Börsipäev 12. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Turud olid eile suhteliselt heas meeleolus ning võttes arvesse, kuidas on eelnevatel kordadelgi mindud FOMC kohtumisele suure hurraaga vastu, siis ei ole imekspandav, et selgi korral loodetakse kuulda rahatrükimasina seadistamist suurema kiiruse peale. Päeva teises pooles kahjustas sentimenti Esindajatekoja spiikri John Boehneri kommentaar, et vabariiklased ootavad endiselt Valge Maja kulukärbete pakkumist. Samal ajal tõdes Senati enamuse liider Harry Reid, et demokraadid ei kavatse teha oma kulude vähendamise pakkumist, mis muudab kokkuleppe saavutamise enne jõule väga keeruliseks. S&P 500 indeks lõpetas päeva 0,7% kõrgemal ning Stoxx 600 tõusis 0,3%.
Kreeka valitsus teatas, et suutis võlakirjade tagasiostuprogrammi edukalt lõpule viia, saades tänu tähtaja pikendamisele kokku 31,8 miljardi euro väärtuses pakkumisi. Küll aga saavutati see arvatust veidi kõrgema hinna juurde (keskmiselt 33,8% nominaalväärtusest), mis tähendab, et tagasiostuks kulub 11,2 miljardit eurot. EFSFist on laenuna ette nähtud aga 10 miljardit eurot ja see tekitab 1,2 miljardi eurose puudujäägi. Ühtlasi ei vähene tänu tagasiostule Kreeka võlakoorem nii palju nagu esialgselt arvati (11% asemel alla 10%), mis jätab võla ja SKP suhte 2020.aastaks mõni nädal tagasi kokkulepitud 124% asemel 126,6% peale. Nii et päris esialgselt kokkulepitud 120%st liigutakse järjest kaugemale, mis seab riski alla ka IMFi poolt nõutud alla 110%ni jõudmise 2022.a, olles viimase puhul põhiliseks kriteeriumiks uue laenueraldise väljastamisel. Teisest küljest suurendab see tõenäosust, et mingis punktis tuleb võla edasine restruktureerimine uuesti päevakorda ning siis jääb üle vaid teistel valitsustel kahjumeid aktsepteerida.
Makro poolel oli Euroopas positiivseks uudiseks Saksamaa investorite paranenud kindlustunne riigi majanduse järgneva kuue kuu väljavaate osas, kui ZEW küsitluse ootuste indeks kerkis detsembris 22,6 punkti ning jõudis 6,9 punktiga uuesti positiivsele territooriumile (esimest korda alates selle aasta maikuust).
USAs aga kasvasid hulgimüüjate varud oktoobris eelmise kuu baasil 0,6% 497,13 miljardi dollarini, mis oli rohkem kui analüütikute prognoositud 0,4%. Samal ajal aga kukkus jaemüüjate müük -1,2% 408,47 miljardi dollarini, mis jäi samuti analüütikute oodatud 0,1% kasvule alla. Sellega jõudsid hulgimüüjate varud suhtena müüki kõrgeimale tasemele alates 2009.a. USA kaubandusbilansi defitsiit näitas aga oktoobris kasvu 4,8% -42,2 miljardi dollarini (oodati -42,8 mld USD), kuna eksport kukkus -3,6% ja import vähenes -2,1%. Goldmani arvates on USA majandus hetkel kursil saavutamaks neljandas kvartalis 1,0% kvartaalset annualiseeritud kasvu.
Tulles tänase päeva juurde, siis Suurbritannias avaldatakse novembri ja oktoobri tööturu statistikat, eurotsoonis raporteeritakse oktoobri tööstustoodangu muutus ja USAs saab tähelepanu all olema FOMC intressimääraotsus, värskendatud majandusprognoosid ning Ben Bernanke pressikonverents.
11.30 Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotluste arv (november)
11.30 Suurbritannia töötuse määr (oktoober)
12.00 Eurotsooni tööstustoodangu muutus (oktoober)
12.00 Itaalia võlakirjaoksjon (6,5 mld EUR 12 kuu võlga)
15.30 ELi rahandusministrid kohtuvad arutamaks pankade järelvalvet
19.30 FOMC pressiteade
21.00 FOMC majandusprognoosid
21.00 USA valitsuse eelarvepuudujääk (november)
21.15 Ben Bernanke pressikonverents
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel nullis, Euroopa on avanemas 0,4% kõrgemal. -
Esialgsetes kommentaarides on Lagarde Kreeka võla tagasiostu tulemuste osas vähemalt positiivne
Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, on Tuesday welcomed the results of Greece's bond buyback scheme, but said she would leave further comment to European economic authorities. -
WSJ on pannud käesoleva aasta üsna värvikatesse piltidesse
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Täna ehk 12.12.12 on teinud Saksamaa DAX indeks viimase 4,9 aasta kõrgeima taseme ja käinud ära üle 7600 punkti taseme. Viimati oldi nii kõrgel 15.01.08.
