Börsipäev 19. juuni
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USA turud kurseerisid tagasihoidliku käibe juures (S&P 500 +0,8%) ülespoole, olles enne keskpanga otsust nüüdseks kosunud üsna kenasti tagasi oma mai tippude lähedale, mis muudab turud selle võrra jälle haavatavamaks, kui Bernanke peaks tulema välja QE vähendamise plaaniga. Üldine konsensus näib siiski arvavat, et isegi kui selliseid uudiseid kavatsetakse serveerida, siis seda tehakse võimalikult ettevaatlikult, et turuosalisi mitte ära hirmutada.
Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 indeks nullis, olles viimased kaks nädalat liikunud suhteliselt väikeses koridoris külgsuunas. Makrouudistest avaldati Saksamaa analüütikute ja ökonomistide küsitluse põhjal koostatud kindlustunde indeksid, mis kujunesid üllatavalt vastupidavaks võttes arvesse DAXi 5% langust maikuu keskpaigast. Mario Draghi viitas aga oma kõnes võimalusele, et tulevikus võidakse vajadusel rakendada täiendavaid rahapoliitilisi meetmeid.
“There are numerous other measures – standard interest rate policy and non-standard measures – that we can deploy and that we will deploy if circumstances warrant,…Some of those measures may have unintended consequences. This does not mean that they should not be used, but it does mean that we need to be aware of those consequences and manage them appropriately.”
USA maikuu kinnisvarastatistika aga valmistas kerge pettumuse, kui alustatud elamuehituste arv näitas vaid 6,8% kasvu võrreldes aprilliga, mil see kukkus kuu baasil -14,8% (oodati 11,4% kasvu). Aasta baasil oli näit siiski 29% kõrgem. Väljastatud elamuehituste lubade arv vastas aga -3,1% langusega konsensuse prognoosile, olles aprillis suurenenud 12,9%. Aastatagusega võrreldes oli number 21% parem.
Vaadates tänast kalendrit, siis FOMC ja Ben Bernanke saavad ilmselt kogu tähelepanu. Enne USA turu avanemist on oma majandustulemused avaldamas FedEx.
11.30 Inglise keskpanga eelmise kohtumise protokoll
21.00 FOMC intressimäära otsus ja värsked majandusprognoosid
21.30 Ben Bernanke pressikonverents
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,1% madalamal. -
"A net 25 percent of the global panel say that emerging markets is the region they would most like to underweight in the coming 12 months - the lowest ever reading," the BofA Merrill Lynch report said.
As investors pull out of emerging markets, European equities are becoming more attractive, according to the BofA Merrill survey, which showed 6 percent of fund managers overweight the region's stocks in June, a 14 percent swing from May when 8 percent were underweight.
Source: CNBC (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100826479)
Huvitav. -
Japan's Nikkei ends up 1.8% at 13,245.22
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Arvatakse, et intressimäärad jäävad senise 0%-0,25% vahele. Ei usuta ka QE programmi vähendamisse.
The evolution of these forecasts is a critical issue. Fed officials are unlikely at this meeting to change their $85-billion-per-month bond-buying program—launched to boost growth by pushing down long-term interest rates and pushing up asset prices, and spurring spending, hiring and investment.
But what they say about the economy will send important signals about what they expect to do in the future. If they maintain confidence in their economic forecasts, it could signal they think they're on track to begin pulling back the program later this year.
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Zerohedge'i lehelt leiab viite Kyle Bassi värskele tunnisele etteastele, mille raames peatub keskpankade tegevusel ja mitmetel muudel teemadel. Link
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A.M.A. Recognizes Obesity as a Disease
ARNA ja VVUS positiivne -
The Telegraph vahendab tänases artiklis Hiina riikliku meediaväljaande esilugu, kus väljendatakse suuremat muret FEDi võimaliku QE vähendamise negatiivsete mõjude kohta Hiinas:
A front-page editorial on Friday in China Securities Journal - an arm of the regulatory authorities - warned that capital inflows have slowed sharply and may have begun to reverse as investors grow wary of emerging markets. “China will face large-scale capital outflows if there is an exit from quantitative easing and the dollar strengthens.” it wrote.
The journal said foreign exodus from Chinese equity funds were the highest since early 2008 in the week up to June 5, and the withdrawal Hong Kong funds were the most in a decade.
It also warned that total credit in Chinese financial system may have reached 221pc of GDP, jumping almost eightfold over the last decade. Companies will have to fork out $1 trillion in interest payments alone this year. “Chinese corporate debt burdens are much higher than those of other economies and much of the liquidity is being used to repay debt and not to finance output,” it said. -
Viimasel ajal näeb pea iga päev Hiina SKP kasvuootuste allapoole korrigeerimist, ent üldjuhul on jäädud 2014.a osas siiski optimistlikumaks ning usutud tempo uut kiirenemist. HSBC nii enam ei arva. Homme tuleb juuni PMI ja eks sealt ole ehk näha märke, kas olukord töötlevas tööstuses on pigem stabiliseerumas või eksisteerib oht edasiseks jahtumiseks.
HSBC CUTS CHINA GROWTH FORECASTS TO 7.4% IN 2013 AND 2014 ; *HSBC PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED 2013 GROWTH OF 8.2%, 8.4% IN 2014 -
FedExi lõppenud kvartali EPS oodatust parem aga järgmise majandusaasta prognoos jääb alla. Kvartaalset numbrit enam ei anta.
FedEx prelim $2.13 vs $1.95 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $11.4 bln vs $11.45 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
FedEx sees FY14 EPS +7-13% to ~$6.67-7.04 vs $7.30 Capital IQ Consensus -
VVUS päevaiseselt kõrgemale liikumas, kuna liikvel on kuulujutt,et kindlustus hakkab ka kaalualandavaid ravimeid katma.
High vol. spike to Hod in VVUS on news/rumor driven price action that suggests Medicare to cover weight loss drug
VVUS kauplemas 5.6% kõrgemal. -
FOMC tekitas küll turule volatiilusust juurde,aga sisulise poole pealt midagi uut ei tulnud:
Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month.
Exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored -
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke- says if conditions and trends continue that it could reduce pace of purchases later this year until the middle of 2014 when it would end
Says unemployment may be around 7% when it end purchases; says any raising of rates 'remains far out' in terms of timing
