Muudatused analüütikute hinnangutes
Log in or create an account to leave a comment
-
Koondame edaspidi analüütikute hinnangute muutusi siia eraldi foorumiteema alla, et neid oleks parem radaril hoida ja vajadusel tagantjärele lihtsam üles leida. Disclaimerina olgu öeldud, et nende väljatoomine siin ei tähenda, et LHV kannustaks mainitud väärtpabereid ostma või müüma, vaid iga investor või kaupleja peab langetama iseseisva otsuse.
Soovitused Euroopas:
Rotork Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 2550 to 2900 (Close 2764)
Kazakhmys Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; Pt 360 to 375 (Close 280,4)
CEZ Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 530 to 700 (Close 644,9)
Boliden Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT SEK120 to 135 (Close 116,1)
Acerinox Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 8,5 to 12,0 (Close 13,0)
Outokumpu Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 6,5 to 8,0 (Close 6,09)
• By 2016 we expect European stainless capacity to run at 89% utilisation, up from 63% in 2013. This should be the result of a more radical closure programme than the market anticipates (in total 28% of installed capacity) and marks the end of a decade of overcapacity that has undermined any price discipline and rendered stocks uninvestable. Together with a possible easing of the Asian import pressure triggered by the Indonesian export ban and further demand recovery, we see the preconditions for a potential tightening of the market. Market tightening would benefit all European players, which have significant earnings sensitivity to an increase in prices.
Danske Bank Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 160 to 185 (Close 161,4)
Moncler Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank, PT Eu14 (Close 12,1)
• Moncler, leading outerwear luxury brand, appears well positioned to become a global luxury brand in the next decade, thanks to a clear roadmap of detail rollout, geographical expansion, and development of its product range from outerwear into new categories. A focused management team with a solid track record is leading this transformation and should be able to deliver sales and EPS CAGR of 13% and 20% in 2013-17E. Moncler trades at 20.9x PE15, almost a 15% premium to the luxury sector, but a 30% discount on 2015 PEG ratio, reflecting a superior growth profile.
Eiffage Cut to Neutral vs Buy at BofAML
Danone Reinstated Underperform at BofAML, PT Eu50 (Close 54,17)
Lindt & Spruengli Reinstated Neutral at BofAML
Nestle Reinstated Underperform at BofAML, PT Chf69 (Close 70,95)
Alstom Resumed Hold at SocGen, PT Eu31 (Close 27,65)
MOL Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT HUF15900 to 16000 (Close 12250)
Leg Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 53,5 to 57,0 (Close 57,78)
Edenred Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Nomura; PT 18,9 to 22,0 (Close 20,96)
Sonatel Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Orange Polska Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
UBS Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays
Moncler Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 15 (Close 12,1)
Hiscox Rated New Market Perform at Sanford Bernstein; PT 690p (Close 632)
Catlin Group Rated New Outperform at Sanford Bernstein; Pt 625p (Close 502)
Amlin Rated New Market Perform at Sanford Bernstein; PT 415p (Close 429,6)
Beazley Rated New Outperform at Sanford Bernstein; PT 305p (Close 259,0) -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Winnebago Industries, Inc (WGO)initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital Mkts
VeriFone Systems, Inc. (PAY) initiated with a Buy at Monness Crespi & Hardt
Nokia ( NOK) upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at HSBC Securities
Rackspace Hosting, Inc. ( RAX) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan
Tesla (TSLA) - weakness attributed to Morgan Stanley analyst comments, suggesting stock may be a bit ahead of itself
Parker Drilling Co (PKD) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at a boutique firm
Douglas Dynamics, Inc (PLOW) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird UBS -1.2% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays)
TransCanada Corp. ( TRP) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) downgraded to Neutral at DA Davidson -
Veel mõned reitingumuutused tänaseks:
CVS Health (CVS) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Cowen
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) downgraded to Sector Perform at Howard Weil; tgt lowered to $99
Symantec (SYMC) downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $26
UBS AG (UBS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Costco (COST) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $150
FedEx (FDX) target raised to $172 at Oppenheimer ahead of earnings due out Wednesday morning
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) target raised to $16 at Needham
Phillips 66 (PSX) target raised to $95 at Howard Weil
Target (TGT) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $66
Wal-Mart (WMT) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $83 -
Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Banca Popolare DI Milano Raised to Overweight vs Neutral: HSBC
Lonmin (London Listing) Assumed Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 300p (Close 214,7)
Antofagasta Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 730 to 820 (Close 761,5)
Melia Hotels Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 8,3 to 10,3 (Close 8,18)
Anglo American Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 1672,18 to 2048,11 (Close 1488,5)
Sodexo Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Restaurant Group Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Spirit Pub Co Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
Marston’s Raised to Buy vs Sell at Citi
Enterprise Inns Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Citi
Paddy Power Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Ladbrokes Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
Bwin.Party Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Citi
Rosneft Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Aveva Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 3030 to 1950 (Close 1577)
Avanti Raised to Buy vs Hold at Jefferies; PT 250p (Close 185,0)
Eutelsat Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies; PT 27,2 to 28,6 (Close 26,33)
Pearson Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 1100p 1350p (Close 1206p)
• We think the restructuring is complete, 15-20% eps growth is in prospect for 2015 and that Pearson now addresses a bigger market with a more flexible cost base.
• In US Higher Ed the worst is probably already over for declines in US student numbers. The second derivative is already seeing improvement, with student numbers down just 0.8% yoy in Spring 2014 and state funding recovery to help community college numbers. (ii) The US Schools curriculum market is already growing 3-4% in 2014 on stronger state budgets and the gradual implementation of Common Core.
• Pearson's critical Q3 trading statement is in November. If it can hold its 2014 62p-67p guidance intact then the market will focus on the jump in eps (19%) in 2015e and the potential 10% pa eps growth 2014-18e (vs -5% pa 2010-14).
Travis Perkins Rated Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 1,750p (Close 1668)
Zurich Insurance Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 292 to 285 (Close 280,1)
Hermes Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
500.Com (WBAI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Pearson Plc (PSO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
Hermes (HESAY) upgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse
Duke Energy (DUK) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Tesla Motors (TSLA) initiated with a Buy at ISI Group; tgt $320
Terex (TEX) upgraded to Buy at Stifel; tgt $40 -
Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
AB InBev Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; Pt 71 to 87 (Close 87,87)
Nestle Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; Pt 80 to 77 (Close 70,95)
Nestle Cut to Hold From Buy at Societe Generale; PT Chf77 (Close 70,95)
Stockmann Rated New Buy at Swedbank, PT Eu11.1 (Close 8,67)
Asos Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 4855 to 5000 (Close 2207)
Asos Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 3600 to 2400 (Close 2207)
Ashmore Raised as Concerns Exaggerated; HSBC Sees Entry Point
•Ashmore’s recent share price decline is excessive and offers a buying opportunity for L/T investors as margins stabilize and retail business gains momentum, HSBC says in note today.
• Revenue margins rising in some sub-asset classes
• Retail business may surprise on upside in next 12-18 months
• Says external debt yielding 5.26% means returns can be positive even as every 25bps widening in U.S. treasury means 1.4% capital loss
• Dividend of 327p for yield of 5.2% is sustainable
• Raises PT by 7.7% to 420p, Moved to to Overweight vs Neutral
Synthomer Rated New Neutral at HSBC, PT 250p (Close 224,8)
Wdf PT Cut to Eu10.3 vs Eu10.8 at Citi; Kept at Buy (Close 8,41)
Eramet Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Exane
Man Group Reinstated Equalweight at Barclays, PT 120p (Close 120,5)
HSBC replaces Standard Chartered on most-preferred list after capital levels and revenue reach turning points; DNB replaces Swedbank, is most attractive of the Nordic banks, UBS says in note today.
• HSBC, StanChart both getting closer to inflexion point
• StanChart still a buy, has fewer re-rating catalysts ahead
• DNB stock price development hinges on real estate market cooling, margin outlook, ramifications of Basel 1 on dividends, capital deficits
• Swedbank removed from most preferred
• Norway banks face better trends in earnings, realty prices, regulation than Swedish banks over next 12 months: UBS
• Svenska Handelsbanken added to least preferred on potential downside if NIM trends damp top-line growth, focus on SME asset quality trends increases
• Removes RBS from last preferred
• Reiterates most preferred on: Barclays, ING, SocGen
• Reiterates least preferred on Deutsche Bank
Norsk Hydro Rated New Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT Nok34 (Close 37,29)
Upm-Kymmene Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse
Ebro Foods Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Societe Generale
CIGNA (CI) upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna; tgt raised to $115 from $77
Mondelez Int'l (MDLZ) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale
BHP Billiton (BHP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas
Eaton (ETN) downgraded to Hold at Stifel -- Removed the co from the Stifel Income Opportunity List
General Mills (GIS) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Societe Generale
Kellogg (K) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Societe Generale
L Brands (LB) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray; tgt $61
3M (MMM) initiated with a Hold at Stifel; tgt $158
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) assumed with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Baker Hughes (BHI) upgraded to Sector Outperform at Howard Weil
Boston Properties (BXP) initiated with a Outperform at Wells Fargo
CarMax (KMX) target raised to $60 at Oppenheimer; maintain Outperform
Gap (GPS) assumed with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray
General Electric (GE) initiated with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $30
NIKE (NKE) assumed with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray -
Suurem hunnik täna Euroopast:
Veolia Reinstated Neutral at BofAML
Suez Environnement Reinstated Underperform at BofAML
ArcelorMittal Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
Banco Popolare PT Raised to EU10 at SocGen; Kept at Sell (Close 12,7)
Alfa Laval Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Lufthansa Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT 19 to 14 (Close 13,18)
Asos Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT 4415 to 2500 (Close 2180)
Bashneft Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse
Inditex Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 25 to 24,5 (Close 22,82)
Telefonica Deutschland Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 4,69 to 4,5 (Close 4,05)
3legs Resources Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies; Pt 40 to 17 (Close 16,38)
Oriflame Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT SEK140 to 134 (Close 128,9)
Direct Line Removed From UBS Most Preferred List
Aviva Added to UBS Least Preferred List, Admiral Removed
Hellenic Petroleum Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Neste Oil Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Wienerberger Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS; Pt 15,3 to 12,3
HeidelbergCement Cut to Sell vs Neutral at UBS; PT Eu63 to 53
• UBS says concerned about recent trends in Europe, where cement vols. have seen declines of ~10% in 3Q in most major markets, in note today.
• Says comparison base for Europe challenging in 4Q, 1Q15, meaning any delayed recovery will not be visible until spring/summer 2015
• Doesn’t expect major correction though sees some further downside as market incorporates weaker trends over coming months
• Says investors should continue to seek U.S. exposure, given robust trends, FX tailwinds; CRH, Buzzi Unicem are buy rated U.S. plays
Allianz Rated New Buy at UBS, PT Eu153 (Close 136,17)
Leoni Rated New Neutral at Credit Suisse, PT Eu52.9 (Close 46,26)
Elringklinger Rated New Underperform, PT Eu25.1: Credit Suisse (Close 24,64)
Rheinmetall Rated New Underperform at Credit Suisse, PT Eu45.1 (Close 42,35)
Faurecia Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse, PT Eu36 (Close 26,14)
• Our investment case is not focused on structural growth drivers, but rather on management execution and turning around loss-making business units. We believe the market is underestimating the positive effects from restructuring Faurecia's European and North American operations, which should provide more support than consensus expects. The restructuring has already had a meaningful bottom-line impact in 1H14. We see a strong 3Q14 sales performance in North America as the next near-term catalyst vs. Market expectations of 4Q14.
