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Börsipäev 19. juuni

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  • Ehkki Föderaalreserv otsustas ootuspäraselt vähenda kuist valitsuse võlakirjade ja hüpoteeklaenuga tagatud väärtpaberite ostukogust 10 miljardi dollari võrra 35 miljardile dollarile, siis pressikonverentsil kujunes Janet Yelleni sõnavõtt mesijutuks pullidele, kes pressisid S&P 500 0,8% kõrgemale 1957 punktini. Euroopas jõudis Stoxx 600 indeks enne sulguda -0,1% madalamal.

    FOMC istungile vastu minnes olid turuosalised seisukohal, et midagi uut keskpank tõenäoliselt ei ütle, kui siis pigem võetakse pärast töötuse määra langust ja inflatsiooni kiirenemist rangem seisukoht intressimäära tõstmise osas. Aga Janet Yelleni sõnum kujunes arvatust pehmemaks. Kuigi keskpank on veendunud, et majandus näitab paranemise märke, siis USA SKP tänavune kasvuprognoos toodi märtsiga võrreldes 2,8-3,0% pealt 2,1-2,3% peale ja lisaks ei avaldanud Yellen ka erilist muret hoogustunud inflatsiooni pärast, mis kokkuvõttes andis investoritele põhjust arvata, et intressimäär võib jääda arvatust isegi kauem praegusele tasemele. Samuti arvas Yellen, et aktsiaturg kaupleb ettevõtete kasumite ja dividendide põhjal ajalooliste normide piires, mis näis süstivat turul lisajulgust.

    Mõistagi on rahapoliitika investorite otsustes endiselt arvestataval kohal, aga samas ei saa mööda vaadata faktist, et ka mikro tasandil on viimasel ajal tulnud mitmeid häid uudiseid. Eelmisel nädalal kergitas Intel oma majandusprognoose tänu tugevamale arvutite nõudlusele ärivaldkonnas. Adobe aktsia rallis eile 8,2% pärast arvatust paremaid kvartali tulemusi ja FedEx teatas, et teenis lõppenud kvartalis oodatud 2,36 dollari asemel aktsia kohta kasumit 10 senti rohkem ning ületas 11,64 miljardi dollari suurust müügitulu prognoosi 0,16 miljardiga, mis viis aktsia 6,2% kõrgemale. Sellised uudised annavad lootust, et kasumiootusi hakatakse ka laiemal tasandil ülespoole korrigeerima, küsimus on vaid selles, kas aktsiaturud on jooksmas ees kiiremini ära või mitte.

    Tulles tänase päeva juurde, siis Euroopas langeb fookus Suurbritannia jaemüügile, USAs aga selguvad möödunud nädala töötu abiraha taotlused ja järjekorras teine regionaalne töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (Philadelphia).

    11.30 Suurbritannia jaemüük (mai)
    15.30 USA möödunud nädala töötu abiraha taotluste arv
    17.00 USA Philadelphia FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (juuni)
    17.00 USA juhtivate indikaatorite indeks (mai)

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel ilma olulise muutuseta.
  • Analüütikute värskemad mõtted Euroopa ettevõtete kohta:

