Börsipäev 11. september
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Sessiooni alguses jäeti USA turgudel mulje, et langust ollakse valmis kolmandasse päeva pikendama, kuid ostjad saabusid lõpuks appi. S&P 500 sulgus 0,4% kõrgemal, aga üsna väsinud ja aeglane liikumine näitab, et hädasti oleks vaja mõjuvat katalüsaatorit, mis annaks julgust tänastelt tasemetelt veel gaasi vajutada. Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 -0,1% madalamal.
Aasias on aktsiaturud nautimas plusspäeva. Hiina Shanghai Composite jõudis ligi kaheksa kuu tippu ning kaupleb aasta alguse tasemega võrreldes 10% kõrgemal. Täna avaldatud augustikuu inflatsioon aeglustus 2,3% pealt 2,0%ni, osutudes madalamaks võrreldes analüütikute prognoosiga ning sütitades spekulatsioone, et keskpangal on rohkem ruumi majandust stimuleerida, kuna ametlik inflatsiooni eesmärk on 3,5%. Tootjahinnaindeksi langus kiirenes augustis -0,9% pealt -1,2% peale, mis räägib samuti siseturu tagasihoidlikumast nõudlusest.
Tänaste makrouudiste tähelepanu langeb augustikuu inflatsiooni näitajatele mitmel pool Euroopas. Ühendriikides jälgitakse aga möödunud nädala töötu abiraha taotlusi.
09.00 Saksamaa inflatsioon (augusti lõplik)
09.45 Prantsusmaa inflatsioon (august)
10.00 Hispaania kinnisvaratehingute arv (juuli)
10.30 Rootsi inflatsioon (august)
15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
21.00 USA valitsuse eelarve tasakaal (august)
Euroopa indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% kõrgemal, USA omad aga -0,1% punases. -
Saksamaa augustikuu lõplik inflatsioon kinnitati 0,8% YoY muutuse näol
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Prantsusmaa inflatsioon aeglustus 0,5% pealt 0,4% peale, mis ühtis konsensuse prognoosiga
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Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused
Standard Life Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
CRH Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
William Hill Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT 385 t 365 (Close 349,4)
Spirax-Sarco Rated New Underperform at Exane; PT 2,600p (Close 2901)
Tryg Raised to Conviction Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT 510 to 738 (Close 574,5)
TeliaSonera Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 50 to 48 (Close 50,15)
Vinci Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 58 to 54 (Close 47,03)
Orange Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 12,1 to 12,7 (Close 11,47)
Moncler Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
EDP Cut to Underperform at RBC Capital; PT 3,25 to 3,5 (Close 3,55)
RWE Raised to Outperform at RBC Capital; PT 27 to 35 (Close 31,44)
Bwin.Party Digital Raised From Underweight to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Nordgold Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley, PT $1,95 (Close 1,45)
• Cost cutting and upgraded guidance leave Nordgold on 2.8x EV/EBITDA 2014e (71% discount to African peers), 3.9x P/E (87% discount), with healthy 22.5% 2014e FCFE yield to support a 7.6% 2014e DY. Consensus upgrades appear due (we are +16% vs. cons on 2014e EBITDA), as we expect volumes to beat guidance, and it has most cost-cutting room: Lefa (its 2nd largest mine) remains high cost. We struggle to find reasons beyond low liquidity for low multiples; Nordgold appears remarkably undervalued vs. global peers on 2014e P/B vs. ROE (0.4x vs. 1.4x average for 11% ROE vs. 6.0% average). A liquidity event would be key to unlocking equity value, we believe.
Polymetal International PT Set at 535p at Morgan Stanley, Resumed at Equalweight (Close 514)
Generali Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
Dixy Group Raised From Underweight to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Nyrstar Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Tenaris Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $60 (Close 44,63)
• We are upgrading TS, raising estimates and PT on improving pricing outlook. We believe the market is (i) underestimating the impact a US price inflection will have on global prices and (ii) overestimating new OCTG capacity coming into the market.
Centrica Cut to Underperform vs Sector Perform at RBC Capital; PT 320 to 310 (Close 324,7)
Terna Cut to Underperform From Sector Perform at RBC Capital; PT 4,0 (Close 3,97)
Enagas Cut to Sector Perform From Outperform at RBC Capital; PT 22 to 27 (Close 25,43)
TUI Travel Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 420 to 489 (Close 360,2)
• TT shares have underperformed the sector by 8% since the proposed TUI AG merger was announced. We expect enhanced synergies to be targeted (deadline 19 Sept) and include 63p per share of merger benefits in our new 489p TP, which implies 35% potential upside. A fully loaded bull case implies 101p per share of incremental value. -
Euroopa suurima lennukompanii Air France-KLM aktsia kaupleb +2,8% kõrgemal (@ €8,71), kuna ettevõte teatas, et plaanib saavutada 8-10% majandusaasta ärikasumi (EBITDAR) kasvu perioodil 2013-2017. Lisaks on lennukompanii eesmärgiks 2017. aastaks langetada korrigeeritud netovõla/EBITDAR suhtarv alla 2,5. Lennukompanii kasumi kasvu eesmärgi saavutamine põhineb muu hulgas ka Transavia kaubamärgi arendamises Euroopa juhtivate odavlennukompaniide hulka. Air France’i plaanide kohaselt on 2017. aastaks Transavial 100 lennukist koosnev lennukipark, aastane reisijate arv ulatub üle 20 miljoni ning 2018. aastal jõutakse ärikasumisse.
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Lululemon suudab mutta trambitud ootustele lõpuks vastata, aktsia eelturul selle peale +8%
Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.33 per share, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.29; revenues rose 13.4% year/year to $390.7 mln vs the $376.8 mln consensus.
Q3
Co issues in-line guidance for Q, sees EPS of $0.36-0.38 vs. $0.38 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q revs of $420-425 mln vs. $422.07 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
LULU sees Q3 comparable store sales increase in the low single digits vs +1.8% estimate
FY2015
Co issues upside guidance for FY15, sees EPS of $1.72-1.77 vs. $1.74 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY15 revs of $1.78-1.80 bln vs. $1.78 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
LULU sees FY15 comparable store sales of increase in the low single digits vs +low single digits and +2% estimate
LULU aktsiahind ja 2015. majandusaasta EPS ootus -
EMC explores selling stake in VMware
http://nypost.com/2014/09/11/emc-explores-selling-stake-in-vmware/ -
USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused oodatust veidi kõrgemad
Initial Claims 315K vs 300K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 304K from 302K
Continuing Claims 2.487 mln vs 2.490 mln Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 2.478 mln from 2.464 mln -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $18
SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie
Crocs (CROX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Buckingham Research
Express Scripts (ESRX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Macy's (M) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee
CBOE Holdings (CBOE) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $63
CME Group (CME) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $85
F5 Networks (FFIV) tgt raised to $150 from $135 at Deutsche Bank; Buy
GrubHub (GRUB) initiated with a Mkt Perform at Barrington Research
IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $202
NASDAQ (NDAQ) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $46
Twitter (TWTR) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt $62
