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Börsipäev 4. detsember

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  • S&P 500 indeks sulgus eile 0,4% kõrgemal ning Dow Jones Industrial Average kerkis 0,2%. Mõlemad indeksid saavutasid eile oma uued rekordid. Kolmandat järjestikust päeva tõusid ka energeetikasektori aktsiad (eile +1,2%), kui WTI nafta kerkis 0,5%, kaubeldes $67,3 barrelist. Käesoleval nädalal on sektori tootlus olnud +3,2%. Ka Euroopa aktsiaturud kauplesid eile valdavalt plusspoolel, Stoxx Europe 600 indeks lõpetas päeva 0,6% kõrgemal.

    Eile avaldatud USA makroandmetest jäi ootustele alla ADP tööjõuturu küsitluse järgi loodud töökohtade arv, mis oli 208 000 vs prognoositud 225 000. Samas tõusis ISM teenustesektori indeks oktoobri 57,1 punkti pealt 59,3 punktini, mis oli palju tugevam näitaja kui konsensuse oodatud 57,5 punkti. Eile avaldas USA Keskpank ka ülevaate riigi majandusolukorrast (Beige Book) novembris, mille kohaselt majandusaktiivsus jätkas kasvamist. Keskpanga sõnul suurenesid tarbijate kulutused, kusjuures abiks olid siinkohal madalamad bensiinihinnad ning samuti märgiti, et tööhõive kasv on väga laiapõhjaline. Hinna- ja palgainflatsioon püsib endiselt tagasihoidlikul tasemel.

    Tänane kauplemispäev Aasias on alanud samuti positiivsetes toonides. Eriti tugevat esitust on pakkumas Hiina aktsiaturg, kui Shanghai Composite indeks on rallimas kirjutamise hetkel 3,8%, saavutades kolme aasta kõrgeima taseme.

    Makrokalender on täna keskpankade päralt, kui intressimäärade üle otsustavad Inglismaa ja Euroopa keskpangad. Mõlema puhul muutusi intressimäärades ei oodata.

    14.00 Inglismaa Keskpanga intressimäärade otsus
    14.45 Euroopa Keskpanga intressimäärade otsus
    15.30 USA töötu abiraha taotlejate arv
    15.30 Mario Draghi pressikonverents

    USA ja Euroopa aktsiaindeksite futuurid on kauplemas 0,1% plussis.
  • Täna on oma novembrikuu reisjanumbrid avaldanud Euroopa lennufirmad easyJet, Ryanair ja Aer Lingus. easyJeti reisijate arv kasvas aastatagusega võrreldes 3,1%, tõustes 4,4 miljoni reisijani. Lennukite täituvus oli 89,5% vs 89%. Viimase 12-kuu jooksul on ettevõte teenindanud 65,2 miljonit reisijat, mida on 6,5% rohkem kui eelnenud 12-kuu perioodi jooksul. Ryanairi reisijate arv novembris oli 6,4 miljonit ehk võrreldes eelmise aastaga tõus 23% ning lennukite täituvus kasvas 81% pealt 88% peale. 12-kuu lõikes kasvas reisijate arv 5%, küündides 85,4 miljonini. Aer Lingus, kes lühimaa lendude kõrval pakub ka pikamaa lende, teatas, et viimase segmendi reisijate arvu kasv oli 28,4%. Samas ei suutnud see kõrvaldada lühimaa lendudel 9,1% langenud reisijate arvu mõju ning üleüldiselt langes reisijate arv 4,4% 613 000 inimeseni. Aer Linguse lennukite täituvus langes 73,3% pealt 72,6% peale. Käesoleva aasta 11 kuuga on Aer Linguse reisijate arv kasvanud 1,9%. easyJet kauplemas 2,8%, Ryanair 8,5% ning Aer Lingus 2,4% plussis.
  • Hispaania 5 ja 10 aastased võlakirjad läksid tänasel oksjonil rekordmadalate tulusustega
    • Spain sells EU1.27b of 10-year bonds at record-low yield of 1.84% vs 2.123% at Nov. 6 sale.
    • Sells EU1b of 5Y notes at record-low yield of 0.946%
    • Also sells EU1.24b of 3Y securities
    • Sells EU3.51b of bonds vs EU3.5b max. target


