Börsipäev 25. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Aktsiaturud näitasid pärast viimaste päevade langust mõningast stabiliseerumist eile vaatamata sellele, et Euroopa makro jäi ootustele alla. Stoxx 600 indeks sulgus 0,4% kõrgemal, S&P 500 piirdus -0,3% kaotusega.
Eurotsooni teenindussektori ja töötleva tööstuse aktiivsust mõõtev PMI indeks langes oktoobris 0,3 punkti võrra uuele madalaimale tasemele 45,8 punktile (alates 2009.a juunist), vastupidiselt analüütikute konsensuslikule ootusele, mille kohaselt oleks kombineeritud PMI pidanud kerkima 0,4 punkti võrra 46,5 punkti peale. Teenindussektori aktiivsus paranes, samal ajal aga langes töötleva tööstuse indeks 0,8 punkti võrra 45,3 punktile (oodati 46,5 punkti). Nii Morgan Stanley kui Deutsche usuvad, et kui PMI indeksid peaksid praegusel tasemel stabiliseeruma, kujuneks eurotsooni neljanda kvartali SKP QoQ muutuseks -0,4% kuni -0,6%, mida on rohkem kui hetkel konsensus ootab. Tähelepanu tahaks siiski juhtida sellele, et hard data (eriti tööstustoodang) on olnud märksa parem kui küsitlused ja kokkuvõttes on see ikkagi reaalne majandusstatistika, mis loeb. Seega enne kui hakatakse tegema korrektuure SKP ootustes, siis arvatavasti oodatakse ära septembrikuu makro, et vaadata kas divergents püsib.
Saksamaa ettevõtete kindlustunnet kajastavad IFO indeksid kujunesid oktoobris samuti arvatust nõrgemaks. Jooksva olukorra indeks kukkus 3 punkti võrra 107,3 punktile, samas järgmise kuue kuu väljavaate hinnangut kajastav indeks püsis stabiilsena 93,2 punkti peal (prognoositi 93,6 punkti). Õhtupoolikul avaldas Prantsusmaa septembrikuu tööturustatistika, mille kohaselt oli uute töötute arv turu ootustest kaks korda kõrgem ehk 46,9K (augustis 23,9K). Kokku on töötute armee kasvanud 3,058 miljoni inimeseni vs 2,78 miljonit aasta tagasi.
FOMC oktoobrikuu kohtumine üllatusi ei pakkunud. Otsustati hoida intressimäärasid madalal tasemel jätkuvalt kuni 2015.a keskpaigani ning samuti jäeti QE programmi maht samaks (40 miljardit dollarit kuus). Uut informatsiooni ei pakkunud ka kommentaar majanduse kohta, mille kohaselt on aktiivsus jätkanud mõõdukat kasvu viimastel kuudel. Kinnisvarasektori ja jaemüügi paranemine viimastel kuudel muutsid keelekasutuse selle koha pealt pisut optimistlikumaks, kuid tööturu paranemine sujub nende arvates endiselt aeglaselt. Oktoobri kohtumise protokoll avaldatakse novembri keskel, kus tuuakse välja detailsem arutelu ning võimalik, et kajastatakse ka arvamusi, mida teha edasi kui operation twist detsembris ära lõppeb. Osad arvavad, et selle võrra suurendatakse QE3 programmi kuist mahtu 85 miljardi dollarini.
USA uute majade müük kerkis septembris annualiseeritult 389K peale võrreldes augusti 368K-ga, mis kujunes oodatud 385K-st pisut paremaks. Markiti koostatav USA töötleva tööstuse PMI paranes oktoobris 0,2 punkti võrra 51,3 punktini, kuid jäi siiski alla konsensuse oodatud 51,5 punktile.
Tulles tänase kalendri juurde, siis Euroopast võiks suuremat huvi pakkuda Suurbritannia kolmanda kvartali SKP avaldamine, USA poolel aga möödunud nädala töötu abiraha taotluste arv, septembri kestvuskaupade tellimuste muutus ja eelmisel kuul pooleliolnud kinnisvaratehingute muutus. Üle 50 S&P 500 ettevõtte raporteerib oma majandustulemused täna, sealhulgas Apple ja Amazon järelkauplemise ajal.