Valeo Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse, PT Eu119 (Close 92,2)
• Margin expansion and leverage potential underestimated: Valeo was among the most aggressive players to reduce costs post the crisis, cutting personnel expense as a % of sales by 290bps since 2008. While our revenue forecast is only moderately ahead of consensus for 2004-2017, we are 17% ahead on EPS. Our analysis suggests that the market is factoring in only c.11% operating leverage for 2015 and 2016, which is materially below our c.16% forecast. Moreover, order quality should have improved in the past two quarters given a record intake, with book to bill of 1.7x in 1H14.
Continental Added to Europe, Global Focus List at Credit Suisse; PT €201 to 208 (Close 161,18)
• We expect structural growth drivers to accelerate for Continental's automotive business from 2015. We remain bullish on its powertrain (PT) business in particular, which we expect to show strong sales growth given OEMs' increased effort to downsize engines (ramp-up of new platforms to accelerate) in order to meet stringent 2020 emission targets. Moreover, in our view the market is still not giving enough credit for its fast-growing Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) business.
Siemens Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane
Mobile Telesystems Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan
Facc Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan, PT Eu10.5 (Close 8,07)
UBI Banca Rated New Overweight at Barclays, PT Eu8.1 (Close 6,57)
Popolare Milano Rated New Equalweight at Barclays, PT Eu0.7 (Close 0,63)
Banco Popolare Rated New Underweight at Barclays, PT Eu10.4 (Close 12,7)
Inditex Cut to Market Perform vs Outperform at Raymond James
Monte Paschi Rated New Underweight at Barclays, PT Eu0.9 (Close 1,08)
Pop. Emilia PT Cut to Eu6.8 vs Eu7.1 at SocGen; Kept at Hold (Close 6,51)
TUI Travel Raised From Equalweight to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, Added to Europe Best; PT 470p to 500p (Close 366,9)
• TUI Travel is recommending an all-share offer from its parent TUI AG (0.399 exchange ratio), plus 10p in cash, giving TT minority shareholders 46% of the enlarged entity. “Future TUI” will be incorporated and headquartered in Germany (so will report in €), and listed in the UK, where we expect it will join the FTSE100 index given its proforma market cap of £5.2bn
• We are positive on “Future TUI”, and see three sources of internal upside (we already rate TUI AG OW): (1) Solid organic growth: we see a 12% EBIT CAGR 2014-17e from merger savings (at least €65m), TT’s successful Modern Mainstream strategy (Germany margins to 5% target, France break-even, Online), and strong growth in TUI Cruise (0% to 6% of EBIT ‘14-17e) This excludes upside from improved hotel occupancies. (2) Scope for cash returns: 3 of its 4 convertible bonds look set to convert, meaning we see FY15e net cash of >€1bn. On top of this, we think TUI can raise ~€1bn from its H-L stake and Online Accommodation exit. We see a €0.68 dividend by 2016, an attractive 6.2% yield. (3) Valuation support: Future TUI trades on 11x FY15e P/E and <10x FY16 (TT share price -10p cash), and a blended multiple (75% tour op. at 12x, 25% hotel/cruise 15-20x) suggests 13x is fair, plus we see c.€1bn assets that generate little income (reducing the headline P/E).
Premier Farnell Cut to Sell vs Buy at Citi
Randstad Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
Stada Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 26,0 to 29,5 (Close 32,2)
Paddy Power Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
DuPont (DD) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $75 from $67
Kohl's (KSS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Monsanto (MON) upgraded to Buy at Stifel; tgt $135
Peabody Energy (BTU) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $13 from $15
Boeing (BA) added to Franchise Pick list at Jefferies; maintain Buy
Estee Lauder (EL) assumed with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray
FedEx (FDX) tgt raised to $180 from $170 at Citigroup
Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray
V.F. Corp (VFC) target raised to $77 at Stifel -
Tänased analüüsimajade kommentaarid Euroopas:
Pop. Emilia Rated New Buy at Citi; PT Eu7.7 (Close 6,28)
SSE Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 1490p to 1620 (Close 1521)
Seadrill Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Exane
MOL Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT HUF15500 to 14000 (Close 12460)
Hiscox Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 646p (Close 641)
HeidelbergCement Cut to Sell vs Neutral at UBS
Asos Cut to Neutral vs Buy at BofAML
Deutsche Telekom Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Nokian Renkaat Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT Eu26.5 (Close 24,59)
Pirelli Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT Eu14.5 (Close 11,75)
Michelin Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT Eu95 (Close 79,62)
SABMiller Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Nomura; PT 2850 to 3600 (Close 3537)
Severstal Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $13,0 (Close 9,935)
Raspadskaya Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT RUB 30,7 to 10,1 (Close 18,24)
Nlmk Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT $10,9 to 15,2 (Close 14,88)
Evraz Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT 133p (Close 140,4)
Alrosa Removed From Goldman Ceemea Focus List, Rates Buy; PT RUB59,0 to 47,1 (Close 38,4)
Orange Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT €13,0 to 13,6 (Close 11,515)
Paragon Group Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT 421p (Close 329p)
Buy EasyJet Into Oct. 3 Trading Update, UBS Says
• EasyJet management “very confident” of medium-term plans, says UBS (reiterate buy) after yday’s CMD.
• Expect special divs., possibly in Nov.
• 4Q load factor/traffic have been strong, cost cuts are helping, Oct. 3 trading update will be “reassuring”
• Implied guidance for flat yields is conservative; est. FY pretax profit of GBP575m vs co. forecast GBP545m-GBP570m: UBS
• NOTE: FY results due Nov. 19
• Yday: EasyJet Lifts Dividend Payout Ratio, Exercises A320 Options -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
American Eagle (AEO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
V.F. Corp (VFC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc Capital Mkts
Zions Bancorp (ZION) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James; tgt raised to $35 from $33
Allstate (ALL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Evercore
Alibaba.com (BABA) initiated with a Buy at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $90
Amazon.com (AMZN) target raised to $435 at RBC Capital Mkts
Oracle (ORCL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $42 from $48
ConAgra (CAG) target raised to $35 at RBC Capital Mkts
Green Dot (GDOT) target raised to $27 at Compass Point
SanDisk (SNDK) target lowered to $112 at Stifel; maintain Buy
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna; tgt $111
Yahoo! (YHOO) target raised to $48 from $44 at Piper Jaffray ahead of BABA's IPO, Overweight; tgt raised to $43 from $39 at Cantor Fitzgerald, maintain Buy -
Mõned tänased soovituste muudatused
Nordea Raised to Buy at BofAML
SEB Cut to Underperform at BofAML
SBM Offshore Cut to Underperform at BofAML
ICAP Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
Leg Immobilien Cut to Neutral vs Buy at BofAML
Deutsche Wohnen Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Shanks Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; End-Market Could Worsen
Shanks Group cut to neutral from outperform, PT reduced to 105p from 115p, Credit Suisse says in note; sees little potential for more outperformance.
• Credit Suisse says stock’s performance has been good, however sees risk of more end-market deterioration
• Cuts FY 2015-2017 EPS est. ~8%-16% on reduced solid waste expectations, strong sterling vs euro
• No longer sees a “compelling” value proposition
• CMD on Sept. 29-30 will give Solid Waste markets update; not expected to show any improvement
• Credit Suisse will seek clarity on scope for growth
Swiss Re Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Exane
Scor Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Exane
Munich Re Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
Commerzbank Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Exane
B&m Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 290p (Close 250)
Merlin Properties Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT Eu9.30 (Close 10,3)
Uralkali Added to UBS Emerging EMEA Key Call List; PT USD 19 to 23 (Close 18,98)
Burberry Added to Europe 1 List at BofAML
Meda Rated New Buy at DNB, PT Sek120 (Close 101,5)
Standard Life Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 365 to 430 (Close 421,6)
Alrosa Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT RUB 42 (Close 38,0)
CGG Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT Eu14 to 7,7 (Close 7,6)
Pennon Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT 743p to 740p (Close 783,5)
Subsea 7 Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays; PT Nok155 to 125 (Close 91,15)
EVN AG Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Eu12,1 to 12,6 (Close 10,01)
EDP Renovaveis Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT Eu3,2 to 3,25 (Close 3,44)
Petrofac Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays; PT 1500p (Close 1048)
Budimex Raised to Buy vs Sell at ING
Kuka Rated New Buy at Citi, PT Eu55 (Close 47,35)
Safestore Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT 271p (Close 215,25)
Glaxosmithkline Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT 1700 to 1670 (Close 1449) -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Hologic (HOLX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Actavis (ACT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Walgreens (WAG) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Yahoo! (YHOO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill; downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein
Finish Line (FINL) target raised to $35 at Monness Crespi & Hardt
Humana (HUM) target raised to $126 from $117 at Jefferies; Hold
Monster Beverage (MNST) target raised to $110 at Stifel -
Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas
Volkswagen Prefs Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
BMW Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Ingenico Unthreatened by VeriFone Growth or Apple Pay: Exane
• VeriFone’s growth over last 3 qrtrs hasn’t come at Ingenico’s expense, as cos. are targeting different growth mkts, Exane says in note dated Sept. 22.
• Exane: release of Telium 3 payment terminals could push Ingenico’s margins higher
• Apple Pay doesn’t disrupt Ingenico’s business model
• Raises to outperform and increases its PT by 43% to EU100 (~27% upside)
• Separately, UBS initiates Ingenico at neutral with PT EU81
• Says Ingenico’s terminals business should see further growth in Asia, N. America
• GlobalCollect deal gives full range of payment services and cross sell opportunities; better visibility on this growth could see shrs reach EU105 (~33% upside)
Atlas Copco Raised at Barclays on Aftermarket-Led Recovery; PT SEK200 to 250 (Close 210,8)
• Atlas Copco preferred investment on aftermarket-led recovery among European mining equipment cos., Barclays says in note raising stock to overweight vs equalweight.
• Barclays: “Re-coupling” of Atlas Copco aftermarket to miners’ production looks increasingly likely, driven by higher mine capacity utilization across Atlas’ key commodities
• Stock should re-rate back to historical premium to sector, which would imply EV/sales of 3.0x
Gjensidige Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane
Cermaq Cut to Hold vs Buy at DNB
Go-Ahead Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 2270p to 2790 (Close 2443p)
Tesco PT Cut to 185p vs 210p at JPMorgan, Rates Underweight (Close 203p)
EasyJet Has ~23% Upside, Raised to Buy, Cantor Says; PT 1500p to 1600p (Close 1304p)
• EasyJet provided helpful strategy update last week, may pay another special div. in early 2015, trades at 37% discount to historic P/E, Cantor Fitzgerald says in note.
• EasyJet, Ryanair will continue to take share from flag carriers
Fortum Reinstated Buy at BofAML, PT Eu23.5 (Close 19,32)
RWE Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
GDF Suez Reinstated Neutral at BofAML, PT Eu20.8 (Close 19,71)
EDF Reinstated Buy at BofAML, PT Eu30 (Close 25,62)
Ageas Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Eu32 to 30 (Close 25,5)
Aegon Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Eu6,5 to 8,0 (Close 6,64)
Helvetia Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT Sfr480 to 520 (Close 469,75)
Monitise Rated New Buy at UBS, PT 80p (Close 32,5)
Ingenico Rated New Neutral at UBS, PT Eu81 (Close 78,72)
Portugal Telecom Raised to Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu1,9 (Close 1,77)
Siemens Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays; PT Eu110 to 100 (Close 95,88)
Prysmian Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
Campari Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
Anima Rated New Buy at Citi -
Tänane UBSi kommentaar autotööstuse kohta veidi pikemalt, näeb globaalselt müüginumbrite nõrgenemist
Recent autos sales growth data weak across the world, fixed costs rising on capacity investment and
CO2 compliance, says UBS in note.