DAX indeksi ajaloolisest tipust väärtusega 8151.57 punkti, mis tehti 13.07.2007, on nüüd puudu vaid 7%. -
Bank of Greece Governor Provopoulos says Greek economy to shrink more that 6% in 2012, & shrink 4% - 4.5% in 2013
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UK töötu abiraha taotlused oodatust veidi paremad
UK ECON: ILO 3-month Unemployment Rate unchanged at 7.8% in November. Claimant Count unchanged at 4.8%
UK ECON: Jobless Claims Fall -3k in Nov versus 7k expected. Oct reading revised lower to 6k from 10.1k initially reported
UK ECON: Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) rise 1.8% in Nov vs 1.9% expected -
Eurotsooni tööstustoodang kukkus oktoobris mullusega võrreldes -3,6%, mis oli kiirem kui septembri -2,8% ning oodatud -2,4%. Alloleval joonisel on oranži joonena ära toodud ka töötleva tööstuse PMI, mille põhjal peaks ka tööstustoodang näitama edaspidi paranemist.
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Keegi pettumusele rahatrüki osas panustada julgeb? Septembrikuu "maagia" müüdi ära võrdlemisi kiirelt.
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Eile teatas MCP, et firma CEO Mark A. Smith lahkub ametist.
Molycorp appoints Vice Chairman Constantine Karayannopoulos Interim President and CEO; Mark A. Smith has left the company
Täna on hiljuti jõudsa ralli läbi teinud MCP eelturul ligi 8% miinuspoolel kauplemas, aga Dahlman Rose`i analüütikute arvates võtavad investorid selle uudise, vaatamata esialgsele negatiivsele reaktsioonile siiski positiivselt vastu.
Molycorp: CEO Mark Smith steps down, investors to react positively to this news - Dahlman Rose
Dahlman Rose notes, Mark Smith has left the company, and the Board of Directors has appointed Vice Chairman Constantine Karayannopoulos as Interim President and CEO; The company is immediately undertaking a search for a permanent President and CEO. The firm believes Smith's departure is tied to Molycorp's recent weaker-than-expected performance; driven in part by falling REO price, but also by disappointing operating results, unexpected additional capital expenditures, and aggressive acquisitions. Despite negative after-market performance, they expect investors to react positively to this news. -
Paneme siia tänase Fedi otsuse ootused ka. Konsensus ootab kvantitatiivse lõdvendamise programmi laiendamist ehk et Fed teataks $45 miljardi kuisest riigivõlakirjade ostuprogrammist.
Eilne Bloombergi artikkel:
The Federal Reserve will amplify record accommodation tomorrow by announcing $45 billion in monthly Treasury buying that will push its balance sheet almost to $4 trillion, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
48 of 49 economists predict the Federal Open Market Committee will purchase Treasuries to bolster an existing program to buy $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month. The panel pledged in October to continue that plan until the labor market improves “substantially.”
“It’s going to be massive and open-ended in size,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York and a former New York Fed economist.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his FOMC colleagues will press on with purchases at least through the first quarter of 2014, according to the median estimate in the Dec. 7-10 survey. They are expanding the balance sheet beyond $2.86 trillion in a bid to spur growth and lower an unemployment rate of 7.7 percent.
Link. -
Ymera,
SINA-weibo teema ? nõrk?
FC-GS dg -sellel turul mitte?
MCP -CEO vah-liiga palju tõusnud?
NFLX ug? squeeser? -
MNST- joogid ohutud- liiga vähe?
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DD +2.5% (announces $1 billion share buyback program; sees FY12 EPS at high end of previous range), AET +1.5%.
A few European financial related names showing strength: UBS +2.4%, CS +1.9%, NBG +1.6%, SAN +1.2%, BCS +1.0%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: HES +3.8% (Hess announces Pecan-1 Discovery Offshore Ghana), WNR +2.3% (declares special dividend of $1.50 per share), CHK +1.4% (nnounces agreement to sell a substantial majority of its remaining midstream assets for $2.16 bln to Access Midstream Partners), RDS.A +1.2%, RIG +1.1%, STO +1.1%, BP +1%, .
