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Börsipäev 1. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Aktsiaturgudel jätkub suhteliselt vaikne ja kitsas koridoris kauplemine ning ei ole väga põhjust arvata, et enne neljapäeval avaldatavat juuni tööjõuraportit sentimendis suuri muutusi aset leiaks. S&P 500 sulgus sisuliselt samal tasemel, kus alustati, samamoodi ka Stoxx 600 indeks.

    Makrouudiste tasandil selgus, et eurotsooni juuni inflatsioon vastas ootustele, jäädes mulluse baasil stabiilseks 0,5% peale (tuuminflatsioon 0,8%). Euroala maikuu laenustatistika peegeldas marginaalset muutust võrreldes eelnevate kuudega, kui erasektorile väljastatud laenude mahu langus aeglustus aastasel baasil -1,1% pealt -0,9%ni. Majapidamistele väljastatud laenude kasv kiirenes 0,4% pealt 0,5% peale, äriklientide puhul aga oli aga YoY muutus -2,5% (aprillis -2,8%).

    Ühendriikides kukkus Chicago PMI oodatud 63,0 punkti asemel juunis 62,6 punktini (mais 65,5 punkti), kuid sentimendi mõttes aitasid seda tasakaalustada majade pooleliolevad müügitehingud, kerkides mais aprilliga võrreldes 6,1% (prognoositi 1,5%). Kuigi aastatagusega võrreldes tehti siiski -6,9% võrra tehinguid vähem, oli mai näitaja parim alates eelmise aasta septembrist ning viitab sellele, et järgnevate kuude olemasolevate majade müük võib tõusta.

    Aasia on uus kvartal alanud pigem positiivsel noodil eesotsas Jaapaniga, kus Nikkei 225 indeks kauples kirjutamise hetkel protsendi jagu kõrgemal. Ehkki enam kui 10 tuhande ettevõtte küsitlusel põhinev Tankani indeks jäi teises kvartalis oodatust nõrgemaks, siis julgustavaks oli selle juures info, et suurem arv vastajatest kavatseb tõsta kapitaliinvesteeringuid, mis annab lootust näha majanduse edasist taastumist pärast müügimaksu põhjustatud tagasilööki teises kvartalis. Antud osakaal kerkis esimese kvartali 0,1% pealt teises kvartalis 7,4% peale, mis on kõrgeim tase alates 2007.a Lisaks sellele revideeriti Jaapani töötleva tööstuse juuni lõplik PMI 51,1 punkti pealt 51,5 punkti peale.

    Jaapani Tankani küsitluses suurte ettevõtete kapitaliinvesteeringud (%)


    Hiinas aga jäi turu reaktsioon suhteliselt vaoshoituks pärast ametliku töötleva tööstuse PMI avaldamist, mis tõusis juunis 0,2 punkti 51,0 punktini (kõrgeim alates detsembrist), ühtides analüütikute ootustega. HSBC lõplik näitaja revideeriti küll 0,1 punkti madalamaks 50,7 punkti peale aga esimest korda sel aastal on mõlemad indeksid üle 50 punkti ning viitavad Hiina töötleva tööstuse aktiivsuse mõõdukale kasvule.

    Tänase päeva fookus langeb töötleva tööstuse juuni PMI indeksitele, mis tulevad avaldamisele nii Euroopas kui USAs. Suuremat huvi võiksid pakkuda veel Saksamaa juuni tööturu statistika ja USA juuni automüük.

    10.15 Hispaania töötleva tööstuse PMI (juuni)
    10.45 Itaalia töötleva tööstuse PMI (juuni)
    10.50 Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse PMI (juuni lõplik)
    10.55 Saksamaa töötute arvu muutus (juuni)
    10.55 Saksamaa töötleva tööstuse PMI (juuni lõplik)
    11.00 Itaalia töötuse määr (mai)
    11.00 Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse PMI (juuni lõplik)
    11.30 Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse PMI (juuni)
    12.00 Eurotsooni töötuse määr (mai)
    16.45 USA Markiti töötleva tööstuse PMI (juuni lõplik)
    17.00 USA töötleva tööstuse ISM (juuni)
    17.00 USA ehituskulutuste muutus (mai)

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,1% kõrgemal.