* Reiterates underweight sector view, close to peak
* Earnings momentum slowing, trims 2014-15 ests. for European cos. by 3%-7%
* BMW cut to neutral from buy, PT to EU93 from EU105, on reduced earnings momentum
* VW pfd raised to buy from neutral, PT EU210 from EU190; new restructuring actions may restore returns at VW brand
* Valeo, Renault also have attractive valuation: UBS -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
NetApp (NTAP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Summit Research on takeout potential; tgt raised to $55 from $34
Analog Devices (ADI) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair
Clorox (CLX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; downgraded to Sell from Neutral at B. Riley & Co., tgt $77
Fluor (FLR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Chevron (CVX) initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $133
Exxon Mobil (XOM) initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $104
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $523
Valero Energy (VLO) initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $59 -
Tänased kommentaarid Euroopas:
Elekta Risk/Reward Loses Attraction; Exane Cuts to Neutral
• Exane increasingly concerned about Elekta’s ability to improve product mix, broker says in note.
• Wait for good figures may be long; wouldn’t expect early recovery signs to win investors back overnight, Exane says; cuts to neutral from outperform
Ericsson Cut as UBS Says Uplift to Wireless Capex Largely Over
• The broad increase in wireless capex has largely finished and either industry M&A or a widespread uplift in telco sales/Ebitda growth is needed for Ericsson to generate L/T upside, UBS says in note.
• UBS: Closure of co.’s thin modems business is positive catalyst that was expected to come in 2015
• Ericsson still has potential to create value through cost cuts
• If co. can turn a profit in its network roll-out business and return hardware margins to recent highs, shrs could still have ~20% upside
• Cuts to neutral vs buy, keeps PT SEK93 (~1% upside)
Zoopla Good Co., Strong Track Record, Rated New Neutral at Citi: PT 245p (Close 245,3)
• Zoopla is “good company with strong track record”; initiated with neutral rating, PT 245p, Citi says in note.
• Citi says relative disconnect in ARPA and margins vs Rightmove provides opportunity
• Relative positioning already reflected in valuation
• Agents Mutual start should be seen not only from S/T financials perspective; should also examine what effect L/T fragmentation of usage may have on co.’s utility
• Valuation at 30.1x est. FY2015 P/E seems fair
Unilever Cut at Jefferies on Slow 2H Outlook, Margin Progression
• Unilever has re-rated, no longer a cheap stock, Jefferies says in note; downgrades stock on weak 2H outlook, possible CEO succession in next 2-3 yrs.
• Jefferies cuts to underperform vs hold; PT on Unilever NV EU26.60 vs EU29, PT on Unilever Plc 2,120p vs 2,760p
• Brokerage says “more cautious” on Unilever
• Says margin “the missing ingredient since 2009,” and with rev. under pressure, focus will be on slow margins progress, growth drag from Foods
• Says opportunity may have passed for transformational deal in HPC; co. may have been more radical in reshaping its portfolio incl. Spreads, Surface Care, Oral Care.
Cobham Resumed Neutral at Citi, PT Raised to 305p vs 290p (Close 286,9)
Johnston Press Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
Rightmove Cut to Sell vs Buy at Citi
Tesco Cut to Neutral at Macquarie; PT 270 to 220 (Close 194,5)
Tate & Lyle Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; Pt 825p to 690p (Close 610p)
• JPMorgan says supply-chain problems remain a risk, sucralose pricing continues to decline; SFI assets attractive though visibility too low to remain overweight, current valuation appropriate
Tate & Lyle Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
• UBS says market finally valuing corn-processing operation on similar multiple to close peer Ingredion, downside limited by quality of corn operation
Tate & Lyle Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 745p to 640 (Close 610)
Thrombogenics Cut to Underweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Eu11 to 7,3 (Close 7,95)
Polymetal Removed From UBS Least Preferred List
Fresnillo Added to UBS Most Preferred List -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc (SRPT) initiated with a Outperform at Credit Suisse
Rio Tinto plc (RIO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
WaferGen Bio-systems, Inc.( WGBS) initiated with a Buy at Brean Capital
Galmed Pharmaceuticals (GLMD) target raised to $24 at MLV & Co
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) added to US 1 List at BofA/Merrill
HomeAway, Inc (AWAY) initiated with a Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey
Hi-Crush Partners LP (HCLP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Wunderlich
Autoliv, Inc.( ALV) initiated with a Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Morgan Stanley (MS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan
SeaDrill Limited (SDRL) resumed with a Underperform at Wells Fargo -
Mõned tänased analüüsimajade kommentaarid Euroopas:
Ultra Electronics Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Spectris Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane
Rotork Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Exane
Enel Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen
Endesa Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu4,4 to 4,8 (Close 4,14)
PostNL Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
TDC Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
TeliaSonera Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Bank St Petersburg Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan
Energa Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT PLN23,4 (Close 23,7)
Nokian Tyres Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
Novatek Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $134 to 138 (Close 105,75)
Telecom Italia Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu 1,0 (Close 0,91)
AMEC Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Danone Cut to Underweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Eu 53 to 48 (Close 53,52)
• Danone 2H recovery “under pressure,” JPMorgan says in note; downgrades to underweight from neutral, reduces PT to EU48 from EU53.
• JPMorgan says downgrade due to possible U.S., Russia slowdown, questions over shr recovery in China, still-high milk prices prompt caution on pace of 2H recovery
• Says co. likely to “struggle” to meet its FY 2014 targets; cuts FY 2014, FY 2015 EPS ests by 5%
• New 2020 strategy suggests stronger focus on profitability, however top line decline, lack of visibility will hit stock performance in S/T
REC Silicon Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC
Meyer Burger Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC
Pkp Cargo Rated New Buy at SocGen; PT PLN97 (Close 79,8)
Dairy Crest Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT 440p to 410 (Close 380,5)
GEA Group Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays; PT Eu36 to 40 (Close 33,2)
Hargreaves Lansdown Cut to Sector Perform at RBC Capital; PT 1650p to 1075 (Close 964)
Hargreaves Lansdown Rated New Underperform at Sanford Bernstein; PT 745p (Close 964)
Solar Market Still Strong, Installations to Rise in 2H: HSBC
•HSBC says solar installations to accelerate in 2H led by China, Japan, U.S. and “slightly”
raises its demand estimates, according to note, upgrades Meyer Burger, downgrades REC Silicon.
• HSBC says 2H poly prices to remain broadly stable as supply under control, sees 2H installations up ~50% vs 1H
• Expects solar installations to reach 44 GW in 2014 vs 43.5GW previously, 51.5GW in 2015 vs 50.5GW previously
• Market environment in Europe challenging, U.K. “the only bright spot”
• Wacker Chemie kept at overweight, PT to EU110 vs EU105
• Sees clean Ebitda growth of 38% this year on stable pricing, cost improvements
• Cuts REC Silicon to neutral vs overweight, PT NOK3.25 vs NOK4.5
• Sees increasing vol. risks due to solar trade dispuute between China, U.S. (China largest end-market for REC)
• Says worried about high cost structures, significant cash burn rates at SMA Solar, Meyer Burger
• SMA Solar kept at underweight
• Meyer Burger raised to neutral vs underweight (PT CHF9.5 vs CHF10): upgraded after recent share price drop, notes concern on S/T liquidity eased after convertible bond placement
Infineon Estimates Cut at BofAML on Weaker Macro, Autos Data
• Infineon FY15 sales, segment result ests. cut by 1.4% and 7% respectively at BofAML due to weakening macro data and negative data points from auto manufacturers.
• BofAML: FY15 sales and EPS ests. are now 5%/10% below co. compiled consensus
• Intl. Rectifier deal looks expensive; assuming Infineon can lift IRF’s margins by ~7% the acquisition price still values co. at a near peak multiple
• Reiterates underperform rating -
BofAML. Mida tähendavad tähed ML?
-
Merrill Lynch
-
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Barrick Gold (ABX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC Securities
BHP Billiton (BHP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Comerica (CMA) upgraded to Buy at Wunderlich; tgt raised to $65
Schlumberger (SLB) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Iberia
KB Home (KBH) downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $17
Marsh McLennan (MMC) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; tgt lowered to $57 from $58
Yahoo! (YHOO) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts
Alcoa (AA) target raised to $20 at Stifel ahead of earnings on October 8; firm raises Q3 EPS above consensus
Audience (ADNC) target lowered to $8 at Chardan Capital Markets
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) target raised to $120 from $95 at Piper Jaffray; Overweight
Gilead Sciences (GILD) target raised to $120 at Needham -
Tänased reitingute muudatused
Telenet Raised to Strong Buy vs Outperform at Raymond James; PT Eu47 to 50 (Close 42,29)
Bwin.Party Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Altice Rated New Sell at Citi, PT Eu37 (Close 42,17)
Axfood Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; PT SEK350 to 400 (Close 345,7)
DNO Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; PT Nok22 to 28 (Close 19,56)
Balfour Beatty Upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank on Valuation; PT raised to 270p from 245p (Close 220,2)
• Deutsche Bank says share price correction overdone, stock an attractive valuation story, implied valuation of Construction business negative, seems too harsh
• Sees valuation support from disposal of Parsons Brinkerhoff, PPP-concessions asset portfolio, strong dividend yield
William Demant Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT Dkk440 to 470 (Close 450,0)
GN Store Nord Rated New Overweight at HSBC, PT Dk160 (Close 124,5)
Amplifon Rated New Overweight at HSBC, PT Eu5.7 (Close 4,39)
Vallourec Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu32 to 36 (Close 35,19)
• Sees support from FX (mainly euro/dollar) offsetting risk of further downside to 2014 Ebitda est. due to weakening iron ore prices, JPMorgan says in note today.
• Most negatives will materialize in 2H 2014 incl. Petrobras, Aramco destocking, impacting Brazil, Middle East and North Africa: JPMorgan
• May see M-T catalyst from rise in U.S. OCTG price, providing support in 1H 2015; pressure could hit mkt from 2H 2015 when new U.S. capacity comes onstream, adding margin pressure
• Trades at 6.5x EV/Ebitda on JPM’s 2015 Ebitda est.; keeps 2014/2015 Ebitda ests. unchanged
European Utilities Raised to Benchmark at Credit Suisse
UK Real Estate Cut to Underweight vs Benchmark: Credit Suisse
TDC Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Nomura; PT Dkk52 to 50 (Close 44,98)
Bankinter Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu 6,25 (Close 6,8)
Aixtron Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu11,5 to 14,4 (Close 11,23)
• While industry fundamentals have been improving for a while, we have had reservations about Aixtron's market position. The order of 50 next generation tools by large Chinese customer San'an changes that, and we believe marks a turning point for the stock.
• San'an had ordered 50 units of Aixtron's (as yet unannounced) next generation MOCVD tool. San'an has been one of two companies involved in extensive testing of the tool in recent months, so the order is based on empirical results.
Telefonica Deutschland Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Altarea Cogedim Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT eu149 to 158 (Close 127,55)
Klepierre Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu39 to 42 (Close 34,08)
Eurocommercial Properties Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu38 to 41 (Close 35,2)
British Land Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 740p to 780p (Close 691,5)
Kering Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT Eu156 to 180 (Close 158,1)
• We see Kering as a relative outperformer in a sector where we remain cautious. This is thanks to a combination of: (a) realistic growth expectations for Gucci and Puma, (b) above-average long-term potential for BV and SL, and (c) attractive CFROI® underpinned by a relatively better picture on off-B/S lease commitments vs. peers.