    Ka Prantsusmaa võlakirjad müüdi eelmiste oksjonitega võrreldes madalamate tulusustega
    • France Sells EUR2.075 Bln 1.75% 2023 Bonds; Yld 0.76% (previous 0.94%)
    • France Sells EUR1.332 Bln 6% 2025 Bonds; Yld 1.11%. Not directly comperable.
    • France Sells EUR590 Mln 2.75% 2027 Bonds; Yld 1.39% (previous 1.61%)
  • Vallo Lees
    Täna on oma novembrikuu reisjanumbrid avaldanud Euroopa lennufirmad easyJet, Ryanair ja Aer Lingus. easyJeti reisijate arv kasvas aastatagusega võrreldes 3,1%, tõustes 4,4 miljoni reisijani. Lennukite täituvus oli 89,5% vs 89%. Viimase 12-kuu jooksul on ettevõte teenindanud 65,2 miljonit reisijat, mida on 6,5% rohkem kui eelnenud 12-kuu perioodi jooksul. Ryanairi reisijate arv novembris oli 6,4 miljonit ehk võrreldes eelmise aastaga tõus 23% ning lennukite täituvus kasvas 81% pealt 88% peale. 12-kuu lõikes kasvas reisijate arv 5%, küündides 85,4 miljonini. Aer Lingus, kes lühimaa lendude kõrval pakub ka pikamaa lende, teatas, et viimase segmendi reisijate arvu kasv oli 28,4%. Samas ei suutnud see kõrvaldada lühimaa lendudel 9,1% langenud reisijate arvu mõju ning üleüldiselt langes reisijate arv 4,4% 613 000 inimeseni. Aer Linguse lennukite täituvus langes 73,3% pealt 72,6% peale. Käesoleva aasta 11 kuuga on Aer Linguse reisijate arv kasvanud 1,9%. easyJet kauplemas 2,8%, Ryanair 8,5% ning Aer Lingus 2,4% plussis.


    Lisaks sellele tõstis Ryanair majandusaasta kasumiprognoosi €810-830 mln peale varasema €750-770 mln pealt. Majandusaasta reisijate arvu prognoos tõsteti 90+ mln peale varasema 89 mln pealt.
  • Inglismaa Keskpank üllatusi ei pakkunud:

    Bank of England leaves benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and asset purchase program steady at GBP375 bln; both expected
  • Ka Euroopa Keskpank jättis intressimäärad muutmata:

    At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.05%, 0.30% and -0.20% respectively.
  • USA töötu abiraha taotlejate arv vastab enam-vähem ootustele:

    Continuing Claims 2.362 mln vs 2.343 mln Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 2.323 mln from 2.316 mln
    Initial Claims 297K vs 295K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 314K from 313K
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TLYS +18%, PSUN +16.5%, RYAAY +7.4% (Guidance) AVGO +7.2%, ENB +6.5%, LB +5.4% (SSS) SHLD +2.2%, COST +0.6% (SSS).

    M&A news: HE +17% (agreed to combine in transaction valued at ~$4.3 billion), ARIA +1.7% (speculation that Asterzenca (AZN) and Shire (SHPG) are interested), KOG +1.1% (Whiting Petroleum Stockholders Approve Acquisition of Kodiak Oil & Gas), BBY +1% (to sell its Five Star Business in China)

    Select China related names showing strength after Shanghai gained 4% last night: PTR +5.5%, LFC +2.7%, JRJC +2.6%, CEO +2.6%