11.00 Eurotsooni laenustatistika (september)
11.00 Itaalia jaemüük (august)
11.30 Suurbritannia kolmanda kvartali SKP
15.30 USA esmaste töötu abiraha taotluste arv
15.30 USA kestvuskaupade tellimused (september)
17.00 USA pooleliolnud kinnisvaratehingute muutus (september)
18.00 USA Kansas City Fedi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (oktoober)
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,3% plusspoolel, Euroopa on alustamas -0,2% punases. -
Suurbritannia majandus kasvas kolmandas kvartalis tänu olümpiale 1,0% võrreldes teise kvartaliga, mis oli oodatud 0,6%st rohkem. Aasta baasil jäi SKP muutumatuks vs oodatud -0,5%
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FT kirjutab, et ka Jaapan on ise seismas silmitsi fiskaalkuristikuga. Nimelt on opositsioon blokeerimas seadust, mis võimaldaks valitsusel laenata 479 miljardit dollarit, et finantseerida tänavust eelarvepuudujääki, nõudes omaltpoolt erakorraliste valimiste väljakuulutamist. Võimul olev demokraatlik partei aga jääks küsitluste põhjal kaotajaks ja peaminister ei sooviks seda väga teha. Jaapani 10a võlakirja yield pole väga reaktsiooni näitamas, aga pikema 20a yield on selgelt kerget närvilisust peegeldamas.
The government says it has enough cash to last until the end of November, without passage of the bill. As part of its efforts to rein in spending, the government has delayed Y5tn public spending including regular payments to the country’s regions, while prefectures are covering budget shortfalls by bringing forward their own bond issuances. .
Jaapani 20a võlakirja tulusus -
Gapping down:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DEXO -13%, CROX -11.7% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee), FFIV -11.1%, LOGI -9.4%, TSCO -6.5%, CLF -6.5%, PDH -6.3% (thinly traded), BBY -6% (announces leadership changes to U.S. business: senior-most layer of U.S. operation being removed), FIO -5.9%, WRLD -5.6%, TER -5.3%, TRN -4.4%, TLAB -4.1% (light volume), SYNC -2.6%, UA -2.4%, SAN -1.1%, POT -1.1%, OFG -0.7% (announces the offering of 4,390,243 shares of common stock).
Other news: SPR -8.1% (recognizes third quarter charges for certain new programs; announces settlement of severe weather related insurance claim), OREX -3.6% (Orexigen Therapeutics announces public offering of common stock, size not disclosed), DHR -3.3% (announces sale of stock by Steven M. Rales), EXL -3.2% (Excel Trust announces public follow-on offering of 8.5 mln shares of common stock), FTE -2.6% (still checking).
Analyst comments: TQNT -3.4% (TriQuint downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Lazard Capital), GWAY -2.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), FTI -0.8% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman, upgraded at Jefferies) -
Gapping up:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ZNGA +17.9% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham), ANGI +13.3% (also upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Barrington), SYMC +10.5%, INFN +9.6%, AKAM +8.6%, SKX +5.7%, BVSN +5.3% (thinly traded), LOGM +5.2%, (light volume), UN +4.9%, SWI +4.1%, CS +3.9%, (light volume), WYNN +3.8%, RYL +3.4%, BIIB +2.8%, IMAX +2.7%, (light volume), DNKN +2.4%, CAKE +2.3%, SNY +2.3%, SHPG +2.3%, FAF +2.2% (light volume), EGHT +2% (light volume), AET +2%, CDNS +1.9% (light volume), AEM +1.9%, CTXS +1.8%, COP +1.5%, PG +0.8%.
M&A news: PSSI +32.7% (PSS World Med bought by MCK for $29/share in cash).
Select financial related names showing strength: DB +2.1%, HBC +1.9%, ING +1.1%, BAC +1%.
Metals/mining stocks trading higher: SVM +3.8%, IAG +3.2%, GOLD +2.8%, HL +2.7%, VALE +2.6%, BBL +2.5%, SLW +2%, ABX +1.9%, HMY +1.9%, GDX +1.5%, .
Other news: SVU +2.7% (continued strength), MGM +2% and LVS +1.6% (following WYNN results), NPSP +1% (positive mention on MadMoney), BA +0.8% (Barron's profiles positive view on Boeing), JAH +0.3% (positive mention on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: VRML +15.2% (Vermillion upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Ladenburg), CIEN +2.7% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital) -
Continuing Claims falls to 3.254 mln from 3.256 mln
September Durable Orders +9.9% vs +8.0% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to -13.1% from -13.2%
September Durable Orders ex-trans +2.0% vs +1.0% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to -2.1% from -1.6%
Initial Claims 369K vs 375K Briefing.com consenus; Prior revised to 392K from 388K -
Kui võtta kapitalikulustest maha nii riigikaitse kui lennutööstuse, et kajastada paremini ettevõtete investeeringuid, siis trend on ikka suhteliselt nõrk.
USD CAP GOODS ORDERS NON-DEFENSE ex AIR (MoM) (SEP) 0.0% vs +0.8% expected, from +0.2% (revised from +1.1%).
USD CAP GOODS SHIP NON-DEFENSE ex AIR (MoM) (SEP) -0.3% vs +0.8% expected, from -1.2% (revised from -0.9%). -
Morgan Stanley usub, et täna avaldatud UK kolmanda kvartali SKP muutus oli küll oodatust positiivsem, kuid seal oli mitmeid ühekordseid tegureid ja tegelik QoQ kasv võis olla 0,3%. Siiski see suurendab tõenäosust, et Inglise keskpank ei pruugi novembri kohtumisel uuele rahatrüki ringile minna, eriti kuna osad liikmed viimase protokolli kohaselt selle selle vajadust juba toona küsimärgi alla seadsid.