Great Portland Estates Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen
INTU Properties Cut to Sell vs Hold at SocGen
Gecina Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu 108 to 123 (Close 102,3)
Fonciere Lyonnaise Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu 40 to 43 (Close 38,2)
Icade Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 75 to 81 (Close Eu65,8)
Hennes & Mauritz Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT Sek357 to 315 (Close 300,5)
Seadrill Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Nok232 to 155 (Close 173,5)
Odfjell Drilling Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Nok30,6 to 23,0 (Close 27,5)
Philips Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu25 to 32,4
• Philips HealthTech to bring higher returns, less volatility with consumer part “exceptional,” healthcare side “reasonably good,” Morgan Stanley says in note.
• Says HealthTech’s implied value is too low; sees limited synergy between consumer, professional medical products
• Est. Consumer Lifestyle at middle of 2016 margin tärget range in 2015
• Expects volatility in Lighting results; volume, price pressures in Light Sources, Electronics segment to limit margin potential
Air France-KLM Cut to Underperform vs Hold at Jefferies; PT Eu 7,7 to 6,7 (Close 7,62)
• Unclear how AF-KLM can placate pilots; strike adds ambiguity to Perform 2020 strategic plan; ~10% share drop since Sept. 11 CMD “may not be enough”
• Expect profit target update with traffic on Oct. 8
• Strike is opportunity for EasyJet, no. 2 in French mkt, may give strong close to financial year; buying opportunity ahead of Oct. 3 trading update: Jefferies -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Altria (MO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Dominion (D) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus
NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Buy at Janney; tgt raised to $93
Northrop Grumman (NOC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $145 from $140
Textron (TXT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Philip Morris International (PM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Harley-Davidson (HOG) initiated with a Hold at Wunderlich; tgt $57
Micron (MU) target raised to $45 from $40 at Raymond James, Strong Buy; target raised to $60 from $50 at Needham, Buy; target raised to $43 from $41 at Piper Jaffray, Overweight
NIKE (NKE) target raised to $100 from $90 at Barclays; Overweight -
Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Tullow Oil Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
Morgan Advanced Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
Rotork Upgraded to Buy at BofAML, Sees Sector Leading Growth (Close 2762p)
• Rotork upgraded to buy from neutral at BofAML, says co. has one of most attractive business models in sector, balance sheet potential and relatively modest expectations for next year.
• BofAML says most of co.’s exposure in more stable mid and downstream markets, sees sector leading growth
• Says valuation multiples at relative lows vs sector
RTL Group Cut to Hold vs Add at Commerzbank; PT Eu93 to 75 (Close 69,5)
Adidas Cut to Hold vs Buy at Commerzbank; PT $68 to 63 (60,5)
Sistema Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $11 to 7 (Close 9,2)
• On our estimates, the market is currently pricing in loss of Bashkortostan assets but not liability for cUS$3.8bn in backdated dividends.
IGD Cut to Sell vs Buy at SocGen; PT Eu0,89 to 0,9 (Close 0,99)
Vallourec Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT Eu32 to 35 (Close 35,74)
Novatek Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT $120 (Close 106,6)
Modern Times Group Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Micro Focus Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
TNT Express Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Just Eat Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List, Stays Buy; PT 360p to 400 (Close 306,2)
Philips Raised to Buy vs Hold at ING; PT Eu25 to 29 (Close 25,18)
Vectura Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 171p (Close 130,25)
Bashneft Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays
Petrofac Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 1340p (Close 1010)
• Petrofac shares have been too heavily de-rated and at close to 1000p (a 4 year low) we feel they offer compelling value, with a robust balance of risk vs reward. The shares now trade on just 8.2x 2015E PE, a 20% discount to the broader European OFS sector and a 35% discount to their historic average. Then on a 2015E EV/EBITDA of 5.1x the shares are on a 15% sector-relative discount and a 30% discount to their historic average.
• Valuation is the main driver. But other factors are material – backlog and tendering outlook are strong, and Petrofac is more defensive than many E&C peers by having limited offshore exposure, a significant proportion of NOC clients, and an excellent record for winning and executing onshore lump sum projects. Recent director dealing is also supportive, and the CEO's 18% stake plus a solid balance sheet underpin sustained dividend payout.
Allianz Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT eu148 to 139 (Close 129,9)
• Post the surprise resignation of Bill Gross from PIMCO on Friday 26 September, we downgrade Allianz to Neutral. Whilst the immediate fall in the shares has already reflected an expectation of significant potential outflows, we expect uncertainty to linger until the market can get greater visibility on the ultimate loss of AUM and also any impact on costs within PIMCO as management seeks to compensate for the damage of the departure and founder. Whilst we expect earnings and cash to be reduced, we do not see it as sufficient to prevent a material increase in capital return to shareholders, albeit with some reduction in the ultimate level. -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Baidu.com (BIDU) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
Boston Properties (BXP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group
FedEx upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen
NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $100 from $80
Waste Mgmt (WM) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush
Yahoo! (YHOO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham; tgt $48
F5 Networks (FFIV) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird
Celgene (CELG) target raised to $115 at RBC Capital Mkts
Deere (DE) target lowered to $95 from $98 at Credit Suisse; maintain Outperform
EMC (EMC) target raised to $33 at Oppenheimer -
Tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
ARM Cut to Underperform vs Marketperform at Bernstein; PT 750p (Close 924,5)
Smiths Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan on Detection Self-Help; PT 1317p to 1430p (Close 1250)
• JPMorgan expects Detection performance to improve on back of cost-cutting measures, regulatory changes, new management; says FX rates less likely to be a drag on profitability in coming quarters.
• Says self-help driven improvements in Detection should be main driver of EPS growth in 2015
• Sees estimate downgrades for Smiths Group coming to an end
Shell Raised to Outperform vs Marketperform at Bernstein; Pt Eu28 to 33,5 (Close 30,2)
Leonteq Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse, PT Chf285 (Close 194,5)
• We believe that (1) potential turnover from white labelling (WL) partners could amount to CHF38.5bn by FY2018 (2013: CHF7.5bn). We assume Leonteq should be able to onboard around seven more WL partners, mostly in 2016-2018. (2) Only 50% of the growth potential is priced in, according to our sensitivity analysis. We think investors underestimate the mid-term growth prospects.
Asia Resource Minerals Cut to Underweight vs Neutral: JPMorgan; Pt 64p to 38p (Close 69,3)
Eurobank Rated New Sell at UBS, PT Eu0.31 (Close 0,31)
Piraeus Rated New Neutral at UBS, PT Eu1.45 (Close 1,27)
Alpha Bank Rated New Neutral at UBS, PT Eu0.68 (Close 0,6)
Anglo American, Ferrexpo Added to UBS Least Preferred List
PGS Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Ferrexpo Cut to Sell vs Neutral at UBS
Deutsche Wohnen Rated New Hold at SocGen, PT Eu19 (Close 16,9)
MTU Aero Engines Raised to Buy vs Hold at Berenberg; PT Eu71,8 to 74,8 (Close 65,3)
London Mining Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Nexans Raised to Neutral From Underperform at Credit Suisse
Orlen Rated New Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Pln 38,0 (Close 41,37)
Associated British Foods Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 3000p (Close 2563)
• Primark has been key to AB Foods share price but less so earnings; now with struggles in sugar
• Primark accounts for >60% of profit, Credit Suisse says in note.
• Sees significant EPS growth (+15%) in 2015/16 as Primark openings accelerate with U.S. entry, recovery in Ingredients, Sugar profits to “improve smartly”
• Tough to find better structural growth story than Primark; ests. sales outside U.K./Ireland GBP1.6b by end Sept. 2014
• Following Inditex/H&M growth trajectory suggests intl. sales to double in 3 years, by 2024 may top GBP10b; says U.S. delivery is key
• Rollout shouldn’t dilute margins; says Northern Continental Europe already seeing double digit margins: Credit Suisse -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Alcoa (AA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Computer Sciences (CSC) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James
Lockheed Martin (LMT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
NiSource (NI) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $50 from $41
Raytheon (RTN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
Ford Motor (F) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig Hallum; tgt $17
Kellogg (K) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
Apple (AAPL) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $110
AutoZone (AZO) initiated with a Mkt Perform at William Blair
CDW (CDW) initiated with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts
Facebook (FB) target raised to $95 from $90 at Evercore; maintain Overweight
Ford Motor (F) target lowered to $16 at RBC Capital Mkts -
Tänase reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Alrosa Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Rub50,1 to 52,0 (Close 35,51)
Crest Nicholson Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT 367p (Close 325,0)
Sonova Cut to Underperform vs Buy at BofAML
GN Store Nord Raised to Buy at BofAML
Zoopla Property Rated New Neutral at Exane, PT 240p (Close 236,6)
Coloplast Raised to Buy From Hold at Nordea; PT Dkk565 (Close 494,0)
Eutelsat Reinstated Neutral at BofAML, PT Eu30 (Close 25,57)
SES Reinstated Buy at BofAML, PT Eu35 (Close 27,38)
Aker Solutions Rated New Sell at UBS, PT Nk60 (Close 64,0)
Sodexo Added to UBS Least Preferred List
Edenred Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Edenred Added to UBS Most Preferred List
Facc AG Rated New Buy at UBS, PT Eu9.5 (Close 8,04)
Royal Mail Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Zoopla Rated New Neutral at Goldman, PT 242p (Close 236,6)
Galp Energia Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse
Aker Solutions Rated New Buy at Goldman, PT Nok77.5 (Close 64,0)
SSP Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan, PT 300p (Close 259,7)
MTU Aero Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu69,0 (Close 67,6)
Balfour Beatty Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 220p to 200p (Close 188,6)
• JPMorgan says in note not more positive on Balfour Beatty, still sees material earnings risk short-term, no visibility on management, future strategy, dividends or buyback guarantee.
• Cuts EPS ests. 46% for 2014, 19% for 2015, still sees some risk to new ests.
• Says long-term valuation supportive though not an upside driver, cuts PT to 200p from 220p
BMW Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu86 to 95 (Close 86,1)
• BMW is the highest quality play in EU Autos, and defensive appeal in an uncertain industry backdrop now makes it our only OW. Despite consistent EPS momentum the stock has de-rated on China fears, which looks overdone: even if 50% of import profit is lost, we think BMW can sustain 8% Auto margins
Daily Mail Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Morgan Stanley
DSV Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays; PT Dkk160 to 182 (Close 166,6)
Kuehne & Nagel Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays; PT Sfr105 to 137 (Close 120,6)
Panalpina Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays; PT Sfr95 to 154 (Close 120,1)
Unibail-Rodamco Raised to Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu210,0 to 240,0 (Close 203,7
Remain Positive on S. Europe Utilities, Enel Top Pick: Barclays
• Sector no longer extremely cheap on multiples although remain positive on deep value, self-help stories, Barclays says in note on S. European utilities.
• Barclays: Enel (overweight) remains top pick on potential to create value from operational changes, holding co. restructuring
• Says Enel trades at ~20% discount to broader utilities sector on Barclays ests. for 2015/2016; shrs reflect transition risks (which should be completed within 6 months), but not expected “solid turnaround” in erns
• Discount set to disappear as soon as restructuring is completed
• Preferred picks among regulated firms are Snam, Enagas, REN (all overweight); should be supported in 2015 by upside potential on divs., extra premiums in yields vs bond mkt -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Exelon (EXC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at ISI Group; tgt raised to $39 from $33
Fluor (FLR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson; tgt $85
Masco (MAS) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $28.50 from $21
Tyson Foods (TSN) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $42 from $38
Dean Foods (DF) downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T Capital Mkts
eBay (EBAY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, tgt raised to $61 from $56; downgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein
Amgen (AMGN) reinstated with a Neutral at BofA/Merrill; tgt $152
C.H. Robinson (CHRW) resumed with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Cisco Systems (CSCO) initiated with a Overweight at Atlantic Equities; tgt $31
Ford Motor (F) removed from US 1 list at BofA/Merrill
Moody's (MCO) target raised to $107 from $93 at Piper Jaffray; Overweight
Tyco (TYC) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $47 -
Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Eurocommercial Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu36 to 39 (Close 33,96)
Aberdeen Asset Raised to Hold at Jefferies as Flows Improve; PT 350p to 400 (Close 391)
• Aberdeen Asset Management raised from underperform on fast improvement in outflow momentum, Jefferies says in note today.
