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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 16. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • USA turud saagisid päeva jooksul mitu korda üles alla, ent üle pika aja valitses sessiooni lõpus ostjate ülekaal, mis aitas indeksitel päeva põhjadest põrgata. Sellest hoolimata sulgus S&P 500 -0,16% madalamal ning on oktoobri tippudest kauplemas veidi üle -7% madalamal ning ca -5% pärast presidendivalimisi 6.novembril. Stoxx 600 indeks lõpetas protsendi jagu all.

    Eurotsooni kolmanda kvartali SKP muutus kinnitas, et ühisraha jagavate riikide majandus oli tehniliselt taas majandussurutises, kui kogutoodang kahanes kvartali baasil -0,1% (teises kvartalis -0,2%) ning aasta baasil -0,6% (teises kvartalis -0,4%), mis vastas analüütikute ootustele. Positiivselt suutis üllatada Prantsusmaa, kelle majandus kasvas nii kvartali kui aasta baasil 0,2%, mis ületas 0,0% ootust ning samuti Itaalia, kus SKP kahanes teise kvartaliga võrreldes -0,2% ehk olulisel vähem võrreldes analüütikute oodatud -0,5%ga (aasta baasil registreeriti languseks -2,4% vs oodatud -2,9%). Negatiivselt üllatas aga Hollandi majandus, mille SKP kahanes kvartali baasil -1,1% ehk märksa enam võrreldes näiteks Euroopa Komisjoni enda prognoosiga möödunud nädalal, mille kohaselt pidanuks kogutoodang püsima muutumatuna.

    USAs makro on aga peegeldamas orkaan Sandy tagajärgi, kui möödunud nädala esmaste töötuabiraha taotluste arv kerkis 78k võrra 439K peale, jõudes kõrgeimale tasemele alates 2011.a aprillist. Deutshce toob välja, et üsna sarnane olukord oli ka pärast Katrinat 2005.a septembris, kui taotluste arv kasvas 96K ning paari nädala jooksul tuli taas alla. Novembri töötleva tööstuse regionaalsed küsitlused aga rääkisid erinevat lugu. Üllatuslikult ei kajastanud NY Fedi indeks Sandy mõju, paranedes -6,2 punkti pealt -5,2 punktile, mis oli vastupidine ootustele (-8,0). Seevastu Philadelphia Fedi oma kajastas mõju rohkem, kukkudes 5,7 punktilt -10,7 punktile (oodati 0,0 punkti).

    Tulles tänase kalendri juurde, siis viimane jääb paraku suhteliselt õhukeseks. Ainsana võiks suuremat huvi pakkuda USA oktoobrikuu tööstustoodangu muutus.

    09.00 EU27 uute autode registreerimine (oktoober)
    16.15 USA tööstustoodangu muutus (oktoober)

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,1% punases ja kerges miinuses on alustamas ka Euroopa.
  • Citi majandusindikaatorite üllatusindeksid jooksevad eurotsooni ja USA puhul erinevalt. USA hoiab hetkel oma taset, ent eurotsoon pigem jätkuvalt üllatamas negatiivselt.
  • Uute audode registreerimine Euroopa Liidus kahanes oktoobris mullusega võrreldes küll -4,8% (eurotsoonis -8,5%), ent see oli siiski parem võrreldes septembri -10,8%ga (eurotsoonis -18,5%).
  • Vaadates Euroopa ettevõtete puhul insaiderite ostusid/müüke viimase kahe nädala jooksul, siis kauss on jätkuvalt kallutatud müüjate kasuks. Q3 raporteerimine on lähenemas lõpule ning insaiderite huvi müüa aktsiaid on Deutsche andmetel suurenenud, samal ajal püsib aga ostuhuvi selle aasta põhjade lähedal.

    Major insider buy transactions over the last 2 weeks above Euro 500,000 were noticed in Admiral and Snam. Other significant buy transactions above Euro 10,000 were noticed in Atlas Copco, , Clariantm, Compagnie Generale De Geophysique – Veri, Danske Bank, FirstGroup, Iberdrola, Immofinanz Group, K+S, Meda AB, MTG, Ratos AB, Schneider Electric, Securitas, Straumann, Tate & Lyle, TelecityGroup Plc, Terna S.p.A., Thales SA, Wacker Chemie AG, Wereldhave and Whitbread.