But it isn’t as good as it looks: There are a number of special (temporary) factors partly behind the rise,
meaning that underlying growth remains uninspiring, although now positive. These include 3Q’s extra working day (given the Queen’s Jubilee in June) and the Olympics (the ONS estimates a 0.2pp effect from ticket sales alone). If the BoE estimate of a 0.5pp drag in 2Q from special factors was right (we had thought this was overdoing it a bit), underlying growth in 3Q could be somewhere around 0.3%Q.
MPC more likely to pause in November than to do more QE: This is still likely to be a close call (and we still
have two weeks’ data to go until the meeting), but given today’s stronger than expected GDP figure and commentary from BoE speakers this week we now think that the MPC will pause in November. However, we do not think that we will have seen the last of QE and would expect a restart in coming months. -
Euroopa Keskpanga poolt avaldatud septembrikuu rahapakkumise statistika näitas, et pangad on septembris olnud netos riigivõlakirjade ostjad - esimest korda alates juunist. Kõige suuremad ostjad olid Prantsusmaa, Saksamaa, Hispaania ja Itaalia pangad.
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Cultivate a Flexible Mindset
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Oct 25, 2012 | 8:15 AM
He who has so little knowledge of human nature as to seek happiness by changing anything but his own disposition will waste his life in fruitless efforts. --Samuel Johnson
By just about any measure, the market has been acting poorly lately. Bounces are failing, key technical support levels have been taken out and many individual stocks have been hit hard on poor earnings and guidance.
I've been writing about how we need to respect the fact that the trend is downward and not be too quick to anticipate a better market. We'll have tradable bounces and countertrend moves, but we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the market formed a top and is now struggling with weak action.
Regardless of what is going on in the market the key to navigating it effectively is cultivating the right mindset. Far too many market players spend their time fighting and arguing with the action rather than finding ways to exploit it. If you are having difficulty with the market, it is usually due in large part to not being in tune with its true character.
What traditional Wall Street and many pundits in the media want you to do is to ignore poor action and to keep anticipating a big rally. That is the sort of stuff that attracts attention and they are very good at sucking in buyers who think they are snapping up some great bargains even when it isn't clear that the market has found support.
Rather than adopt this sort of black-and-white thinking about the market, it is more useful to cultivate a flexible mindset. I find that what works best for me it to embrace the prevailing trend but also be very opportunistic in looking for shorter-term trades. I know that even within the worst downtrends, there will be very good tradable bounces. I don't have to believe that every bounce is the end of the downtrend, like so many of the perma-bulls in the media, but I can embrace them long enough to knock out some decent trades and then look for more opportunities.
The market has been acting poorly for a while now and it can wear you out mentally and emotionally if you fight it. It has not been easy to make progress, yet I am feeling optimistic as this downtrend plays out because I'm confident that it will ultimately lead to better trading and great opportunities.
Market corrections are inevitable. It is the nature of the beast, and too many of us spend too much time complaining about it and hoping for a quick change. It will change. It always does and if we embrace the fact that things are difficult and our opportunities to the upside will be limited and fleeting, then we can handle it quite well.
The great thing about the market is that a new crop of opportunities always comes along. It is just a matter of being patient and having capital ready when the time is right. This poor action recently isn't much fun but it is necessary and the market will be better for it. Stay mentally positive even if you think we are going much lower. The right mindset in a poor market is your best defense.
We have a little oversold bounce this morning, which didn't work out very well yesterday, but there are some decent earnings as well as quite a few poor ones. We have durable goods and weekly claims, but the big event is Apple (AAPL) earnings after the close. This is the most important stock in the market and it has been acting poorly lately. Expectations are low and there is plenty of pessimism, but the history of AAPL is positive surprises, so it will be extremely interesting to see if the recent skeptics are correct. -
Deckers Outdoor prelim $1.18 vs $1.05 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $367.4 mln vs $413.46 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Deckers Outdoor sees Q4 EPS of -14% vs +22% prior guidance and +8% consensus; revs of +6% vs +19% prior guidance and +13% consensus
Amazon.com sees Q4 operating income ($490)-310 mln consensus $368 mln
Amazon.com prelim ($0.23) ex Living Social Loss, may not compare to ($0.10) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $13.81 bln vs $13.91 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Amazon.com sees Q4 revs $20.25-22.75 bln vs $22.85 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
AMZN kauplemas 8% miinuspoolel, DECK aktsiatega kauplemine hetkel peatatud. -
NQ kukkkus AAPL- i tulemuste peale 17 punkti vaatame paljuga AAPL vastab :)