• No shift yet to net inflows
• Net flows likely to be offset by further “attrition” in SWIP life funds
• Equity markets remain big downside risk, market risk trumps all other risks
Fraport Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List, Stays Buy
Swiss Life Raised to Equalweight on Capital, Strategy, MS Says
•Swiss Life upgraded from underweight as capital position seems “robust” and tighter credit spreads, organic capital growth cost cuts put co. in comfortable position re Swiss Solvency Test, Morgan Stanley says in note today.
• Says progress toward 2015 targets ahead of schedule
• Sees Swiss Life’s SST ratio at 142%, rising to 148% by 2015
• Notes Swiss Life doesn’t disclose that ratio, says only that it’s above 100%
• Cuts 2014-2018 earnings ests on margin pressure in Swiss business, PT raised 28% to CHF244
• Cuts COE est. to 11% from 13% on capital confidence
LVMH Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Eu145 to 155 (Close 127,4)
Richemont Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Sfr94 to 95 (Close 77,65)
•LVMH, Richemont have attractive valuations, earnings may start to improve in 2H, JPMorgan says in a note
•European luxury cos. under JPM coverage down avg. 14% in past year, have lagged MSCI Europe by 22%; earnings have been hurt by negative FX, sales slowdown in mainland China, investments
• LVMH, Richemont are below historical levels on P/E basis;
• Organic sales growth may be tough into 2H with Japan improvement countered by weak Asia Pacific
•Luxury earnings should start to get boost from FX starting in 2H; 1H14 may be low point, start to improve in 2H and more significantly in 2015
• LVMH, Richemont may be first to win back investor interest in tough sector backdrop
SGS Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse
Direct Line Cut to Equalweight After Outperformance, MS Says
• Direct Line’s trading will be closer to peers from now on and recent announcement on disposal of international operations means now is best time to realize gains, Morgan Stanley says in note.
• Sees headwinds in near term that may cancel out positive catalysts, notes tough trading conditions
• Says more likely some positive catalysts will develop in 12-18 months
• Competition in U.K. motor and home insurance markets is higher than expected, will damp S/T growth outlook
• Raises 2014, 2015 EPS ests 25% and 48% to reflect disposal of International, 2016 EPS est. cut 6% on loss of International earnings
Dechra Pharma Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT 871p (Close 753)
ADP Removed From Goldman Conviction Sell List, Stays Sell
Hugo Boss Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT Eu115 (Close 95,84)
Sainsbury Cut to Underperform at Macquarie; PT 320p to 200p (Close 234p)
RTL Group Rated New Buy at UBS, PT Eu84.70 (Close 67,2)
• RTL intiated after UBS survey shows “more positive than expected” trends in Germany, France, Spain, UBS says in note.
• UBS says RTL shrs at 52-wk lows, after negative profit revisions from French ads, Freemantle, Hungarian tax legislation
• Says however profit momentum and shares are reaching their lowest point, now time to buy
Vozrozhdenie Bank Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche; PT RUB 420 (Close 458)
Tcs Group Holding Cut to Sell vs Hold at Deutsche; PT $4 (Close 4,6)
Swiss Life Raised to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Novo Nordisk Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley, PT Dk301 (Close 283,8)
Ipsen Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu46 (Close 39,24)
• We believe investors are overlooking IPN's progress in restructuring its base business over the past 2 years (streamlining French primary care, sale of haemophilia partner, US reorganisation). We see a compelling risk-reward underpinned by pipeline catalysts in the next 6 months and self-help opportunities (efficiencies, business development). We think the shares are missing this, on a 2015e P/E of 17x, in line with the sector but c20% below specialty peers despite higher EPS growth (13% 2015-18e vs sector on 8%)Orange Polska Cut to Hold vs Buy at ING; PT Pln10,7 to 10,8 (Close 11,5).
Uralkali Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays; PT Usd20 (Close 17,77)
Dechra Pharma Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 871p (Close 753)
TF1 Upgraded to Buy at UBS on Improving French Ad Trends
• TF1 ad trends “less bad,” with recent UBS survey showing French TV ads stronger than anticipated at -2% in 3Q, UBS says in note; raises to buy from neutral, lifts PT to EU13.30 from EU12.30.
• UBS says survey results suggest S/T positivity; decline is less than before, will lead to positive investor sentiment
• Shares have underperformed mkt by 28% YTD; upgrades to buy on this weakness -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Autodesk (ADSK) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup; upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Cowen, tgt $65
Bank of America (BAC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $20 from $16
Fossil (FOSL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group
IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
PulteGroup (PHM) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman; removed from America's Sell list
Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $64 from $54
Eaton (ETN) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
PNC (PNC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $94 from $95
U.S. Steel (X) downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc Capital Mkts
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) initiated with a Top Pick at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $115
Valero Energy (VLO) initiated with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $66 -
Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Spirit Pub Rated New Buy at Canaccord, PT 110p (Close 97,0)
Greene King Rated New Hold at Canaccord, PT 800p (Close 767)
Statoil Assumed Neutral at Credit Suisse, PT Nk185 (Close 169,0)
Elior Rated New Neutral at Exane, PT Eu14.6 (Close 12,7)
Endesa Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
Fresnillo Raised to Outperform at RBC Capital; PT 1000p to 950p (Close 749,5)
JD Wetherspoon Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 730p to 850p (Close 780)
Bogdanka Rated New Buy at SocGen; Pln139 (Close 112,75)
Swiss Life Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Nomura; PT Sfr240 (Close 225,1)
Topdanmark Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse
Gjensidige Forsikring Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse
Sampo Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse
Euronext Rated New Buy at SocGen, PT Eu24.5 (Close 19,22)
Storebrand Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Debenhams Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT 60p (Close 60,0)
Colruyt Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; Pt Eu37,2 to 35,5 (Close 34,2)
Ion Beam Applications Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT Eu16 (Close 14,2)
Elekta Rated New Hold at Jefferies, PT Sek68 (Close 71,25)
Carrefour Raised to Market Perform at Sanford Bernstein; PT Eu24,5 to 25,0 (Close 23,2) -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays
Halliburton (HAL) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) downgraded to Reduce from Buy at Nomura
FireEye (FEYE) downgraded to Under Perform at Northland Capital; tgt lowered to $25 from $34
Costco (COST) target raised to $120 at Oppenheimer
F5 Networks (FFIV) target raised to $140 from $130 at Piper Jaffray; Overweight
Jetblue Airways (JBLU) added to Short-Term Buy list at Deutsche Bank
Salesforce.com (CRM) initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee; tgt $70
Thermo Fisher (TMO) initiated with a Neutral at BTIG Research -
Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Moncler Raised to Buy at BofAML
Norma Raised to Buy at BofAML
Belgacom Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu26 to 29 (Close 28,03)
Telenet Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu48 to 54 (Close 45,7)
Outokumpu Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; Pt eu7,56 to 7,09)
• Major restructuring and plant reconfiguration should substantially improve productivity (and hence earnings) and the Calvert ramp up could add cE200m to EBITDA also. We think the Indonesian ore ban should still benefit EU stainless players (but in 2015 at the earliest). While macro risks suggest next year could still disappoint, the focus on FCF through restructuring and capex cuts suggests potential for a 17% FCF yield 2 years forward with no cycle improvement (and no benefit from the Indonesian ban).
Just Retirement Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT180p (CLose 120,3)
Henderson Group Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity; PT 240p (Close 199,6)
Subsea 7 Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane
Dunelm Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
Air France Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi; PT Eu9,9 to 7,7
•Air France-KLM total operating losses from pilot strike may be EU225m, with added rev. loss from forward bookings of EU100m-EU150m, says Citi in note.
• 2014E est. Ebitda cut by ~EU350m to EU1.82b: Citi
Delhaize Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu59 (Close 53,9)
BAE Systems Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT 485p (Close 460,2p)
Pharma Sector Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
Energy Sector Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan
Novo Nordisk Cut to Hold vs Buy at DNB; PT Dkk300 (Close 291,0)
• Novo shrs have outstripped fundamentals as outlook for newsflow declines, DNB Markets says in note.
• DNB remains positive on co.’s long-term outlook, market position and pipeline; PT maintained at DKK300
• Sees Tresiba U.S. launch by early 2016
Bank of Ireland Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan, PT Eu0.30 (Close 0,31)
Mbank Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT Pln475 to 515 (Close 481)
Erste Bank Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman, Top Pick in E. Europe; PT Eu24 to 23 (Close 17,99)
• Erste Bank exposure to Russia, Ukraine “negligible” even as lender is positioned to benefit from a recovery in Central and Eastern Europe, Goldman Sachs says in note today.
• Outlook for “subdued” S/T performance priced in after several profit warnings
• Current price offers “attractive entry point”
• Other Top Picks among Greek, CEE banks include: National Bank of Greece which should do well in recovery of economy, improving oper trends and continued revamp; book value to rise faster than rivals’
• Alpha Bank may also do well as economy recovers and given reshaped playing field; underlying ROTE seen at 15% by 2017/2018
• OTP is “one of least appreciated” CEE banks, Goldman says, should benefit from improving Hungary sentiment, easing market view on risks of Russia/Ukraine crisis
• Komercni has ample liquidity, stable environment, good capitalization, is exposed to attractive Czech banking market
Europe Metals & Mining Sector Cut to Neutral at UBS
Europe Healthcare Equipment Sector Raised to Overweight at UBS -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Coca-Cola Ent (CCE) upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at Nomura; tgt raised to $43 from $39
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $65 from $69
Harley-Davidson (HOG) upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $70
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $584 from $466
L Brands (LB) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at BMO Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $80 from $58
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray; tgt lowered to $35 from $45
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
McDonald's (MCD) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
PetSmart (PETM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $70 from $75
HCP (HCP) initiated with a Neutral at ISI Group; tgt $42
Health Care REIT (HCN) initiated with a Buy at ISI Group; tgt $70
Ventas (VTR) initiated with a Buy at ISI Group;tgt $70 -
Mõned tänased analüüsimajade kommentaarid:
Kappahl Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; Pt Sek42 (Close 38,1)
Fagerhult Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Swedbank; PT Sek170 to 160 (Close 146)
Pernod-Ricard Cut to Sell vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu80 (Close 87,49)
Enel Green Power Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu2,12 to 2,11 (Close 1,95)
Endesa Raised to Overweight vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu19,5 to 33,0 (Close 30,99)
Schroders Cut to Underperform vs Buy at BofAML
Santander Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Eu5,8 to 5,9 (Close 7,45)
Antofagasta Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Nomura
Antofagasta Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen PT 715p to 755 (Close 706,5)
Smith & Nephew Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT 700p to 1100 (Close 1032)
Rosneft Added to UBS Least Preferred List
Lukoil Added to UBS Most Preferred List
European Industrials Raised, Health Care Cut at Morgan Stanley
• European industrial stocks raised to overweight and health-care stocks lowered to underweight in Morgan Stanley equity strategy note.