A few solar names ticking higher: STP +5.5%, YGE +2.6%
A few telecom names seeing modest strength: PT +3.4%, FTE +1.6%, TI +1.1%,
Other news: SCMP +13.1% (announces FDA approval of an sNDA for RESCULA (unoprostone isopropyl), CLSN +7.6% (continued strength after Director discloses buying 14K shares at $7.60 on 12/10, worth ~$100K yesterday afternoon), HBIO +5.5% (announces filing of IPO Registration Statement for Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology), DLB +5.3% (announces one-time special dividend of $4.00 per share), DISH +1.7% (issues statement on AWS-4 Spectrum Decision), AAPL +0.9% (WSJ discusses news that Apple is testing TV designs for Apple TV), CMI +0.7% (announces new $1 bln stock repurchase program), CB +0.4% (estimates net losses after tax from Storm Sandy of approximately $570 million; will resume share repurchases), BHP +0.3% (PetroChina to buy BHP stake in Browse Project for $1.63 bln, according to reports).
Analyst comments: OWW +2.9% (initiated with a Buy at Janney),-email after the close DDD +2.1% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan), TTWO +2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), ALNY +1.9% (ticking higher, upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), NFLX +1.6% (tgt to $105 from $80 at Morgan Stanley), POT +1.2% (resumed with a Buy at Goldman) -
Gapping down:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GEOS -9.9%, CENT -3.7%, (light volume), CRL -3.6%.
Other news: TLAB -14.9% (trading ex dividend), CIE -8.9% (announced pricing of a registered underwritten public offering of $1,200,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 2.625% convertible senior notes due 2019), EXAR -7.2% (disclosed termination of Senior VP and CFO Kevin S. Bauer, effective immeditely), MCP -6.7% (appoints Vice Chairman Constantine Karayannopoulos Interim President and CEO; Mark A. Smith has left the company), NRF -4.7% (announces public offering of 25 mln shares of common stock), WMB -3.4% (Williams Cos to invest up to $2.4 Billion in Access Midstream Partners; affirms guidance for 20% annual dividend growth; announces 46.5 mln share public offering of common stock), LLY -3.2% (provides update on next steps for solanezumab; co does not intend to submit a Biologics License Application at this time in the U.S.), G -2.8% (announces secondary equity offering of ~10.9 mln shares on behalf of original sponsors), CTWS -2.5% ( announces proposed offering of 1.475 mln shares of common stock), ERJ -2.2% (still checking), BUD -1.8% (still checking), SE -0.8% (Spectra Energy prices 12.8 mln shares of common stock at $26.75 per share).
Analyst comments: UA -2.2% (initiated with a Underweight at JP Morgan), STX -3.4% ( downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), ZIOP -2.7% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies). -
BDI langus jätkub
Baltic Dry Index drops -8,2% to 826 points, most since October 2008 -
krookus
Ymera,
SINA-weibo teema ? nõrk?
FC-GS dg -sellel turul mitte?
MCP -CEO vah-liiga palju tõusnud?
NFLX ug? squeeser?
FC -oli sell, tuli tagasi selliga, pole põhjust minu arvates. NFLX - MS viib targeti lihtsalt üles, kuna ta eelmine on jalgu jäänud strockile, mis tahab üles minna. MCP - ma arvan, aga ilmselt ei panusta, et see mingi kell squeezib.
SINA -mu meelest pointless sellelt lille noppima minna. Lihtsalt arvamus. Niikuinii kuulan, kuidas eilne MUSE veel kõrvus vilistab. -
MCP mõnus squeez...arvata oli..
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ymeramees
krookus
Ymera,
SINA-weibo teema ? nõrk?
FC-GS dg -sellel turul mitte?
MCP -CEO vah-liiga palju tõusnud?
NFLX ug? squeeser?
FC -oli sell, tuli tagasi selliga, pole põhjust minu arvates. NFLX - MS viib targeti lihtsalt üles, kuna ta eelmine on jalgu jäänud strockile, mis tahab üles minna. MCP - ma arvan, aga ilmselt ei panusta, et see mingi kell squeezib.
SINA -mu meelest pointless sellelt lille noppima minna. Lihtsalt arvamus. Niikuinii kuulan, kuidas eilne MUSE veel kõrvus vilistab.
Tegelt ma mõtlesin CF-i -
Ma tean, mõte jäi samaks :)
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FC :)
Ma veits üllatunud ,et CF ikkagi alla tuli ,see ju jube haip teema.
DECK sai eile veel Janne käest ug ,kõrge avanemine ja sell jälle -rallind põhjadest palju -kas ikka kasumivõtt? -
krookus
MNST- joogid ohutud- liiga vähe?
Kuna nüüd siis joogid on ohutud ;) Kas mingi suurem squees? -
Eile oli neil õhtul väike istumine, ju sealt midagi.
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Fed:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity and employment have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and, in January, will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. The Committee views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed the asset purchase program and the characterization of the conditions under which an exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate.
