LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 6. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Öeldakse, aasta esimene kauplemispäev ning jaanuar tervikuna on eeskujuks terve aasta liikumisele. Ehkki esimene kauplemispäev oli reedel, ütles esmaspäev kõrgema käibe põhjal paremini, millise meeleoluga uude aastasse astuti ning see pilt polnud kuigi rõõmustav.

    Nafta otsib endiselt põhjasid, kukkudes eile -5% 50 dollarile (Brent -5,8% 53,1 dollarile), mis muutis energiasektori aktsiad suurimaks kannatajaks (S&P 500 indeksi energiasektor -3,9%) ning kahjustas kogu turu sentimenti (S&P 500 sulgus -1,8% madalamal).

    Endiselt püsib lootus, et jaanuar kujuneb lõpuks positiivseks kuuks aga maad tuleb tagasi võita juba üksjagu, eriti Euroopas, kus viimase kahe päeva müügilaine on viinud Saksamaa DAXi aasta alguse tasemest -3,4% madalamale, Prantsusmaa CAC40 indeksi -3,8% allapoole ja Itaalia FTSE MIB indeksi -4,33% punasesse.

    Kriisijärgses maailmas pole kunagi olnud puudust põhjustest, mis panevad investorid homse pärast muretsema ja sama lugu kehtib ka praegu, mil peamiselt seeditakse globaalse majanduse väljavaadet. Sestap ei ole kuigi üllatav, et suhteliselt kõrgete valuatsioonide juures lastakse veidi õhku välja aga see tuleb turu tervisele vaid kasuks ning muudab kõrval istuvale rahale võimaluste otsimise lihtsamaks.

    Liikudes tänase päeva juurde, siis põhifookus langeb teenindussektori detsembrikuu aktiivsusindeksitele nii eurotsoonis kui Ühendriikides.

    09.45 Prantsusmaa tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (detsember)
    10.15 Hispaania teenindussektori PMI (detsember)
    10.45 Itaalia teenindussektori PMI (detsember)
    10.50 Prantsusmaa teenindussektori PMI (detsembri lõplik)
    10.55 Saksamaa teenindussektori PMI (detsembri lõplik)
    11.00 Eurotsooni teenindussektori PMI (detsembri lõplik)
    11.30 Suurbritannia teenindussektori PMI (detsember)
    16.45 USA Markiti teenindussektori PMI (detsember)
    17.00 USA tehaste tellimused (november)
    17.00 USA teenindussektoris ISM (detsember)

    Euroopa aktsiaturud on alustamas väikese plussiga, USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,1% madalamal.
  • Prantsusmaa tarbijate kindlustunde indeks paranes detsembris kahe punkti võrra 90 punkti peale vs oodatud 88 punkti. Võrreldes novembriga tundsid tarbijad paranemist isiklikus finantsseisus ning tulevikus nähakse nii tööturu väljavaate, elustandardi kui säästmisvõime paranemist (eeldatavalt aitab kaasa ka naftahinna langus).
  • Hispaania teenindussektori aktiivsus paranes detsembris oodatust rohkem, kui PMI kerkis 52,7 punkti pealt 54,3 punktile (oodati 53,4). Uute tellimuste indeks 54,9 vs 51,8 novembris (kõrgeim alates augustist).
  • Larry Summersi arvates võib EKP teha nii palju QEd kui tahab aga väga palju see nõudlusele abiks pole, soovitab valitsuste eelarvetega kasvule kaasa aidata.

    ECB Will Find It Near Impossible to Lift Demand, Summers Says
  • Vaatamata negatiivsele intressimäärale on kommertspankade üleöö deposiidid Euroopa Keskpangas hiljuti drastiliselt kasvanud. Kardetakse midagi või on see tavapärane käitumine, sest mullu samal ajal toimus midagi sarnast? (joonis mln eur)

  • ITALY DEC. SERVICES PMI FALLS TO 49.4; FORECAST 51.7; PRIOR 51.8

  • Saksamaa ja Prantsusmaa teenindussektori detsembri esialgsed PMId korrigeeriti paremaks

    Germany Dec. Services PMI 52.1 vs Flash Reading 51.4 (52.1 in November)
    New Business fall to 48.4 vs 51 in Nov. (Lowest reading since June 2013)

    France Dec. Services PMI 50.6 vs Flash Reading 49.8 (47,9 in November)
    New Business rise to 51.4 vs 47.3 in Nov. (Highest reading since Aug. 2014)
  • Eurotsooni teenindussektori detsembri PMI korrigeeriti 51,9 punkti pealt 51,6 punkti peale, mis jäi siiski paremaks võrreldes novembri 51,1 punktiga.

    Nii töötleva tööstuse kui ka teenindussektori ühine PMI revideeriti samuti allapoole 51,7 punkti pealt 51,4 punktile (novembris 51,1). Kokkuvõttes mitte midagi, millest koju kirjutada nagu Markit kommenteerib:

    The eurozone economy ended 2014 with its worst quarter for over a year. There’s some relief in that the rate of growth picked up slightly in December, rather than easing further, but the PMI reading was still the second-lowest seen for 17 months, highlighting another disappointing lacklustre performance. GDP looks set to rise by a mere 0.1% in the fourth quarter. The eurozone will look upon 2014 as a year in which recession was avoided by the narrowest of margins, but the weakness of the survey data suggests there’s no guarantee that a renewed downturn will not be seen in 2015.

    Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse ja teeenindussektori PMI
  • Suurbritannia teenindussektori aktiivsust kajastav indeks viitas detsembris endiselt korralikule kasvule, mis oli siiski aeglasem võrreldes novembriga ning madalaim 1,5a jooksul (PMI langes 58,6 punkti pealt 55,8 punktile vs oodatud 58,5).
  • Tuleb üks eriline päev turgudel.
  • Elon Muski SpaceX saadab 10min pärast raketi koos varustuse kapsliga kosmosesse ning üritab seejärel raketi tervelt tagasi maale tuua. Live pilt
  • lükati edasi eeldatavalt reede peale
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NSPR +28.2%, HLX +0.7%, IBB +0.5%

    M&A related news: AOL +5.6% (Verizon (VZ) may soon consider AOL acquisition or joint venture, according to reports)

    Select Airliner names showing strength: UAL +1.6%, JBLU +1.3%, HA +1.3%, DAL +0.9%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: HMY +4.7%, VALE +4.1%, ACH +3.2%, CLF +2.1%, GFI +1.6%, MT +1.5%

    Other news: NERV +61.5% (reported positive data showing an analog of Minerva's MIN-301 compound improves symptoms of Parkinson's Disease in primates), CYTR +28.8% (positive interim Phase 2 Aldoxorubicin results in Glioblastoma Multiforme), FRO +13.2% (positive mention on Fast Money), ABGB +9.6% (and EIG Global Energy Partners sign an agreement to jointly invest in the development of Abengoa's projects under construction), ALKS +5% (positive results from study of ALKS 5461 for treatment of major depressive disorder), TASR +3.5% (receipt of several orders for a total of 3,130 TASER X26P Smart Weapons for the LAPD), AN +3.2% (announces December 2014 reported retail new vehicle unit sales increased 12%), OPTT +3.1% (announced its Board of Directors has appointed George H. Kirby as President, CEO, and Director effective January 20, 2015), EBIX +2.9% (announces resolution of IRS audit), CANF +2.3% (announced its anticipated clinical milestones for calendar 2015), AU +2.1% (still checking), SLXP +1.6% (Carolyn Logan to retire as Chief Executive Officer), GPRO +1.4% (still checking), AAL +1.3% (submits application to U.S. Department Of Transportation to serve Tokyo's Haneda Airport from Los Angeles), VOXX +0.9% (added fourteen new Rep groups to support the distribution of the new 360º action camera)

    Analyst comments: DEG +6.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), HDP +4.2% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman,initiated with an Outperform at Pacific Crest), LOCO +3.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), NEWR +1.7% (initiated with a Overweight at JP Morgan), GILD +1.2% (initiated with an Overweight at Barclays), BLOX +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), ORCL +0.9% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: XOOM -8.2%, (co disclosed it has been the victim of criminal fraud and expects to record a one-time charge of $30.8 mln in Q4; CFO Matt Hibbard has resigned; co also provided upside Q4 rev guidance), CMC -7.4%, EBF -1.4%

    Select India related names showing weakness after weakness in Sensex overnight: IBN -3.6%, SSLT -3.1%, SSL -2.1%, INFY -1.2%, TTM -0.9%

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: WHX -2.4%, REXX -2.3%, OAS -2.1%, TOT -0.9%, RDS.A -0.8%, STO -0.8%

    Other news: MSTX -8.5% (provided update on EPIC study enrollment and 2015 milestones: EPIC study more than one-third complete), CYBX -8.3% (announced the receipt of a decision from the Departmental Appeals Board of the Department of Health and Human Services; coverage for the treatment-resistant depression indication found to be not reasonable and necessary), CERS -7.9% (announced proposed public offering of common stock), FPRX -7.5% (announced $75 mln proposed public offering of common stock) NLSN -3.3% (CNBC to stop using ratings services from NLSN because some portion of audience is not being counted, according to reports), CEL -2.6% (still checking), ISIS -0.8% (announced appointment of Sarah Boyce as Chief Business Officer)

    Analyst comments: INFN -5.3% (removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman), KORS -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse ), QGEN -2.1% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), FIG -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), APO -0.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), GE -0.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank)

    Allikas: Briefing.com
  • USA teenindussektori ISM oodatust nõrgem

    Dec. ISM Non-Manufacturing Falls to 56.2; Est. 58 vs 59.3 prior month
    • New orders fell to 58.9 vs 61.4
    • Employment fell to 56.0 vs 56.7
    • Prices paid fell to 49.5 vs 54.4
    • New export orders fell to 53.5 vs 57.0

  • USA tehaste tellimused samuti tagasihoidlikumad

    USD Factory Orders (NOV): -0.7% actual vs -0.5% estimate, -0.7% prior.
  • Küsitluste kohaselt on USA majandus endiselt kasvamas, kuid märksa aeglasemalt võrreldes kolmanda kvartaliga. Markit:

    “The PMI surveys act as good leading indicators of GDP data, and suggest that the pace of US economic growth will have slowed in the fourth quarter. According to the PMIs, fourth quarter growth is looking more like 2.0% rather than the 5.0% annualised rate of expansion enjoyed in the third quarter.
    “Job creation has waned alongside the slowdown, with the survey indicating that monthly payroll growth has slipped significantly below the 200,000 mark. Companies have become increasingly reluctant to take on staff due to the cloudier economic outlook, in turn linked to various factors ranging from global geopolitical concerns, worries about higher interest rates and uncertainty about rising staff healthcare costs."

  • Micron prelim $0.97 vs $0.92 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $4.57 bln vs $4.61 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    MU teatab oodatust paremad kvartalitulemused, aktsia kauplemas kerges plussis, $ 33,00

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