  • USA tehnoloogiaettevõtte, Yahoo, aktsia osteti +2,6% kõrgemale (@ $35,13), kuna Piper Jaffray tõstis ettevõtte aktsia soovituse „overweight“ peale varasema „neutral“ pealt. Analüüsimaja hinnangul on praegusel hinnatasemel Alibaba osalus alahinnatud ning Alibaba osaluse õiglasele väärtusele viimine lisaks Yahoo aktsiale $6 aktsia kohta. Tulenevalt sellest tõstis Piper Jaffray Yahoo aktsia hinnasihi $43 peale varasema $37 pealt. Samas analüüsimaja teatas ka, et järgmiste aastate jooksul prognoosivad nad Yahoo äritegevuse kasvult jäämist alla sektori keskmist.

  • MACAU JUNE CASINO REV FALLS 3.7% Y/Y; FIRST DROP SINCE 2009

    Eeldatavalt on selle taga suuresti siiski jalgpalli MM
  • Analüüsimajadelt veidi kommentaare

    Daily Mail Valuation Doesn’t Reflect Positives; Barclays Raises to overweight from equalweight
    • Barclays: In past yr Daily Mail delivered mostly unchanged 2015 consensus EPS ests, peers saw mostly substantial EPS cuts
    • 2015 consensus EPS ests. stayed unchanged for Daily Mail despite more asset sales vs acquisitions, absorbing 5% negative FX impact on EPS
    • Formerly had concerns about high valuations placed on Internet units, RMS(one) prospects
    • However, Zoopla IPO resolved valuation uncertainty, MailOnline multiples undemanding, fit with SOTP upside
    • RMS(one) delay understood by mkt
    • Recent underperformance may be due to sentiment on U.K. consumer, housing mkt stocks; <25% of Ebita exposed to U.K. macro, rest seeing good momentum
    • Sees co. announcing new buyback in November
    Dab Bank Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 3,4 to 3,9 (Close 3,79)
    Qsc Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 4,4 to 3,5 (Close 3,05)
    Plastic Omnium Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT Eu25 (Close 22,93)
    Securitas Raised to Buy vs Hold at Nordea; PT 78 to 96 (Close 79,25)
    Straumann Added to Small and Mid Cap Focus List at Credit Suisse; PT SFr 265 to 270
    • Straumann has highest upside in European Healthcare with value market segment a “major underestimated growth opportunity,” Credit Suisse says in note today.
    • Credit Suisse: Sees co. organic growth of 4%, 6%, 7% for 2014-2016 respectively; says 1% market share gain would boost EPS ~3%
    • Raises its est. for 2015 value dental implant market segment size by $500m to $1.83b
    • Ests. EPS accretion of ~17%-22% for Straumann if it were to purchase Nobel Biocare, assuming industry avg. multiples, synergies
    Acerinox Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT 12 to 13 (Close 12,94)
    • We upgrade Acerinox to Neutral from Underperform and increase our target price from €12 to €13 based on our higher EBITDA estimate for 2015E of €500m. This upgrade in rating is however more of a defensive move than aggressive, and in part reflects our downgrade of Outokumpu above, which in itself is relatively defensive in nature. Although we still think Acerinox's valuation can be seen as full relative to peers, we consider the Acerinox management team to be very strong and think the NAS mill in the US is the most efficiently-run stainless mill worldwide, though we do maintain our concerns over capital allocation strategy with regards the Bahru project in Malaysia.
    Outokumpu Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse; Pt 7,75 to 7,56 (Close 7,34)
    • We downgrade Outokumpu to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds given how well the stock has performed (albeit from a low level), its lack of leverage to base prices (it is heavily contract based) and our belief that a lot still needs to be done to restructure the company into a profitable situation. Hence, there is possible execution risk on the cost savings and Calvert ramp up, which could create disappointment given that at current levels a very different scenario is being baked in vs. when we double upgraded the stock to Outperform in March.
    • While on the two year time horizon we think there is still a significant amount of potential upside (in a realistic bull case for base prices potentially > €0.50/sh), this requires greater clarity on both the cycle and also delivery on the restructuring of the company and as such we think the stock should be due a reasonably material pause for breath in the meantime.
    Piraeus Bank Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu1.95 (Close 1,62)
    Bunzl Removed From UBS’s Least Preferred List
    Securitas Added to UBS’s Least Preferred List
    Societe Generale Added to UBS’s Most Preferred List
    G4S Rated New Buy at UBS; PT 310p (Close 255,2)
    Hiag Immobilien Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT Sf87 6:41
    • Why Outperform? (1) HIAG Immobilien pursues a focused strategy of value creation, which differs from that of its peers and should help capture the full potential of the entire property life-cycle. (2) The company has recorded strong growth over the past five years. Between 2008 and 2013, its property portfolio more than doubled to SFr1,065m, from SFr506m. We look for further growth. (3) HIAG Immobilien has achieved above-average net returns. In 2013, the company earned a net interest spread of 2.35% with its total property portfolio, which ranks it third among its Swiss peers. (4) We expect the company to return a large portion (c35%) of its net income to its shareholders.
    • What are the potential risks? (1) The current 'super cycle' in the Swiss real estate market could come to an end; (2) record-low interest rate levels could rise; and (3) HIAG could fail to obtain permits needed to start projects.
    Kloeckner & Co Cut to Underperform vs Outperform: Credit Suisse; PT remains at 13 EUR (Close 10,98)
    • We double downgrade Kloeckner to Underperform from Outperform, as we consider the company largely a pureplay on a lackluster cycle, despite various self-help measures and the Riedo acquisition. We reduce our 2014E EBITDA estimate to €193m from €215m, vs. €203m cons. A key disadvantage for Kloeckner vs. non-integrated European steel mills is it does not benefit from lower raw material costs offsetting lower steel prices, instead suffering from lower prices in isolation.
    Alstom Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Eu27 (Close 26,62)
    Daimler Preferred Over BMW on Margins, New Models, JPMorgan Says
    • Daimler (reiterated overweight) has superior product momentum, pricing power, and Mercedes-Benz car margins will expand through year on cost savings, JPMorgan says in note.
    • New Mercedes car models will allow for smaller price discounts in China and Europe; has superior strategy for new vehicle platforms
    • BMW (reiterated neutral) margins might stabilize at best, hasn’t been able to reduce price discounts: JPM
  • Saksamaa töötute arv kasvas 9 tuhat oodatud -10K languse asemel aga töötuse määra see ei kõigutanud