    BG Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse, See Challenging Year
    • Cut from neutral, lowers EPS 7%-11% over forecast period citing LNG risk, higher interest expenses in Australia from 2015.
    • Sees limited macro-related upside in 2014 as most of BG’s earnings sensitivity to oil price movements is hedged at $106/bbl: CS
    • M&A unlikely at current levels, even with perfect execution and upside from synergies, would be hard to make a deal accretive for most Majors: CS
    Applus Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse, PT Eu20 (Close 16,06)
    Legal & General Cut to Sell vs Hold at SocGen
    Global Cement Shares Undervalued, More M&A Possible: Jefferies
    • Jefferies re-initiates coverage of global cement cos.; says improving outlook in U.S. already recognised in share prices, not in Europe, EM.
    • Further cost cutting likely to be required, possibly through corporate activity as slow acceleration in demand growth unlikely to significantly improve pricing power: Jefferies
    • Expects Lafarge Holcim merger synergies to exceed initial guidance by >20%, once they include benefits of concentrating production on lower cost locations
    • Struggling to identify other mergers as attractive
    • Re-initiates Buzzi Unicem, Holcim, Italcementi, Lafarge at buy
    • Re-initiates Cemex, Heidelberg, Titan Cement at hold
    Genomic Vision Rated New Buy at SocGen, PT Eu19 (Close 14,2)
    Playtech Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Nomura; PT 776 to 753 (Close 614,0)
    Lafarge Re-Initiated Buy at Jefferies; PT Eu84 (Close 65,54)
    Italcementi Re-Initiated Buy at Jefferies; PT Eu13.8 (Close 6,74)
    Vodafone Cut to Neutral vs Buy at BofAML
    Holcim Re-Initiated Buy at Jefferies; PT Sf102 (Close 81,0)
    Buzzi Unicem Re-Initiated Buy at Jefferies
    Low Cost Carriers’ Market Share to Continue to Grow, UBS Says
    • European economic recovery should continue to drive air traffic growth, expects low cost carriers to grow ahead of market as they take market share from flag carriers, UBS says.
    • Well positioned given low cost of production, certain operationally challenged flag carriers, strong expected growth in Eastern Europe, market share low in certain large markets and less than 40% overall: UBS
    • Cuts Air France to sell vs neutral on concern around oil and capacity: UBS
    Ryanair raised to buy vs neutral, cites attractive entry point: UBS
    IAG is best equipped flag carrier to compete with low cost airlines, expects 2Qs will reassure: UBS
    European Real Estate Raised to Neutral at SocGen
    Unibail Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 224 to 227 (Close 207,45)
    Befimmo Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 59 (Close 55,0)
    Immofinanz Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT 2,6 (Close 2,68)
    Igd Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 1,5 to 1,4 (Close 1,4)
    Affine Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 16 (Close 15,06)
    Klepierre Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 38 (Close 36,15)
    Altarea Cogedim Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 143 to 141 (Close 136)
    Wereldhave Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 66 to 65 (Close 66,13)
    GSW Immobilien Cut to Sell vs Hold at SocGen; PT 35 to 34 (Close 36,49)
    Eurocommercial Properties Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 39 to 38 (Close 36,13)
    INTU Properties Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT 253,78 to 310 (Close 307,6)
    Derwent London Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 2790 to 3010 (Close 2566)
    Russia Stocks Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan
    H&M Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT SEK310 (Close 290,4)
    • Q2 earnings were closely in line with our and consensus forecasts. By region LFL sales accelerated strongly is most European markets whilst opex was tightly controlled with pressures re lated to ‘long term investments’ due to fade in 2H. However, H&M failed to recover prior year(s) markdown erosion, due to increased tactical promotion. Our forecasts are materially unchanged, but with shares now trading on 21.4x cal 2015 PE, close to our S EK310 DCF- derived TP.
    Rotork Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 2570p (Close 2629)
    • We are closing out our UW on Rotork, which was a relative valuation call reflecting slowing growth and increasing concerns on O&G capex cuts. Now, post a material de-rating vs UK peers and limited PT downside, we move to EW.
    Dno Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley, PT Nkr24 (Close 20,8)
    Genel Energy Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 1235p (Close 945)
    • We initiate on DNO (EW, 24Nok PT) and Gulf Keystone (UW, 78p PT) to round off our Kurdistan coverage roster. Genel's valuation is attractive, and we believe it is poised to benefit should the Kurdistan Regional Government see its negotiating position strengthen and/or prove able to continue exporting oil sales via Turkey. We thus upgrade Genel to OW, reflecting our Kurdistan pure-play order of preference. We increase our PT to 1,235p, implying c.30% upside, to incorporate operational updates. Risks to our views include security tensions disrupting oil production, Turkey withdrawing support for exporting KRoI oil, and inconsistent/incomplete oil payments.
    SKF Removed From Premium List at SocGen
    Deutsche Annington Added to Premium List at SocGen; PT 27 to 28 (Close 21,63)
  • Amazon.com (+2,7% @ $334,38) esitles eile oma kauaoodatud nutitelefoni, Fire Phone, millel on muuhulgas 3D-ekraan, piiramatu fotode salvestamise võimalus Amazoni pilvel ning aastane tasuta Prime teenuse kasutamise võimalus. Seadmel on 4,7-tolline ekraan ning 13-megapiksline kaamera (rohkem infot saab näiteks siit). Nutitelefon tuleb USAs müügile 25. juulil AT&T võrgus ning hind algab 199 dollarist (koos kaheaastase lepinguga 32GB).
  • Viimastel päevadel on levima hakanud kuulujutt, et Warren Buffett on järjekordset suurtehingut lukku löömas, mis loomulikult kutsub ennustama, milline võiks olla see ülevõetav firma. Korraks viskas keegi õhku mõtte, et kuna Berkshire juba omab üsna suurt tükki Coca-Colas ja see on olnud pikka aega Warreni üks lemmikuid, siis äkki kaalub ta osaluse drastilist suurendamist. Loogiline, aga siiski üsna ebareaalne, arvestades Coca-Cola 182mld marketcapi ja fakti, et Buffett on firma juhtkonnaga väga rahul.