• Growth outlook not as bad as feared for cyclicals; weaker euro has led to significant earnings revisions
• On 12-mo. forward PEs, cyclicals trading at lowest relative valuations since Nov. 2008
• Many industrials look oversold
• If ECB policy gains tractions, cyclicals should outperform
• Buying Babcock, Philips, BMW, selling Reed, GN Store Nord
• Morgan Stanley now underweight in main defensive sectors, notes that health-care outperformance has been extreme
Ryanair Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu8,15 to 8,5 (Close 7,53)
Air France Raised to Overweight vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu7,0 to 8,5 (Close 7,0)
• Near-term risk/reward favors Air France over Ryanair after recent moves, says JPMorgan in note
• Sees 24% upside for EasyJet (reiterated overweight, focus list), +18% for IAG (reiterated overweight), +1% for LHA (reiterated neutral)
•Continues to prefer low-cost carriers longer term
•Ebola not material risk unless it becomes airborne disease
Ferrovial Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT eu18,7 (Close 15,4)
• The Americas' toll road assets remain undervalued, in our view, and traffic improvement and a low rates environment are key drivers to unlock this value in the coming months. In the meantime, earnings risks from the rest of the operations remain limited as services should continue to improve profitability thanks to the restructuring of the UK assets post the Enterprise acquisition a year ago, while construction backlogs are starting to re-accelerate. HAH's reduced stake and the new regulatory period, which has just started, should turn airports neutral for sentiment in the near term.
Vinci Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu51,1 (Close 45,3)
• Vinci, despite its large revenue exposure to contracting activities, is also dominated at the EBITDA level by the earnings contribution from its toll roads division – ASF and Cofiroute motorways – given its high profitability. Of the 3, it is also the most domestic company, ~82% of its EBITDA exposure comes from France versus ACS with only ~26% and Ferrovial with only ~24% (attributable) exposure in Spain.
• The stock has recently sold off sharply due to its significant exposure to France (macro data increasingly negative), as well as the downgrade to construction revenues and earnings at the 1H14 results. Both of these risks are more than priced in now, in our view. On France, perhaps counter-intuitively, motorway traffic is doing well, helped probably by the decline in GDP per capita, which implies fewer people are holidaying abroad, opting for staycations instead and driving on Vinci's motorways. Here, ASF benefits more, given its larger tourist component as well as lowering fuel prices.
ACS Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu31,6 (Close 30,59)
• The balance sheet restructuring appeals, as does the potential value generation if the assets held for sale (€1.5mn of net value) are disposed of successfully, and the restructuring of Leighton continues. However, we are cautious on Leighton's earnings and cash flow outlook for the coming years. With 17% implied downside to Leighton's fair value and with EPS c.10% below consensus for 2015e and 2016e on the back of our gap in Leighton, downside risk balances out the positive prospects we see elsewhere for the group.
SMA Solar Technology Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
HeidelbergCement Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT Eu65 (Close 53,11)
Delta Lloyd Rated New Outperform at Exane, PT Eu23 (Close 18,86)
Experian Reinitiated Neutral at Exane, PT 1,050p (Close 973,5)
Aggreko Rated New Underperform at Exane, PT 1,500p (Close 1548) -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Ingersoll-Rand (IR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $68 from $67
Intl Paper (IP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; tgt raised to $55 from $33
MGM Resorts (MGM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt to $30 from $29
Cummins (CMI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Deere (DE) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Dunkin Brands (DNKN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $47
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $65 from $74
PG&E (PCG) downgraded to Fair Value from Buy at CRT Capital
U.S. Bancorp (USB) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
Apple (AAPL) target raised to $120 from $115 at Susquehanna; maintain Positive
CBOE Holdings (CBOE) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $55
CBS (CBS) target lowered to $71 at FBR Capital; maintain Outperform
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) target raised to $45 at Brean Capital
SunTrust Banks (STI) initiated with a Mkt Perform at Bernstein; tgt $42
UnitedHealth (UNH) initiated with a Overweight at Piper Jaffray, tgt $121; reinstated with a Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill, tgt raised to $120 from $98 -
Täna Euroopas:
Spirent Cut to Neutral at BofAML
ITV Added to Credit Suisse Focus List on ‘Rare’ Content Assets (Close 204,4p)
• ITV is “rare” content asset, recent pullback on global growth worries, offers attractive entry point, Credit Suisse says in note.
• Credit Suisse adds to Europe Focus List; reiterates outperform, PT 207p
• Cites ITV Studios’s strategic value, profit momentum, possible capital returns, upside if retransmission fees introduced
• Sees co. generating >GBP400m in FCF in 2014, >GBP600m in 2015, making possible “significant” capital return in 2015
• Says would be “logical” to expect GBP280m-GBP360m
• Shrs at “undemanding” multiples, 9.8x 2015 est. EV/Ebitda
Gas Natural Cut To Underweight, Better Value Elsewhere, MS Says
• At current levels valuation is stretched, while capital redeployment visibility is limited and LNG margins have peaked, Morgan Stanley says in note dated Oct. 7; cuts to underweight vs equalweight.
• MS: appears expensive on P/E, EV/Ebitda vs peers and FCF yield at ~10% below sector avg. 11%; div. yield only 190bps above sovereign vs EDP at 250bps, GDF Suez 390bps
• Co. has EU7b capital to redeploy 2015-2017, ~30% of mkt cap; sees reinvestment risk with low yield environment, increase in competition in good mkts
• Shrs have performed strongly past 2 yrs on divestment plan, capex slowdown, strong FCF, mkt conditions improvement
•SSE, GDF Suez better buy opportunities on superior div. yield, better investment plans; in S. Europe Enel, EDP Renovaveis have more compelling risk/reward
Melker Schorling Raised to Hold From Sell at Nordea; PT Sek335 (Close 310,5)
SKF Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT Sek195 to 175 (Close 144,2)
Aker Solutions Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT Nok82 to 57 (Close 59,8)
Fresenius SE Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank, PT Eu47 (Close 37,5)
Clariant Rating Cut at Goldman Sachs After Outperformance
•Clariant downgraded to neutral vs buy at Goldman Sachs, PT cut to CHF19.5 vs CHF20, according to note.
• Cuts 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS ests. by 1%, 2%, 1% respectively
• Cites 3Q industrial trends, FX, “more muted” growth in Plastics & Coatings (exposure to European industrial end mkts) and in Natural Resources (lower commodity prices) in coming yrs
• Says shrs +9.7% vs European chemicals sector -0.1% since co. added to buy list on Aug. 30, 2013
• Says Clariant’s improved portfolio attractive to potential buyer, already reflected in shr price
• NOTE: Clariant due to report 3Q on Oct. 30
Tesco Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 175p to 195p (Close 182,6)
•Tesco’s board has gotten stronger, lower stock price shows many risks priced in, HSBC says in note; raises to neutral vs underweight.
• Sees lower risk profile from recent board additions, “decisive” action by CEO, cultural changes occurring
• Sees more positive news in future, such as addressing balance sheet with rights issue and/or asset sales, more senior executive and non-executive hires, possible new chairman
• May be more bad news in accounting, pensions, profit rebasing; still has to address problems (pension deficit >10% of EV), may do a rights issue
Kloeckner Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu12,5 to 11,0 (Close 9,69)
GKN Cut to Underperform vs Buy at BofAML
Actelion Removed From UBS Most Preferred List
Hikma Added to UBS Most Preferred List
London Mining Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies
African Minerals Cut to Hold vs Buy at Jefferies
Flughafen Zurich Cut to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Aeroports de Paris Raised to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Dixy Group Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT Rub425 to 618 (Close 418,6)
Cairn Energy Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT 155p to 200 (Close 183,5)
Kaufman & Broad Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen; PT eu27 (Close 25,2)
Lenta Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT USD15,2 (Close 10,9)
Severstal Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Paypoint Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Dassault Systemes Raised to Equalweight at Barclays; PT Eu 45 to 48 (Close 50,1)
•3Q benefits from a low comparison, which may support management’s claim it can grow license double-digit, Barclays says in note.
• Stock raised to equalweight from underweight
• Stock is up 11.1% YTD vs a -1.6% fall in the SX8P index
• Next catalyst: 3Q earnings on Oct. 23, according to Bloomberg’s event calendar
European Chemicals Earnings Estimates Cut at Credit Suisse
• Credit Suisse reduces earnings estimates for European chemicals sector through 2016 by avg of ~2% into 3Q results, according to note.
• Sees limited European recovery after summer slowdown as construction, automotive remain challenging; weak LatAm, Asia demand; limited pricing power
• Key stocks with downside earnings risk include BASF, Novozymes
• Repeats stock preferences:
• Outperform: DSM, Croda, Syngenta
• Underperform: BASF, Umicore, K+S -
Tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas:
Ericsson Reinstated Underperform at BofAML
Nokia Reinstated Buy at BofAML
Outotec Raised to Hold From Sell at Nordea; PT Eu5.50 (Close 5,34)
Allianz Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane
Haldex Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; Pt Sek95 (Close 79,0)
Man SE Cut to Underperform at BofAML
Vodafone Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT 190p to 180 (Close 204,3)
• Vodafone likely to face competition from new entrants in U.K., Netherlands and India, Nomura says in note.
• Nomura: Drillisch’s new 4G offers may accelerate price cuts in German mkt.
• Recent surveys in U.K./Germany reflect poorly on VOD’s network quality; little evidence that higher spending will significantly improve customer experience
• This raises doubts over whether VOD’s medium-term dividend is sustainable
Edenred Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu21,0 to 22,5 (Close 20,27)
Schneider Electric Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List; PT Eu97 to 75 (Close 57,11)
Geberit Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy; PT Sfr380 to 385 (Close 292,8)
Siemens Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy; PT Eu118 to 120 (Close 88,18)
Wärtsilä Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT eu37 (Close 33,97)
Renault Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu74 to 65 (Close 54,64)
Gerresheimer Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu59 to 49 (Close 49,0 (Close 49,0)
CEZ Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Czk640 to 600 (Close 622,2)
Dunelm Group Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1000p (Close 816,0)
BMW Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT Eu90 to 105 (Close 81,24)
K+S Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Citi
Sika Added to UBS Most Preferred List
EMS-Chemie, Wacker Chemie Removed From UBS Most Preferred List
Eurobank Rated New Neutral at Citi
Green Dragon Gas Rated New Buy at Cantor, PT 952p (Close 439,88)
Alpha Bank Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Bavarian Nordic Rated New Buy at Citi
Innate Pharma Rated New Buy at Citi
Boohoo Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 65p (Close 46,5)
Investec Ltd Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 625p (Close 518,5)
Red Electrica Raised to Neutral at HSBC
Victrex Volumes Strong, 2015 May Be Year of Transition: JPMorgan (Close 1589p)
•Victrex’s volumes strong, beating consensus ests. by 7% with strong momentum especially in Consumer Electronics, JPMorgan says in note.
• JPMorgan reiterates neutral, raises PT to 1,720p vs 1,700p
• Notes overhead inflation, weaker mix weighing on 2014 profit growth as co. kept profit expectations unchanged
• Says 2015 faces “negative pressures,” to be transition yr; cites commissioning costs for new plant, investments in new marketing initiatives, negative FX pressures
• Invibio rev. +5%, “back on track”
• Earlier: Victrex says profit expectations “largely unchanged” despite particularly strong sales volumes; growth momentum remains positive into new FY
• NOTE: due to report FY results on Dec. 10 -
JPMorgani tänase autotootjate calli tausta veidi. BMWd soosib mudelitsükli tõttu, Renault pole aga arenevate turgude exposure'i tõttu enam atraktiivne
• Next two qtrs “excellent entry points” for BMW ahead of upside from new model introductions including 7 Series in 2015, says JPMorgan in note.