    GERMANY JUN UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +9K V -10KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.7% V 6.7%E
  • eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse juuni lõplik PMI revideeriti kümnendiku võrra allapoole. Hispaania särab nõrgemate tuumikriikide kõrval

    Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun F): 51.8 actual vs 51.9 estimated; 52.2 prior.
    Italy Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 52.6 actual vs 53.2 estimated; 53.2 prior.
    France Manufacturing PMI (Jun F): 48.2 actual vs 47.8 estimated; 49.6 prior.
    Spain Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 54.6 actual vs 53.0 estimated; 52.9 prior
    Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jun F) 52.0 actual vs 52.4 prior and expected; 52.3 prior
  • Suurbritannia töötlev tööstus näitas juunis taas väga kõrget aktiivsust, täpsemalt kerkis PMI indeks 0,5 punkti 57,5 punktini (oodati langust 56,8 punktini), mis märgib teiseks kõrgeimat taset viimase 40 kuu jooksul. Edasi paisuvad tellimusteraamatud hoiavad ilmselt ka lähitulevikus kõiki silindreid töös.

    The level of incoming new business rose at the fastest pace since November 2013 and to one of the greatest extents since the survey began in 1992. The domestic market remained the prime source of new contract wins, although inflows of new export business also stren gthened.
  • Euroala töötuse määr oli mais 11,6%, mis märkis sama taset nagu aprillis. Aga kuna aprilli näit revideeriti 0,1pp võrra madalamaks ja konsensus prognoosis samaks jäämist 11,7% peal, siis osutus tegelik number paremaks.

  • Chrysleri USA juuni automüük parem kui oodati

    CHRYSLER JUNE U.S. AUTO SALES UP 9.2%, EST. UP 5.9%
  • Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:

    * Agios Pharmaceuticals : Citigroup starts with buy
    * Allegheny Technologies : Cowen and Co raises target to $48 from $35; market perform
    * Amicus Therapeutics : Leerink raises to outperform from market perform
    * Amicus Therapeutics : Leerink raises price target to $6 from $2.50
    * Amicus Therapeutics : Janney raises to buy from neutral
    * Arc Group Worldwide : Benzinga starts with outperform
    * Arista Networks : Barclays starts with overweight rating; price target $75
    * Arista Networks : Credit Suisse starts with outperform; price target $90
    * Arista Networks : Deutsche Bank starts with buy
    * Arista Networks : JMP Securities starts with market outperform; $85 price target
    * Arista Networks : RBC starts with outperform
    * Arista Networks : Stifel starts with hold
    * Arista Networks : Wells Fargo starts with outperform
    * Arista Networks : Pacific Crest starts with outperform; price target $73
    * Arista Networks : Cowen and Company starts with outperform; price target $70
    * Arista Networks : Needham starts with buy; target price $75
    * Arista Networks : William Blair starts with market perform rating
    * Arista Networks : Morgan Stanley starts with overweight; price target $77
    * Arista Networks : Oppenheimer starts with perform
    * Arista Networks : Raymond James starts with market perform
    * Athlon : Canaccord Genuity starts with buy
    * Autodesk : Cowen and Company raises target to $58 from $52; rating market perform
    * Autodesk : Baird raises price target to $60 from $56; rating outperform
    * BlackRock : JP Morgan raises target price to $366.50 from $354
    * Boyd Gaming Corp : Deutsche Bank raises target price to $11 from $9; rating hold
    * BPZ Resources Inc : Brean starts with buy; target price $4
    * Bruker Corp : Cowen and Company raises target to $27.50 from $25; outperform
    * Callon Petroleum : Canaccord Genuity starts with buy
    * Cascade Microtech : Canaccord Genuity assumes coverage with buy; price target $16
    * Centerpoint Energy : RBC raises price target to $28 from $26; rating outperform
    * CenterPoint Energy : BMO raises target price to $28 from $27; rating outperform
    * Cimarex : Canaccord Genuity starts with buy
    * Cimarex : Topeka Capital raises price target to $146 from $130; hold rating
    * ComScore : Goldman Sachs raises to buy from neutral
    * Concho : Canaccord Genuity starts with buy
    * Connectone Bancorp : KBW adjusts price target to $23; rating outperform
    * Consolidated Communications : Jefferies raises target to $24 from $22; rating buy
    * Coty : BMO starts with outperform; $19 target price
    * Diamondback : Canaccord Genuity starts with buy
    * Diamondback : Wunderlich raises price target to $110 from $85; rating buy
    * Dolby : B. Riley starts with neutral rating
    * DTS : B. Riley starts with buy rating
    * Endurance Specialty : BofA Merrill raises to buy from neutral
    * Energen : Canaccord Genuity starts with buy
    * Entergy : Jefferies raises price target to $81 from $79; rating hold
    * Federated Investors : JP Morgan raises target price to $26.50 from $25
    * Fidelity National Financial : KBW adjusts target to $33 from $37; rating outperform
    * Franklin Resources : JP Morgan raises target price to $61 from $58
    * FS Investment CORP : Wells Fargo starts with outperform rating
    * Goldman Sachs : Nomura raises target price to $158 from $156
    * Goldman Sachs : Bernstein cuts target price to $180 from $205
    * Goldman Sachs : Bernstein cuts to market perform from outperform
    * H&E Equipment : KeyBanc raises to buy from hold rating
    * Health Net : Leerink raises target price to $45 from $37; rating market perform
