Börsipäev 13. jaanuar
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Nafta astus eile taas sammukese allapoole (WTI -4,7%, sulgudes 46,07 dollaril), kui kulutulena levis Goldman Sachsi analüüs, milles viimane kärpis toornafta hinnasihte kuni 12 kuu lõikes ning ütles, et WTI barrel maksab kolme kuu pärast 41 dollarit ja Brent 42 dollarit.
Naftahinna languse netoefekt Ühendriikide majandusele on jätkuvalt debatiks. Detsembris tõi UBS oma analüüsis välja, et enne kildanafta revolutsiooni oleks WTI odavnemine 10 dollari võrra lisanud USA majandusele 0,2-0,3 protsendipunkti, nüüd aga hinnatakse kasuteguriks 0,1protsendipunkti ning netoefekt muutub veelgi küsitavamaks, kui hind langeb alla Põhja-Ameerika naftatootjate nullkasumi piiri.
Mõistagi on see kõige negatiivsem energiasektori ettevõtete jaoks. Ühendriikides peaks antud firmade kasum kahanema neljandas kvartalis -19,1%, kui alles kolm kuud varem oodati 8%list kasvu. Seda enam tuleb teistel sektoritel kompenseerida energiasektori ettevõtete kasumilangust, aga neljanda kvartali kasumiootuste kärpimine on olnud laiapõhjaline ning puudutanud S&P 500 indeksi kõiki kümmet sektorit, ka tarbekaupade oma, mis tegelikult peaks olema suurim võitja. Factseti andmetel prognoosib analüütikute konsensus S&P 500 ettevõtete neljanda kvartali aktsiakasumi protsendist kasvu ning kui energiasektor välja arvata, paraneks tõus vaid 3,6%ni.
S&P 500 indeks sulgus eile -0,8% madalamal, Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 indeks 0,6% kõrgemal.
Öösel on Aasia aktsiaturud kaubelnud erisuunaliselt, leidmata tuge Hiina oodatust paremast kaubandusstatistikast. Riigi detsembrikuu ekspordikasv kiirenes 4,7% pealt 9,7%ni (konsensus prognoosis 6,0%) ning impordi YoY langus aeglustus -6,7% pealt -2,4%ni (prognoositi -6,2%).
Liikudes tänase majandusuudiste bloki juurde, siis Euroopas võiksid suuremat tähelepanu pälvida Itaalia novembrikuu tööstustoodang ja Suurbritannia detsembri inflatsioon. Ühendriikides selgub väikeettevõtete kindlustunde indeks.
10.30 Rootsi inflatsioon (detsember)
11.00 Itaalia tööstustoodang (november)
11.30 Suurbritannia inflatsioon (detsember)
16.00 USA väikeettevõtete kindlustunde indeks (detsember)
21.00 USA valitsuse eelarve tasakaal (detsember) -
Hispaania meedia kohaselt vajab Kataloonia sellel aastal riiklikust abifondist 6,3 miljardit eurot, et katta võlakohustusi ja eelarve puudujääki
Catalonia to Request EU6.3B From Central Government: Expansion
• Regional govt. of Catalonia will request EU6.3b from regional rescue fund known as FLA in 2015, Expansion reports.
• Catalan economy ministry sent report to investors saying it will request amount to cover debt maturities and 2015 deficit -
Gluskin Sheffi David Rosenberg jagab seekord oma analüüsi tasuta ning toob seal välja, et aktsiaturgude kõrged valuatsioonid pole ajalooliselt kunagi olnud pullituru lõppemise põhjuseks. Selle asemel tuleb otsida punkti, kus FEDi reguleeritud intressimäär hakkab majandustegevust jahutama aga tema arvates mõjub see kuni 2%ni majandusele veel positiivselt. Link
To be sure, valuations are more stretched now and this bull phase far more mature, but take note that price to-earnings multiples and old age have never caused a bull market to end. Never.
Our research shows that anything up to a 2% fed funds rate is still a positive for growth — the Fed up to that point is still just removing fat from the steak. -
WTI täna alla 45USD, OPEC veel ei pilguta
UAE OIL MINISTER SAYS OPEC HAS NO INTENTION OF MEETING BEFORE JUNE OR CUTTING PRODUCTION - RTRS -
Itaalia novembrikuu tööstustoodang osutus oodatust veidi paremaks, kasvades oktoobri baasil 0,3% (prognoositi 0,1%) ning oli mullusega võrreldes -1,8% madalam (prognoositi -2,7%).