    Siit tekkis aga idee, et äkki mõttesuund ei olegi niivõrd vale, lihtsalt tegu pole Coca-Cola kui selle kõige tuntuma ettevõttega (KO), vaid hoopis Coca-Cola Enterprise’ga (CCE), mis on Coca-Cola toodete üks suurimaid pudeldajaid (8%) mahtudest, omades selleks õigusi erinevates Euroopa riikides. Buffettile meeldib toode, ettevõte näitab stabiilset müügitulu ja kasumikasvu, teenib vabaraha, maksab 2% yieldi dividendiks ning kaupleb soodsama hinnataseme juures kui Coca-Cola (CCE trailing PE 17x vs KO 22). Eeldades ca 30% preemiat praegusele turuhinnale otsa kujuneks market capiks 15 miljardit dollarit, mis oleks Berkshire jaoks oluliselt suupärasem tükk, arvestades viimase ca 50 mld rahavaru. Või kui Berkshire pole huvitatud, äkki võib Coca-Cola olla viimasel ajal suurenenud M&A tehingute valguses huvitatud, sest 2010. nad juba omandasid CCE Põhja-Ameerika varad. Ma usun, et seda firmat tasub radaril hoida.

    CCE aktsiagraafik
  • USA pakendatud toidu müüja, ConAgra Foods, aktsia tegi -7,3% kukkumise (@ $30,47), kuna ettevõte kärpis neljanda kvartali kasumiprognoosi. $12,8 mld suuruse turuväärtusega ettevõte langetas neljanda kvartali EPSi $0,55 peale aktsia kohta varasema $0,60 pealt. Kasumiprognoosi langetamise põhjuseks on jaekaupade üksuse müügi nõrkus ning oma kaubamärgi üksuse kasumi vähenemine. Ettevõte lisas ka, et kvartalis tehakse $681 mln ulatuses varade mahakandmisi. Ettevõte prognoosib tulemuste stabiliseerumist uuel majandusaastal, prognoosides EPSi kasvuks umbes 5% (vs analüütikute 7% kasvuootus).
  • VIX ehk hirmuindeks sama madalal nagu 2007.a alguses

  • Suurbritannia mai jaemüük (autodeta) kahanes aprilliga võrreldes -0,5%, mis oli 0,1pp võrra vähem kui prognoosis konsensus. Aasta baasil aeglustus jaemüügi kasv ilma autodeta 7,4% pealt 4,7% peale.
  • Blackberry väljas oodatust paremate numbritega, aktsia eelturul +7%

    BlackBerry prelim ($0.11) vs ($0.26) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $966 mln vs $926.18 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    BlackBerry anticipates maintaining its strong cash position, while increasingly looking for opportunities to prudently invest in growth. The Company is targeting break-even cash flow results by the end of fiscal 2015.
  • Esmased töötu abiraha taotlused üsna ootuspärased

    Initial Claims 312K vs 313K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to318 K from 317K
    Continuing Claims 2.561 mln vs 2.638 mln Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 2.615 mln from 2.614 mln
  • Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:

    * Agco Corp : Global Hunter Securities starts with neutral rating; price target $58
    * Alamo Group : Global Hunter Securities starts with neutral rating; price target $51
    * Altera Corp : FBR raises target price to $47 from $45; rating outperform
    * American Electric Power : Jefferies raises price target to $56 from $55;rating hold
    * AngioDynamics : Canaccord Genuity raises to buy from hold
    * AngioDynamics : Canaccord Genuity raises target price to $20 from $16.25
    * Bill Barrett : Mizuho Securities cuts to neutral from buy; price target to $28
    * Bonanza Creek Energy Inc : Mizuho raises target price to $70 from $61; rating buy
    * Bruker Corp : Wells Fargo raises to outperform rating
    * Capital One : Bernstein raises target price to $95 from $87; rating outperform
    * Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. : MLV & Co raises target price to $75 from $70; rating buy
    * CDW Corp : Barclays raises price target to $36 from $34; rating overweight
    * Cemex : Jefferies re-initiates coverage with hold
    * Cisco Systems : Buckingham research starts with neutral rating
    * CNH Industrial : Global Hunter Securities starts with reduce rating; target $9
    * Columbus McKinnon Corp : Global Hunter Securities starts with neutral; target $27
    * Communityone Bancorp : KBW starts with a marketperform rating; $11.50 price target
    * Conagra Foods Inc : BofA Merrill cuts to underperform from buy
    * Concho Resources : SunTrust Robinson raises target to $159 from $151; rating buy
    * Corporate Executive Board : Barclays cuts target to $80 from $85; rating overweight
    * Darden Restaurants : Susquehanna raises target price to $49 from $46;rating neutral
    * Dean Foods Co : BMO raises target price to $21 from $18; rating outperform
    * Deere : Global Hunter Securities starts with neutral rating; price target $90
    * Diamondback Energy : Roth raises target price to $91 from $77 ; rating neutral
    * Diamond Foods : Barclays raises to overweight from equal weight rating
    * Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc : BTIG starts with sell rating; target price $50
    * Durata Therapeutics : JMP Securities ups target to $22 from $19;market outperform
    * Emerge Energy Services : Stifel raises target price to $120 from $85; rating buy
    * Enbridge Energy Partners : RBC raises target to $32 from $30; rating sector perform
    * Ensco : Barclays cuts target price to $40 from $42; rating equal weight
    * EOG Resources Inc : KLR Group cuts to accumulate from buy rating
    * Extreme Networks : Buckingham Research starts with neutral
    * F5 Networks : Buckingham research starts with neutral rating
    * FedEx Corp : Cowen and Company raises target to $155 from $136; market perform
    * FedEx Corp : RBC ups to sector perform from underperform; target to $155 from $125
    * FedEx Corp : Deutsche Bank raises target price to $178 from $176; rating buy
    * Finish Line Inc : Susquehanna raises target price to $34 from $33; rating positive
    * Fluor Corp : Global Hunter Securities starts with accumulate rating
    * Golden Minerals Co : ROTH raises price target to $1.20 from $1; rating buy
    * Horizon Technology Finance : KBW raises target to $14 from $13;rating underperform
    * Hudson Pacific Properties : KeyBanc raises to buy from hold
    * Hyster-Yale Materials : Global Hunter Securities starts with spec buy; price $104
    * Jabil Circuit : UBS raises target price to $23 from $22; rating buy
    * JD.Com : Nomura starts with neutral rating; price target of $27
    * Juniper Networks : Buckingham Research starts with buy rating
    * Juniper Networks : Mizuho cuts to neutral from buy; target to $26 from $32
    * Kayne Anderson Energy Development : Stifel cuts to hold from buy
    * Keurig Green Mountain Inc : BTIG starts with neutral rating
    * Keycorp : Morgan Stanley raises target price to $15; rating equal-weight
    * Kirby Corp : RBC raises price target to $127 from $122; rating outperform
    * La-Z-Boy In : BB&T Capital raises to buy from hold
    * Manitowoc Company : Global Hunter Securities starts with neutral; target price $30
    * Matrix : Global Hunter Securities starts with neutral rating; price target $32
    * Measurement Specialties Inc : Needham cuts to hold from buy rating
    * Micros Systems : William Blair cuts to a market perform rating
    * Monster Beverage Corp : Wells Fargo starts with outperform rating
    * Monster Beverage Corp : BTIG starts with buy rating; target price $90
    * NGL Energy Partners Lp : RBC raises target price to $50 from $47;rating outperform
    * NVIDIA Corp : BofA Merrill cuts to underperform from neutral
    * Points International : Ascendiant Capital raises target to $36 from $35; buy
    * Polypore International Inc : Wedbush cuts to neutral from outperform
    * Primoris Services : Global Hunter Securities starts with accumulate rating
    * Quanta Services Inc : Global Hunter Securities starts with buy; target price $41
    * Radware Ltd : Buckingham Research starts with neutral
    * RCS Capital : Barclays starts with an overweight rating
    * RCS Capital : Barclays starts with $25 price target
    * Red Hat Inc : Susquehanna raises target price to $57 from $54; rating neutral
    * Rex Energy : Imperial Capital starts with outperform; price target $25
    * Rose Rock Midstream : Goldman Sachs starts with buy
    * Semgroup Corp : Goldman Sachs starts with buy
    * Spirit Aerosystems Holdings Inc : Sterne Agee raises to buy
    * Starbucks Corp : UBS raises to buy from neutral
    * Synaptics : Sterne Agee raises target price to $105 from $83; rating buy
    * TE Connectivity : UBS raises target price to $68 from $66; rating buy
    * Terex Corp : Global Hunter Securities starts with accumulate rating; target $47
    * The Exone Company : Brean starts with hold rating
    * Trade Street Residential : Ladenburg Thalmann ups target to $8.75 from $8.50; buy
    * Trulia : RBC cuts to sector perform from outperform
    * United Technologies : Morgan Stanley raises target by $1 to $129;rating overweight
    * Vista Gold Corp : HC WainWright starts with buy
    * Voxeljet AG : Brean starts with hold
    * Zoetis : BMO raises target price to $37 from $35; rating outperform
  • Caterpillari masinate kolme kuu müügi YoY langus aeglustus marginaalselt mais, ainsana särab Põhja-Ameerika
  • ORCL jääb ootustele alla:
    Oracle prelim $0.92 vs $0.95 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $11.33 bln vs $11.47 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Aktsia reageeris järelkauplemisel tulemustele 7%-lise langusega ja kaupleb hetkel $39,50 kandis.

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