    Major insider sell transactions over last 2 weeks above Euro 500,000 were noticed in AXA, Diageo, Imerys, Partners Grp Hldg, Richemont, Ryanair, SEB, SEB Group, Swatch Group and TGS Nopec. Other significant sell transactions above Euro 10,000 were reported for Afren, Amer Sports Corporation, Baloise roda, Dassault Systemes, Filtrona, Geberit, Gecina, Hays, Hexagon, Holcim, Inditex, Kone, Konecranes, Kuehne+Nagel, Lloyds Banking Group, Nordea, Novo Nordisk, Schibsted, Sika, Skanska, Smiths Group, Sulzer and Unibail Rodamco.

  • ymeramees
    eilne värk, aga ilmselt seda keerutatakse veel edasi


    Kas sa näe, analüütikud tulevad defendima (Bench, kes buy peal ja Oppen, kes teeb ug). Ehk liiga kuum kartul veel.
    Juhtkond andis muidugi ka eile õhtul teada, et mingit jama pole ja fully cooperativad seal, aga sedasama oli ka ta ka varem teinud. See body scanner on küll väike jupp, aga kui sealt laks tuleb, siis mõju on kindlasti suurem kui ainult see revenue miss.

    Natuke sarnane teisipäevasele idiootlikule Piperi DDD ug-le. Ei ole ju ilus, mis?
  • Gapping up:
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PENN +25.6%, (announces intent to pursue the separation of its real estate assets from its operating assets, announces guidance in connection with plan to separate gaming operating assets and real property assets), FL +6.1%, ARUN +5.3%, HLSS +5.3% (revises earnings guidance upward; increased dividend for months of November and December 2012 by $0.01 to $0.12 per ordinary share), GPS +5.2%, ATW +4.6%, SSTK +2.9%, (thinly traded), ADSK +2%, COGO +1.9%, (thinly traded), MRVL +1.9%, HIBB +1.9%, INTU +1.8%, AMAT +0.5%.

    M&A news: SHF +30.3% (Reckitt Benckiser to commence all-cash tender offer to acquire Schiff Nutrition for $42 per share ), GERN +7.4% (BioTime announces non-binding letter of intent with Geron regarding stem cell assets), HTZ +2.8% and DTG +0.5% (Hertz obtains FTC clearance for Dollar Thrifty acquisition), OUTD halted (Outdoor Channel Holdings to merge with The Sportsman Channel and InterMedia Outdoors; stockholders will be entitled to receive for each share, subject to proration, either $8.00 in cash or one share of stock in IMOH), .

    A few Japan related names higher: SNE +3.4%, CAJ +2.9%, HMC +2.9%, TM +1.9%

    Casino names trading higher with PENN:
    MGM +4.5%, LVS +3.6%, BYD +3.0%, PNK +1.8%

    Other news: CLDX +6.1% (Celldex Therapeutics announces 'positive' three-year survival data for rindopepimut Phase 2 clinical program: 'data strongly support ongoing Phase 3 clinical program'), IOC +4.2% (InterOil announced PNG Cabinet Approved co's Gulf LNG Project), KCG +3.8% (GETCO Strategy Investments reports 23.8% stake in KCG-- SEC Filing), DDD +3.2% (says 'recent articles and their materially inaccurate and misleading conclusions'), POZN +2.1% (announces positive results for the PA8140-102 Bioavailability Study), ELOQ +2% (files to withdraw Registration Statement on Form S-1 originally filed with the Commission on November 1, 2012), +1.1% (announces 2-for-1 stock split, increases dividend), DISH +1.1% (DISH Network and Google (GOOG) in discussions over possible wireless service deal, according to reports), NFLX +0.4% (following late spike higher), .