    Other news: CACH +64.5% (announces review of strategic alternatives), ARRY +23.8% (to regain worldwide rights to Binimetinib), APDN +19.5% (signs with fourth federal agency), OXF +18.8% (disclosed that on December 2, 2014, it was notified the NYSE that it regained compliance with the share price continued listing standard of the NYSE), SCOK +18.2% (begins construction of second aboveground syngas facility; plans to double output capacity), PLUG +15.1% (signs multi-year ReliOn fuel cell contract with communications company valued at $20 mln), CDXS +12.6% (announced it has developed a novel enzyme therapeutic product candidate for the potential treatment of phenylketonuria), APPY +5.3% (will provide business update on Monday, Dec 8 at 4:30 following FDA request for additional info on APPY1 direct de novo submission), CTIC +4.1% (receives $15 mln milestone payment for TRISENOX), AMBA +3% (ahead of earnings after the close), JBLU +2.8% (peer Ryanair (RYAAY) reported Nov traffic, raised profit outlook), MTOR +2.3% (still checking), DAL +2.1% (peer Ryanair (RYAAY) reported Nov traffic, raised profit outlook), UL +2% (to create stand alone business unit within Spreads division), PRA +1.8% (has authorized a special dividend of $2.65 per common share, increased its regular dividend by 3.3% to $0.31/share and adds to share repurchase authorization ), ALV +1.8% (cont strength after confirming will supply replacement airbag inflators to be used by Honda (HMC)), ISIS +1.7% (ISIS-APOCIII Rx Phase 2 study in patients with familial chylomicronemia published ), UN +1.7%, RFMD +1.6% (may be in symp with AVGO earnings), FEYE +1.3% (on going volatility surrounding Sony sec breach), EJ +1.3% (announced the details of the partial spin off of Leju Holdings (LEJU)), HDNG +1.1% (light volume; Privet Fund disclosed 7% stake; has engaged in discussions with management regarding the operations and strategic direction), VA +0.8% (peer Ryanair (RYAAY) reported Nov traffic, raised profit outlook)

    Analyst comments: MBLY +4.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), INFI +2.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), ORAN +2.3% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse), CSX +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), PG +1% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), AA +0.5% (initiated with a Outperform at Wells Fargo)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SEAC -11.4%, ARO -10.7%, EXPR -10.6%, GIL -7.6%, VRNT -3.2%, PVH -1.4%, REX -1.1%, GES -0.8%, TD -0.7%, DG -0.6%

    M&A news: UTIW -12% (responds to Bloomberg article about UTi Worldwide and DSV A/S, currently no discussions)

    Select Brazil related names showing weakness: SID -2.3%, CIG -2.1%, TSU -1.7%, ERJ -1.7%, VALE -0.9%

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: AU -1.6%, SLW -1%, IAG -0.8%, GG -0.8%, GOLD -0.6%

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -2.5%, PBR -2.4%, BP -2.1%, STO -1.8%, TOT -1.7%, RIG -1.5%, RDS.A -1.4%

    Other news: KIN -26.4% (has re-assessed its atopic dermatitis program and the atopic dermatitis market and has decided to discontinue its AtoKin study in favor of directing resources toward other programs in its portfolio), ADC -3.3% (Agree Realty commenced underwritten public offering of 2.1 mln newly issued shares of common stock), SGY -2.3% (provided an operational update on its Cardona deep water development project; The Cardona project initial production testing started in late November and the two wells have been tested and will be closely monitored with flow rates ramping up over a four week period), MTRN -2.1% (announced that SVP, Finance and CFO John D. Grampa plans to retire from the Company prior to the end of 2015), PRO -1.6% ( announces private offering of $125 million of convertible senior notes due 2019), CLF -1.2% (announces termination with respect to tender offers for certain of its senior notes)

    Analyst comments: DISH -2.6% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays), BRFS -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), RIO -2.1% (downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA/Merrill), WMT -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), BHP -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), CIR -0.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T Capital Mkts), TUP -0.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets).

    Allikas: Briefing.com
  • EKP langetab ka järgnevate aastate inflatsiooni ja majanduskasvu prognoose, mida ka oodati:
    ECB cuts 2014 inflation to 0.5% vs. 0.6%
    ECB cuts 2015 inflation to 0.7% vs. 1.1%
    ECB cuts 2016 inflation to 1.3% vs. 1.4%

    ECB cuts 2014 GDP growth to 0.8% vs. 0.9%
    ECB cuts 2015 GDP growth to 1.0% vs. 1.6%
    ECB cuts 2016 GDP growth to 1.5% vs. 1.9%

    Major revisions were due to three countries (Germany, France and Italy) led the downside revision in inflation; says it could fall further with oil prices; says will not tolerate long run in lower pricing; preparing itself in the way described in the introductory statement; does not want an unwanted tightening in monetary stance due to an slide in inflation expectations. Should it become necessary to further address risks, then the government council remains unanimous in using additional tools in order to achieve its goals. This would involve altering early next year the size and pace of its measures.

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