juulis.
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25 aastat tagasi olime meie veel sotsialismuses ja enamus ei saanud sellest võõrast murest üldse aru. Meie teadvusse hakkasid jõudma hilisemad börsikrahid.
Millal kirjutati või tõlgiti uuema aja eesti keelne investeerimise või majandusalane raamat? Mis aastal hakati kõrgkoolis tänapäevaselt turumajandust õpetama? -
General Electric jääb ootustele pisut alla
General Electric prelim $0.36 vs $0.37 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; other ests at $0.36; revs $36.35 bln vs $36.97 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
McDondald's on pihta saamas (-2,5%), kuna Q3 eps veidi alla ootuste ja oktoobri võrreldavate poodide müük siiani negatiivne
McDonald's Oct comps trending negative (Q3: +1.9%)
McDonald's prelim $1.43 vs $1.47 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $7.15 bln vs $7.15 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
We expect near-term top- and bottom-line growth to remain pressured as we focus on driving guest traffic and market share by leveraging our strategies and competitive advantages in response to the global economic, operating and competitive challenges. As we begin fourth quarter, October's global comparable sales are currently trending negative." -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RVBD +10.2%, SNDK +6.6%, LSCC +5.4%, CALL +5.1%, NCR +4%, COF +3.5%, RMBS +3.1%, RHI +2.6%, GOOG +0.7% (earnings conf call after the close), .
M&A news: PCS +1.1% (continued M&A speculation, SoftBank CEO said he has not ruled out bid for PCS, according to reports).
Other news: ISIS +6% (ISIS Pharm and Sanofi (SNY) confirm FDA Advisory Committee recommended Kynamro for Homozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia), OEH +2.3% (confirms it has received an unsolicited letter from The Indian Hotels Company and others to acquire all outstanding shares of Orient-Express Hotels), FFIV +2% (following RVBD results), GOLD +1.3% (still checking), TKR +1.1%and SE +0.6% (positive mention on MadMoney), .
Analyst comments: HBAN +1.5% (upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at FBR Capital) -
Market Caught Between Two Scenarios
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Oct 19, 2012 | 7:53 AM
"It was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way." -- Charles Dickens, "A Tale of Two Cities"
By most measures earnings season has been a disappointment so far. We have had a number of misses from key stocks such as Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM), Chipotle (CMG) and Intel (INTC) and there haven't been any stunningly positive reports like there usually are.
What is surprising is that the S&P500 and DJIA have held up so well so far. The senior indices are being helped by strength in financials and homebuilding-related names and have been able to ignore the carnage in the technology sector so far.
Another thing that has been helping the indices is optimism that Europe is making progress with its sovereign debt issues. For some reason, the market is extra anxious that Spain admit that it needs help and asks for a bailout. The hope has kept a bid under the market and it is very likely we will see a burst of buying when the formal bailout is finally announced. It is doubtful that the need for a bailout is a good thing in the long run, but in the perverse world of central banking the opportunity to print more money and buy even more bonds is a good thing.
The market has also been helped recently by some better economic news, particularly the housing starts data and the jobs news. But the weekly claims report on Thursday stirred up some questions about how much improvement there really is in jobs. The economic data does have some bright spots, but there are still plenty of negatives as well, which market has shunted aside over the past week or so.
The big issue we face right now is whether this dismal earnings season is going to take a further toll on the market. Going into the reports expectations were already quite low, but the news in the technology area is even worse than what most had expected.
We really have two very different-looking markets right now. The weakness in the technology group is being mainly reflected in the Nasdaq, while the macroeconomic optimism and strength in the financials is being reflected in the S&P 500.
Technically, the Nasdaq broke down much harder from its September highs and is now looking like it has a classic failed bounce at the 50-day simple moving average. It is still above the lows of last week, but that level is likely to be tested and the danger of a lower low and a continuation of the downtrend looks likely.
The S&P 500 looks much healthier. It bounced off support at the 50-day simple moving average and is very close to testing the closing highs it hit in September. It is just a very small amount off its highs and is in pretty good shape for a breakout move.
It is two very different pictures and usually that doesn't last for long in the market. Either the technology sector weakness will spread to the broader market or the strength in the S&P 500 will put a bid under the Nasdaq and help improve that technical picture.
It is a very confusing picture. There is no question that earnings are poor and that is reflective of some deeper problems but, on the other hand, it has been the macro conditions that have driven this market for so long and we all know how dangerous it is to fight the central bankers and their printing presses.
I've been quite cautious lately and have missed some upside as a result, but the action in the majority of individual stocks I follow just doesn't support much buying at this point. We'll see what the market does as it digests GOOG and some other negatives today, but it is going to be tougher to find some positive catalysts. -
Gapping down:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PXLW -21.3%, MRVL -13.5%, (Marvell announces that Clyde Hosein has resigned as chief financial officer to pursue other opportunities), CMG -12.2%, PH -9.5%, FHN -7%, CCC -5.5%, ETFC -4.5%, BHI -4.4%, ACTG -4.1%, MIG -3.7% (light volume), FLEX -3.1%, GE -2.5%, MSFT -2%, MCD -2%, IR -0.4%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: DB -2.7%, BCS -2.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity), CS -1.9%, ING -1.4%, .
Select QSR/restaurant names showing early weakness following CMG/MCD results: PNRA -1.9%, BWLD -1.1%, DRI -0.2%.
Other news: CBLI -13.3% (announces proposed public offering of common stock and warrants; size not disclosed), VOC -9.3% (announces trust quarterly distribution), CPNO -4.1% (announces 6 mln unit offering), VVUS -0.6% (receives formal decision from CHMP: the CHMP recommended against approval as expected), SBUX -0.5% (following CMG results, also BKW confirmed launch specialty coffees with NESCAFE MILANO by Nestle Professional), CEF -0.3% (filed for offering of US$1 bln Class A non-voting, fully participating shares).
Analyst comments: GNK -4.5% (Genco Shipping & Trading downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank), -
CMG, mis eile õhtul teatas üsna keskpärastest tulemustest ning kesistest väljavaadetest on eelturul kauplemas ligi 12% miinuspoolel. Teatavasti ütles oma lühikeste aktsiapositisooonide poolest kuulus David Einhorn mõned nädalad tagasi, et on sihikule võtnud just CMG. Seems that Einhorn has nailed it again.
Täna on ka mitmed analüüsimajad CMG hinnasihte kärpimas.
Chipotle Mexican Grill tgt cut to $215 from $305 at Jefferies, also cut to $270 from $350 at Wedbush - following earnings -
Nelli Janson
CMG, mis eile õhtul teatas üsna keskpärastest tulemustest ning kesistest väljavaadetest on eelturul kauplemas ligi 12% miinuspoolel. Teatavasti ütles oma lühikeste aktsiapositisooonide poolest kuulus David Einhorn mõned nädalad tagasi, et on sihikule võtnud just CMG. Seems that Einhorn has nailed it again.
Täna on ka mitmed analüüsimajad CMG hinnasihte kärpimas.
Chipotle Mexican Grill tgt cut to $215 from $305 at Jefferies, also cut to $270 from $350 at Wedbush - following earnings
$ 215 peaks olema ka street low. -
September Existing Home Sales 4.75 mln vs 4.70 mln Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 4.83 mln from 4.82 mln