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Suurbritannia inflatsioon aeglustus detsembris 0,5pp võrra 0,5% peale (oodati 0,7%), kuid toitu ja energiat arvestamata kiirenes hinnatõus 0,1pp 1,3%, mis vastas ka ootustele.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BEBE +18.5%, PCYC +12.2%, HEAR +11.9%, ELX +11.9%, XENT +10.9%, CTIC +9.1%, SNX +5.7%, ZIXI +5.4%, HXL +4.1%, KGC +2.3%, AA +1.4%, AET +0.5%
Select Brazil related names showing strength: GOL +4.4%, GGB +3.9%, ABGB +3.7%, SID +3.5%, EBR +2.9%, ITUB +2.3%, VALE +2%, BSBR +1.9%
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: AU +3.5%, AEM +2.7%, SLV +2.4%, GDX +1.5%, SLW +1.3%, ABX +1.3%, GG +0.9%
Other news: NLST +53.4% (Federal Court update; advanced trial date up 4 mos), BVX +19% (announced all J-Plasma disposable hand pieces as well as the Bovie Ultimate generator have received CE Mark approval), GEVO +18.7% (co has launched sales of renewable isobutanol to Brenntag Canada), MNGA +13.5% (cont momentum higher following yday's advance), RSH +10.3% (potential $500 mln loan from Salus Capital), TOPS +6% (co entered into a sale and leaseback agreement for two of its vessels: the M/T StenaWeco Energy and the M/T StenaWeco Evolution), PBR +4.4% (announces that total oil and natural gas production in December reached an average of 2.863 mln barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing the best result ever achieved in the history of the co), HXL +4.1% (co initiated a $0.10 per share quarterly dividend; co also provided guidance), AG +4% (production guidance update), RLH +3.7% (co entered into an agreement to sell its hotel in Bellevue, Wash. for $35.4 mln to an affiliate of Wig Properties), ARIA +3.2% (announces key strategic objectives for 2015 ), BLCM +3.1% (Baker Bros. Advisors disclosed 16.3% passive stake in 13G filing), AKS +2.4% (in symp with AA earnings)
Analyst comments: BBY +3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), SONC +2.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), SPWR +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), FCAU +1.9% (resumed with an Overweight at Barclays), AMZN +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), ALK +1.4% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank), AAPL +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $130 from $110), TKMR +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Leerink Partners), SWKS +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ECOM -37.1%, BGFV -9.6%, WWW -6.7%, LMNR -4.6%, PHG -1.8%, DAN -1%
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: OXY -2%, SDRL -1.4%, RIG -1.4%, RIG -1.3%, BAS -1.3%, NOV -1.2%, SLB -1.1%, HAL -1.1%, EXH -0.8%.
Other news: ANW -10.2% (announced proposed offering of $40 mln of additional 4.00% convertible senior notes due 2018), ATRS -7.7% (received written recommendations from the FDA related to its clinical development program for QuickShot Testosterone), AUY -5.1% (announces C$260.2 mln equity financing; also dg at HSBC), AIV -2.3% (announced it has commenced a public offering of 8.2 mln shares of its common stock), BRX -2.3% (announced offering of 17.5 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders), SFY -2.2% (announces a revised 2015 capital budget range of $100-125 mln; Eagle Ford wells update), HPP -2.1% (announced it has commenced a public offering of 9.5 mln shares of common stock), BURL -1.2% (announced offering of 12.5 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders)
Analyst comments: JUNO -4.6% (initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $52), SNN -2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), MOS -1.5% (downgraded to Sector Underperform from Sector Perform at CIBC), CUZ -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), CE -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey), FE -0.7% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), ED -0.6% (downgraded to Sell at Evercore ISI), COST -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)
Allikas: Briefing.com -
USA väikeettevõtete kindlustunde indeks paranes detsembris 2,3 punkti 100,4 punktini, rohkem kui analüütikute oodatud 98,5 punkti
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Vaatamata naftahinna langusele ootab EIA värskes raportis USA naftatoodangu kasvu nii sellel kui järgmisel aastal
Forecast for West Texas Intermediate has been trimmed to $54.58 per barrel in 2015. This is 13 per cent lower than the EIA's projection of $63 last month.
For Brent, the EIA expects prices to average $57.58 per barrel in 2015, against its previous expectations of $68 last month.
Total US crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.2m barrels per day (bbl/d) in December.
There is little let-up seen in production. Despite the 55 per cent collapse in crude prices over the past six months, the EIA expects oil production to grow to an average of 9.3m b/d next year and to 9.5m b/d in 2016.
"Drilling activity is expected to increase and U.S. production should rise in 2016 to its second highest daily output level since record production was set in 1970." -
KBH tõmbab tervet kinnisvasektorit täna allapoole, kuna majade nõudlus on ettevõte sõnul oodatust pehmem ja koos kõrgemate kuludega survestab marginaale
Company does not expect to hit its 20% long term gross margin target in 2015.
KBH also warned about Q1 results; sees Q1 gross margin down significantly YoY, setting a low point for the year then improving sequentially through FY15.
Co sees homebuilding rev $440-490 mln with breakeven net income, seemingly well below estimates (may not be directly comparable to consensus rev: $772 mln and EPS: $0.57). -
Apple võimalik sisenemine kaameraturule on pannud Gopro investoreid muretsema (-10%). Tagasivaatava 190x PE pealt väga vist ei imesta
AAPL SAID TO GET PATENT FOR GOPRO-LIKE CAMERA:BBG -
Suured karud oma presentatsiooniga
BEAR PIT: Albert Edwards And Marc Faber Tear Into The State Of The Global Economy In This Presentation -
S&P 500 ettevõtete järgmise 12 kuu aktsiakasumi ootuste muutus (suuresti tingitud muidugi energiasektorist)
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TSLA järelkauplemisel -6% miinuses, sest Musk ütles, et Tesla 4. kvartali automüük Hiinas on märkimisväärselt kahanenud.
TSLA hetkel kauplemas @192 kandis