•Renault cut to neutral from overweight on Brazil, Russia challenges
• JPM says adjusting ests. across sector to reflect “mild” 2015 vehicle demand growth in Europe and N. America, drop in Brazil and high-single-digit growth in China
• Continue to favor suppliers vs automakers, favors “pure” suppliers Valeo, Faurecia vs tiremakers -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Apple (AAPL) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer
Vulcan Materials (VMC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow; tgt $70
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $70 from $75
Denbury Resources (DNR) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird
Gap (GPS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney, tgt lowered to $41 from $50; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee, tgt lowered to $40 from $52
J. C. Penney (JCP) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Craig Hallum
Allergan (AGN) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $215
DuPont (DD) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $71
LyondellBasell (LYB) initiated with a Top Pick at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $141
United Continental (UAL) added to Global Focus list and US Focus list at Credit Suisse; maintain Outperform and $68 tgt -
Euroopa reitingute muutused
Iliad Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Exane
Hochschild Mining Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT 170p (Close 119,0)
Carrefour Raised to Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu28 (Close 22,88)
Hiscox Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at HSBC; PT 630p to 690p (Close 646,5)
M6 Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu16 to 15 (Close 12,3)
Man Group Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT 135p to 132p (Close 119,4)
Gerresheimer Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu60 to 49 (Close 43,64)
Centrica Cut to Underweight vs Overweight at HSBC; PT 365p to 290p (Close 302,4)
ENI Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity; PT Eu17,7 to 22,0 (Close 17,0)
Hunting Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity; PT 950p (Close 803,5)
Natixis New Overweight on Possible M&A Upside: Morgan Stanley; PT eu6,5 (Close 5,35)
• Natixis could be among European bank stocks with highest yields given upside from asset managment growth that may be boosted by M&A, Morgan Stanley says in note today.
Morgan Stanley: Market is mispricing dividend payout ratio; high return, high cash flow to drive ~100% payout in 2014
• Sees 2015-2017 payout at ~90%, would still leave end-2017 CET1 ratio at 11.5%
• Sees potential for EU1.5b asset management M&A; replicating U.S. multi-boutique success though acquisitions could add 5%-10% via accretion
• Alternatively there could be ~10% capital return potential in a year’s time
• Says Natixis CIB has outperformed peers with ~3% growth in 1H vs sector decline of ~5%
SEB Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
Fresenius Medical Care Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
Telekom Austria Cut to Sell vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu7,15 to 6,2 (Close 7,13)
Palfinger Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS; PT Eu32 to 20 (Close 19,2)
Cargotec Cut to Sell vs Neutral at UBS; PT eu27 to 17,5 (Close 21,9)
Bashneft Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Dixons Carphone Reinitiated Buy at UBS, PT 425p (Close 367p)
C&C Group Raised to Equalweight at Barclays; PT Eu4,15 to 4,4 (Close 4,02)
AB InBev Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Was Buy; PT Eu93 to 110 (Close 83,57)
BAT Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT 3530p to 3250p (Close 3480,5)
Carrefour Raised to Neutral vs Conviction Sell at Goldman; PT Eu22,4 to 23,0 (Close 22,89)
Sandvik Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays; PT Sek89 to 80 (Close 76,65)
TSB Banking Rated New Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Spirent Communications Raised to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Aon (AON) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital Mkts
Avon Products (AVP) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS; tgt lowered to $11 from $12.50
DuPont (DD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $84 from $72
Halliburton (HAL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale; tgt lowered to $75 from $80
Groupon (GRPN) downgraded to Sell from Equal Weight at Evercore; tgt maintained at $5.50
J. C. Penney (JCP) downgraded to Sell at Maxim Group; tgt $4
Microchip (MCHP) downgraded to Hold at Needham; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Drexel Hamilton
EMC (EMC) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $37
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $38
L Brands (LB) target raised to $70 at RBC Capital Mkts
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) assumed with a Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $110
Juniper Networks (JNPR) tgt lowered to $25 from $29.50 at Cantor Fitzgerald; maintain Buy -
Tänased analüüsimade kommentaarid Euroopas:
Associated British Foods Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT 2950p (Close 2488)
WH Smith Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT 1225p (Close 1029)
Saipem Cut to Sell vs Neutral at UBS
Subsea 7 Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Renewed focus on capital discipline within oil industry, unit cost reduction may lead to prolonged slowdown in project sanctioning, UBS says in note.
•UBS: In previous cycles engineering activity has usually seen rebound in 12-18 months, current down cycle may be longer
• Order intake est. for E&C contractors in 2015/16 cut ~33% to 2008/09 levels; knock-on effect to 2016-18 rev.
• Saipem cut to sell vs neutral, PT down 36% to EU13.5
• With Eni viewing co. as non-core, may need balance sheet strengthening as standalone entity
• Lowers 2015/16 offshore order intake to EU4b vs EU6b, onshore to EU2.4b vs EU3.5b
• Lowers 2015/16 offshore order intake to EU4b vs EU6b, onshore to EU2.4b vs EU3.5b
• Subsea 7 cut to neutral vs buy, PT down 32% to NOK85
• Stock remains cheap, recent Guara-Lulu progress positive but don’t offset risk to consensus erns.
• 2015/16 order intake seen at $4b/yr vs $6b; 2014-17 ests cut 3.8%/12%/21.6%/33.5%
• 2015/16 order intake seen at $4b/yr vs $6b; 2014-17 ests cut 3.8%/12%/21.6%/33.5%
• Amec only buy in sector, Aker Solutions remains sell; EPS ests. cut for Technip, Petrofac, Aker Solutions, Wood Group
Randgold Resources Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Husqvarna Raised to Buy at DNB; PT Sek55 (Close 46,48)
• Robotic lawnmowers set to fuel strong earnings growth in years ahead, which isn’t priced in, DNB says.
• Sector yet to take off in Europe, gross margins should be very high
• Robotic lawnmowers priced 2-3x higher than normal walk-behind movers but with similar production costs
• Market quadrupled 2010-13 in Sweden; European penetration currently ~4%
Alfa Laval Raised to Hold at DNB; PT Sek 145 (Close 144,2)
•Alfa Laval set to announce cost-savings program with 3Q results that could support earnings over next 2 yrs, DNB says in note.
• DNB raises to hold from sell on less downside risk
• Shipping market still showing significant weakness
Luxottica Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi, PT Eu38.50 vs Eu47 (Close 41,08)
• Luxottica CEO Enrico Cavatorta’s departure raises governance fears, shrs may drop today in high-single-digits, Citi says in note, cuts to neutral.
• Citi also says co. has “unattractive” record of 2 respected executives leaving in 40 days
• Co. may have trouble finding strong candidates for unfilled co-CEO position
Anglo American Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 1800p (Close 1325p)
• We return Anglo to an Outperform rating following our downgrade in May. The shares are down over 20% from the YTD peak and we believe the risk/ reward is attractive once again. Commodity prices have clearly weakened; however, our confidence in management delivering on targeted cost savings, capex reductions, and divestments has not. By 2016/17 Anglo should be lower down the cost curve (asset sales, operational improvements), geared to later cycle commodities and, from a standing start, offers the best two- to three-year growth and cash flow trajectory from the large-cap miners.
BMW price tärget cut from Eu85 to 70, Underperform rating reiterated at Credit Suisse
• BMW surprised the market with bullish guidance back in March. Now the H2 sales environment and pricing is weaker than expected in key China and European mkts. This was highlighted with BMW Sept global sales showing China growth of only +4% with high margin imports -30%. Local China mix is weakening, while dealers complain of high discounting and exaggerated BMW sales. Our original investment bear case remains intact as key 3-,5-,6- and 7-series models age and sales of these models collapsed by 10% in Q3. The perception of BMW as a relative safe haven is likely to change as sentiment turns on China and slower volume growth, higher incentives, falling Auto EBIT margins, and we forecast little or no Q3 FCF. With a rising CO2 cost burden for all OEMs, we are unlikely to see future costs falling away in 2016.
STMicroelectronics Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT eu8,8 to 5,0 (Close 5,58)
Infineon Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu10 to 6,0 (Close 7,17)
•Weakness in German industrial production in August and Microchip’s comments on Chinese demand have significantly increased risks for Infineon and STMicro, JPMorgan says.
• JPM: unless there’s a global recession, growth in auto semis should remain strong over next few years
• Semi cos. likely to issue weaker guidance in 4Q ’14/1Q ’15
• With >50% rev. exposure to China/Germany weakness, hopes of STMicro being able to improve its margins and rev. will fade, JPM says
• Says co. needs to undergo bold restructuring of its cost base to bring opex in line with industry avg.
European Consumer Services Sector Cut to Underweight at HSBC
European Tech Hardware Sector Raised to Neutral at HSBC
European Semiconductors Sector Cut to Neutral at HSBC
European Insurance Sector Raised to Neutral at HSBC
European Food Retailing Sector Raised to Neutral at HSBC
European Software Sector Raised to Overweight at HSBC
St. James’s Place Rated New Buy at Citi, PT 810p (Close 673p)
Nokian Renkaat Raised to Strong Buy at Nordea; PT Eu31 (Close 22,97)
AstraZeneca Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 5000p (Close 4300)
Munich Re Rated New Hold at Jefferies
Swiss Re Rated New Buy at Jefferies
• Swiss Re likely to pay “sizeable” special dividends for 2014, 2015 as co. has flagged $3b of excess capital that will be assigned either to growth or for return to shareholder repatriation by end 2015, Jefferies says in note today.
• Both Swiss Re, Munich Re seen delivering yields of 8%-9% in years ahead; Swiss Re preferred on $3b excess flagged for reallocation
• Swiss Re 2015 yield of 8.6% seen among highest in sector
• Sees “resilient” volumes in reinsurance
• Deterioration in combined ratio to be limited
• 2014-2016 ROC to be stable, seen at 11% for 2016 vs 13.6% in 2013
• Peak exposures are: Atlantic hurricane $4.5b, Californian earthquake $3.5b, Euro wind $3.8b, Japan earthquake $3.3b
• Munich Re ROCs seen declining 2014-2016 on drop in non-life prices
• Sees ROC dropping to 11.9% in 2016 from 12.6% in 2013
• Sees little or no volume growth
• Sees 2% L/T organic growth on drop in non-life prices, non-renewal of some life reinsurance, limited growth in Germany
• Sees “modest” payout ratio at ~40% with buybacks of EU1b annually used to return excess capital
• Sees 9% total yield, says that one of highest in sector
• Peak catastrophe exposures are: U.S. hurricane EU2.8b, European storm EU1.9b, Australian cyclone EU1.8b -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
General Dynamics (GD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Buckingham Research; tgt raised to $144 from $130
Infosys (INFY) upgraded to Buy form Hold at Deutsche Bank
T-Mobile US (TMUS) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie; tgt raised to $34 from $33
Whirlpool (WHR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow
CME Group (CME) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $5 from $18
Darden Restaurants (DRI) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray; tgt lowered to $50 from $55
Dover downgraded (DOV) to Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt lowered to $85
J. C. Penney (JCP) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS; tgt $5
Johnson Controls (JCI) downgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $49
Juniper Networks (JNPR) downgraded to Hold at Argus
Masco (MAS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Gilead Sciences (GILD) target raised to $130 at FBR Capital
Lam Research (LRCX) added to Conviction Buy list at Goldman; tgt raised to $85 from $78
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reinstated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $119
Monsanto target (MON) lowered to $112 at Topeka Capital Markets
Urban Outfitters (URBN) target raised to $49 at Canaccord Genuity -
Mõned tänased analüüsimajade otsused Euroopas:
Aeroports de Paris Cut to Underperform at Raymond James; PT eu88 (Close 92,46)
Kungsleden Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank
Dios Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Swedbank; PT Sek 58 to 53 (Close 48,5)
Rockwool Raised to Buy at Citi
CRH Raised to Buy at Citi
REC Silicon Raised to Buy vs Sell at Citi
Panalpina Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
Mobistar Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
Belgacom Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Citi
Roche Added to Citi Focus List Europe
Hexagon Composites Raised to Buy vs Sell at DNB
Associated British Foods Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Nomura; PT 2480p to 2610p (Close 2496)
AstraZeneca Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
• Co. can deliver significant premium growth to sector on pipeline progression driven by change in R&D process and culture, BofAML says in note.