    * Heartland Payment Systems : SunTrust raises target to $54 from $51; rating buy
    * Heritage-Crystal Clean Inc : Baird cuts to neutral rating
    * iGATE Corp : Jefferies raises to buy from hold; price target to $43 from $38
    * Invesco Ltd : Jefferies raises price target to $44 from $40; rating buy
    * Invesco Ltd : JP Morgan raises target price to $43 from $42
    * J&J : Piper Jaffray raises price target to $110 from $105; rating neutral
    * Janus Capital Group : JP Morgan raises target price to $10.50 from $10
    * JD.Com Inc : Jefferies starts with buy; price target $36
    * JD.Com Inc : Piper Jaffray starts with neutral rating; price target $29
    * JD.Com Inc : Barclays starts with an overweight rating; price target $35
    * JD.com Inc : Cowen and Company starts with market perform; target price $30
    * JD.com Inc : SunTrust Robinson starts with buy rating; $35 target price
    * Laredo Petroleum Inc : Canaccord Genuity starts with buy ratings
    * Mannkind Corp : MLV & CO cuts to hold from buy; raises price target to $11
    * Matador Resources Co : Canaccord Genuity starts with buy ratings
    * Moody's Corp : Credit Suisse raises target to $102 from $97; rating outperform
    * Nabors Industries Ltd : Raymond James raises to outperform from market perform
    * Netflix : Goldman Sachs raises to buy from neutral
    * Nordstrom Inc : Topeka raises price target to $75 from $73; rating buy
    * Oasis Petroleum : Canaccord Genuity raises price target to $64 from $55; rating buy
    * Orbital Sciences : Jefferies raises price target to $37 from $31; rating buy
    * Perkinelmer : Cowen and Company raises target to $53 from $50; rating outperform
    * Pioneer Natural Resources : Canaccord Genuity starts with buy
    * Power Integrations Inc : Stifel raises target price to $66 from $64; rating buy
    * PPG Industries : Baird raises price target to $225 from $215; rating outperform
    * Pzena Investment Management Inc : JP Morgan cuts target price to $12 from $12.50
    * Regency Centers :Barclays raises price target to $51 from $47; rating equal weight
    * Ring Energy : Canaccord Genuity starts with buy
    * Stryker Corp : Cantor Fitzgerald raises price target to $84 from $78; rating hold
    * Sunstone Hotel : Wells Fargo cuts to market perform
    * Symantec : BMO cuts to market perform from outperform; ups target to $24 from $22
    * Synageva Biopharma Corp : Citigroup starts with neutral -
    * Synageva Biopharma Corp : Janney raises fair value to $111 from $107; rating buy
    * T. Rowe Price Group Inc : JP Morgan raises target price to $98 from $97.50
    * Techtarget : Jefferies starts with buy; price target $12
    * Techtarget : Needham starts with buy rating; price target $11
    * Time Warner : Goldman Sachs cuts to neutral from buy
    * Timken Co : BB&T cuts price target to $57 from $78; rating buy
    * Triumph Group Inc : RBC cuts to underperform from sector perform
    * Triumph Group Inc : RBC cuts target price to $67 from $73
    * Twenty-First Century Fox : Goldman Sachs cuts to buy
    * United Rentals : KeyBanc raises target price to $122 from $105; rating buy
    * Urban Outfitters : Wedbush cuts to neutral from outperform; target to $37 from $46
    * Viasat Inc : Macquarie cuts target price to $63 from $65; rating neutral
    * West Corp : Evercore raises target price to $33 from $28; rating overweight
    * Wex Inc : Evercore raises target price to $92 from $91; rating equalweight
    * Xerox : Citigroup starts with neutral
  • GM JUNE U.S. AUTO SALES UP 1%, EST. DOWN 6.3%
    FORD JUNE U.S. LIGHT-VEHICLE SALES DOWN 5.8%, EST. DOWN 6.6%

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