    Analyst comments: NLY +0.8% (Annaly Capital upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo)
  • Gapping down:
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SHLD -6%, SINA -6%, DELL -2.5%, (also Acquires Gale Technologies).

    Select financial related names showing weakness: UBS -1.9%, DB -1.5%, CS -1.5%, ING -1.0%, BCS -0.7%.

    Other news: DVAX -56.8% (confirms FDA Advisory Committee meeting outcome), STP -6.2% (reduces production at Arizona factory), NAK -3.8% (reached agreement to settle the loan owing by Liberty Star to Northern Dynasty in the principal amount of $3,730,174 plus interest), SOHU -1.2% and BIDU -0.2%(following SINA results), FB -0.8% (will make a second attempt to settle privacy allegations, according to reports ), JCP -0.8% (cautious mention on MadMoney), DNB -0.6% (following 8 point intraday drop on reports not pursuing sale).

    Analyst comments: FTR -4.6% (Frontier Communications downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), WIN -2.7% (Windstream downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
  • liiguvad jutud, et mõlemad parteid on altimad lükkama fiskaalkuristikku edasi kaugemale 2013 aastasse

    WSJ: WHITE HOUSE IN ADVANCED INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS ON PLAN TO REPLACE SEQUESTER - SOURCES
    WSJ: CONCEPT WOULD KICK MAJOR DEFICIT-REDUCTION TALKS INTO 2013
  • Everyone Agrees
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Nov 16, 2012 | 7:33 AM EST | 2

    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect. -- Mark Twain

    For over a week now the headlines each day have been about stocks being under pressure on worries about the eurozone debt crisis and the fiscal cliff. Nothing has changed this morning as stocks struggle once again on the same concerns.

    What makes this market particularly difficult is that everyone seems to agree. Everyone knows what the negatives are, everyone knows the market is technically oversold and everyone is looking for some sort of relief bounce to eventually occur.

    Of course, when everyone agrees that the market should do something it usually does nice job of causing great frustration by doing just the opposite. What adds to the difficulty is that we know that the contrary action of the market won't last forever. Sooner or later a big bounce will kick in and it will likely feed on itself as the folks on the sidelines finally pile in and try to catch a ride.

    So, once again the big question we must ponder is whether today is the day that the bounce occurs? It seems like a fairly good bet, but it has been a pretty good bet all week and it hasn't worked.

    It is very easy to grow tired and frustrated with this market. There just isn't much we can do while we wait for some sort of countertrend action. We are too oversold to be aggressive with shorts, but we definitely aren't seeing any good bounce action either. The contrarians have been active trying to anticipate a turn, but they have been killed with their premature accumulation.

    The way to deal with this market is patience and vigilance. That isn't very entertaining, but the way to make money is to wait for some signs of action and then rush in as it develops further. So far nothing much at all has developed and if you are too anxious to move it hasn't worked. But at some point, a bounce will become self-fulfilling and will gain some momentum. If you have the right trading vehicles, use good money management and are aggressive, you should be able to catch a move.

    The important thing when focusing on bounce action is that you treat it as a trade and not a belief that a major market turn has occurred. You can bet that the minute we bounce, many pundits will be crowing about how the worst is over and that it is smooth sailing to the upside now. Don't buy it. A oversold bounce might be the first step in putting in a low, but it will take more than that to change the character of this market.

    It is Friday and we are heading into Thanksgiving week, so conditions are good for some short covering that may help to finally deliver some upside. I'm leaning a little long here mainly because we closed a little better on Thursday. We have had a series of poor closes lately and I viewed a late uptick as a slight positive.

    We'll see how things develop, but given how often the bounce buyers have been disappointed lately they are likely to be hesitant to rush in and be burned yet again. But it is skepticism that is the ingredient that is most likely to finally give us that bounce that so many are looking for.
  • USA tööstustoodangu muutus alla ootuste ning samuti oli tootmisvõimsuse rakendamine arvatust madalam. Näpud taas Sandy suunas?

    October Capacity Utilization 77.8% vs 78.3% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 78.2% from 78.3%
    October Industrial Production -0.4% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.2% from +0.4%

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