• Upgrades to buy, PT 5,000p
• Expects more visibility around next wave of assets at Nov. 18 analyst day, including wee1, cmet, torc1/2 in oncology and some immunology assets (mavrilimumab, arthritis and anifrolumab, SLE)
• Notes co. to see significant newsflow around immuno-oncology assets in 2015 and multiple catalysts for Brilinta by end-2015 (est. peak sales of $3b with upside to $4b)
• Estimates 2017-2022 CAGR of 16%, which could increase to 21% on pipeline success
• Sees low probability of Pfizer deal
Iliad Raised to Outperform vs Sector Perform at RBC; PT Eu221 (Close 156,15)
Generali Rated New Outperform at RBC, PT Eu19 (Close 15,52)
Ablynx Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT Eu15 (Close 7,62)
Iliad Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Coca Cola Icecek Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
Lansdowne Oil & Gas Rated New Buy at Cantor, PT 86p (Close 12,12)
Voestalpine Raised to Buy vs Hold at Jefferies; PT Eu37 (Close 29,56)
Natixis Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu6,5 (Close 5,3)
• We believe Natixis can be among the highest yielding stocks in our banks coverage, on a par with the Nordics and UBS: We have often argued we see positive dividend revision risk as a strong driver of stock performance in the banks sector. We expect Natixis' relatively high return and cash-flow model to drive ~100% payout for 2014e (65% divi, 35% buy-backs), the highest among European banks absent asset management (AM) M&A, with a further ~90% payout 2015-17e driving among best-in-class total capital return at 7% rising to 9% 2017e. Our base case assumes ~€3.8bn capital return 2014-16e, >20% of market cap; SOTP valuation implies 20% upside.
Merlin Properties Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu11,6 (Close 9,99)
• Merlin offers a good play on an attractive underlying Spanish property market. While not without drawbacks, we think the shares are undemandingly valued for the return profile on offer.
KPN Reinstated Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu2,9 (Close 2,29)
• KPN is not without risks but a quartet of positives drives our OW stance. In particular, we think FCF could double by 2019, we see scope for deleveraging (2x by FY17/18e and falling) and DPS growth, and valuation upside (~25%) is superior.
Colt Group Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank
Galp Energia SGPS Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT Eu14,8 (Close 11,68)
BT Group Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank
C&W Communications Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 60p (Close 43,78)
IAG Upgraded; Ebola Fear Overdone, Fuel Price Drop Ignored: HSBC (Close 324,1p)
• IAG 3Q results Oct. 31, CMD Nov.8 likely to reassure, says HSBC in note.
• Ebola unlikely to have major impact on IAG network, effect of fuel price drop ignored -- est. +4% 2015 Ebit upside if current oil price/FX rate sustained
• IAG 3Q traffic, premium demand strong
• Raised to overweight from from neutral; PT lifted to 400p (23% upside) from 380p: HSBC
Henkel Cut to Underperform as BofAML Sees Further De-Rating
• BofAML downgrades Henkel to underperform vs buy, says increasing macro risks aren’t priced in, according to note.
• Sees rising earnings risk, need for M&A to meet 2016 targets
• Brokerage says Adhesives business “vulnerable” to material downgrades due to deteriorating macro outlook
• HPC business facing “intense competition, sluggish demand” and structural headwinds -
Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
Ford Motor (F) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Buckingham Research
T-Mobile US (TMUS) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $35 from $36
Corning (GLW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill; tgt $20
Ford Motor (F) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Home Depot (HD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey
Johnson Controls (JCI) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Lowe's (LOW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey
NetScout Systems (NTCT) downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich; tgt lowered to $40
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill; tgt lowered to $195 from $210
Alibaba (BABA) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $100
Apple (AAPL) target raised to $110 from $96 at Credit Suisse; maintain Neutral
BHP Billiton (BHP) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse
F5 Networks (FFIV) initiated with a Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $140
General Motors (GM) removed from Conviction Buy list at Goldman
Goodyear Tire (GT) target lowered to $31 from $36 at Goldman; removed from Conviction Buy list; maintain Buy
Michael Kors (KORS) initiated with a Hold at Stifel
Norfolk Southern (NSC) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $130
Union Pacific (UNP) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $123 -
Tänased kommentaarid Euroopas:
Lundbeck Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse
Sanofi Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT Eu80 to 95 (Close 83,0)
Swedbank Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse
Linde Upgraded at C. Suisse Amid Focus on Returns, Core Business
•Earnings of industrial gas cos. Are resilient, will support shares in current environment, Credit Suisse says in note; Linde has ability to outperform peers by improving returns, capital mgmt.
• Credit Suisse upgrades Linde to neutral vs underperform, PT EU153 vs EU140
• Brokerage says co. may follow “back to basics” strategy under new CEO
• Narrow gap in returns vs Air Liquide, peers with focus on core business; expects Linde to close ROCE gap to peers by 90bps by 2016, improve FCF generation
• Asset swaps with other players to improve asset utilizations, cost efficiencies
• Says capital discipline may lead to increase in div. payout
• Says positives mitigate possible S/T earnings risk; notes earnings headwinds for 2015 are moderating ex macro conditions
Sanitec Cut to Hold at Nordea
SSAB Raised to Neutral at BofAML
Kloeckner Cut to Underperform at BofAML
Aurubis Raised to Buy at BofAML
Gamesa Added to Europe 1 List at BofAML
Aveva Valuation Is too Low, Credit Suisse Says; Up to Outperform (Close 1364p)
•Share price decline improves risk/reward profile, makes it more attractive for shareholders even though the momentum in oil, gas sector remains mixed, Credit Suisse says in note.
• Raises stock to outperform from neutral; PT raised 6% to 1800p
• Stock has fallen -11.4% month-to-date vs a -7.1% fall in the Stoxx 600 Technology index; is down -37% YTD vs a -5.1% fall in the SX8P index
TSB Banking Rated New Sell at Canaccord, PT 230p (Close 261p)
Alstom Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen; PT Eu31 (Close 25,5)
Iliad Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy; PT Eu287 to 266 (Close 171,1)
Telenet Removed From Goldman Conviction Buy List; Stays Buy
CEZ Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Czk 650 (Close 596,5)
BBVA Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT Eu9,2 to 10,5 (Close 9,03)
Swiss Re Raised to Marketperform vs Underperform at Bernstein; PT Sfr70 to 74 (Close 73,05)
Rosneft Cut to Neutral vs Buy at BofAML
Vestas Wind Systems Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at BofAML
Vestas Wind Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
Vestas Wind Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT Dkr175 to 185 (Close 178,1)
(1) Concerns on average selling prices overdone: The influx of US orders has correlated with a fall in average selling prices. We believe this is due to a mix towards 'supply-only' orders, and this should not impact absolute margins. We also note the euro has weakened versus the dollar in the past 3 months, meaning the euro value of the backlog could rise at Q3 results; (2) Weak 2016 already in our forecasts: We expect 2016 deliveries for the group to be weak, at c5.0GW (versus the LT average of c5.5GW) given US developers have pulled forward projects into 2015. If the subsidy is not extended, then there could be a further slowdown, meaning just c4.0GW of deliveries in 2016; (3) No longer pricing in % EBITDA margins above previous peaks: We believe a high D&A charge— driven by legacy investments—means EBITDA (rather than EBIT) margins are more appropriate to analyse Vestas. We forecast c13% EBITDA margins (the 2008 peak) and do not believe they can go higher from here on.
Aveva Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 1700p to 1800p (CLose 1364)
• Following the recent profits warning, we downgraded FY15E profits by 22%. Having taken a detailed review of our forecasts, we downgrade profits by a further 3%. Consensus has not fully settled, but we believe this takes us c10% below consensus.
• Much of the investor debate has focused around the non-recurrence of supposedly recurring rental revenues and we forecast a 33% reduction in 1H15 rentals. However, much of this relates to FX, timing differences and accounting treatments. On an underlying basis we think the decline is closer to 5%. That is not ideal, but it is a far more resilient message than investor fears.
Lufthansa Rated Hold at Cantor; Was Under Review
Hargreaves Lansdown Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
HeidelbergCement Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Ladbrokes Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays
CGG Resumed Underweight at Barclays
Leoni Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Exane
K+S Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Solvay Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight at Barclays
Air Liquide Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays
Daimler Raised to Overweight vs Underweight at Barclays
SABMiller Cut to Underperform at RBC Capital
Heineken’s Growth Outlook Deserves a Premium, Goldman Says
• Heineken’s exceptional growth vs the consumer staples sector warrants a premium, Goldman says, raises to buy vs sell.
• Co. has enhanced its geographic exposure, shifting away from tough European mkts toward emerging mkts that offer better growth, margins
• Raises ests. for organic growth, margin growth, M&A, sees 2014-2016 avg. EPS growth of 14% vs ~10% for staples cos. covered
• PT raised ~35% to EU69 vs EU51 (implies ~22% upside)
• Next catalyst: 3Q sales Oct. 22
Bayer’s growth potential, pipeline undervalued, valuation into 2015 “compelling” with at least
17% potential upside, according to JPMorgan note.
• JPMorgan rates overweight vs not rated, PT EU120
• Sees Pharma Ebitda CAGR of 10% in 2014-19 led by growth of key launches (Xarelto, Eylea, Xofigo, Stivarga, Adempas)
• Expects further longer-term upgrades as data from new products is released
• Potential 2015 weakness at CropScience, MaterialScience already reflected in ests.
• Sees “solid” 3Q, 2014 Ebitda forecast raised to “mid single-digit growth” after inclusion of Merck Consumer business in 4Q -
Analüüsimajade kommentaarid täna Euroopas:
GKN Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Exane
Fortum Raised to Sell From Strong Sell at Nordea; PT eu15,3 (Close 17,72)
Aveva Group Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 1760p (Close 1372)
Huhtamaeki Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT Eu20,4 to 22 (Close 19,33)
TeliaSonera Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank; PT Sek51,0 to 52 (Close 45,8)
Electrolux Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Swedbank
AstraZeneca Added to Europe 1 List at BofAML
Vivendi Resumed Buy at BofAML, PT Eu20 (Close 17,59)
Seadrill Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Nok215 to 120 (Close 153,4)
K+S Raised to Neutral vs Reduce at Nomura; PT Eu24 (Close 19,6)
DSM Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Nomura; PT eu63 to 58 (Close 45,4)
CGG Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Eu9 to 5,0 (Close 6,29)
Connect Group Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 183p to 170p (Close 164)
Akzo Nobel Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Nomura; PT Eu62 to 63 (Close 47,63)
Iliad Resumed Overweight at HSBC; PT Eu210 (Close 164,3)
Havas Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT Eu7,1 to 6,6 (Close 5,52)
Danske Bank Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen; PT Dkk140 to 150 (Close 145,3)
H&M Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman Sachs; PT Sek245 to 281 (Close 272,5)
Ferrexpo Removed From UBS Least Preferred List
Antofagasta Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS
Rostelecom Cut to Underweight vs Equalweight at Barclays; PT Rub107 (Close 102,1)
